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How are regional analyses, forecasts and re-analyses produced by Guidotti

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How are regional analyses, forecasts and re-analyses produced

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How are regional analyses, forecasts and re-analyses produced by Guidotti

  1. 1. Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service CAMS General Assembly, Athens, 14-16 June 2016 Sylvie Guidotti (Météo-France) On behalf of CAMS50 team How are regional analyses, forecasts and re-analyses produced?
  2. 2. Daily production of air quality forecasts and Analyses ( Individual & Ensemble) Global model products Regional emissions Observations Annual production of air quality reanalyses Interim (YY-1) & Validated (YY-2) USERS
  3. 3. Models Implied INERIS -> CHIMERE METNorway -> EMEP RIUUK -> EURADIM KNMI/TNO -> LOTOS-EUROS SMHI -> MATCH FMI -> SILAM Météo-France -> MOCAGE UKMET (AQUM) Aarhus University (DEHM) WUT (GEM AQ) 7 Full Operational 3 New models ( under tests )
  4. 4. Requirements – Near Real Time Production Domain At least (25°W – 45°E, 30°N – 70°S ) Horizontal resolution Finer than or equal to 0.2°by 0.2° Meteorological forcings IFS most recent available forecasts Emission datasets MACC-III regional emission Chemical boundary conditions C-IFS most recent available products (aerosols, reactive gases and greenhouse gases) Fire emissions GFAS Fire emissions from ECMWF Observations In-situ observations from EEA only (centralised)
  5. 5. In Situ Obs ( EEA) BC (IFS/ CIFS..) Extraction, Processing (Centralised) Obs to use ( 2 sets of data : verification & assimilation) – (MF) 7 individual Forecasts : - 4 Days, 10 species, 8 levels, resolution 0.1° & Analyses - 1 Day, 10 species; surface, resolution 0.1° Centralised Computation : -Ensemble ( = Median) - Plots & Data ( Post-processing) - Statistics Diffusion Data server ( soon available) Website http://www.region al.atmosphere.co pernicus.eu/ Obs to use ( 2 sets of data : verification & assimilation) – (MF) Extraction, Processing (Centralised) Obs to use ( 2 sets of data : verification & assimilation) – (MF) 7 individual Forecasts : - 4 Days, 10 species, 8 levels, resolution 0.1° & Analyses - 1 Day, 10 species; surface, resolution 0.1° 7 individual Forecasts : - 4 Days, 10 species, 8 levels, resolution 0.1° & Analyses - 1 Day, 10 species; surface, resolution 0.1° 7 individual Forecasts : - 4 Days, 10 species, 8 levels, resolution 0.1° & Analyses - 1 Day, 10 species; surface, resolution 0.1° 7 individual Forecasts : - 4 Days, 10 species, 8 levels, resolution 0.1° & Analyses - 1 Day, 10 species; surface, resolution 0.1° 7 individual Forecasts : - 4 Days, 10 species, 8 levels, resolution 0.1° & Analyses - 1 Day, 10 species; surface, resolution 0.1° 7 individual Forecasts : - 4 Days, 10 species, 8 levels, resolution 0.1° & Analyses - 1 Day, 10 species; surface, resolution 0.1° 7 individual Forecasts : - 4 Days, 10 species, 8 levels, resolution 0.1° & Analyses - 1 Day, 10 species; surface, resolution 0.1° Centralised Computation : -Ensemble ( = Median) - Plots & Data ( Post-processing) - Statistics Centralised Computation : -Ensemble ( = Median) - Plots & Data ( Post-processing) - Statistics Data server ( soon available)Centralised Computation : -Ensemble ( = Median) - Plots & Data ( Post-processing) - Statistics Website http://www.region al.atmosphere.co pernicus.eu/ Data server ( soon available)Centralised Computation : -Ensemble ( = Median) - Plots & Data ( Post-processing) - Statistics Website http://www.region al.atmosphere.co pernicus.eu/ Data server ( soon available)Centralised Computation : -Ensemble ( = Median) - Plots & Data ( Post-processing) - Statistics Website http://www.region al.atmosphere.co pernicus.eu/ Data server ( soon available)Centralised Computation : -Ensemble ( = Median) - Plots & Data ( Post-processing) - Statistics Website http://www.region al.atmosphere.co pernicus.eu/ Data server ( soon available)Centralised Computation : -Ensemble ( = Median) - Plots & Data ( Post-processing) - Statistics Website http://www.region al.atmosphere.co pernicus.eu/ Data server ( soon available)Centralised Computation : -Ensemble ( = Median) - Plots & Data ( Post-processing) - Statistics
  6. 6. Near Real Time Products • Individual & Ensemble 4 Days Forecasts: • 03, NO2, CO, SO2, PM10, PM2.5, PM10, NO, NH3, PANs & NMVOC , Birch Pollens (surface) • Surface, 50m, 250m, 500m, 1000m, 2000m, 3000m, 5000m • Individual & Ensemble Analysis ( DD-1): • 03, NO2, CO, SO2, PM10, PM2.5, PM10, NO, NH3, PANs & NMVOC , Birch Pollens • Surface • Validation & Statistics Products : • Forecasts & Analyses versus Observations • Various Scores • EPSgrams • Daily Mean & Max plots
  7. 7. Requirements – Reanalyses ( validated & Interim) Domain At least (25°W – 45°E, 30°N – 70°S ) Horizontal resolution Finer than or equal to 0.2°by 0.2° Meteorological forcings IFS Emission datasets MACC-III regional emission Chemical boundary conditions C-IFS most recent available products (aerosols, reactive gases and greenhouse gases) Fire emissions GFAS Fire emissions from ECMWF Observations In-situ observations from EEA only (centralised)
  8. 8. In Situ Obs ( EEA) BC (IFS/ CIFS..) Extraction, Processing (Centralised) Obs to use ( 2 sets of data : verification & assimilation) – (INERIS) 7 individual Re analyses Validated YY-2, Interim YY-1 O3, NO2, PM10, PM2.5 , CO, SO2 Surface ( +7 levels to come), resolution 0.1° Centralised Computation : -Ensemble ( = Median) - Plots & Data ( Post-processing) - Statistics Diffusion Website http://www.region al.atmosphere.co pernicus.eu/
  9. 9. RE ANALYSIS Products • Surface Ensemble hourly concentrations for O3, NO2, PM10 and PM2.5 • Various air quality indicators are derived from this hourly Ensemble : • Seasonal and annual mean surface concentrations • Number of threshold exceedances over Europe for • PM10: daily 50µg/m3 • O3: hourly 180µg/m3 & 240 µg/m3 and daily max 8-h 120µg/m3. • Additional air quality indicators: • AOT40 (cumulative hourly ozone concentrations above 40 ppb) - period May – July – ppb.h • SOMO35 (yearly cumulative ozone daily max 8-hour concentrations above 35 ppb) ppb.d • Identification of the major pollution events
  10. 10. Thank you for your attention Questions ?

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