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DCR Workforce June 2013 Trendline Report
1.
Winding down the
last month of the second quarter of 2013, Trendline is here once again to bring you key insights into the temporary staffing industry. Our up-to-date research and in-depth analysis of information ensure that you have a pulse of the market. As always, our analysis of contingent workforce supply and demand gives you predictive forecasts of wage trends and market status. The DCR National Temp Wage Index focuses on wage trends through the course of the year and analyzes the usage of temp workers and related developments in the economy. This month, we focus on the energy and manufacturing sector and also discuss the growth of jobs and of temporary staffing. Our next article hones in on the optimism of the Midwest when it comes to hiring in 2013. While employment gains in the area have been dismal, employers are positive about staffing growth throughout the remainder of the year. We then shift our focus to the most recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and look closely at job gains and losses in private sector employment. This is followed by a cutting- edge piece examining the discrepancy between the signs that point to increased hiring yet the low actual hire numbers. Look for our graph comparing job openings over the past year to actual hires. The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) recently made an announcement that has the staffing industry talking. We examine this new initiative that extends protections for temp workers, its implications and the considerations that prompted it. We cross-examine the information presented by OSHA by looking at actual numbers from the BLS. Keep an eye out for our prediction of what this new program means for the temporary staffing industry. Our final article this month spotlights North Carolina’s expanding energy sector and its potential job growth opportunities for temporary workers, the type of workers that will be needed and what their wages will be. Ammu Warrier Ammu Warrier, President Inside this Issue Note from the Editor DCR National Temp Wage Index Midwest Businesses Optimistic about Hiring in 2013 A Closer Look at Changes in Private-Sector Employment (Q3-2011 to Q3-2012) Fewer Layoffs, Low Unemploy- ment Rates and Open Positions, Yet Still Low Hiring OSHA Increases Protection for Temp Workers Public or Private: Which Type of Job to Opt for? North Carolina: Energy Sector Creating Employment Boom for Temps Methodology About DCR 1 2 4 5 8 9 10 11 12 14 15 REPORT # 16 | June 2013 TRENDLINEContingent Worker Forecast and Supply Report Note from the Editor Trend Line: Contingent Worker Forecast and Supply Report. © DCR. All Rights Reserved - 1
2.
In the current
quarter, the Temp Wage Index is likely to remain mostly flat, increasing slightly towards the end of June. Businesses and government agencies alike are increasingly turning to staffing firms for their talent needs due to increased consumer demand, a greater need for flexibility and the requirements of the new health care act. Automakers, pharmaceutical companies and are all utilizing temporary workers. These workers - full-time and part-time - handle a wide variety of tasks from manning factories and warehouses to working in sales positions. According to an April 9th estimate by Staffing Industry Analysts, a global advisor on contingent work, staffing industry revenue will increase 6% annually over the next two years to $139.4 billion in 2014. Research Analyst Timothy Landhuis says that the fastest-growing segment of staffing this year will be healthcare, which will grow by 9%. The second-fastest growing segments are information technology and marketing/creative temporary staffing, both of which benefit from the rapid increase in web, mobile and social media technologies. Jeff Silber, an analyst at BMO Capital Markets, says that the difference in the current economic expansion as compared with past recoveries is that companies are hesitant to hire even though their businesses are growing and more staff is required. Recent discoveries of oil and gas reserves have put the U.S. on the path to becoming the world’s largest producer of oil and natural gas. According to economist Douglas Holtz-Eaken, former director of the Congressional Budget Office, domestic energy production “is going to be a real driver of economic growth”. The gains will be reflected through more jobs in drilling and at other energy work sites. The manufacturing industry will, however, not realize benefits from the rise in energy-related sectors, as “U.S. manufacturing has become so much less energy intensive overall in recent years” says Alan Tonelson of the U.S. Business and Industry Council. Energy Sector Plays a Major Role in Global Economic Growth Trend Line: Contingent Worker Forecast and Supply Report. © DCR. All Rights Reserved - 2 DCR National Temp Wage Index “We estimate the U.S. temp staffing market is about $100 billion, so 6 percent growth in 2013 translates to $6 billion in new orders, which is a significant increase for the industry.” ~Timothy Landhuis, Staffing Industry Analysts. “The only other option is to either work full-time people harder or hire temps” ~Jeff Sibler, BMO Capital Markets
3.
