OAR Winter Conference 2013

1. Housing Market and Economic Outlook Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Presentation at Ohio Association of REALTORS® Columbus, OH January 14, 2013

2. Forecast #1: Inflation will be Notably Higher by 2015 • No Threatening Inflation Signs for 2013 • But Inflation rises to 4% to 6% in 2015 • Well above Fed’s preferred rate of 2% • But not in double‐digits as in 1970s

3. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 ‐4 ‐2 1970 ‐ Jan 1972 ‐ Jan 1974 ‐ Jan 1976 ‐ Jan 1978 ‐ Jan 1980 ‐ Jan 1982 ‐ Jan 1984 ‐ Jan 1986 ‐ Jan Core 1988 ‐ Jan 1990 ‐ Jan 1992 ‐ Jan 1994 ‐ Jan 1996 ‐ Jan Overall 1998 ‐ Jan (% change from one year ago) 2000 ‐ Jan 2002 ‐ Jan 2004 ‐ Jan Consumer Price Inflation 2006 ‐ Jan 2008 ‐ Jan 2010 ‐ Jan 2012 ‐ Jan

4. ‐1 0 1 2 3 4 5 2000 ‐ Jan 2000 ‐ Jul 2001 ‐ Jan 2001 ‐ Jul 2002 ‐ Jan 2002 ‐ Jul 2003 ‐ Jan 2003 ‐ Jul 2004 ‐ Jan 2004 ‐ Jul 2005 ‐ Jan 2005 ‐ Jul 2006 ‐ Jan 2006 ‐ Jul Owners' Equivalent Rent 2007 ‐ Jan 2007 ‐ Jul 2008 ‐ Jan 2008 ‐ Jul 2009 ‐ Jan 2009 ‐ Jul 2010 ‐ Jan 2010 ‐ Jul (the biggest weight to Consumer Price Index) Renters' Rent 2011 ‐ Jan 2011 ‐ Jul 2012 ‐ Jan 2012 ‐ Jul Rising Renters’ and Homeowners’ Rent Growth

5. Percent of REALTORS® Reporting Changing Rent Levels as Compared to 12 Months Ago 60% Sept '12: Rising rent: 57% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Higher Rents Lower Rents Constant rents

6. Monetary Policy by Federal Reserve (zero rate policy to 2015 ?) % Fed Funds 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

7. Federal Reserve Balance Sheet from Quantitative Easing Total Assets 3500000 $ million 3000000 2500000 2000000 1500000 1000000 500000 0 1‐Aug‐07 1‐Aug‐08 1‐Aug‐09 1‐Aug‐10 1‐Aug‐11 1‐Aug‐12

8. 500000 0 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000 3500000 4000000 1970 ‐ Jan 1972 ‐ Jan 1974 ‐ Jan 1976 ‐ Jan 1978 ‐ Jan 1980 ‐ Jan 1982 ‐ Jan 1984 ‐ Jan 12‐month tally in $ million 1986 ‐ Jan Revenue 1988 ‐ Jan 1990 ‐ Jan 1992 ‐ Jan 1994 ‐ Jan 1996 ‐ Jan Spending 1998 ‐ Jan 2000 ‐ Jan Federal Government 2002 ‐ Jan 2004 ‐ Jan Tax Revenue and Spending 2006 ‐ Jan 2008 ‐ Jan 2010 ‐ Jan 2012 ‐ Jan

9. Huge Federal Budget Deficit … Will Push Up Borrowing Cost and/or Ignite Inflation 4 Deficit in relation to GDP 2 0 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 ‐2‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐4 ‐6 ‐8 ‐10 ‐12

10. Impact to Deficit • Mortgage Interest Deduction … $90 billion – Not the source of the current budget deficit since MID was present for nearly 100 years • Interest Rates Revert back to historical average … $300 billion in extra interest expense

11. 0 5 10 15 20 ‐5 1971 ‐ Jan 1973 ‐ Jan 1975 ‐ Jan 1977 ‐ Jan 1979 ‐ Jan 1981 ‐ Jan 1983 ‐ Jan 1985 ‐ Jan 1987 ‐ Jan 1989 ‐ Jan 1991 ‐ Jan 30‐year Mortgage Rate 1993 ‐ Jan 1995 ‐ Jan 1997 ‐ Jan 1999 ‐ Jan Mortgage Rates 2001 ‐ Jan 2003 ‐ Jan 2005 ‐ Jan Inflation Rate 2007 ‐ Jan 2009 ‐ Jan Declining Inflation Helped Lower 2011 ‐ Jan

12. Mortgage Rate Forecast (Average Rate of 5.5% in 2015 ?) 30‐year Mortgage % 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Modestly higher rates could help home sales as banks re‐staff mortgage work for home purchase applications and less refinance applications.

