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Commercial Drone Markets - 2015 Trends and Outlook

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From the 2015 Small Unmanned Systems Business Expo in San Francisco. This presentation summarizes the major market segments and concentrates on the business impact and opportunities or challenges that proposed FAA UAS rules have for drones manufacturers, distributors, service providers, and investors.

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Commercial Drone Markets - 2015 Trends and Outlook

  1. 1. 1| @ SUSB EXPO 2015 San Francisco, CA April 30, 2015 Presented by: Colin Snow CEO and Founder COMMERCIAL DRONE MARKETS 2015TRENDSANDOUTLOOK
  2. 2. 2| About Connect: • Web • Twitter @droneanalyst • Email
  3. 3. 3| Drone roots 1936 model aircraft (manual) Andrew Snow
  4. 4. 4| Drone roots 1972 remote control model aircraft (analog)
  5. 5. 5| Interest in commercial drones Based on Google search terms. Numbers represent search interest relative to the highest point on the chart. This doesn't convey absolute search volume Remotely piloted aircraft systems (digital)
  6. 6. 6| Interest in commercial drones Based on Google search terms. Numbers represent search interest relative to the highest point on the chart. This doesn't convey absolute search volume Interest in Justin Bieber Strong correlation?
  7. 7. 7| Major market segments 1. Precision Agriculture 2. Inspection / Monitoring 3. Mapping / Surveying 4. Film / Photo / Video 5. Public Safety / First Responders
  8. 8. 8| 12% 11% 9% 63% 4% 13% 22% 19% 31% 6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Precision Agriculture Inspection / Monitoring Mapping / Surveying Film / Photo / Video Public Safety / First Responders Survey Sec 333 Exemptions by market From 2014 survey Impact of FAA Rules on sUAS Business. 297 validated respondents representing sUAS companies with annual revenues spanning from US$100,000 to more than US$10 million. Source: Drone Analyst Section 333 – 150 Specified Use Cases. Approximate since several applications specify more than one use, and others are imprecise. Source: Thompson Coburn, LLP GIS
  9. 9. 9| Question Which drone manufacturer has the most commercial exemptions for U.S. operations?
  10. 10. 10| Answer Section 333 Exemptions as of March, 2015 Source Cooley, LLP 24% 10% 6% 6% 5% 4% 4% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 27% DJI Proprietary senseFly eBee Aeryon Gryphon Dynamics Altavian Aerialtronics 3D Robotics AscTec RiteWing Skycatch Tactical Robotics Others
  11. 11. 11| Market winners and losers Aircraft must be less than 55 lbs. (25 kg) Daylight operations only Cannot fly over people not involved with the operations
  12. 12. 12| Precision Agriculture Opportunities Direct aircraft sales Maps of individual fields Simple crop scouting Insurance forensics Multirotor Challenges Indirect services Maps of large areas NDVI or spectral imaging Incumbent providers Fixed wing Aerial spraying Autonomous flights
  13. 13. 13| Inspection / Monitoring Opportunities Bridges Oil rigs Refinery flare stacks Cell towers Wind turbines Radio antenna …etc. Challenges Occlusions & obstacles Vertical structures Data capture resolution and accuracy
  14. 14. 14| Mapping / Surveying Opportunities Small mines Stockpiles Easements Shopping centers Stadiums …etc. Challenges Transportation corridors Large maps / BLOS Fixed wing Autonomous flights Laser imaging 3D imaging Data for architectural engineering firms
  15. 15. 15| Film / Photo / Video Opportunities Specialized aircraft Specialized retailers Better drone / camera integration Challenges Market segmentation Low barrier to entry Operator training Sense and avoid Privacy No-fly zones Blurry segments: Consumer Prosumer Professional Cinema
  16. 16. 16| Public Safety / First Responders Opportunities Disaster and emergency response Ad-hoc mapping Accident forensics VLOS search and rescue Challenges No night time flights Local and state laws Privacy concerns Fourth Amendment concerns BLOS search and rescue
  17. 17. 17| Key takeaways 1. DJI will continue to be the preferred drone manufacturer for both the consumer and commercial markets. 2. Multirotors (VTOL sUAS) will continue to lead vs. fixed wing 3. Precision agriculture service providers will struggle to prove better ROI than incumbents. 4. The GIS market (inspecting, monitoring, mapping, and surveying) will flourish. 5. Camera drones will continue to specialize. 6. Drone adoption by first responders may be good, but adoption by local and state police agencies will be fraught with continued controversy over privacy and Fourth Amendment rights.
  18. 18. 18| ©2015DroneAnalyst. Allrightsreserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or for any purpose without the express permission of Drone Analyst. Drone Analyst products and services mentioned herein as well as their respective logos are trademarks of Drone Analyst. These materials are provided by Done Analyst for informational purposes only, without representation or warranty of any kind, and Drone Analyst shall not be liable for errors or omissions with respect to the materials. In particular, Drone Analyst has no obligation to pursue any course of business outlined in this document or any related presentation, or to develop or release any functionality mentioned therein. This document, or any related presentation, and Drone Analyst strategy and possible future developments, products, and/or research directions are all subject to change and may be changed by Drone Analyst at any time for any reason without notice. The information in this document is not a commitment, promise, or legal obligation to deliver any material, research notes, or web content.