The document outlines an agenda for a two-day playbook on strategies for Q4 and the holiday season success. Day 1 includes sessions on maximizing the holiday season with Google, data measurement for Q4 planning, affiliate strategy, and email marketing creativity amid supply chain issues. Day 2 covers creating a Q4 retail media plan, using Prime Day data to prepare for Q4, developing a Q4 Walmart strategy, and a panel on holistic operations for the holidays.

1. 2022 Playbook for Q4
and Holiday Success
DAY 1 - WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 24TH
Trends & Good Tidings: How to Maximize the Holiday
Season with Google
10am PT | 1pm ET
May Your Data be Measurable and Right
10:35am PT | 1:35pm ET
Sleigh Your Affiliate Strategy: How to Strategize for Q4
11:10am PT | 2:10pm ET
Bah Humbug! Getting Creative With Email Marketing
Content in the Age of Supply Chain Issues
11:45 am PT | 2:45 pm ET
DAY 2 - WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 31st
Deck the Halls of Retail Media: Creating Your Q4
Plan
10am PT | 1pm ET
How to Use Prime Day Data to Prepare for the Q4
Season
10:35am PT | 1:35pm ET
Unwrap a New Q4 Walmart Strategy
11:10am PT | 2:10pm ET
Ho Ho Ho(listic) Operations Panel: Strategy,
Fulfillment, and Forecasting for the Holiday Season
11:45 am PT | 2:45 pm ET
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2. May Your Data
be Measurable
and Right
2

3. Today’s Logistics
Kerry Mallett
Senior Content Specialist,
Webinar
Recording & slides from today will be in your inbox
tomorrow
Download relevant resources
Join our chat and submit questions for live Q&A
Log back anytime with same link
Join our poll questions - including if you want to talk to
our teams after!
3

4. WE’VE MASTERED THE
MEDIA THAT
MATTERS MOST
Tinuiti is the largest independent performance
marketing firm across Streaming TV and the
Triopoly of Google, Facebook, Amazon.
Employees
Media managed
Award-winning
culture*
$3B
#1
1000+
4

5. Some of
Our Clients
Our
Recognition
For commerce leaders of today and the future
5

6. Our Speakers
ANNICA NESTY
Group Director, Integrated
Intelligence
DOUG MACDONALD
Associate Director,
Marketing Science
6

7. Agenda
● Things To Consider When Planning For Q4
● Measurement Solutions That Can Be Used
To Define A Strategic Q4 Plan That Will
Deliver Growth
● Key Takeaways
● Q&A
7

8. Do your KPIs or performance
goals change for Q4?
● They do a lot
● They do slightly
● We use the same KPIs all year
POLL
8

9. How do you measure Q4 success?
● Last click CPMs
● ROAS
● Cost per acquisition
● YOY growth in sales revenue or volume
● Something else - tell us in the chat!
POLL
9

10. Things to consider when planning for Q4
● Seasonality/Holiday Trends
● Current macroeconomic trends
● Increase in marketing cost/ad spend
● Increase in competition
● Balancing the marketing mix to maximize return on investment
● Balancing for changes in buyers behavior across points of sale: In Store vs. Online
Q4
October November December
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11. 11
Analyzes sales patterns over time and
determine contribution to sales across key
inputs ( media channels, promotions etc...)
Changes in efficiency and performance -
CPA, ROAS, CPC
Optimize budget allocation and forecast
future sales across spend scenarios
WHAT
HAS HAPPENED?
WHY
IT HAPPENED?
WHAT
DO I DO ABOUT IT?
Marketing effectiveness / efficiency and
base trends are calculated to explain
volume change
Provide tangible recommendations
to optimize future marketing plans
Decompose engagement and product
interest to understand volumetric impacts
of marketing / operational activities
Questions To Ask When Developing A Q4 Plan Using Data
And Analytics

12. Measurement Solutions That Help Inform Q4 Strategy
And Monitor Performance
Pre
● Evaluating performance prior year Q4 and
prior months leading up to Q4.
● Quantifying the contribution from holiday
during prior Q4.
● Testing media mix scenarios to determine
what is most optimal for your brand.
● Setting holiday goals based on media
investment
During
● Tracking performance against goal
● Monthly refresh
Post
● Evaluating Q4 performance. Setting Q1 goals
Pre
● Compare change in attribution during holiday
vs. non holiday periods.
● Determine the ranking of channel
effectiveness during the holiday season.
● Determine which channels drove high value
customers during the holiday season.
● Determine which channels drove new
customers during the holiday season.
● Determine which channels were most
effective online vs. in store
During & Post
● Daily, weekly or monthly tracking of
contribution across channels vs. spend
allocation
Pre
● Using experimental frameworks to test, learn
and measure the impact/lift associated with
budget shifts, starts/stops, promos, new
product/services
During & Post
● Measure lift from the increase in budget and
changes in investment across the funnel
during holiday season using synthetic
controls.
Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM) Multi Touch Attribution (MTA) Incrementality Testing
12

