BP Energy Outlook 2035: 2015 Presentation
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The annual Energy Outlook reflects our best effort to describe a “most likely” trajectory of the global energy system, based on our views of likely economic and population growth, as well as developments in policy and technology This 2015 edition updates our view of the likely path of global energy markets to 2035. We make assumptions on changes in policy, technology and the economy, based on extensive internal and external consultations, using a range of analytical tools to build a single “most likely” view. The Outlook highlights the continuous change in the energy system – the changing fuel mix, the changing patterns of trade – as it adapts to meet the world’s growing energy needs. It also highlights the challenge of delivering energy supplies which are sustainable, secure and affordable. The Outlook emphasizes the role of competition and market forces in driving technology and innovation to help us meet that challenge.
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BP Energy Outlook 2035: 2015 Presentation
- 1. © BP p.l.c. 2015 17th February 2015 BP Energy Outlook 2035 bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats
- 2. © BP p.l.c. 2015 0 30 60 90 OECD Non-OECD Asia Other Population Income per person 0 60 120 180 240 1975 1995 2015 2035 Other Non-OECD Asia OECD Trillion, $2011 PPP GDP Economic backdrop Contribution to GDP growth Energy Outlook 2035 Trillion $2011 PPP, 2013-35
- 3. © BP p.l.c. 2015 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Global energy demand Billion toe Consumption by region 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 1965 2000 2035 Energy Outlook 2035 % per annum Non-OECD Asia energy growth 2000-13 Slower GDP growth 2013-35 Faster decline in energy intensity Other Non-OECD Asia OECD
- 4. © BP p.l.c. 2015 Global energy demand by sector and fuel Energy Outlook 2035 Billion toe Consumption by sector Consumption by fuel Billion toe 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 1965 2000 2035 Transport Other Industry 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 1965 2000 2035 Thousands Oil Gas Coal Hydro Nuclear Renew.* *Includes biofuels
- 5. © BP p.l.c. 2015 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 Oil Coal Gas Hydro Nuclear Renewables* Shares of primary energy Energy Outlook 2035 *Includes biofuels
- 6. © BP p.l.c. 2015 Power sector 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 1965 2000 2035 Inputs to power as a share of total primary energy Primary inputs to power 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 2000 2035 Energy Outlook 2035 Coal Gas Oil Hydro Nuclear Renew.
- 7. © BP p.l.c. 2015 New sources of energy supply Energy Outlook 2035 0 1 2 3 1990 2005 2020 2035 Renewables in power Shale gas Tight oil, oil sands, biofuels Production Billion toe
- 8. © BP p.l.c. 2015 0 20 40 60 Middle East Europe & Eurasia Africa S & C America North America Asia Pacific Tight oil Shale gas New sources of energy supply Energy Outlook 2035 0 1 2 3 1990 2005 2020 2035 Renewables in power Shale gas Tight oil, oil sands, biofuels Billion toe Billion toe Technically recoverable resources Source: © OECD/IEA 2014 Production
- 9. © BP p.l.c. 2015 0 20 40 60 Middle East Europe & Eurasia Africa S & C America North America Asia Pacific Tight oil Shale gas New sources of energy supply Energy Outlook 2035 0 1 2 3 1990 2005 2020 2035 Renewables in power Shale gas Tight oil, oil sands, biofuels Billion toe Billion toe Technically recoverable resources Source: © OECD/IEA 2014 Production
- 10. © BP p.l.c. 2015 Renewables in power generation Energy Outlook 2035 Renewables share of power 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 1990 2005 2020 2035 EU US China 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 China EU US OECD Asia India Renewables growth 2013 to 2035 ThousandTWh
- 11. © BP p.l.c. 2015 Oil and other liquid fuels Energy Outlook 2035
- 12. © BP p.l.c. 2015 Global liquids demand Mb/d Energy Outlook 2035 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 2013 OECD decline Non-OECD growth 2013 Non-OPEC growth OPEC growth India Mid East China NGLs* Crude Other Other Asia 2035 level North America Other Demand Supply 2035 level
- 13. © BP p.l.c. 2015 Global liquids demand and supply Mb/d Energy Outlook 2035 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 2013 OECD decline Non-OECD growth 2013 Non-OPEC growth OPEC growth India Mid East China NGLs Crude Other Other Asia 2035 level North America Other Demand Supply
- 14. © BP p.l.c. 2015 Tight oil and OPEC balance 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2005-20 2020-35 Russia S & C America China Canada & Mexico US US Other Tight oil supply growth Mb/d -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 2005-20 2020-35 Share of global liquids growth Energy Outlook 2035 Other NGLs Tight oil OPEC crude
