1.
IMPACT v3.2 Projections
A selection of scenario results based on the IPCC’s 5th Assessment report
Daniel Mason-D’Croz
IFPRI

2.
The IMPACT system of models
• Complete recoding of IMPACT
• Disaggregation geographically
and by commodity
• Improved water & crop models
• New data management system
• Modular framework

3.
Source: Nelson et al., PNAS (2014)
Modeling climate impacts on agriculture:
biophysical and economic effects
General circulation
models (GCMs)
Global gridded
crop models
(GGCMs)
Global economic
modelsΔ Temp
Δ Precip
…
Δ Yield
(biophys)
Δ Area
Δ Yield
Δ Cons.
Δ Trade
Climate Biophysical Economic
Source: HadGem RCP 8.5 Source: IFPRI DSSAT Maize simulation

4.
Socioeconomic and climate drivers
Shared
Socioeconomic
Pathways (SSPs)
Representative
Concentration
Pathways (RCPs)
Source: Downloaded from the RCP Database version 2.0.5 (2015). RCP 2.6: van Vuuren et al. 2006; van Vuuren et al. 2007. RCP 4.5: Clark
et al. 2007; Smith and Wigley 2006; Wise et al 2009. RCP 6.0: Fujino et al 2006; Hijioka et al 2008. RCP 8.5: Riahi and Nakicenovic, 2007.
CO2 eq. (ppm)Radiative forcing
(W/m2)
Population (billion) GDP (trillion USD, 2005 ppp)

5.
IMPACT model results
• Yields – sources of growth, climate effects by commodity and region
• Prices – comparing socioeconomic and climate effects
• Total demand – comparing commodities
• Per-capita food demand – by commodity and region
• Composition of demand – by commodity and region
• Net trade – by commodity and region
• Food security – by region

6.
Changing diets, by region (SSP2,
kcal/person/day)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2010
2030
2050
2010
2030
2050
2010
2030
2050
2010
2030
2050
2010
2030
2050
2010
2030
2050
2010
2030
2050
2010
2030
2050
2010
2030
2050
WLD EAP EUR FSU LAC MEN NAM SAS SSA
Total Animal Products Cereals Fruits & Vegetables Oils & Sugar

7.
Decomposition of global supply growth
of animal products (SSP2, NoCC)
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015

8.
Decomposition of changing demand
for cereals and oilmeals (SSP2, NoCC)
Cereals Oilmeals
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015

9.
Decomposition of global supply growth
in cereal and oilseeds (SSP2, NoCC)
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015

10.
Climate impacts on yield effect, by
region (SSP2)
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015
Roots & tubers
WLD = World; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean;
MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa;
Cereals Fruits & Vegetables
Oilseeds Pulses Sugar

11.
Comparing maize and wheat climate
yield impacts, by region (SSP2)
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015
WLD = World; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean;
MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa;
Cereals
Maize
Wheat

12.
Price effects of socioeconomic
and climate drivers
Cereals Fruits & vegetables Meat
RCPsSSPs
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015

13.
Net trade in Cereals (mmt, SSP2)
EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean
MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015

14.
Net trade in select cereals(mmt,
SSP2)
EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean
MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015
Rice Wheat Maize

15.
Comparing trade in vegetable oils
and oil meals (mmt, NoCC)
EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean
MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015

16.
Prevalence of hunger in 2050, by
region
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015
EAP = East Asia and Pacific; SAS = South Asia; FSU = Former Soviet Union;
MEN = Middle East and North Africa; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean

17.
Total number of climate-related
deaths in 2050 by risk factor and
region (SSP2 RCP 8.5)
Source: Springmann et al (2015)
HIC = High Income Country; AFR = Africa; AMR = Americas; EMR = Eastern Mediterranean;
EUR = Europe; SEA = South-East Asia; WPR = Western Pacific

18.
Thank you
d.mason-dcroz@cigar.org
For more information:
http://www.ifpri.org/program/impact-model
http://globalfutures.cigar.org
http://ebrary.ifpri.org/cdm/ref/collection/p15738coll2/id/129825