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Drivers of change in the Blue Nile Basin
                                                                                                                                                           by Matthew McCartney and Tilahun Amede

Water and agriculture are central to economic development and poverty 
alleviation in Ethiopia. Drivers of change pose great challenges as well as 
substantial opportunities for dynamic and sustained progress.   



 Current situation
 In Ethiopia, 35 million people (40% of population) live in acute poverty 
 In Ethiopia 35 million people (40% of population) live in acute poverty
 and 5‐6 million need food support annually 
 Locally:
 • Rural poor are marginalized small holders                                                                                                                 Environment/Climate Change
 • Reliant on rainfed agriculture
 • Short of land (farm size, quality and security of access)                                                                                                 Increased variability in climate increases vulnerability of the poor 
 • Lack access to reliable water supply (and other inputs)
 • Low levels of agricultural productivity                                                                                                                   Locally:
 • Extremely vulnerable to hydrological variability                     But significant water resources                                                      • Farmers choices more difficult
                                                                        (125 Bm3 = 1,400 m3 per capita)                                                      • Increased vulnerability
 Nationally:                                                            available to contribute to                                                           • Possible need to change livelihood strategies (e.g. croppers to livestock)
 • Land degradation is excessive (1.9 Bt topsoil lost annually)         development
 • Low levels of hydraulic infrastructure                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Basin average irrigation requirement

 • Low levels of irrigation (640 ha out of potential > 5 million)                                                                                                     y
                                                                                                                                                             Nationally:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          12,000   1983‐2012: 8,244




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 ation 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2021‐2050: 8,491




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Requirment  (m 3ha ‐1 )
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          11,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          11 000   2071 2100: 9,726
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2071‐2100: 9 726




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Average annual irriga
 • Hydrological variability costs economy 1/3 growth                                                                                                         • Considerable uncertainty about the impacts of CC                                                           10,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           9,000
                                                                                                                                                             • Area suitable for rainfed agriculture may decline                                                           8,000

                                                                                                                                                             • Adaptation strategies are essential                                                                         7,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           6,000
                                                                                                                                                             • Investment in water infrastructure (e.g. storage) critical                                                      1980     2000     2020      2040     2060    2080    2100


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Simulated change in irrigation water 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          requirement in the Blue Nile Basin 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          under a mid‐range  climate scenario  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          (A1B) (1983‐2100)

 Demographic/Societal
 Population growth in Ethiopia is 3.2% per year
 Locally:
 • More mouths to feed
 • Increased fragmentation of land
 • Expansion to increasingly marginal land                                                                                                                   Political/Institutional/Legal
 • More competition for scarce water and other natural resources
 • Impedes the economic well being of households                                                       Ethiopia Population
                                                                                                                                                             Since 1988, gradual shift from controlled to more market‐oriented economy
                                                                                            180
                                                                    Population (millions)




 Nationally:                                                                                160
                                                                                            140                                                              Locally:
 • Agricultural land is overcrowded and over-cultivated                                     120
                                                                                                                                                             • Considerable changes in prices of foods and consumer goods
                                                                                            100
 • Health infrastructure is not keeping pace with pop. growth                                80                                                              • Increased opportunities for off-farm activities
                                                                                                                   Current population 90 million
 • Energy demand is growing rapidly                                                          60
                                                                                             40                                                              • Land ownership vested entirely in the state; security of tenure unclear
 • Economic and social indicators are declining                                               1980   2000   2020   2040     2060     2080    2100   2120
                                                                                                                                                             • Uptake of technologies and practices affected by tenure
                                                                                                                          Forecast


                                                                                                                                                             Nationally:
                                                                                                                                                             • Ethiopian state is dominating force in defining access, distribution and tenure of land
                                                                                                                                                             • Internal market liberalization and devaluation of currency y
                                                                                                                                                             • 10 years of negotiation have, so far, failed to deliver a comprehensive
                                                                                                                                                                agreement on managing Nile water (Egypt and Sudan yet to sign Nile pact)
                                                                                                                                                             • Unilateral development of upstream water resources (e.g. Renaissance Dam)
                                                                                                                                                             • Considerable uncertainty about future political direction



Economic/Trade (Globalization) 
Ethiopia is increasingly interlinked to the rest of the World 
                                                                Comparison of  foreign & domestic 
Locally:
                                                                ag investment  in Oromia State
• Increased demand for agricultural products
                                                                                                                                                              Technological Innovations 
• Employment opportunities                                                 Area (ha)   Projects
• Disproportionately benefits those with assets                 Domestic 149,148,      2,750
                                                                                        ,
• Benefits greatest in areas with infrastructure/communications Foreign    1,444,308 1,001
• Risk of increased marginalization of the poor                                                                                                               The Information and communications revolution in Africa boosts growth
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Voice coverage gaps in Ethiopia 
Nationally:                                                                                                                                                   Locally:
• Greater opportunity for economic growth                                                                                                                     • Increasing access to telecommunications                                                                                                    5% 10%


