Presentation delivered by Dr. Hans-Joachim Braun (Global Wheat Program, CIMMYT) at Borlaug Summit on Wheat for Food Security. March 25 - 28, 2014, Ciudad Obregon, Mexico.
http://www.borlaug100.org
4. “The seriousness or magnitude of the world food problem should not be
underestimated. Recent success in expanding wheat, rice and maize production in
Asian countries offers the possibility of buying 20-30 years of time.”
- Norman Borlaug, 1969
An Outspoken Visionary
Did we use this time to
get ready for the next
Green Revolution?
5. Developing Regions Developed Regions World
Wheat Rice C-Grains Other All Crops
%ChangeChanges for production relative to baseline year 2004 in absence of crop
productivity gains from crop germplasm improvement for 1965-2004
Stevenson et al. 2012.
6. The percentage of people living on less than $1.25 /day
fell from 47% in 1990 to 22% in 2010
Globally, the proportion of undernourished people
decreased from 23% in 1990 to 15%
UN Millennium Development Goals
7. In 2012, 1.2 billion people were still living in extreme
poverty
Today, more people in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa
live today with less than $1.50 /day than the entire
population at beginning of the Green Revolution
The number of people living on less than $2 /day is the
same as in 1981
This is exacerbated by slower grain yield
increases, climate change, resource scarcity,
salinization...
However…
8. Global Mean Wheat Yield 1961 -2013
Years to increase yield by 500 kg/ha
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
10 years
12 years
13 years
12 years
?? years
536 kg
501 kg
454 kg
524 kg
9. Global Yield Projection Scenarios for Wheat
until 2050
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
2018
2022
2026
2030
2034
2038
2042
2046
2050
2.4%/ year
Double 2010
Production
same as past
Already a challenge
1.6%/year
FAO target
100 million tons shortage
300 million tons shortage
11. Countries that have released Mexican semi-dwarf wheat
varieties or lines derived from crosses with Mexican
parental lines
Direct release Derived from crosses with Mexican wheats
12. January-April average min. temperature C°
7.58.08.59.09.510.010.511.011.5
WheatyieldYaquiValley(Ton/Ha)
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
2010 2011
2006
2007
2002
2008
2000
2004
2005
2003
2001
2012
2009
2013
y= 11.55 - 0.65X
r2
=0.75
Relationship between mean wheat grain yield in the Yaqui Valley, Sonora,
Mexico, and minimum temperature from January to April (1979-2013)
20C increase = 1400 kg’ha lower yield
13. Average agronomic performance of 5 best lines
derived from “yield potential crosses” compared to
mean of 5 checks. 2nd WYCYT 2013: unpublished
Yield kg/ha Biomass HI
5 Best YP lines 7620 1716 0.45
Mean 5 checks 7250 1572 0.46
% 5.2 9.1 -3.2
14. Crossing
Shuttle breeding in Mexico, two crops per year
Evaluation in Mexico and hot spot sites worldwide
Distribution of improved germplasm through IWIN
Collection and interpretation of
multi-location data
Shuttle Breeding / Speed
Data collected worldwide, used in centralized program
15.
16. Genotypes Sites
Data Points /
Observations
Yield Trials 16,560 28,800 11,690,400
Observation
Nurseries 53,805 29,120 16,283,850
Total 70,365 57,920 27,974,250
Pedigrees 548,443
International Nursery Statistics since 1964*
*Including Turkey/CIMMYT/ICARDA winter wheat
17. Countries that have requested
CIMMYT international nurseries
since 1967
International Wheat
Improvement Network
Co-operator Award
18. All cooperators that return data will be
entered into a raffle.
The two winners will be invited to visit
CIMMYT’s Wheat Program!
International Nursery Award
19. Wide Adaptation and Global Climate Change
Yield, rust resistance, heat and drought tolerance enduse quality;
the package to cope with global climate change
Countries that have released
the same line or sister lines
20. Breeding wheat germplasm with increased yield potential, biotic and abiotic stress tolerance,
and end-use quality
Njoro, Kenya
Stem rust (Ug99 group),
Yellow rust
Shuttle (Speed) and International testing
21. Comparison of grain yield performance of 602 bread wheat entries
retained for international distribution in 2014 when selected under
Mexico shuttle and Mexico-Kenya shuttle breeding schemes
Data source: Cd. Obregon 2012/13; yield trials under irrigated conditions on flat and
bed planting systems
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
80-84 85-89 90-94 95-99 100-104 105-109 110-114 115-119
No.ofentries(%)
Grain yield (% Roelfs)
Mexico shuttle (mean 101%)
Mexico-Kenya Shuttle (mean 101%)
22.
23. WW Heat Drought
Rusts
Yield
Heat
Drought
YR, LR
FHS, Sep
YR
Blast
Multiple Disease
Resistance
Heat
Drought
H-Fly
LR-DW
Yield
Ug 99
Rust
Septoria
Sept DW
Yield
Yield
Heat Dry
Heat Humid
Drought)
FHS
Yield
Heat
Global phenotyping platform network for
Wheat Improvement targeted at
Less-developed Country Priority Traits
Operating costs from 500 K – 1 M + / year / Platform
Precision phenotyping, early access by NARS breeders to elite germplasm
24. The world collection was estimated by Konopka & Valkoun, ICARDA
Source: M. Kishii, CIMMYT
Use of wheat wild relatives in world collections
for wheat improvement
Genome CIMMYT World No. Utilized % used
Triticum dicoccum AABB 779 ?? 24 3
Triticum dicoccoides AABB 880 1390 31 2
Triticum timopheevii AAGG 280 640 2 0
Triticum
monococcum AA 880 1520 120 8
Triticum urartu AA 392 516 21 4
Aegilops speltoides (~BB) SS 140 540 34 6
Aegilops bicornis (~BB) SbSb 14 28 0 0
Aegilops longissima (~BB) SlSl 10 59 2 3
Aegilops tauschii DD 400~600 1144 400 35
27. Country of origin for wheat trainees attending the
CIMMYT wheat improvement course 1963 – 2014
Countries Total
participants
Female
Participants
1968-05 76 784 73
2006-14 30 252 62
28. We have the means, we have the capacity to
eliminate hunger from the face of this earth. We
need only the will.
John F. Kennedy, 1961
29. Dr. Borlaug’s last words were: “Take it to the farmers,”
when he talked to Art Klatt and Bill Raun about the Nitrogen-
sensor technology. I think no other words could summarize
better what Dr. Borlaug stood for.
Farmers, poor farmers and their families were always in the
center of his thinking.
The Ultimate Legacy: Take it to the Farmers
This was, is, and will remain the ultimate goal
of CIMMYT. If we fail in this aspect, we fail in
everything we do and we would not pay the
tribute to Norman Borlaug he deserves.