B-Focus — 5 ประเด็นเด่นเศรษฐกิจประจำสัปดาห์ 16 สิงหาคม 2564
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B-Focus — 5 ประเด็นเด่นเศรษฐกิจประจำสัปดาห์ 16 สิงหาคม 2564
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B-Focus — 5 ประเด็นเด่นเศรษฐกิจประจำสัปดาห์ 16 สิงหาคม 2564
- 1. 1 Economic Outlook Burin Adulwattana Chief Economist 1
- 2. 2 ประเด็นที่ 5: COVID-19 Update
- 3. 3 31.2% of the world population has received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, and 23.5% is fully vaccinated. 77% 60% 67% 59% 49% 38% 25%
- 4. 4 Daily New Cases in the United States New Cases on 15 Aug 21: 140,144 cases Source: CDC, Our World in Data
- 5. 5 Surging New Cases in The U.S. Source: Syracuse, metro.co.uk More than 200 COVID-19 cases linked to Lollapalooza concert in Chicago
- 6. 6 Australia Source: Commonwealth of Australia | Department of Health, Military Times, voi.id
- 7. 7 Israel Source: The Times of Israel
- 8. 8 China 8
- 9. 9 ประเด็นที่ 4: Climate Change
- 10. 10 Global Climate Change Source: NASA, IPCC, Swiss Re
- 11. 11 Impact of Climate Change
- 12. 12
- 13. 13 ประเด็นที่ 3: GDP ประเทศไทย
- 14. 14 0 5 10 15 20 25 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Thousand Cases Latest, 21,157 Daily new confirmed COVID-19 cases ผู้ติดเชื้อโควิด-19ใหม่รายวัน Source: Our World in Data, Macrobond
- 15. 15 Growth rate of real Gross Domestic Product อัตราการขยายตัวของผลิตภัณฑ์มวลรวมในประเทศด้านการผลิต มูลค่าที่แท้จริง (YoY) Source: Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council 2.8 2.4 2.7 1.3 -2.1 -12.1 -6.4 -4.2 -2.6 7.5 1.6 1 -0.2 -1.4 -1.5 -9.2 6.1 0.8 0.2 0.4 -15 -11 -7 -3 1 5 9 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2019 2020 2021 Percent
- 16. 16 Growth rate of real Gross Domestic Product by Expenditure อัตราการขยายตัวของผลิตภัณฑ์มวลรวมในประเทศด้านการใช้จ่าย มูลค่าที่แท้จริง (YoY) Source: Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council -2.6 -0.3 2.1 7.3 -10.5 1.7 7.5 4.6 1.1 8.1 27.5 31.4 -15 -11 -7 -3 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 GDP Cons'n Gov't Inv'ment Exports Imports Percent Q1 Q2
- 17. 17 GDP Growth Rate Q2 (ASEAN-5 Countries) Source: Bloomberg, Macrobond 7.07 7.5 11.81 14.64 16.1 0 4 8 12 16 Indonesia Thailand Philippines Singapore Malaysia Percent
- 19. 19 3.4 5.5 1.0 0.1 0.9 0.2 1.7 3.8 1.7 0.9 -1.1 -0.6 -0.9 -1.3 -1.2 -1.3 -2.6 -1.3 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Billion USD Current Account (Thailand) ดุลบัญชีเดินสะพัด (ประเทศไทย) Source: Our World in Data, Macrobond
- 20. 20 76.3 50.5 50.5 48.4 48.0 42.6 37.2 29.5 24.5 19.2 12.9 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Singapore Malaysia Malaysia Japan Hong Kong South Korea Taiwan India Thailand Indonesia Philippines Percent Share of people that have received at least one dose ofthe COVID-19 vaccine สัดส่วนผู้ที่ได้รับการฉีดวัคซีนอย่างน้อย 1 เข็ม Source: Our World in Data, Macrobond
- 21. 21 -9.8 -6.9 -6.5 -5.1 -4.7 -2.7 -2.3 -1.5 -0.4 0.8 1.7 -12 -8 -4 0 4 Thai Bath South Korean Won Japanese Yen Malaysian Ringgit Philippine Peso Singapore Dollar Indonesian Rupiah Indian Rupee Hong Kong Dollar Chinese Renminbi Taiwanese Dollar Percent Currency Performance อัตราแลกเปลี่ยนแปลงของสกุลเงินต่างๆ (เทียบกับดอลลาร์สหรัฐ) (Jan 1, 2021 – Aug 13, 2021) Source: Bloomberg
- 22. 22 Malaysia Thailand Philippines Indonesia -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 Percent 01 Google Mobility Retail & Recreation (7-day Moving Average) Source: Google, Macrobond
- 24. 24 01 Taliban fighters take control of the Afghanistan presidential palace Source: Financial Times Amy Kazmin in New Delhi AUGUST 16 2021
- 25. 25 01 Afghans atKabul airport to flee the country Source: Bloomberg on Aug. 16
- 26. 26
- 27. 27
- 28. 28
- 29. 29
- 30. 30 Thank You
Editor's Notes
- 31.2% of the world population has received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, and 23.5% is fully vaccinated. 4.7 billion doses have been administered globally, and 36.67 million are now administered each day. Only 1.2% of people in low-income countries have received at least one dose. Now the challenge is to make these vaccines available to people around the world. It will be key that people in all countries — not just in rich countries — receive the required protection.
