A one-day Strategic Foresight Conference took place at IFPRI Headquarters in Washington DC on November 7, 2014. Participants from leading global modeling groups, collaborating CGIAR centers and research programs, and other partners reviewed new long-term projections for global agriculture from IFPRI and other leading institutions, examined the potential impacts of climate change and other key challenges, and discussed the role of foresight work in identifying and supporting promising solutions. Topics included: Long-term outlook and challenges for food & agriculture Addressing the challenges Foresight in the CGIAR Webcast video of morning sessions available on Global Futures program website here: http://globalfutures.cgiar.org/2014/11/03/global-futures-strategic-foresight-conference/

1. Regional scenario development and analysis:
linking qualitative and quantitative approaches
Ioannis Vasileiou, CCAFS, IFPRI
Daniel Mason-d’Croz, IFPRI
Strategic Foresight Conference
IFPRI, 7 November 2014

2. Key Highlights
• Combined socio-economic and climate scenarios developed for six global
regions: East and West Africa, South and Southeast Asia, Andes and Central
America
• Stakeholder-driven; quantified through IMPACT and GLOBIOM and linked to
SSPs and RCPs
• Scenarios outputs and methods, through close partnerships, are helping
national, regional and global decision-makers develop better national and
regional policies, investments and institutional structures
• With 240 partner organisations (..) partnering with FAO, UNEP WCMC, Oxfam,
IFAD, CARIAA, WRI, WWF, ADB, regional economic bodies, regional and national
stakeholders
• A number of research papers have been published; 10+papers (on results per
region, methods, policy guidance pathways) in progress

3. The benefits of stakeholder-driven scenarios
• Decision makers are the users of scenarios – they are involved in determining the
scope and purpose of the process – what is important to focus on?
• Regional expertise can highlight key issues that would not be recognized in desk
studies
• Scenarios have to be credible, legitimate and salient to decision-makers – if they
are involved in creating the scenarios, these goals are easier to achieve
• Scenarios are also a learning tool, training decision-makers in strategic planning
and engaging with uncertainty
• Direct involvement by decision-makers in the development and testing of
policies in the context of multiple scenarios makes it more likely for these plans
to be robust in the face of future uncertainty

4. Scenarios in CCAFS: from Phase 1 to 2
• CCAFS Phase 1: Theme-based research, Region-based influence, Log frame-based
planning, Output focused = Supply driven research
• CCAFS Phase 2: Flagship x region matrix, Regional priorities focused, Defined steps
to impact, Outcome focused, Taking responsibility = Demand driven research

5. Scenarios in CCAFS Phase 2: CCAFS scenario-
guided policy and investment planning
• By 2019, at least 5 national climate-smart agriculture/food systems policies have been
finalized and are being implemented that have been developed and tested against
scenarios to make them more robust in the face of multiple climate/socio-economic futures
(FP4 outcome indicator 1). At least 5 major regional/global organizations have used
scenarios outputs and methodology in their priority setting and policy guidance (FP4
outcome indicator 2).
• In 2015, policies tested and developed in the context of the CCAFS regional scenarios in at
least 4 regional/national case studies in 2014 will be revised in drafts that will be accepted
and finalized, or have a concrete potential to be accepted and finalized in 2016. The
Cambodian government’s CCPAP plan, signed in 2014, will be initiated with a focus on
scenario-guided Climate Smart Agriculture, with support in methodology and outputs from
the CCAFS scenarios project. At least 4 regional/global organizations will have used CCAFS
scenarios methodology and outputs to start informing their strategic planning and priority
setting processes.

6. Original approach: two axes

7. A B C D
A1 B1 C1 D1
A2 B2 C2 D2
A3 B3 C3 D3
FACTORS,
STATES
COMPATIBI
LITY
B1 B2 B3
A1 2 0 1
A2 1 1 1
A3 2 0 2
SCENARIOS
(A2,B2,C2,D1)
(A1,B3,C1,D3)
(A3,B3,C2,D3)
FINAL
SCENARIOS
(A2,B2,C2,D1)
(A1,B3,C1,D3)
(A3,B3,C2,D3)
10000s of ways
(A2,B1,C2,D1)
Choose
4,6,8..
MATLAB program (OLDFAR)

