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Cost-effectiveness of coronary calcium testing to guide statin therapy: Preliminary Results CVD Risk Biomarker Symposium Mark J. Pletcher, MD, MPH 1/30/2012
Goals ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The CAC version of the model
Key Inputs
Key Inputs ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],NEJM 2008;358:1336-45
Key Inputs ,[object Object],[object Object],BMC Medicine 2004;2:31
Key Inputs ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Other key parameters ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
45 yo man with 5% risk Statins = $0.13 / day 10-year horizon Preliminary Results
45 yo man with 5% risk Steeper “slope” (good - depends of CAC RR) Shifted to the right (bad – depends on CAC $) Medium effectiveness (depends on # treated, prev of CAC) Statins = $0.13 / day 10-year horizon Preliminary Results
45 yo man with 5% risk Cost-effectiveness “frontier” (i.e., Non-dominated strategies) Statins = $0.13 / day 10-year horizon Preliminary Results
45 yo man with 5% risk ICER for non-dominated strategies $152,000 $57,000 Statins = $0.13 / day 10-year horizon Preliminary Results
45 yo man with 5% risk If willingness to pay <$50,000/QALY,  Preferred strategy = Treat none $152,000 $57,000 Statins = $0.13 / day 10-year horizon Preliminary Results
45 yo man with  15% risk Statins = $0.13 / day 10-year horizon Preliminary Results
45 yo man with  10% risk Statins = $0.13 / day 10-year horizon $25,000/QALY Preliminary Results
45 yo man with  7.5% risk $55,000/QALY $8,000/QALY Preliminary Results
By age/risk ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Preliminary Results
By age/risk ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Preliminary Results
65  yo man with  7.5% risk $15,000/QALY $8,000/QALY $78,000/QALY Preliminary Results
By age/risk ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Preliminary Results
By age/risk ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Preliminary Results
65  yo  Woman  with  7.5% risk $18,000/QALY $59,000/QALY Preliminary Results
Sensitivity analyses ,[object Object]
Longer time horizon ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Preliminary Results
Short horizon, expensive statins ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Preliminary Results
Short horizon, expensive statins (men) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Preliminary Results
Results ,[object Object],Preliminary Results
Results ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Preliminary Results
By age/risk ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Preliminary Results
By RR/cost ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Preliminary Results
By RR/cost ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Preliminary Results
Base Case $16,000/QALY $126,000/QALY Preliminary Results
If cost of scan =  $300 Preliminary Results
If CAC is  half  as useful $24/QALY $37,000/QALY Preliminary Results
Summary ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Preliminary Results
Big questions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
To do: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Thanks ,[object Object]

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Cost-Effectiveness of Coronary Calcium Testing to Guide Statin Therapy

  • 1. Cost-effectiveness of coronary calcium testing to guide statin therapy: Preliminary Results CVD Risk Biomarker Symposium Mark J. Pletcher, MD, MPH 1/30/2012
  • 2.
  • 3. The CAC version of the model
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9. 45 yo man with 5% risk Statins = $0.13 / day 10-year horizon Preliminary Results
  • 10. 45 yo man with 5% risk Steeper “slope” (good - depends of CAC RR) Shifted to the right (bad – depends on CAC $) Medium effectiveness (depends on # treated, prev of CAC) Statins = $0.13 / day 10-year horizon Preliminary Results
  • 11. 45 yo man with 5% risk Cost-effectiveness “frontier” (i.e., Non-dominated strategies) Statins = $0.13 / day 10-year horizon Preliminary Results
  • 12. 45 yo man with 5% risk ICER for non-dominated strategies $152,000 $57,000 Statins = $0.13 / day 10-year horizon Preliminary Results
  • 13. 45 yo man with 5% risk If willingness to pay <$50,000/QALY, Preferred strategy = Treat none $152,000 $57,000 Statins = $0.13 / day 10-year horizon Preliminary Results
  • 14. 45 yo man with 15% risk Statins = $0.13 / day 10-year horizon Preliminary Results
  • 15. 45 yo man with 10% risk Statins = $0.13 / day 10-year horizon $25,000/QALY Preliminary Results
  • 16. 45 yo man with 7.5% risk $55,000/QALY $8,000/QALY Preliminary Results
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19. 65 yo man with 7.5% risk $15,000/QALY $8,000/QALY $78,000/QALY Preliminary Results
  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 22. 65 yo Woman with 7.5% risk $18,000/QALY $59,000/QALY Preliminary Results
  • 23.
  • 24.
  • 25.
  • 26.
  • 27.
  • 28.
  • 29.
  • 30.
  • 31.
  • 32. Base Case $16,000/QALY $126,000/QALY Preliminary Results
  • 33. If cost of scan = $300 Preliminary Results
  • 34. If CAC is half as useful $24/QALY $37,000/QALY Preliminary Results
  • 35.
  • 36.
  • 37.
  • 38.

Editor's Notes

  1. Thanks for the introduction, and thanks for inviting me here today. I’m going to pitch an idea today that I think may be somewhat controversial, but it’s a controversy worthy, at least, of debate. The question is, should we give statins to persons at low short-term cardiovascular risk?