- Top 5 states Florida Louisiana Georgia Texas California
- https://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus/2021/08/more-than-200-covid-cases-linked-to-lollapalooza-concert-in-chicago.html Chicago health officials on Thursday reported 203 cases of COVID-19 connected to Lollapalooza, casting it as a number that was anticipated and not yet linked to any hospitalizations or deaths. “Nothing unexpected here,” Department of Public Health Commissioner Dr. Allison Arwady said at a news conference. “No sign of a ‘superspreader event’. But clearly with hundreds of thousands of people attending Lollapalooza we would expect to see some cases.” The four-day music festival, which started two weeks ago, drew about 385,000 people to a lakefront park. Critics questioned holding the event during the pandemic. Footage showed tightly packed crowds at concerts and on public transportation with few masks in sight. But Mayor Lori Lightfoot and other officials have defended the decision, saying there were safety protocols in place. Festival goers had to show proof of vaccination or a negative COVID-19 test and city officials said about 90% were vaccinated. Since former President Barack Obama’s birthday party on Saturday, 63 people have reportedly tested positive for the coronavirus at Martha’s Vineyard. That figure represents the highest number of cases in a week since April. https://metro.co.uk/2021/08/14/marthas-vineyard-has-63-covid-cases-after-barack-obama-birthday-party-15089830/
- https://voi.id/en/news/75677/sydney-is-getting-gloomy-and-again-sets-a-record-of-covid-19-infections-700-soldiers-are-deployed-to-conduct-lockdown-patrols Last updated 15 August 2021 The State of New South Wales has decided to increase the number of troops in Sydney, to patrol to tighten lockdown To help support state police enforce home quarantine orders in the worst-affected suburbs. Later there will be around 700 soldiers involved to assist the police in the city. Only about 21% of people over 38% are fully vaccinated.
- https://www.timesofisrael.co Last month Israel became the 1st country in the world to begin administering booster shots to those over 50. As of Sunday morning, 866,315 people out of Israel’s population of 9.3 million had received the booster m/serious-covid-cases-pass-500-for-1st-time-since-march-as-outbreak-surges/
- https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/13/covid-map-shows-latest-outbreak-in-mainland-china-as-delta-cases-rise.html https://www.reuters.com/world/china/major-container-ports-eastern-china-see-worsening-congestion-after-covid-cases-2021-08-12/?fbclid=IwAR3bz1DlDVmmB5fotQtH9gOSKpTo-SkrWalMIijthaZ7gThjpq20rp6Pu_4 Jiangsu, Henan, Hubei, Hunan, and Yunnan Locally transmitted cases reported in mainland China climbed to 878 so far this month — compared with 390 cases for the entire July. Chinese authorities have imposed targeted lockdowns, tightened movement controls, and ordered mass testing to curb the latest resurgence in COVID cases. Some economic growth engines continue to lose momentum, while domestic consumption struggles to fully recover Major container ports, Shanghai and Ningbo, in eastern China see worsening congestion after COVID cases following the shutdown of a container terminal in Ningbo
- https://www.eenews.net/articles/ipcc-window-closing-to-stop-worst-effects-of-climate-change/ World leaders are rapidly running out of time to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. And without dramatic action, even less ambitious goals — such as checking climate change at 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels — soon could be out of reach. Even if global warming is limited to 1.5 C, global mean sea level will rise by 2-3 meters over the next 2,000 years https://www.swissre.com/media/news-releases/nr-20210422-economics-of-climate-change-risks.html World economy set to lose up to 18% GDP from climate change if no action taken, reveals Swiss Re Institute's stress-test analysis New Climate Economics Index stress-tests how climate change will impact 48 countries, representing 90% of world economy, and ranks their overall climate resilience Economies in Asia would be hardest hit, with China at risk of losing nearly 24% of its GDP in a severe scenario, while the world’s biggest economy, the US, stands to lose close to 10%, and Europe almost 11% Climate change poses the biggest long-term threat to the global economy. If no mitigating action is taken, global temperatures could rise by more than 3°C and the world economy could shrink by 18% in the next 30 years. Major economies could lose roughly 10% of GDP in 30 years In a severe scenario of a 3.2°C temperature increase, China stands to lose almost one quarter of its GDP (24%) by mid-century. The US, Canada and the UK would all see around a 10% loss. Europe would suffer slightly more (11%), while economies such as Finland or Switzerland are less exposed (6%) than, for example, France or Greece (13%).