- 15. © BP p.l.c. 2015 Tight oil and OPEC balance 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2005-20 2020-35 Russia S & C America China Canada & Mexico US US Other Tight oil supply growth Mb/d -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 2005-20 2020-35 Share of global liquids growth Energy Outlook 2035 Other NGLs Tight oil OPEC crude
- 16. © BP p.l.c. 2015 -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 China US India Oil trade Energy Outlook 2035 Mb/d Net exports -50 -25 0 25 50 75 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 Middle East FSU Europe Asia Pacific Africa S&C America N America Regional imbalances Mb/d
- 17. © BP p.l.c. 2015 Natural gas Energy Outlook 2035
- 18. © BP p.l.c. 2015 0 100 200 300 400 500 1990 2005 2020 2035 Non-OECD other Non-OECD shale OECD shale OECD other Energy Outlook 2035 Production by type and region Bcf/d 0 100 200 300 400 500 1990 2005 2020 2035 Transport Other Power Industry Consumption by sector Bcf/d Global supply and demand for natural gas
- 19. © BP p.l.c. 2015 Energy Outlook 2035 Bcf/d LNG supply 0 20 40 60 80 1990 2005 2020 2035 Other Africa Australia US Russia Qatar 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 1990 2005 2020 2035 Total trade Pipeline LNG Shares of global gas consumption Growth of LNG
- 20. © BP p.l.c. 2015 Sources of gas supply to Europe Bcf/d Energy Outlook 2035 0 20 40 60 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 Net pipeline import Net LNG import Domestic production
- 21. © BP p.l.c. 2015 Low GDP growth - what if growth in China and India slows more rapidly than assumed? Climate policies - what if policymakers take more actions to reduce emissions? Geopolitics - what are the implications of heightened geopolitical risks? China’s electrification - what if China’s electricity use follows a different path? Key uncertainties Energy Outlook 2035
- 22. © BP p.l.c. 2015 Low GDP growth what if growth in China and India slows more rapidly than assumed? Energy Outlook 2035
- 23. © BP p.l.c. 2015 -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% World GDP Energy Low GDP growth alternative Energy Outlook 2035 OECD GDP and energy demand Other -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% Oil Gas Energy demand by fuel Nuclear & hydro Renew.CoalNon-OECD Asia Differences from base case in 2035
- 24. © BP p.l.c. 2015 Climate policies what if policymakers take more actions to reduce emissions? Energy Outlook 2035
- 25. © BP p.l.c. 2015 GDP, energy demand and carbon emissions 100 200 300 400 500 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 GDP Energy CO₂ Index: 1990 = 100 Energy Outlook 2035
- 26. © BP p.l.c. 2015 GDP, energy demand and carbon emissions 100 200 300 400 500 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 GDP Energy CO₂ Index: 1990 = 100 Energy Outlook 2035
- 27. © BP p.l.c. 2015 GDP, energy demand and carbon emissions 100 200 300 400 500 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 GDP Energy CO₂ Index: 1990 = 100 Energy Outlook 2035
- 28. © BP p.l.c. 2015 Carbon emissions Options that achieve equal CO2 emissions reductions* Billion tonnes CO2 Global emissions 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 1965 2000 2035 IEA 450 Scenario Abatement option Change required Replace coal with gas in power (% of total power) 1% Add CCS to coal power plants (% of total power) 0.7% Increase renewables power generation 11% Increase nuclear power generation 6% Improve vehicle efficiency 2% Improve ‘other sector’ energy efficiency 1% Improve efficiency of power production 1% * Normalised for a 1% swing in the coal/gas mix in power generation, equivalent to 110 Mt CO2. Estimates are based on energy shares in 2013. Energy Outlook 2035
- 29. © BP p.l.c. 2015 Carbon emissions: some possible options Options that achieve equal CO2 emissions reductions Billion tonnes CO2 Global emissions 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 1965 2000 2035 IEA 450 Scenario Abatement option Change required Replace coal with gas in power (% of total power) 1% Add CCS to coal power plants (% of total power) 0.7% Increase renewables power generation 11% Increase nuclear power generation 6% Improve vehicle efficiency 2% Improve ‘other sector’ energy efficiency 1% Improve efficiency of power production 1% Energy Outlook 2035
- 30. © BP p.l.c. 2015 Conclusion Energy Outlook 2035 Changing energy mix − gas fastest growing fossil fuel, coal the slowest − continued rapid growth in renewables Continuous change is the norm for energy markets Changing energy trade patterns − increasingly flowing from West to East Changing the carbon emissions path? − no silver bullet, need action on many fronts − let the market pick the winners
- 31. © BP p.l.c. 2015 17th February 2015 BP Energy Outlook 2035 bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats