1. Helping communities in Oxford to be more resilient and
successful in recovering from the recession.
Total Community Retrofit
Peter Head CBE FREng FRSA | June 2011
Consultant Arup
Chairman Institute for Sustainability

2. www.arup.com (ecological age)
• Can we move towards a sustainable way of living?
• What policies and investments are needed
in low, middle and high income countries?
• How might might we enable communities to transition
in a resilient way to the Ecological Age?
‘Green Growth’
2

3. 3

4. 4 New York City

5. Oxford compares very badly with
other global cities for overall GHG emissions
Oxford
2004
Source: Christopher Kennedy et al. 2009. Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Global Cities.
Environmental Science & Technology. 43(19), 7297-7302. (The data were mostly from 2005
although some cities had different years)
5
5

6. 6

7. Our Shrinking Earth
1900 1950 1987 2005 2030 2050
7.91 5.15 2.60 2.02 1.69 1.44
Year
Hectares
of land
per capita
7

8. Source: Global Footprint Network and SEI
Swaziland
Brazil
World
Russia
France EU
Oxfordshire United
Kingdom
Norway There are only 12 countries in the world with
higher ecological footprints than Oxfordshire
United States of
America
8
8

9. Most of Oxfordshire’s districts have
poor environmental footprints
Ecological Carbon Footprint GHG Footprint
Source: Stockholm Footprint (tonnes (tonnes
Environment Institute (gha/capita) CO2/capita) CO2eq/capita)
Worst South Oxfordshire 6.12 13.93 18.78
West Oxfordshire 5.86 13.36 18.02
Vale of White Horse 5.80 13.20 17.84
South East 5.63 12.76 17.28
Cherwell 5.62 12.75 17.26
UK 5.30 12.08 16.34
Best Oxford 5.04 11.40 15.44
Source: Stockholm Environment Institute
9

10. 1.44GHA/Capita HDI Increase
(CO2 – 50%)
+ Ecological Footprint
+ Human Development Index
= 2050 Ecological Age
10

11. THE McKINSEY
COST CURVE V2.0
IDENTIFIES
19 GT OF
ABATEMENTS BY
2020 MAKING IT
TECHNICALLY
FEASIBLE TO
ACHIEVE 450PPM
BREAKDOWN BY ABATEMENT TYPE
• 10 Gt for Terrestrial Carbon (Forestry and Agriculture)
• 5 Gt for Energy Effiency
• 4 Gt for Low Carbon Energy Supply
11

12. Middle to High Income Countries
• Transition from industrial to ecological age
• City retrofitting and reconnecting urban-rural
resource flows
• Model – London Climate Change Action Plan,
Frieburg, Stockholm, Malmo
Investment in UK estimated £220bn to £450bn by
2050
£10k to 20k per household
The Future is Local by SDC www.sd-
commission.org.uk
12

13. 10 Principles of Diversify and cooperate
Use waste as resource
Biomimicry Gather and use energy efficiently
Optimise not maximise
Use materials sparingly
Clean up not pollute
Do not draw down resources
Remain in balance with
the biosphere
Run on information
Use local resource
13

14. 10 Principles of Diversify and cooperate
Use waste as resource
Biomimicry Gather and use energy efficiently
Optimise not maximise
Use materials sparingly
Clean up not pollute
Do not draw down resources
Remain in balance with
the biosphere
Run on information
Use local resource
14

15. Community Leaders-Making a Good Society
Now 45 people!
www.londonlsdc.org/londonleaders
www.futuresforcivilsociety.org
And role of Art and Culture www.culturefutures.org
15

16. Theory - Cultural Planning
Culture Discipline and Sustainable City Development
16

17. 10 Principles of Diversify and cooperate
Use waste as resource
Biomimicry Gather and use energy efficiently
Optimise not maximise
Use materials sparingly
Clean up not pollute
Do not draw down resources
Remain in balance with
the biosphere
Run on information
Use local resource

18. Food Raw Materials
Energy Water
18 Resource Efficiency

19. Energy Consumption
IMF, BP
19

20. Oxfordshire residents are above-average
domestic gas and electricity users
Average annual domestic electricity sales per consumer
7,000
6,000
5,000
2005
4,000
kWh
2006
3,000
2007
2,000
1,000
0
Great South East Cherwell Oxford South Vale of West
Britain Oxfordshire White Oxfordshire
Region Horse
Oxfordshire households (except in Oxford) used more electricity
than the average for Great Britain and the South East region in 2007
Source: Department for Business,
Enterprise and Regulatory Reform
20

21. Oxfordshire residents are above-average
domestic gas and electricity users
Average annual domestic gas sales per consumer
20,500
20,000
19,500
19,000
18,500
kWh
18,000 2005
17,500
2006
17,000
16,500 2007
16,000
15,500
Great South East Cherwell Oxford South Vale of West
Britain Oxfordshire White Oxfordshire
Horse
Region
The average domestic gas consumption in 2007 was also
above average in all Oxfordshire districts except Cherwell.
Source: Department for Business,
Enterprise and Regulatory Reform
21