8. Multiple factors, multiple states: Andes

9. In from scenarios (global = SSP2):
• GDP
• Population
• Yields
• Production costs
Climate scenarios/RCPS: impacts on yields,
RCP 8.5 (extreme), multiple models
Out: (iterative feedback from participants)
• Yields, production, prices, demand, trade
for range of commodities
• Calorie availability
• Production systems
• Land use
• Emissions
GDP
per
capita
Linking scenarios to SSPs and RCPs
(GLOBIOM IIASA, IMPACT IFPRI)
Havlik ea 2011
Rosegrant ea
2013

10. Sugarcane yields under four climate models and “no climate change”
for five socio-economic scenarios for South Asia, indexed to 2010

11. • A first principle of the CCAFS scenarios process is that scenario-guided
planning is an on-going process that needs continuous (almost daily)
collaboration between decision-makers and scenario experts with strong
regional knowledge and networks.
• Regional scenarios are created as an overall context, and then each time
adapted to specific national contexts and policies/investments
• In the adaptation and down-scaling of scenarios, decision-makers “re-
invent” the scenarios based on the regional set, and filter them through
their own scope of relevant indicators to ensure suitability for a specific
decision-making process
Adapting and using scenarios for planning

12. Scenarios use for policy and investment guidance
Two approaches:
• 1. start with plan,
develop scenarios; test
across scenarios
(Honduras)
• 2. Develop scenarios,
develop plans in
individual scenarios,
test across scenarios
(Bangladesh)
Draft plan Test plan in
scenarios
Develop
scenarios
Robust plan
Develop
scenarios
Scenarios
Inspire plan
elements
Test elements
across scenarios
Robust plan

13. • In Cambodia, the Southeast Asia scenarios process has resulted in the
inclusion of scenarios methods and Climate Smart Agriculture in the
Climate Change Priorities Action Plan of the Ministry of Agriculture,
Forestry and Fisheries, which was finalized and signed in 2014
• In Bangladesh, down-scaled South Asia scenarios have been used with
the Bangladesh Planning Commission together with local partner
ICCCAD to develop the 7th 5 Year Plan for the government of
Bangladesh; and will now be used to formulate the NAP as well
• In Ghana, multi-level policy proposals between national, regional,
district and local stakeholders have been developed in a process led by
the CCAFS SIA team. These proposals were tested against the
downscaled WA scenarios and are being implemented. Similar
processes are planned for Burkina Faso and Niger. The scenarios
process has also facilitated CCAFS guidance of ECOWAS
From scenarios to national policy outcomes

14. • In Honduras, scenarios have been used with Secretariat of Agriculture
and Livestock to guide their Climate Change adaptation policy – directly
writing a new version of the policy in the context of the scenarios.
• In Peru, the PLANGRACC will be reviewed and developed with the
plan’s authors in the context of LAM scenarios.
• In three processes in East Africa, Southeast Asia and the Andes,
multiple national policy proposals per region, based on map versions of
the scenarios were developed in workshops with UNEP WCMC, the
implementation of which is currently being supported.
• In Vietnam, the scenarios were used to develop and test FAO-led
investment proposals
From scenarios to national policy outcomes

15. Cooperation with global partners
• FAO and UNEP WCMC collaborations as per previous slide
• The CCAFS scenarios officer is guiding a global IFAD scenarios process on the
future of smallholders to guide the IFAD strategic framework
• CCAFS has collaborated with WRI on scenario-based flood risk and water stress
maps for policy guidance in Central America through a policy workshop.
• A global report on extreme events, food security and vulnerable groups has
been developed by Oxford/CCAFS scenarios team for Oxfam’s global food and
climate justice campaigning.
• The CCAFS scenarios officer is providing methodological advice and reviewing of
the scenarios/foresight processes in the CARIAA consortia.
• CCAFS is providing support to WWF in Southeast Asia for their work with ADB
on natural capital investment, and will support capacity building on scenario-
guided investment planning

16. Activities 2015 and beyond
• Guiding all national/regional policies and investments in the case studies to
finalization; or support implementation of finalized plans when scenario
planning is involved.
• Supporting global partners in their scenario-guided priority setting and policy
engagement
• Due to widespread demand from decision-makers, the CCAFS scenarios project
aims for a training program for policy staff across sectors, with both a physical
and on-line dimension.
• A synthesis of the scenarios results across all regions will be written up as a
high-impact journal article and policy brief in 2015.