13. Forecast #2: Meaningfully Higher Home Prices • Demand is Up … Supply is Down • 4% to 5% in 2012 (Case‐Shiller, FHFA) • 5% to 7% in 2012 (Median Home Price) • Home price growth could slow or accelerate … all depends on housing starts • Probably 15% cumulative growth over 3 years

14. 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 2008 ‐ Jan 2008 ‐ Apr 2008 ‐ Jul 2008 ‐ Oct 2009 ‐ Jan 2009 ‐ Apr 2009 ‐ Jul 2009 ‐ Oct Buyer 2010 ‐ Jan 2010 ‐ Apr 2010 ‐ Jul 2010 ‐ Oct Seller 2011 ‐ Jan 2011 ‐ Apr 2011 ‐ Jul from REALTOR® Survey Buyer and Seller Traffic 2011 ‐ Oct 2012 ‐ Jan 2012 ‐ Apr 2012 ‐ Jul

15. 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 2007 ‐ Jan 2007 ‐ Apr 2007 ‐ Jul Source: NAR 2007 ‐ Oct 2008 ‐ Jan 2008 ‐ Apr 2008 ‐ Jul 2008 ‐ Oct 2009 ‐ Jan 2009 ‐ Apr Homebuyer Tax Credit 2009 ‐ Jul 2009 ‐ Oct 2010 ‐ Jan 2010 ‐ Apr 2010 ‐ Jul (Seasonally Adjusted) 2010 ‐ Oct 2011 ‐ Jan 2011 ‐ Apr 2011 ‐ July 2011 ‐ Oct 2012 ‐ Jan 2012‐Apr 2012 ‐ Jul 2012 ‐ Oct Monthly Pending Home Sales Index

16. Annual Existing Home Sales Closings: U‐Shaped Recovery 8 In million units 7 7.08 6 6.52 5 5.7 5.4 5.02 5.1 4 4.69 4.12 4.34 4.18 4.26 3 2 1 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2012 est.

17. Ohio Housing Statistics • Sales up 14% year‐to‐date • Prices up 5% in November • Dollar Volume … up 20% • REALTOR®… up from 28 and 49 (from bad to normal) • Inventories down 15% from 1 year ago • Inventories down 41% from 2 years ago

18. Household Formation Bursting Out (in millions) 2.00 1.80 1.60 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00

19. 124000 126000 128000 130000 132000 134000 136000 138000 2000 ‐ Jan 2000 ‐ Jul 2001 ‐ Jan 2001 ‐ Jul 140000 In thousands 2002 ‐ Jan 2002 ‐ Jul 2003 ‐ Jan 2003 ‐ Jul 2004 ‐ Jan 2004 ‐ Jul 2005 ‐ Jan 2005 ‐ Jul 2006 ‐ Jan 2006 ‐ Jul 2007 ‐ Jan 2007 ‐ Jul 2008 ‐ Jan 2008 ‐ Jul 2009 ‐ Jan U.S. Total Payroll Jobs 2009 ‐ Jul 2010 ‐ Jan 2010 ‐ Jul (Recovered 63% of jobs lost) 2011 ‐ Jan 2011 ‐ Jul 2012 ‐ Jan 2012 ‐ Jul

20. 5000 5100 5200 5300 5400 5500 5600 5700 5800 2000 ‐ Jan 2000 ‐ Jul 2001 ‐ Jan 2001 ‐ Jul 2002 ‐ Jan In thousands 2002 ‐ Jul 2003 ‐ Jan 2003 ‐ Jul 2004 ‐ Jan 2004 ‐ Jul 2005 ‐ Jan 2005 ‐ Jul 2006 ‐ Jan 2006 ‐ Jul 2007 ‐ Jan 2007 ‐ Jul 2008 ‐ Jan (Lost Decade) 2008 ‐ Jul 2009 ‐ Jan 2009 ‐ Jul Ohio Total Payroll Jobs 2010 ‐ Jan 2010 ‐ Jul 2011 ‐ Jan 2011 ‐ Jul 2012 ‐ Jan 2012 ‐ Jul