22. Potential Sources of CO2 reductions from the commercial
industrial sector
Contribution to
overall reduction
• More efficient supply of heat/electricity 50%
• Improvements to physical infrastructure 20%
• Behavioural change (switching off lights etc) 25%
• More energy efficient new builds 5%

23. 23 Balancing local and national energy supply networks

24. 24 Supergrid Vision TREC

25. Transport & Urban Density
Compact City: Low rise and high
density – 3 to 8 storeys/1.45
average plot ration/75 dwelling
per hectares 80,000 people
Peter Newman and Jeffrey Kenworthy (2006) “Urban Design to Reduce Automobile Dependence”,
Opolis: An International Journal of Suburban and Metropolitan Studies: Vol. 2: No. 1, Article 3.
25

26. Press Office City of Munster, Germany
26

27. 27

28. Decreasing Food Supply
Worldwatch Institute, Washington DC, United States
28

29. Sustainable Agriculture, Wanzhuang Eco-City
Rural-urban separation
Business-as-Usual: Agricultural
Food Production
Dislocation from the City
Access to sustainable practices
Upskilling through training
Access to information networks
Access to modern agricultural
equipment
New urban-rural linkages
Eco-City Configuration:
Sustainable Rural-Urban Linkage
29

30. Farming in
the City

31. 10 Principles of Diversify and cooperate
Use waste as resource
Biomimicry Gather and use energy efficiently
Optimise not maximise
Use materials sparingly
Clean up not pollute
Do not draw down resources
Remain in balance with
the biosphere
Run on information
Use local resource

32. Materials and Waste ‘Cradle to cradle’ TM
Drivers of Change: Waste, Arup (2008)

33. … recycling is increasing
Percentage household waste recycled 2003/04
2004/05
60
2005/06
2006/07
50 2007/08
Percentage recycled
2008/09
40
30
20
10
0
England Counties Oxfordshire Cherwell Oxford South Vale of West
average** Oxfordshire White Horse Oxfordshire
Region
43% of household waste collected in Oxfordshire in 2008/09 was recycled
Source: Oxfordshire County and District Councils
33
33

34. 34 Processes (Anaerobic Digestion/Composting)

35. 10 Principles of Diversify and cooperate
Use waste as resource
Biomimicry Gather and use energy efficiently
Optimise not maximise
Use materials sparingly
Clean up not pollute
Do not draw down resources
Remain in balance with
the biosphere
Run on information
Use local resource
35

36. Urban Information Architecture
ITS
RFID
BIM Broadband
Control Rooms
IRM WiMAX
Specifications
3D – 4D – 5D CCTV
D&B contracts
Virtual Reality ANPR
RIBA
Collaboration Parking
…
… BMS
…
Tools Form and Infrastructure Management
36

37. 37

38. Integrated multidisciplinary planning for delivering better
performance outcomes in cities through retrofitting:
38

39. Integrated Resource Management
Linking the
overarching
masterplan to
the technical
Master Plan
disciplines
Waste Management
Food Production
Water supply
Wastewater
Economics
Transport
Logistics
Energy
Others
Understanding
interactions and
feedback loops
between elements
39

40. 40 The System of City Life

41. Arup’s IRM Platform
GIS
IRM
Link
IRM
Tech.
Plan
Strate-
gies
41

42. Framework - Refined Plan
42

43. “Our vision is to significantly advance the UK’s
capability to deliver solutions for a sustainable future, by
forging practical research collaborations and sharing the outcomes
regionally, nationally and internationally”

44. The Total Community Retrofit Model 44

45. Total Community Retrofit: The Approach 45
Phase 1 – Model Phase 2 – Create Phase 3 – Delivery Phase 4 ‐ Delivery
Development local client Planning • Launch specific retrofit,
• Best practice review • Local steering group • Conduct detailed local infrastructure and
opportunity analysis community projects
• Stakeholder buy‐in • Initial local opportunity
analysis • Create delivery body • Develop local supply
• Early phase funding chains, develop skills,
• Priority workstreams • Collaboration agreement • Prioritise projects and support job creation
delivery approaches
i. Financial/Business
• Cultural audit • Assess progress
Model • Establish community
• Consolidate existing through monitoring,
funding streams measuring and
structures
ii. Community ownership evaluation
and value • P/P/C client created
• Secure delivery funding
• Select priority locations
12 mths 6 mths 18 mths
10‐15 yrs
Lifecycle – validation, replication
• Measure results against expectations, collect community feedback
• Develop knowledge transfer networks
• Develop “replication toolkits”
• Conduct dissemination outreach

46. Thank you
‘But a city is more than a place in space, it is a drama in time’