13. Marketing Mix
Modeling
Marketing Impact,
Response Curves,
Budget Optimization
& Scenario Testing
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14. 14
Media Activity:
Channel Level
(Paid search, Social
etc...)
Operational
Activity
Promotions, product
launch etc..)
External Factors
(Unemployment rate,
Competitor Spend,
COVID etc..)
Sales Units or
Sales Revenue
TARGET MODEL DRIVERS
DATA REQUIREMENTS MODEL REQUIREMENTS
Minimum of
1-3 YEARs
of historical data
MARKETING MIX MODEL
Review and assess
historical performance
Future forecasts
Evaluate current
marketing initiatives
What if analysis
Optimize spend across
media channels
Ongoing evaluation
Evaluates past marketing performance to measure how media channels drives sales to determine “true” marketing ROI
and optimal mix of media activity. Delivers multi channel attribution measurement
Marketing Mix Modeling Overview

15. Current
View
Post MMM
View
OPTIMIZE
Marketing Mix Models Help Us To Assess Opportunities
For Growth And Identify Areas Where We Can
Improve Efficiency In Q4
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● What is the optimal mix of media
in Q4?
● How much should we change our
level and allocation of our media
investment to increase ROI in Q4?
● How should we be adapting our
budget allocation strategy based
on seasonal trends of Q4?
● What media investment is needed
in Q4 to generate a 10% lift in sales
YoY?
Econometric models are used to
decompose the contribution of Media
MARKETING MIX MODEL

16. Your MMM Solution Should Include These Elements
16
Business Outcomes
● Sales Volume
● Sales Revenue
● New Customers
● Leads
Key Segments
● Geos - DMAs| Region| Zip |
Countries
● Business Type / Service
Lines
● Product Type / Category
● Key points in time
Media
● Online Media ( Search,
Social,OTT, Display etc...)
● Offline Media ( TV, Direct
Mail, Outdoor,OOH, Print,
Radio etc..)
● Campaign
● Platform
● Tactic- Brand|Non Brand |
Prospecting| Retargeting
● Upper | Mid | Lower Funnel
● Local vs. regional vs.
national
Non Media
● Promotions
● Product Launches
● Creative
Macroeconomics
● GDP
● Unemployment
● CPI
● Volatility index
● COVID Impact
● Global Events
Competitor Performance
● Media Spend
Weather
Holiday/Seasonality
Because no model
is perfect
BUSINESS
OUTCOME
MARKETING
FACTORS
NON-MARKETING
FACTORS
ERROR

17. How Do We Use The Insights From An MMM To Drive
Growth In Q4?
● Multi channel attribution
● Measure channel effectiveness and
how that changes overtime
● Unique contribution of
channel/tactics
● Assess channel spend saturation
● Explore sales response based
on various levels of spend
● Determine channels that can be
used to push spend and drive
growth vs. channels where spend
can be scaled back
● Determine the most effective budget
allocation based on media mix
channel ROI
● Test various budget allocations to
forecast future performance and
determine which plan provides the
best return on investment over time
ATTRIBUTION
SATURATION & DIMINISHING
RETURNS ASSESSMENT
OPTIMIZATION AND FORECASTING
17

18. Multi-Touch
Attribution
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19. 19
Multi-Touch Attribution Overview
This is achieved by mapping out the customer journey, and each step in that journey, that leads to a conversion.
Relationships are examined between them to estimate the unique contribution each step has in the conversion path.
Delivers multi touch attribution measurement beyond traditional last-click attribution.
Media Activity - Individual Level
(Paid search, Social etc...)
Sales Units or
Sales Revenue
MOBIUS: DATA REQUIREMENTS MOBIUS: MODEL REQUIREMENTS
Minimum of
1 MONTH
of historical data
TARGET MODEL DRIVERS
MULTI-TOUCH ATTRIBUTION MODEL
Review and assess
historical attribution
Ongoing evaluation
Evaluate salience of channels
in customer segments
Future optimization
Evaluate top converting
paths
Future execution

20. Assessing Changes In Unique Contribution During The
Holiday Season
20

21. What Are The Top Converting Customer Journeys In Q4?
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22. Incrementality
Testing
22
TEST
CONTROL
INCREMENTALITY

