How will global climate change impact California?

1. ATMOSPHERE of UNCERTAINTY
Climate Chaos & California’s Future
by Craig Collins, Ph.D.

2. Global Warming = Climate Change
BUT neither of these
names does justice to the
potentially devastating
nature of this threat.
Climate Disruption or
Climate Chaos are more
accurate terms.

3. Greenhouse Gases Cause
Climate Disruption

4. What Are Greenhouse Gases (GHGs)?
Gases That Trap The Sun’s Heat
• Carbon Dioxide (CO2)--a product of burning
fossil fuels (coal, oil, nat. gas) & wood.
• Methane (CH4)—natural gas; released by
fracking, bacteria (in animal intestines),
sediments, swamps, melting tundra, landfills, &
flooded rice paddies.
• Nitrous Oxides (NOX)--produced by
fertilizers, the decomposition of animal wastes
& burning fossil fuels.
• Ground-Level Ozone (O3)--The smog
caused when NOx react with sunlight.
• Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)--used mainly
for refrigeration & air conditioning--now being
phased-out.
• Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs & HCFCs)--the
major alternatives to CFCs.
• Water Vapor (H2O)--can trap heat on earth,
but clouds can also reflect the sun’s incoming
rays back into space.

5. GHG Emissions: Sources
Transportation
&
Industry
Energy, Deforestation &
Agriculture
California
World

6. CO2 & Global Temperature

7. Carbon Loading of the Atmosphere
Carbon Emissions
1850-2000
CO2 in the Atmosphere
1960-1990

8. The Scientific Consensus
The IPCC’s conclusions have
been getting more definite &
ominous over time.
Today, IPCC scientists agree:
We are already experiencing the
first phase of negative impacts.
Faster warming will increase
negative impacts.
Governments should act
immediately.
The potential for a run-away
greenhouse effect is quite real.
Stabilizing global climate will
require a 70% drop in GHG
emissions by 2050.

9. Environmentalists Are More Worried
They point out that
problems the IPCC predicted
for the future are already
being observed:
Glacial melt-backs, increased
severity of tropical storms,
melting of north pole ice
flows & Antarctic &
Greenland ice sheets,
changing ocean currents,
severe droughts & massive
forest fires, northern
movement of tropical
diseases, coral bleaching, sea
level rise, ocean acidification
& CO2 loading, melting
tundra. Greenland’s Melting Ice Sheet

10. Sea Ice is Melting
Much Faster
Than the IPCC
Predicted
Compare the actual
measured loss of
Arctic sea ice to the
climate model
predictions…
The same dramatic
differences can be
seen in many other
indicators as well.

11. Climate Disruption, Ecological Collapse
Floods, Droughts &
Forest Fires
Increasing severity &
frequency of topical
storms.
Dramatic loss of
marine life.
• Ocean acidification
• Coral bleaching
• Collapse of reef &
mangrove ecosystems

12. Tropical Islands’ Triple Threat
• Sea Level Rise
• Hurricanes: More
& Bigger
• Coral Bleaching

13. The BIG Worry…
Many scientists &
environmentalists are
concerned about the danger
of a RUNAWAY GREENHOUSE
EFFECT…
Nearly half of world climate
scientists surveyed believe
this is possible.
Over 25% think it is probable…&
the number is growing every
year.

14. The Runaway Greenhouse Effect…
Would be the worst
possible situation.
Once started, there
would be no way
of stopping it.
Huge natural forces
would take over &
drastically change the
climate & ecosystems of
our world.
Biodiversity would
plummet.

15. Permafrost Melt
There are vast stores of
methane hydrate in
permafrost regions all
around the world.
Evidence from the
geological past shows that
global warming of 5-8
degrees © can lead to
methane releases which,
once started, would
continue to escalate.

16. Melting Snow/Ice Cover
As vast regions of ice & snow melt to expose the darker
ocean & land beneath, less sunlight is reflected back
into space & more heat is trapped in the atmosphere.
This continually reinforcing feedback loop accelerates
global warming.

17. CO2 Emissions by Country
WHO IS RESPONSIBLE?

18. What Does History Reveal?
In 2004, China’s net exports accounted for 23% of its CO2
emissions. Thus, much of “China’s” emissions go to producing
products consumed in the US & other developed countries. Who
is responsible for this pollution--the producer or the consumer?

19. What About Per Capita Emissions?

20. Climate Disruption & California

21. DROUGHT: WATER &
ENERGY SHORTAGE
CROP DAMAGE
GLACIER/SNOW MELT
RISING FIRE DANGER
OCEAN ACIDIFICATION
SEA LEVEL RISE
HARM TO MARINE LIFE
EXTREME HEATWAVES

23. Diminishing Sierra Snow Pack
% Remaining, Relative to 1961-1990
Lower Emissions Higher Emissions

24. The Pineapple Express
• Increased frequency &
severity of a climate event
called “the pineapple
express” could overwhelm
California’s levees, & leave
Sacramento underwater.

25. California Climate Projections
— by 2050 —
• Higher summer temperatures
– “Higher scenario” summer: + 9 to
18° F
– “Lower scenario” summer: + + 4
to 9° F
• Heat waves 2-5 times
more common, more
intense & longer lasting.

26. Emissions & Living Standards
Per-capita GDP & CO2 Emissions for Major Developed Countries

27. We Are Improving
But Too Slowly!

28. Governor Brown’s Climate Action Strategy

29. Small Steps Forward
• In 2016, Governor Brown
signed two climate bills.
• SB 32 requires California to
reduce greenhouse gas
emissions 40% below 1990
levels by 2030.
• Assembly Bill 197 gives the
Legislature greater authority
over the California Air
Resources Board (CARB), to
ensure strategies to lower
emissions favor those most
impacted by climate change.

30. Public Opinion

31. It’s A Planetary Problem