1. Selectively Supplementing Alaska’s Health Care TransformationA Working Discussion Using Transforming Health Care in Alaska 2009 Report/2010-2014 Strategic Plan as a Baseline May 12, 2011 Working Draft
2. Most Americans Have No Conception of the Structural Barriers to Alaskan Health Care Limited Road Network Supplemented by Aircraft and Boats Impede Routine and Timely Health Care Delivery Population concentrations in a handful of locations, but Real Health Care Needs in Rural Locales Limited Broadband Access in the State, Although Initiative Underway as Part of Federal Stimulus Package by Rural Utilities Service – Department of Agriculture Hospitals and Clinics Tend to be Concentrated and Are Functionally Overlapping 2
3. Reality: A Shortage of Health Care Workers and Rapidly Rising Health Care Costs Percent While Most Healthcare Positions Are Concentrated in Urban Areas, Sizeable Demand forCare in Rural Alaska Primary Care Includes Nurse Practitioners and Others Besides Physicians, But Estimates Are that Primary Care Physicians Must Increase by > 50% in Next 5 Years Source: 2010-2014 Strategic Plan Source: Derived from 2010-2014 Strategic Plan Percentage Annual Increase Dollars (Billions) >6B 1.6B 3 Source: Derived from 2010-2014 Strategic Plan Source: Derived from 2010-2014 Strategic Plan
4. Reality: The “Government” Cannot Bear the Health Care Costs Implied by Long Term Demographics 19% 64% 17% “Government” includes state, local, Federal Alaska’s Population Likely Will Continue to Grow Source: Derived from 2010-2014 Strategic Plan 20% 18% 82% 80% 2009 2034 Assuming “Middle Estimate” for Population Growth, the Total Alaskan Population Will Increase by 23% by 2034 – With the Native Alaskan Population Growing at a Faster Rate (37%) Than the Rest of the Population (20%) Projected Increase in Aging Alaskan Population 4 Source: Elisabeth Mercer, “Population Projections, 2010-2034: Alaska by age, sex, and race”, Alaska Economic Trends December, 2010 Source: Derived from Elisabeth Mercer, “Population Projections, 2010-2034: Alaska by age, sex, and race”, Alaska Economic Trends December, 2010
5. Sustainability will hinge on Increasing Return on Investment, Curbing Increases in Health Care Costs & Creating a New Public Private Partnership Model 5 Based on Findings and Recommendations of 2010 – 2014 Strategic Plan Needs of Native Alaskans and Rest of Population Have Commonalities and Differences
6. Reality: Cannot Rely on Sustained or Increased Federal Funding in Current Fiscal Environment Need “Champion(s)” and Outreach Plan to Alaskans and Federal Government 6 What Needs to be Done Now: Lay the Foundation for Adaptive Change
7. Open Discussion William D. Bajusz, Ph.D., ITIL® Vice President, Business Development Goldbelt Wolf, LLC 703-505-1505 William.Bajusz@goldbeltwolf.com Profile: www.LinkedIn.com/in/WilliamBajusz Cindi Bookout Director, Family Programs Goldbelt Glacier – Health Services, LLC 703-582-9989 Cindi.Bookout@gbg-hs.com 7