As per Labor
Department data, employers added 165,000 jobs in April, exceeding economists’ median forecasts of 148,000 in job gains. Professional and business services led the job additions with 73,000 jobs, trailed by leisure and hospitality at 43,000 jobs, retailers at 29,000, and healthcare at 26,000. The number of Americans out of work for at least six months fell by 258,000 to 4.3 million. Average hourly earnings rose 4 cents to $23.87. The number of temporary workers increased by 31,000 in April, con- tinuing the upward trend. The temp penetration rate was 1.97 percent compared to 1.95 percent in March. On a year-over-year basis, temp jobs were up 184,200 in April. A report from the American Staffing Association showed that staffing companies in the United States employed an average of 2.9 million temporary workers per day in 2012, up 4.1% from 2011. Elance, a global online staffing platform, reported that 60% more freelancers were hired in the first quarter of 2013 as compared to Q1 of 2012. The online demand for workers has been very strong so far in 2013 as seen with the 300,000 jobs that were posted on Elance in Q1 of 2013, a significant increase from the 230,000 posted in Q4 of 2012. And given that most jobs on Elance are filled within 3 days, a spike in jobs posted suggests a corresponding rise in freelancer earnings over the coming months. Much of this growth is comprised of demand for highly technical, skilled workers. The manufacturing sector is showing signs of slowing down. The U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index by financial data firm Markit is at 52.1 from 54.6 in March, it’s lowest reading since October. A separate report from the Institute for Supply Management shows the industry having only modest expansion. The institution also showed its index of national factory activity falling to 50.7 from 51.3 in March. Economists believe this data indicates slower manufacturing growth for the current quarter. Slowdown of Manufacturing Growth Job Growth in April 2013 Temporary Staffing Rises DCR National Temp Wage Index Trend Line: Contingent Worker Forecast and Supply Report. © DCR. All Rights Reserved - 3 Year-over-Year Growth in Temporary Jobs Growth in Jobs, 2010 to 2012
4.
Midwest Businesses Optimistic
about Hiring in 2013 Trend Line: Contingent Worker Forecast and Supply Report. © DCR. All Rights Reserved - 4 According to a survey conducted by a recruiting agency based in Wisconsin, hiring in the Midwest is expected to improve in the next three months. The survey was administered to 320 manufacturers, banks, printers, distributers and information technology firms based in the Midwestern United States. According to the Quarterly Census on Wages and Employment report of the Bureau of Labor Statistics,, Wisconsin was at the 43rd position among all states in employment gain in the 3rd quarter of 2012. It also ranked 44th out of 50 states in private-sector job creation. An explanation for this ranking can be found by examining the main industries of the area, which have been hard-hit over the past few years. No American state produces more paper than Wisconsin, and the declining demand for ink-on-paper publishing has negatively affected paper mills and contract printing plants with many of them closing down. In addition, the downturn in real estate has caused many factories producing windows, doors and home construction supplies to suffer. According to the survey, 455 employers have open positions due to a lack of skilled workers. 52% of employers feel that the biggest issue facing companies in the first quarter of 2013 was the economy, followed by a lack of qualified employees at 46%. Asked about overall business climate, 48% expect conditions to improve and only 3% expect conditions to worsen. Most employers (69%) expected wages to stay the same, while 30% percent expected an increase. Of the percentage that expected an increase in wages, 53% predict a 2.1 to 4% increase, while 44% expect an increase of less than 2%. “This doesn’t just change overnight. It’s a product of our history. We are not doomed to slow growth, it’s just that it’s going to take time.” ~Brian Jacobsen, economist at Wells Fargo Bank Change in Employment thought Q3-2012 Employer Sentiments on the Mid-West
5.