- Southern Europe wildfires: Which countries are affected? https://www.dw.com/en/southern-europe-wildfires-which-countries-are-affected/a-58765861 Forest fires fueled by a protracted heat wave continued to rage on Thursday from Italy to Turkey and through the Balkans. Major fires broke out in Greece and Turkey amidst the worst heatwave in years. For more than a week, Greece has battled a heatwave that authorities describe as the country’s worse since 1987, with temperatures spiraling to 45 degrees Celsius (113 Fahrenheit). The heat wave is forecast to last until at least Sunday. From Tuesday to late Wednesday, Greece saw more than 100 wildfires break out. Turkey contains fire at a power plant Hundreds of villagers were forced to flee in boats and cars in Turkey's southwest as the fire burned near a coal-fueled power plant compound. Italy: Natural heritage sites burn in Sicily Forest fires on the Italian island of Sicily have now spread into three provinces, uniting two protected forest parks, Madonie and Nebrodi, Italian news agency ANSA reported on Thursday. Massive Flood in China, Japan, Europe
- Climate change poses the biggest long-term threat to the global economy. If no mitigating action is taken, global temperatures could rise by more than 3°C and the world economy could shrink by 18% in the next 30 years. Economies in Asia would be hardest hit, China at risk of losing nearly 24% of its GDP The US, stands to lose close to 10% Europe almost 11%
- Thailand’s new daily Covid cases stayed above 20,000 for a sixth straight day, authorities said Monday. Total cases rose to 928,314, of which 97% have come since the latest wave began in April, official data show. The government said the daily infections may jump to 45,000 by mid-September if the current trend continues.
- Thailand’s main economic planning body cut this year’s economic growth forecast as the nation’s worst Covid-19 outbreak leads to record deaths, falling local demand and delayed tourist arrivals. Gross domestic product now is expected to grow 0.7%-1.2% this year, down from the 1.5%-2.5% predicted in May, the National Economic and Social Development Council said Monday as it reported final second-quarter data. “The Thai economy hasn’t entered recession yet, but it has lost growth momentum since the flareup of the outbreak in April,” Danucha Pichayanan, the council’s secretary-general, said via Facebook Live on Monday. “Once the outbreak is contained to a certain degree, we’ll need to boost local spending and tourism.” The NESDC is the latest Thai state agency to cut its 2021 growth forecast as the highly contagious delta variant leads to lockdown-like restrictions that now cover 40% of the population. Earlier this month the Bank of Thailand cut its estimate to 0.7% growth, while the Finance Ministry last month trimmed its prediction to 1.3%.
- GDP rose 7.5% in the second quarter from a year earlier, versus the survey’s median estimate of 6.6% growth. According to the latest weighted average of 36 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, GDP should grow 1.8% this year. That’s particularly weak considering it’s a comparison to last year, when Thailand’s economy contracted 6.1%, the most in more than two decades.
- (Bloomberg) -- Just last month President Joe Biden defended his Afghanistan pullout by saying that “the likelihood there’s going to be the Taliban overrunning everything and owning the whole country is highly unlikely.” The images of Taliban fighters inside the presidential palace in Kabul on Sunday, after a series of provincial capitals fell in rapid succession and the nation’s president fled, showed just how wrong Biden’s prediction has been.
- (Bloomberg) -- Desperate scenes played out at Kabul’s international airport on Monday as thousands rushed to exit Afghanistan after Taliban leaders took control of the capital, with reports saying three people were killed. At least three people were killed by gunfire Monday morning at the passenger terminal of Hamid Karzai International Airport, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing witnesses. Reuters reported Monday that U.S. forces fired in the air to prevent thousands of citizens from running onto the tarmac of the airport, the last remaining area under American control. Afghanistan’s aviation authority suspended flights out of the country. With all the land border crossing now under the control of the rebel group, the airport is the last remaining exit point out of the country. But as panicked visuals from the airport show, there are fears that option may also close soon. Videos circulating on social media showed hundreds of people swarming the tarmac in an attempt to get on planes. Top Taliban leaders, meanwhile, declared victory. The militant group took over the presidential palace Sunday shortly after American-backed President Ashraf Ghani fled the country, and said it plans to soon declare a new “Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.”
- https://interactive.aljazeera.com/aje/2021/afghanistan- The war in Afghanistan is estimated to have cost the US $2.26 trillion to date, according to the Cost of War project. The bulk of the spending, $933bn, was allocated to the US Department of Defense war budget, later supplemented by another $443bn. The rest of the money includes $296bn for veterans’ medical and disability care and $59bn towards the Department of State’s war budget. The US has also paid some $530bn in interest for its heavy borrowing throughout the war. The US has spent $144bn on Afghanistan reconstruction initiatives. These figures do not include the lifetime care for veterans nor future interest payments, which means even after the US leaves Afghanistan it will continue to pay for the war. visualising-impact-of-war/index.html