1. Trends in the World Traditional &
Renewable Heating Markets
Krystyna Dawson
Heating & Renewables
Manager
BSRIA WMI
January 2014

2. Agenda
Worlds largest traditional heating markets
Growth in traditional heating, 2013
Development by type of traditional heating products
Penetration of renewables in the US and in Europe
World renewable markets
2020 world outlook - HRV, Heat pumps, solar thermals
European winning renewables by 2030
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3. World Heating Market Value
by region, 2012
Europe*
North America
Total: US$ 5,658 million
Total: US$ 18,897 million
Total: US$ 5,214 million
Radiators
23%
DB
39%
WH
74%
Japan
DB
12%
CB
2%
UFH
11%
CB
5%
UFH
7%
CB
4%
DB**
14%
WH
79%
WH
23%
CB
5%
Radiators
0%
Europe
Japan
China
352
778
127
1,360
•
Europe includes 25 countries: Austria, Belgium , France, Germany , Greece, Italy, Netherlands,
Norway , Spain, Sweden, Switzerland , Turkey, United Kingdom, Belarus, Bulgaria, Czech
Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Ukraine
** Domestic boilers in NA doe not include furnaces.
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DB
9%
WH
47%
Population (million inhabitants)
USA + Canada
Radiators
1%
3
Radiators
20%
UFH
19%
China
Total: US$ 7,100 million
3
UFH
6%

4. Growth in traditional heating US vs Europe
US heating market by volume
% Growth in 2013(e) by type of heating
products
DB
4%
CB
0%
Rad+UFH
2%
by value
8.0%
7.0%
7.0%
WH
94%
6.1%
DB
14%
6.0%
4.0%
2.5%
3.0%
2.4%
3.1%
USA
Europe
1.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.2%
0.0%
-2.0%
DB
CB
WH
Radiators
Europe heating market by volume
WH
12%
1.0%
-1.0%
Rad+UF
H
7%
WH
74%
5.0%
2.0%
CB
5%
DB
12%
CB
1%
UfH
Rad+UFH
75%
-0.8%
WH
23%
by value
DB
39%
Rad+UFH
34%
CB
4%
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5. Main changes in traditional Heating markets,
2013
Importance
Energy efficiency targets
drive condensing boiler sales
Increasing penetration
of wall-hung
boilers
Biomass boilers are
growing but still
a niche market
Gas-fuelled boilers are
leading the market
Move towards
central heating
Mature market
driven by
replacement
Visible trend
towards higher
quality boilers in
China & Russia
Urgency
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6. World Trend in Domestic Boiler
Technology overview
Sales of Non-Condensing units
Sales of Condensing units
6,000
6,000
5,000
5,000
4,000
4,000
Japan
China
3,000
NAmerica
2012 total NCd: 5.2mln units
2016 total NCd: 5.4 mln units
Europe
2012 total Cd: 4mln units
2016 total Cd: 5.1 mln units
2,000
Growth
1,000
5%
2013
2014
2015
2016
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Thousand units
Thousand units
2,000
0
2012
3,000
Growth
1,000
28%
0
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
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7. Traditional & renewable space heating
US vs Europe
US sales of heat
generators, volume
Europe sales of heat
generators, volume
Heat pumps
account for 5.2%
of sales in 2013
‘000 units
4,000
‘000 units
10,000
Renewables
account for 4.8%
of sales in 2013
9,000
3,500
8,000
3,000
Dry distribution HP
2,500
Hydronic HP
2,000
Non-condensing
boilers
7,000
micro CHP
6,000
Heat Pumps
5,000
Non-condensing
boilers
3,000
1,500
4,000
Condensing boilers
Condensing boilers
1,000
Furnaces
500
2,000
1,000
-
2012
2013
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2013
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8. Traditional & renewable water heating
US vs Europe
US sales of
water heaters, volume
‘000 units
12,000
Europe sales of
water heaters, volume
Renewables
account for 0.4%
of sales in 2013
Renewables
account for 5.2%
of sales in 2013
‘000 units
10,000
9,000
SHW HP
10,000
8,000
ST Water Heaters
8,000
Gas instantaneous
6,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
Electric
instantaneous
4,000
Gas storage
4,000
3,000
2,000
2,000
Electric storage
2012
-
2013
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1,000
2012
8
2013
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9. World Renewable Market Value
by region, 2012
Europe*
USA
Total: US$ 343.0 mln
El. Hydronic
HP
10%
ST systems
13%
Gas HP
0%
CHP/ Fuel
Cells.5%
Gas HP)
1.1%
Heat
recovery
56%
Heat
recovery
21.1%
Japan
Total: US$ 4,604 mln
Total: US$ 3,207 mln
CHP/ Fuel
Gas HP Cells
22%
0%
El. HP
44.7%
Solar
Thermal s
27.6%
El.
Hydronic
HP
75%
ST
systems
2%
CHP/ Fuel
Cells
21%
Heat
recovery
1%
China
Total: US$ 10,116 mln
Heat
recovery
1%
* Europe HP, ST & HRV includes 13 countries: Austria, Belgium , France, Germany, Italy,
Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland , Turkey, United Kingdom,, Czech Republic, Poland.
Europe CHP / FC & Gas HP includes: France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, United Kingdom, Poland
CHP/ Fuel
Cells
43%
El.
Hydronic
HP
11%
ST systems
45%
Gas HP
0%
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10. World Heat recovery
2020 outlook
Sales volume per country with CAGR 2012 - 2020
2012
2020
CAGR 2012-2020
40.0%
35.2%
35.0%
30.0%
23.3%
25.0%
19.5%
20.0%
15.0%
14.4%
14.1%
10.3%
12.3% 12.7%
9.7%
10.0%
5.0%
3.0%
8.2%
6.3%
2.2%
0.0%
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14.0%
10
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
-
10
Thousands units
growth

11. World Heat Pump
2020 Outlook
Sales volume per country with CAGR 2012 - 2020
units
growth
2012
60%
2020
CAGR 2012-2020
700,000
51%
600,000
50%
500,000
40%
30%
20%
400,000
22%
19%
17%
10%
10%
18%
15%
7%
4%
300,000
18%
200,000
7%
6%
1%
0%
0%
100,000
-
growth
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
units
27%
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
-
China
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12. System integration in family homes in Europe
Will gain
importance with
increasing
share of RES in
electricity
production
Will gain
importance
after ErP will
take effect in
2015
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13. Renewable technologies likely to be installed in
European dwellings in the long term
 Existing dwellings:
 New dwellings:
Electric Heat Pump
Electric Heat Pump
Intelligent controls
Intelligent controls
Photovoltaic
Fuel Cell
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14. Renewables sales curve in Europe until 2035
Powerful drivers for renewables after 2020
Units*
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
Heat Pumps
1,000,000
Hybrid HP
800,000
ST systems
600,000
micro CHP
400,000
Fuel Cells
200,000
0
2012
2015
*Illustrative European sales level
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2030
2035
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15. Thank you
Contact:
Krystyna Dawson
Senior Manager – Heating & Renewables
BSRIA Worldwide Market Intelligence
Direct: +44 (0)1344 465 638; Mob: +44 (0)7990 595836
Email: krystyna.dawson@bsria.co.uk
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