This presentation by Nick Hogarth gives information about the background of CIFOR-FEDRC partnership to analyze the impact of the China's Sloping lands conversion program. In addition, it presents scopes of the activities including analysis of the exixting FEDRC data set, fieldwork for collecting new data, dissemination and knowledge sharing, and potential research in the future

1. China’s Conversion of Cropland to Forest
Program: Monitoring, evaluation &
future directions
Monday, June 2nd, 2014
Wuhan, China
CIFOR-FEDRC joint research project
Nick Hogarth: n.hogarth@cgiar.org

2. Project aims & objectives
 Support FEDRC’s ongoing M&E of socioeconomic &
environmental impacts of the CCFP.
 To develop a more rigorous methodology for program
impact assessment (i.e. M & E), to identify
gaps/shortcomings & feasible approaches to address them.
- Assess & report on FEDRC’s CCFP monitoring program
- Identify gaps & suggest new questions & approaches
 To use rigorous econometric techniques to analyze FEDRC
data to estimate program impacts, formulate a more
comprehensive policy model, & better anticipate future
trends under different scenarios.

3. Project aims & objectives
 To contribute to policy development for the program beyond
2016.
 Disseminate results of CCFP research through high quality
international publications & other outlets.
 Share knowledge & expertise from the CCFP & FEDRC’s
experience in the region & globally.

4. Focus of today’s presentation
 Analyses of existing FEDRC datasets
 Fieldwork program
 Collection of new data, new research & analyses
 Next steps & project expansion
 Dissemination, knowledge sharing
 Assessment of FEDRC’s monitoring & evaluation program

5. Assessment of FEDRC’s monitoring &
evaluation program
 Identify gaps in survey design, methods & implementation
- help fill the gaps.
 Achieved by a combination of fieldwork & assessment of the
data to determine additional data collection needs.
 Status/outputs:
- Fieldwork conducted to pilot test M&E assessment methods.
- Additional questions added to the 2014 survey instrument.
- Expanded fieldwork program planned for 2014.

6. Assessment of FEDRC’s monitoring &
evaluation program
Household CCFP land site inspection in Baoshang
Village, Longlin County, Guangxi.
Photo by Nick Hogarth
Xie Chen (FEDRC) conducting ‘Monitored
household surveys’ in Pingguo County,
Guangxi. Photo by Nick Hogarth
Pilot testing the Household CCFP site
inspection survey in Long Se Village, Ping
Guo County, Guangxi. Photo by Nick Hogarth

7. Analyses of existing FEDRC datasets
12+ year panel data
 >12 years’ data: 1,165 households, 100 counties, 22
provinces
 Initial focus on the Southwest

8. Map by Wang Jiang
FEDRC-CCFP monitoring sites &
project focus provinces

9. Map by Wang Jiang

10. Analyses of existing FEDRC datasets
12+ year panel data
 >12 years’ data, 1,165 households, 100 counties, 22
provinces
 Initial focus on the Southwest
 Status/outputs
- Data has been assessed, cleaned & organised
- Variables defined
- Translated into English
- Analyses of 4 southwest provinces underway
- Project-wide analyses to follow

11. Analyses of existing FEDRC datasets
2010 ‘Student’ dataset
- Cross-sectional data set: 2,808 households, 419 villages,
228 townships, 132 counties, 24 provinces.
- Unique, one-time data set collected by FEDRC & 125 Beijing
Forestry University students in 2010
- The most representative sample of CCFP households
 Status/outputs
- Data has been assessed, cleaned & organised
- Variables defined
- Translated into English
- Preliminary nationwide analyses conducted
- First academic paper in review

12. Interval regression analyses used to explain household-reported survival rate of trees
planted on CCFP enrolled land using regional indicators, household characteristics & local
institutions as explanatory variables

13. Collection of new data, new research
& analyses
 Additional data collected through the fieldwork program to
complement existing FEDRC datasets
 GIS/Remote Sensing work to assess land-cover change,
biomass & carbon contribution of the CCFP.
 Additional data collected from questions added to the FEDRC
survey
 Systematic Review of the CCFP literature in both English &
Chinese
- Identify gaps in the existing evidence base
- Focus our project research questions
- Publication of Protocol & Systematic Map

15. Fieldwork: General aims
a. To evaluate, & provide input to improve the FEDRC’s
system used to monitor & evaluate the program; identifying
gaps in survey design, methods & analyses.
b. To gain a better understanding of how the FEDRC data was
collected (i.e. methods).
c. Validate the data quality with on-the-ground observations
& cross-checking surveys
d. Collect additional data needed for our research project

16.  Six survey instruments were developed & tested in two FEDRC
CCFP monitored counties during pilot fieldwork in Guangxi in
November 2013.
 The six survey instruments are:
1. Sloping land key informant survey.
2. County-level survey.
3. Administrative Village Leader Survey.
4. Enumerator survey.
5. Monitored household survey.
6. Household CCFP site inspection survey.
Household CCFP land site inspection in
Baoshang Village, Longlin County, Guangxi.
Photo by Nick Hogarth
Fieldwork: Guangxi pilot testing

17. Location of the FEDRC-CCFP monitored
counties & pilot fieldwork sites, Guangxi
Map by Wang Jiang

18. Dissemination, knowledge sharing
 Promotion of the CCFP and the FEDRC-CIFOR work through
international & domestic workshops (Beijing, Kunming)
 Presentation of project results at international events:
- “International Symposium on Forest & Landscape Restoration in
Northeast Asia” 14-16 October, 2013, Beijing.
- “Evaluating Forest Conservation initiatives: New tools and policy needs”
10-12 December, 2013, Barcelona.
- “Forests Asia”, May 2014, Jakarta, Indonesia.
 Translation & dissemination of key Chinese forestry documents
- FEDRC 2013 Annual Report of Monitoring & Assessment of
Socioeconomic impacts of key forestry programs
 Media outreach: website, blogs, youtube etc.

19.  Expand the fieldwork program
 Complete 4-province and national-level analyses
 Expand the GIS/RS work
 Multiple publications in both English & Chinese
 Inform policy development
 Expand the project beyond China: Lessons from China
- Sloping Lands in Transition project (SLANT)
 More funding, more personnel
Next steps & project expansion

20. Thanks!
Questions, comments?