A Closer Look
at Changes in Private-Sector Employment (Q3-2011 to Q3-2012) Trend Line: Contingent Worker Forecast and Supply Report. © DCR. All Rights Reserved - 5 The change in the number of jobs over time is the net result of increases and decreases in employment at businesses. The Business Employment Dynamics (BED) statistic tracks these changes at private businesses. Gross job gains are the sum of increases in employment from expansions at existing private businesses and the addition of new jobs at new private businesses. In the third quarter of 2012 (the most recent data available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics) gross job gains in the private sector were 6.8 million. Gross job losses from closing and contracting businesses were 6.6 million. This yields a net employment gain of 199,000 jobs in the private sector in Q3 of 2012. Forecasting for 2013 shows job gains to remain relatively steady, with slight increases in total job losses. Private Sector Employment Private Sector Firms (1-49 employees) *(F) indicates Forecasting *(F) indicates Forecasting
6.
Trend Line: Contingent
Worker Forecast and Supply Report. © DCR. All Rights Reserved - 6 Private firms with an employee base of 1-49 employees are forecasted to find a net increase until Q1 of 2013, whereas Q1 and Q3 are expected to have a deficit in job gains. Private firms with 50 to 249 employees will remain strong in terms of employment throughout 2013. The projection for the year indicates a net increase in employment, where job gains exceed job losses. Large private sector businesses will see a net increase in employment during the first half of the year though it will slow down to a deficit in net gain of employment by the end of 2013. A Closer Look at Changes in Private-Sector Employment (Q3-2011 to Q3-2012) Private Sector Firms (50-249 employees) Private Sector Firms (250 or more employees) *(F) indicates Forecasting *(F) indicates Forecasting
7.
A Closer Look
at Changes in Private-Sector Employment (Q3-2011 to Q3-2012) Trend Line: Contingent Worker Forecast and Supply Report. © DCR. All Rights Reserved - 7 North Dakota had the highest gains in employment through the third quarter of 2012, but was the lowest in number of private business establishments. Among the top ten states in employment gains, California, Florida and Texas contributed almost 79% of private businesses and 76.38% of employment. Private Sector Firms (50-249 employees) Gains by State
8.
Fewer Layoffs, Low
Unemployment Rates and Open Positions, Yet Still Low Hiring Trend Line: Contingent Worker Forecast and Supply Report. © DCR. All Rights Reserved - 8 The drop in the number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits is an indication of fewer layoffs and hence, increased hiring. However, layoffs are only a part of the equation; employer confidence in the economy also plays an important role in making hiring decisions. According to the Labor Department, applications for benefits dropped by 16,000 with the four-week moving average declining 4,500 to 357,500. Layoff consultant, Challenger, Gray and Christmas Inc. announced that layoffs by U.S. employers dropped 23% month-over-month in April 2013, the lowest level since December 2012. Employers cut 183,162 jobs in the first quarter of 2013 of which April job cuts totaled 38,121 and March job cuts equaled 49,255. However, while companies have been advertising for jobs, they have been slow to fill them due to difficulty in finding appropriate talent. Job openings for non-farm employment jumped 11% from Feb- ruary 2012 to February 2013, but the number of people hired declined. The Layoffs Of the layoffs, the retail sector had the highest number of job cuts in April with 5,897 layoffs. The largest retail job cut came from the closing of the Sears Holdings Corp. (SHLD) and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) Portrait Studios, operated by CPI Inc. Government spending cuts also contributed to layoffs, as reflected in the healthcare, industrial goods, transportation, and aerospace and defense industries (13,766 jobs cut in April). Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 165,000 in April, with job increases in professional and business services, food services and drinking places, retail trade, and health care. Employment growthaveraged169,000permonthoverthepastyear. The professional and business service sector added 73,000 jobs in April for an addition of 587,000 jobs over the past year. Employ- mentalsoincreasedintemporaryhelpserviceswith31,000jobs. Retailtradesaw agrowth of29,000 jobsin April.Theindustryadd- ed an average of 21,000 jobs per month in the past year. General merchandise stores and health and personal care stores made up muchofthisgrowthat15,000and5,000jobsaddedrespectively. The healthcare sector added 19,000 jobs in April. Within the industry, employment in ambulatory health care services created the most jobs (14,000). There was little change over the month in construction, while manufacturing employment was unchanged. Change in Employment “The economic slowdown that began late in the third quarter and is expected to turn into another summer slump has yet to result in increased or widespread downsizing” ~John A. Challenger, CEO of Challenger, Gray and Christmas, Inc. Change in Employment, March – April 2013
9.
