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Sustainable intensification of small-scale agriculture in the upper Blue Nile Basin: Multi-criteria optimization of rainwater management strategies
1. Sustainable intensification of small-
scale agriculture in the upper Blue
Nile Basin:
Multi-criteria optimization of rainwater
management strategies
Kindie Getnet
International Water Management Institute (IWMI), East Africa & Nile Basin Office,
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Nile Basin Development Challenge (NBDC) Science
Workshop
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 9–10 July 2013
2. Water for a food-secure worldWater for a food-secure world
Introduction
A broad consensus on the importance of
rainwater management (RWM) to improve
system productivity and livelihood resilience
in rainfed agriculture
Choosing the appropriate RWM strategy can
be contentious
The need for ex-ante analysis and
evaluation to make informed decisions
3. Water for a food-secure worldWater for a food-secure world
The research question
What are the consequences of
alternative RWM strategies, compared to
the business as usual scenario?
Evaluation criteria (indicators)?
•Net farm income (economic benefit)
•Employment opportunities (social
benefit)
•Runoff and sediment (environmental
6. Quantitative characterization of Meja micro-
watershed in the Upper Blue Nile
70 sample plots in
the HRU (upper,
middle, lower zone)
Geo-referenced
spatial and temporal
data on:
Production (crop,
livestock, forest, pasture)
Employment (labor use)
Runoff and sediment
• ECOSAUT populated
and preliminary
7.
8. Water for a food-secure worldWater for a food-secure world
Results (business as usual scenario)
Optimization made possible over the
entire HRU considered (20ha)
Model results mimic reality
Baseline scenario generates a net farm
income of US$404,790 over 10 years
(2011-2021)
9.
10. Water for a food-secure worldWater for a food-secure world
Agriculture will remain major source of farm
income and employment
Farm income positively trending but not
significantly drifting
• System productivity stagnant
• Given rapid population growth, declining
per capita farm income?
• Poverty reduction role of agriculture not
dependable?
Negative externalities associated with farm
income growth (soil erosion)
• Trade-off between farm income growth and
land resource
• Is the farming system sustainable?
11.
12. Water for a food-secure worldWater for a food-secure world
Next activities
How will a change in land use and
resource management practices change
farm income, poverty, and soil erosion?
– Develop land use and resource
management scenarios
– Assess consequences at HRU scale
– Extrapolate basin-wide impact
13. Water for a food-secure worldWater for a food-secure world
Challenges
• Lack of crop-specific sediment and run off
data
• Need for concretized and quantified
scenarios and strategies
• How to extrapolate impacts to a basin scale