23. Incrementality Solutions Can Solve for Many Challenges
INCREASE/DECREASE
IN MEDIA SPEND
CAMPAIGN EFFECTIVENESS;
UPPER FUNNEL TACTIC
EFFECTIVENESS
CREATIVE, MESSAGING,
OFFERS
EXPANSION TO NEW
MEDIA CHANNELS &
NEW PRODUCT LINES
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THIS EXPERIMENTAL FRAMEWORK ALLOWS US MEASURE AND QUANTIFY THE IMPACT OF:
Be more informed about impact of
changes in budgets, which helps
improve optimization efforts
Measure the impact on sales;
analyze what is driving the strongest
response across audience segments
Using data to inform how
effective changes in messaging
and/or creative is at reaching
target audience
Test the impact of a new media
channel, new product lines and
leverage insights to scale
investment. Ongoing measurement
of impact of changes in advertising

24. GEO MATCH MARKET GEO / AUDIENCE SPLIT MARKET SYNTHETIC CONTROL
Incrementality Measurement Types We Can Leverage In Q4
● In this measurement approach the test or
exposed group is a specific market(s).
● The remaining markets would be evaluated
to determine if there is a single market or
group of markets that is comparable to the
exposed group (a “match”).
● We will use the difference between the
matched markets to determine if there was
a statistically significant incremental lift
due to the intervention.
● In this measurement approach we split the
audiences and/or markets - DMA, State,
City or Zip level geos into randomized,
comparable groups
● This is dependent on the ability to execute
media at the specified audience and geo
level.
● The test group would be exposed to the
intervention, while the control group would
remain business as usual.
● This approach is used if we are unable to
define a balanced test/control group, or
execute media on the geo/audience
grouping approaches described.
● We will develop a predictive model based
upon historical data before the intervention
or change in strategy.
● The model will be used as a synthetic
control to help us predict what the
performance would have been if there was
no intervention.
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TEST CONTROL
TEST CONTROL
Recommended

25. Causal Analysis Using A Synthetic Control Enables Always
On Incrementality Measurement
Why Synthetic Incrementality Design? What insights can be gained from synthetic incrementality?
● A synthetic control framework is:
○ Always-On
○ Non-disruptive
○ Privacy robust (no user level data needed)
○ Reduces test contamination
● What media channel is driving the largest share of incremental
sales?
● An “always on” measurement framework can track
the effects of changes to the following:
○ Budgets
○ Bids
○ Targeting Type (Branded, Category,
Conquesting)
○ Product Focuses
○ Placement Types
○ Total Investment Strategy (ads on or off)
● How do increase spend on non-brand campaigns impact
incremental sales?
● How do pullbacks on brand spend impact total sales?
● Are there certain products that drive more incremental sales for
the brand?
● What is the threshold for bid increases to impact sales?
● How does digital investment impact total incremental sales
(in-store & ecomm)?
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26. Agile incremental approach that provides granular
insights
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1. TRAIN
Start Day
2. PREDICT 3. MEASURE
Synthetic
Control

27. Key Takeaways
1. Different analytics solutions answer different,
but valid, questions for your business
performance in Q4
2. Help your decision-making process with the
question: “If I have this data, what can I do
with it to drive results?”
3. Combining multiple measurement tools gives a
more robust view of your performance than
any single measurement technique can
achieve alone.
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28. Schedule Your
Consultation
with an Analytics
Expert
28

29. Q&A
ANNICA NESTY
Group Director, Integrated
Intelligence
DOUG MACDONALD
Associate Director,
Marketing Science
29

30. 30
Stay informed
on the future of
digital marketing
Visit our new content hub
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31. Thank you!
31

32. 2022 Playbook for Q4
and Holiday Success
DAY 1 - WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 24TH
Trends & Good Tidings: How to Maximize the Holiday
Season with Google
10am PT | 1pm ET
May Your Data be Measurable and Right
10:35am PT | 1:35pm ET
Sleigh Your Affiliate Strategy: How to Strategize for Q4
11:10am PT | 2:10pm ET
Bah Humbug! Getting Creative With Email Marketing
Content in the Age of Supply Chain Issues
11:45 am PT | 2:45 pm ET
DAY 2 - WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 31st
Deck the Halls of Retail Media: Creating Your Q4
Plan
10am PT | 1pm ET
How to Use Prime Day Data to Prepare for the Q4
Season
10:35am PT | 1:35pm ET
Unwrap a New Q4 Walmart Strategy
11:10am PT | 2:10pm ET
Ho Ho Ho(listic) Operations Panel: Strategy,
Fulfillment, and Forecasting for the Holiday Season
11:45 am PT | 2:45 pm ET
32