OSHA Increases Protection
for Temp Workers OSHA (Occupational Safety and Health Administration) recently announced an initiative to protect temporary workers from workplace hazard. Inspectors from OSHA will check for safety measures, appropraite training and working conditions at every firm that employs temporary workers. OSHA field inspectors are now directed to assess whether any employees at job sites are temporary and if any of the identified temporary employees are exposed to a violative condition. Additionally, inspectors are directed to identify the workers’ staffing company, the company’s location and the supervising structure under which the temporary workers are reporting. Staffing firms and companies are required to provide safe workplaces for temporary employees, along with necessary safety and health training on workplace hazards. Although distribution of safety-related duties and responsibilities should be clearly detailed in contracts between staffing firms and client companies, both entities may be held liable by OSHA and the courts. The initiative to protect temporary workers under OSHA was prompted by cases of temporary worker deaths in the past year at a South Carolina paper mill, a New York construction site and at a Florida bottling plant. As of now only the Florida case has resulted in citations, where Bacardi Bottling Corp. was cited for two willful, nine serious and one other-than-serious violations. The Center of Public Integrity says that this is not a new problem as it comes after years of complaints from contract workers that they do not feel protected at their work sites. Research conducted found that temporary workers are at a higher risk of occupational injury due to a lack of safety training. Some findings even imply that employers view contract workers as expendable. A recent study by the University of Illinois at Chicago School of Public Health of 4,000 workers in Illinois who had suffered some form of work-related amputation found that 5 out of 10 employers with the highest number of workplace accidents were temporary staffing companies. Another study in 2010 by the Washington State Department of Labor & Industries found that temporary workers in Washington State had a higher injury rate than permanent workers. Looking at the 2011 Census of Fatal Occupational Injuries Count by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the final count of fatal work injuries in the U.S. in 2011 was 4,693. The overall fatal work injury rate was 3.5 fatal injuries per 100,000 full-time equivalent workers. Trend Line: Contingent Worker Forecast and Supply Report. © DCR. All Rights Reserved - 9 Recent Deaths Incited Initiative Looking at the BLS Numbers “Inspectors will use a newly created code in their information system to denote when temporary workers are ex- posed to safety and health violations. Additionally, they will assess whether temporary workers received required training in a language and vocabulary they could understand.” ~OSHA press release, April 29th, 2013 “OSHA feels strongly that temporary and contract workers – many of whom work in low-wage jobs and face serious hazards – must have equal protections, and employers must provide these workers with a safe workplace.” ~OSHA
10.
Trend Line: Contingent
Worker Forecast and Supply Report. © DCR. All Rights Reserved - 10 Public or Private: Which Type of Job to Opt for? Fatal Injury by Occupation Fatal Injury by Industry Fatal work injuries involving contractors accounted for 12% of all fatal work injuries in 2011. And the largest net increase in fatal work injuries among occupations involved drivers of tractor-trailer or other heavy tracks (670 cases).
11.