• Ethiopia commodity exchange facilitates food trade and agricultural investment                                                                              • Better informed farmers are able to make better choices
• Niche overseas markets (e.g. for teff/coffee/flowers)                                                                                                       • Need to ensure information tailored to farmers needs
• Higher risks associated with fluctuations in global financial systems                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  85%

• Risk of domestic markets being flooded with world market commodities
• Foreign Direct Investment in land (and water)                                                                                                               Nationally:                                                                 Existing coverage                                             Efficient market gap    Coverage gap 


                                                                                                                                                              • Voice services expanding rapidly but internet more slowly
                                                                                                                                                              • In Ethiopia on ly one provider so no competition and prices still relatively high
                                                                                                                                                              • Investment required for expansion of “backbone network” for internet

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Drivers of change in the Blue Nile Basin

  • 1. Drivers of change in the Blue Nile Basin by Matthew McCartney and Tilahun Amede Water and agriculture are central to economic development and poverty  alleviation in Ethiopia. Drivers of change pose great challenges as well as  substantial opportunities for dynamic and sustained progress.    Current situation In Ethiopia, 35 million people (40% of population) live in acute poverty  In Ethiopia 35 million people (40% of population) live in acute poverty and 5‐6 million need food support annually  Locally: • Rural poor are marginalized small holders Environment/Climate Change • Reliant on rainfed agriculture • Short of land (farm size, quality and security of access) Increased variability in climate increases vulnerability of the poor  • Lack access to reliable water supply (and other inputs) • Low levels of agricultural productivity Locally: • Extremely vulnerable to hydrological variability But significant water resources • Farmers choices more difficult (125 Bm3 = 1,400 m3 per capita) • Increased vulnerability Nationally: available to contribute to • Possible need to change livelihood strategies (e.g. croppers to livestock) • Land degradation is excessive (1.9 Bt topsoil lost annually) development • Low levels of hydraulic infrastructure Basin average irrigation requirement • Low levels of irrigation (640 ha out of potential > 5 million) y Nationally: 12,000 1983‐2012: 8,244 ation  2021‐2050: 8,491 Requirment  (m 3ha ‐1 ) 11,000 11 000 2071 2100: 9,726 2071‐2100: 9 726 Average annual irriga • Hydrological variability costs economy 1/3 growth • Considerable uncertainty about the impacts of CC 10,000 9,000 • Area suitable for rainfed agriculture may decline 8,000 • Adaptation strategies are essential 7,000 6,000 • Investment in water infrastructure (e.g. storage) critical 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Simulated change in irrigation water  requirement in the Blue Nile Basin  under a mid‐range  climate scenario   (A1B) (1983‐2100) Demographic/Societal Population growth in Ethiopia is 3.2% per year Locally: • More mouths to feed • Increased fragmentation of land • Expansion to increasingly marginal land Political/Institutional/Legal • More competition for scarce water and other natural resources • Impedes the economic well being of households Ethiopia Population Since 1988, gradual shift from controlled to more market‐oriented economy 180 Population (millions) Nationally: 160 140 Locally: • Agricultural land is overcrowded and over-cultivated 120 • Considerable changes in prices of foods and consumer goods 100 • Health infrastructure is not keeping pace with pop. growth 80 • Increased opportunities for off-farm activities Current population 90 million • Energy demand is growing rapidly 60 40 • Land ownership vested entirely in the state; security of tenure unclear • Economic and social indicators are declining 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120 • Uptake of technologies and practices affected by tenure Forecast Nationally: • Ethiopian state is dominating force in defining access, distribution and tenure of land • Internal market liberalization and devaluation of currency y • 10 years of negotiation have, so far, failed to deliver a comprehensive agreement on managing Nile water (Egypt and Sudan yet to sign Nile pact) • Unilateral development of upstream water resources (e.g. Renaissance Dam) • Considerable uncertainty about future political direction Economic/Trade (Globalization)  Ethiopia is increasingly interlinked to the rest of the World  Comparison of  foreign & domestic  Locally: ag investment  in Oromia State • Increased demand for agricultural products Technological Innovations  • Employment opportunities Area (ha) Projects • Disproportionately benefits those with assets Domestic 149,148, 2,750 , • Benefits greatest in areas with infrastructure/communications Foreign 1,444,308 1,001 • Risk of increased marginalization of the poor The Information and communications revolution in Africa boosts growth Voice coverage gaps in Ethiopia  Nationally: Locally: • Greater opportunity for economic growth • Increasing access to telecommunications 5% 10% • Ethiopia commodity exchange facilitates food trade and agricultural investment • Better informed farmers are able to make better choices • Niche overseas markets (e.g. for teff/coffee/flowers) • Need to ensure information tailored to farmers needs • Higher risks associated with fluctuations in global financial systems 85% • Risk of domestic markets being flooded with world market commodities • Foreign Direct Investment in land (and water) Nationally: Existing coverage  Efficient market gap  Coverage gap  • Voice services expanding rapidly but internet more slowly • In Ethiopia on ly one provider so no competition and prices still relatively high • Investment required for expansion of “backbone network” for internet