1. LIMESTONE ANALYTICS
Benefit-Cost Analysis of Interventions in
Haiti’s Electricity Sector:
Grid Scale Generation
Authors:
Jay Mackinnon (lead), Bahman Kashi, Nicolas Allien, Juan A. B. Belt
Haiti Priorise: May 1st, 2017
Organized by the Copenhagen Consensus Centre

2. Electricity in Haiti
• Per capita consumption of electricity in Haiti is significantly lower than other
Caribbean countries, and is only two percent of the neighboring Dominican
Republic (World Bank, 2015, p.5)
• Those Haitians that do have access to electricity through grids face
shortages, and it is estimated that those with connections only have
electricity for 5-9 hours a day
• The lack of reliable electricity supply is cited by business owners as the most
binding constraint to private sector development (World Bank, 2015, p.5)
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3. Per-capita Consumption of Electricity (kWh)
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4. Solution: Add Generation Capacity
We consider nine technologies (four renewable, five thermal)
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Renewables Thermal
Wind Turbines Coal
Solar Photovoltaic (Solar PV) Conventional Combustion Turbine (CCT)
Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) Advanced Combustion Turbine (ACT)
Hydro Conventional Combined Cycle (CCC)
Advanced Combined Cycle (ACC)

5. Summary Results for Nine Technologies
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Thermal
Technology BCR
CCT 1.62
ACT 1.85
Coal 1.95
CCC 2.39
ACC 2.54
5% Discount Rate, 5.18 USD/Tonne SCC
Renewables
Technology BCR
CSP 0.47
Solar PV 1.02
Wind Turbines 1.44
Hydroelectric 1.52
5% discount rate, 5.18 USD/Tonne SCC, 50% Dispatchability

6. Benefits
Electricity
• Annual value
• Compared with diesel
• Valued at average PPA prices (potentially problematic)
• Based on dispatchable volume
• Based on investment at the margin
CO2 Emission Reductions (or Increase)
• Difference between average emissions per kWh from diesel and other technologies multiplied by the kWh
dispatched
• Not just a Haiti Benefit
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7. Costs
CAPEX
Annualized cost of generation capital
OPEX
Maintenance
Fuel (3 Scenarios)
1: Coal and Natural Gas at US Prices
2: Coal and Natural Gas at Haiti Prices
3: Coal and HFO at Haiti Prices (Base Scenario)
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Sources: US EIA (2017a), US EIA (2017b), IDB (2014)

8. Variable O&M Costs by Fuel Scenario
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Variable O&M per MWh (2017 USD)
Technology Fixed O&M/MW
(2017 USD)
Scenario 1
(US NG/Coal)
Scenario 2
(Haiti NG/Coal)
Base Scenario
(Haiti HFO/Coal)
Total O&M per Year for
Scenario 3 (2017 USD)
Coal $ 37,800.00 $ 4.47 $ 49.39 $ 49.39 $ 226,011.19
CCT $ 7,340.00 $ 15.45 $ 130.37 $ 91.26 $ 702,857.64
ACT $ 7,040.00 $ 10.37 $ 117.16 $ 82.01 $ 632,049.83
CCC $ 13,170.00 $ 3.60 $ 84.71 $ 59.30 $ 465,097.60
ACC $ 15,370.00 $ 3.27 $ 77.26 $ 54.08 $ 427,551.89

9. Critical Assumptions
Discount Rate
Dispatchable Share of Generation
Cost of Capital
Fuel Scenario (Thermal Only)
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10. Sensitivity (Discount Rates)
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Technology
Wind
Turbines
Solar
PV
CSP Hydro Coal CCT ACT CCC ACC
Discount
Rate
3% 1.75 1.30 0.61 1.92 2.05 1.59 1.83 2.47 2.66
5% 1.44 1.02 0.47 1.52 1.95 1.62 1.85 2.39 2.54
12% 0.95 0.61 0.28 0.92 1.53 1.53 1.76 2.17 2.27
Sensitivity -15% -18% -18% -17% -8% -1% -1% -4% -5%
(S𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑡𝑦 =
%Δ𝐵𝐶𝑅
%Δ𝐷𝑖𝑠𝑐𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒
)

11. Sensitivity (Dispatchability)
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Technology
Wind
Turbines
Solar
PV
CSP Hydro Coal CCT ACT CCC ACC
Dispatchability
10% 0.29 0.20 0.09 0.30 1.95 1.62 1.85 2.39 2.54
25% 0.72 0.51 0.24 0.76 1.95 1.62 1.85 2.39 2.54
50% 1.44 1.02 0.47 1.52 1.95 1.62 1.85 2.39 2.54
75% 2.16 1.53 0.71 2.28 1.95 1.62 1.85 2.39 2.54
5% discount rate, 5.18 USD/Tonne SCC

12. Sensitivity (Capital Cost Overrun)
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Technology
Wind
Turbines
Solar
PV
CSP Hydro Coal CCT ACT CCC ACC
Capex
Overrun
0% 1.44 1.02 0.47 1.52 1.96 1.64 1.86 2.39 2.53
5% 1.40 0.98 0.45 1.46 1.93 1.63 1.85 2.37 2.51
10% 1.36 0.94 0.44 1.41 1.90 1.62 1.85 2.36 2.49
Sensitivity -56% -78% -64% -72% -31% -12% -5% -13% -16%
5% discount rate, 5.18 USD/Tonne SCC, 50% Dispatchability,
(S𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑡𝑦 =
%Δ𝐵𝐶𝑅
%Δ𝐶𝐴𝑃𝐸𝑋
)

13. Sensitivity (Fuel Scenarios)
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Technology Scenario 1: US
Prices (NG & Coal)
Scenario 2: Haiti Import
Prices (NG & Coal)
Scenario 3: Haiti Import
Prices (HFO & Coal)
Coal 4.14 1.95 1.95
CCT 6.55 1.19 1.62
ACT 9.51 1.34 1.85
CCC 12.11 1.77 2.39
ACC 11.35 1.89 2.54
5% discount rate, 5.18 USD/Tonne SCC, 50% Dispatchability

14. Policy Implications/Discussion
• Top Thermal: Combined Cycle (but may not be feasible in all situations)
• Top Renewables: Hydro, followed closely by Wind (again very context specific)
• Institutional reform may be a higher priority, and can attract more investment
• Site specific feasibility studies with significantly more primary data will be
essential to move forward
• Potential preference for “green” technologies
• These ranking are subject to change as technologies improve.
• This analysis’s main value is in ranking possible generation technologies. There
is little doubt that Haiti needs more electricity.
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15. Technical Aspects Excluded
Minimum Size
Risk around Sunk Costs
Energy Evacuation Infrastructure
Spatial Needs
Sensitivity to Natural Disasters
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16. Annex
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17. Acknowledgements
We would like to extend our gratitude to Kennol Thys for sharing information and
data about Haiti’s electricity market.
Any errors or mistakes in the paper or the model are the sole responsibility of the
authors.
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