Trend Line: Contingent
Worker Forecast and Supply Report. © DCR. All Rights Reserved - 11 Public or Private: Which Type of Job to Opt for? Bureau of Labor Statistics data says that contingent workers’ injuries are declining. However, it seems that these injuries are undercounted. In a BLS-funded project in 2012, officials at the Washington State Department of Labor and Industries interviewed over 50 employers who used temp workers. Only one-third said that they would enter a temp worker injury in their OSHA log. According to Leone Jose Bicchieri of the Chicago Workers’ Collaborative, advocates for temp workers, temporary employees are often reluctant to report injuries because they are so easily replaced. However, many parties believe that temp workers already have the same legal protection as permanent employees. Stephen Dwyer, general counsel for the American Staffing Association, cautions against an OSHA crackdown on temporary staffing agencies due to the consequences it might have on workers, employers and the economy. Temporary worker advocates such as the Chicago Workers’ Collaborative approve of the OSHA initiative, claiming that OSHA should target employers known to make heavy use of staffing agencies. What Does this Mean for the Temporary Staffing Industry? The rise of the staffing industry is partially to give companies a greater distance from regulation. OSHA needs to come up with a different approach for this rapidly growing sector.” ~Leone Jose Bicchieri, Chicago Workers’ Collaborative “To the extent that efforts become heavy-handed, there can be a disincentive, then to using temporary workers” ~Stephen Dwyer, American Staffing Association
12.
Trend Line: Contingent
Worker Forecast and Supply Report. © DCR. All Rights Reserved - 12 North Carolina: Energy Sector Creating Employment Boom for Temps Are you looking for a temporary assignment? Well, there are plenty available and more upcoming in North Carolina! North Carolina’s emerging energy landscape, solar farms and wind projects are expected to generate several hundred temporary jobs on average over the next several years, according to interviews and studies of North Carolina’s economic potential from energy development. The state’s energy policy has enabled North Carolina to be the fifth-ranking developer of solar power in the country. A study conducted by RTI International and La Capra Associates found that the policy has been a driver of clean energy development, which in turn has been an important job creator in North Carolina. The study found that the state has reaped $1.7 billion in total economic benefits from the state’s renewable energy standard over the past six years. Based on current conditions, North Carolina would accommodate 368 wells and an average of 387 jobs per year for the next seven years, as per the North Carolina Department of Environment and Natural Resources. The agency says that the jobs would peak at 858. North Carolina Governor, Pat McCrory, is pushing to open up coastal waters off the North Carolina Coast for energy ex- ploration. According to McCrory, opening up the Atlantic shores could create up to 140,000 new jobs during the next 20 years. A report by Mike Walden, an economist at North Carolina State University, says that gas drilling would generate $80 million annually in income. Offshore energy exploration would result in $181 million in annual income, according to Walden’s estimates. All forms of energy development could result in longer-term indirect economic benefits. These projects tend to generate rental, lease and royalty income for property owners, and tax revenue for local governments. They would also generate spending on equipment, supplies, food and lodging. A proposed 300-megawatt Desert Wind project in Eastern North Carolina would also follow a similar pattern in terms of economic benefits. According to Paul Copleman, a spokesman for the Iberdrola wind developer, this project would produce similar economic activity as a 304-megawatt wind farm recently completed in Ohio. The $600 million Ohio project had 1,200 workers at peak of the construction with an average of 500-plus workers over an 18-month construction period. A wind farm of that size would require a permanent team of 15 to 20 people for monitoring and maintenance. For the solar farm project, at least two-third of the workers - consisting of engineers, mud loggers, drillers, derrick handlers and tool pushers - would come in from outside of the state. There will also be ample work for handymen, electricians, truckers, asphalt pavers, deck hands, surveyors, yard workers and cement-pouring operations. According to Steve Heron, South region exploration manager of Cabot Oil & Gas, a drilling project of that size (368 wells) would require a permanent crew number about 36 people. “The time for further delay is over. It’s time to get off the sidelines and allow the states to exert the leadership that will create thousands of jobs, reduce America’s dependence on Middle Eastern oil and protect the environment” ~Pat McCrory, Governor of North Carolina Wind Farm Work What Types of Workers are Needed?
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Trend Line: Contingent
Worker Forecast and Supply Report. © DCR. All Rights Reserved - 13 North Carolina: Energy Sector Creating Employment Boom for Temps At Strata Solar, one of the largest solar developers, local residents perform most fieldwork. Workers are trained within a few days and paid $12 per hour on average. The company currently has 450 assemblers and installers at various sites, with plans to double the amount of contractors this summer. According to the company spokesman, Blair Schoof, Strata Solar has enough projects upcoming to employ hundreds of workers through 2018. At one of the projects under construction, a 5-megawatt solar form, there are about 50 temporary contractors currently working in racking, modeling, panel installation, operating equipment and electrical capacities. Their pay ranges from $9 to $18 per hour based upon responsibility and experience. How Much is the Pay?
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Methodology Trend Line: Contingent
Worker Forecast and Supply Report. © DCR. All Rights Reserved - 14 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-10/temporary-workers-near-u-s-record-makes-kelly-a-winner.html http://www.wtsp.com/news/national/article/314658/81/Economy-gains-165000-jobs-jobless-rate-75 http://www.staffingindustry.com/Research-Publications/Daily-News/US-Forecast-Staffing-industry-to-grow-6-in-2014-25294 http://www.jsonline.com/business/qps-survey-says-hiring-will-pick-up-in-next-3-months-549oiaf-205269221.html http://www.staffingindustry.com/site/Research-Publications/Daily-News/Survey-46-percent-of-Midwest-employers-to-hire-25543 https://www.elance.com/q/online-employment-report http://www.staffingindustry.com/site/Research-Publications/Daily-News/US-temp-jobs-total-climbs-in-April-25618 http://beta.bls.gov/maps/cew/us http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/26/business/economy/fewer-layoffs-but-employers-are-still-hesitant-to-hire.html?partner=socialflow&smid=tw-nytimesbusiness&_ r=1& http://www.foxbusiness.com/news/2013/05/02/us-layoffs-drop-23-in-april-from-march/ http://www.mondaq.com/unitedstates/x/237020/Health+Safety/OSHA+Announces+Initiative+For+The+Protection+Of+Temporary+Workers http://www.osha.gov/pls/oshaweb/owadisp.show_document?p_table=NEWS_RELEASES&p_id=23994 http://openchannel.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/01/06/16353344-temp-employees-more-likely-to-succumb-to-workplace-hazards?lite http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2013/05/03/4020598/ncs-new-energy-economy-temporary.html#storylink=cpy http://www.bizjournals.com/triangle/blog/2013/05/mccrory-pushes-nc-energy-exploration.html http://www.news-record.com/home/1137355-63/temp-jobs-increase-in-triad#continue http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/01/us-usa-economy-idUSBRE93P04P20130501 http://beta.bls.gov/maps/cew/US?period=2012-Q3&industry=10&pos_color=blue&neg_color=orange&Update=Update&chartData=3&ownerType=5&distribution=Qua ntiles http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cewbd.t01.htm http://www.ows.doleta.gov/press/2013/042513.asp http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cewbd.toc.htm Sources:
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About DCR Workforce Trend
Line: Contingent Worker Forecast and Supply Report. © DCR. All Rights Reserved - 15 DCR Workforce is an award winning, best-in-class service provider for contingent workforce and services procurement management. Our proprietary SaaS platform (SMART TRACK) assists in providing customizable VMS and MSP Solutions to manage, procure and analyze your talent with complete transparency, real-time control, high performance and decision-enabling business intelligence. DCR Workforce serves global clientele including several Fortune 1000 companies. Customers realize greater efficiencies; spend control, improved workforce quality and 100% compliance with our services. For more information about DCR Workforce and its Forecasting Toolkit (Rate, Demand, Supply and Intelligence) including Best Practice Portal, visit dcrworkforce.com For more information call +1-888-DCR-4VMS or visit www.dcrworkforce.com Public Relations: Debra Bergevine 508-380-4039 7815 NW Beacon Square Blvd. #224 Boca Raton, FL 33487 debra.bergevine@dcrworkforce.com | sales@dcrworkforce.com | marketing@dcrworkforce.com www.dcrworkforce.com | blog.dcrworkforce.com facebook.com/DCRWorkforce linkedin.com/company/dcr-workforce twitter.com/DCRWorkforce © 2012 DCR Workforce, Inc. All Rights Reserved. DCR Workforce and Smart Track are Registered Trademarks. CCO — 082912