21. Ohio Total Payroll Jobs Long‐term since 1939 6000 In thousands 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1939 1945 1951 1957 1963 1969 1975 1981 1987 1993 1999 2005 2011 ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan

22. 54% 56% 58% 60% 62% 64% 66% 2000 ‐ Jan 2000 ‐ Jul 2001 ‐ Jan 2001 ‐ Jul 2002 ‐ Jan 2002 ‐ Jul 2003 ‐ Jan 2003 ‐ Jul 2004 ‐ Jan 2004 ‐ Jul 2005 ‐ Jan 2005 ‐ Jul 2006 ‐ Jan 2006 ‐ Jul 2007 ‐ Jan 2007 ‐ Jul 2008 ‐ Jan 2008 ‐ Jul 2009 ‐ Jan 2009 ‐ Jul 2010 ‐ Jan 2010 ‐ Jul (How many of the civilian population is working?) 2011 ‐ Jan Employment Rate … No Progress 2011 ‐ Jul 2012 ‐ Jan 2012 ‐ Jul

23. Visible Existing Home Inventory (Existing home inventory at 8‐year low) 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan

24. 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 0 1964 ‐ Jan 1966 ‐ Jan 1968 ‐ Jan 1970 ‐ Jan 1972 ‐ Jan 1974 ‐ Jan 1976 ‐ Jan 1978 ‐ Jan 1980 ‐ Jan 1982 ‐ Jan 1984 ‐ Jan 1986 ‐ Jan 1988 ‐ Jan 1990 ‐ Jan 1992 ‐ Jan 1994 ‐ Jan 1996 ‐ Jan 1998 ‐ Jan 2000 ‐ Jan 2002 ‐ Jan 2004 ‐ Jan Visible New Home Inventory 2006 ‐ Jan 2008 ‐ Jan (Newly Constructed Homes Inventory at 50‐year low) 2010 ‐ Jan 2012 ‐ Jan

25. Housing Starts (Well Below 50‐year average of 1.5 million each year) multifamily single‐family Thousand units (annualized) 2500 2000 Long‐term Average 1500 1000 500 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan

26. 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 Ohio Housing Permits 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

27. 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 2000 ‐ Q1 2000 ‐ Q3 2001 ‐ Q1 2001 ‐ Q3 2002 ‐ Q1 2002 ‐ Q3 2003 ‐ Q1 2003 ‐ Q3 2004 ‐ Q1 2004 ‐ Q3 2005 ‐ Q1 2005 ‐ Q3 2006 ‐ Q1 2006 ‐ Q3 2007 ‐ Q1 2007 ‐ Q3 2008 ‐ Q1 2008 ‐ Q3 2009 ‐ Q1 2009 ‐ Q3 2010 ‐ Q1 million units 2010 ‐ Q3 2011 ‐ Q1 2011 ‐ Q3 2012 ‐ Q1 2012 ‐ Q3 Shadow Inventory … Falling 2015 … 5% 2014 … 8% (Seriously delinquent mortgage + homes in foreclosure process) 2013 … 15% 2012 … 25% 2011 … 33% 2010 … 33% Market Share Distressed Sales

28. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 % 2005 ‐ Q1 2005 ‐ Q2 2005 ‐ Q3 2005 ‐ Q4 2006 ‐ Q1 2006 ‐ Q2 2006 ‐ Q3 2006 ‐ Q4 2007 ‐ Q1 • Vacant property 2007 ‐ Q2 2007 ‐ Q3 2007 ‐ Q4 2008 ‐ Q1 2008 ‐ Q2 CT 2008 ‐ Q3 2008 ‐ Q4 IL 2009 ‐ Q1 2009 ‐ Q2 2009 ‐ Q3 2009 ‐ Q4 2010 ‐ Q1 2010 ‐ Q2 • Missed Mortgages for 6 months or longer 2010 ‐ Q3 2010 ‐ Q4 2011 ‐ Q1 2011 ‐ Q2 2011 ‐ Q3 Example Seriously Delinquent Mortgages in CT and IL 2011 ‐ Q4 2012 ‐ Q1 2012 ‐ Q2 Foreclosures Clogged in Judicial States Should a trigger be set up to foreclose without a court approval?

29. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 % 2005 ‐ Q1 2005 ‐ Q2 2005 ‐ Q3 2005 ‐ Q4 2006 ‐ Q1 2006 ‐ Q2 2006 ‐ Q3 2006 ‐ Q4 2007 ‐ Q1 2007 ‐ Q2 2007 ‐ Q3 2007 ‐ Q4 2008 ‐ Q1 2008 ‐ Q2 AZ 2008 ‐ Q3 2008 ‐ Q4 2009 ‐ Q1 MI 2009 ‐ Q2 2009 ‐ Q3 2009 ‐ Q4 2010 ‐ Q1 2010 ‐ Q2 2010 ‐ Q3 2010 ‐ Q4 in Non‐Judicial States 2011 ‐ Q1 2011 ‐ Q2 Foreclosures Rapidly Falling 2011 ‐ Q3 2011 ‐ Q4 Example: Seriously Delinquent Mortgages in AZ, CA , MI 2012 ‐ Q1 2012 ‐ Q2 2012 ‐ Q3

30. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 % 2005 ‐ Q1 2005 ‐ Q2 2005 ‐ Q3 2005 ‐ Q4 2006 ‐ Q1 2006 ‐ Q2 2006 ‐ Q3 2006 ‐ Q4 2007 ‐ Q1 2007 ‐ Q2 2007 ‐ Q3 2007 ‐ Q4 2008 ‐ Q1 2008 ‐ Q2 2008 ‐ Q3 2008 ‐ Q4 2009 ‐ Q1 2009 ‐ Q2 2009 ‐ Q3 2009 ‐ Q4 Ohio Shadow 2010 ‐ Q1 2010 ‐ Q2 2010 ‐ Q3 2010 ‐ Q4 2011 ‐ Q1 2011 ‐ Q2 2011 ‐ Q3 2011 ‐ Q4 2012 ‐ Q1 2012 ‐ Q2 2012 ‐ Q3

31. Home Prices Metric % change from one year ago Comment NAR + 10.1% (November) Mix of homes impact price … Median Price fewer distressed sales recently … Case‐Shiller +4.3% (Aug, Sep, Oct average) Lagging indicator Near double‐digit on an annualized basis in recent months FHFA + 5.6% (October) 9 straights months of gain National FHFA +3.0% (Third Quarter) 3 straight quarters of gain Connecticut

32. 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 0 1990 ‐ Q1 1991 ‐ Q1 1992 ‐ Q1 1993 ‐ Q1 1994 ‐ Q1 1995 ‐ Q1 1996 ‐ Q1 1997 ‐ Q1 1998 ‐ Q1 1999 ‐ Q1 2000 ‐ Q1 OH 2001 ‐ Q1 AZ 2002 ‐ Q1 2003 ‐ Q1 2004 ‐ Q1 2005 ‐ Q1 2006 ‐ Q1 Home Price Index 2007 ‐ Q1 2008 ‐ Q1 2009 ‐ Q1 2010 ‐ Q1 2011 ‐ Q1 2012 ‐ Q1

33. State Variations in Price Appreciation (% change from 2011 Q3 to 2012 Q3) 25 20 Many in Rocky Mountain States 15 10 5 Mostly in Northeast 0 Utah Nevada Michigan New Jersey Maine North Dakota Colorado Arizona Florida Illinois California Connecticut New Hampshire Idaho New York Rhode Island DC ‐5 Source: FHFA Repeat Price Index

34. Forecast #3: More Unequal Wealth Distribution • Renters do not accumulate wealth • Renter population rising • Homeowners build wealth after buying at low prices • Stagnant homeowner population • Tight Credit hinders ‘good’ renters from becoming homeowners • Investors becoming increasing share of property owners

35. 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 0 2000 ‐ Q1 2000 ‐ Q3 2001 ‐ Q1 2001 ‐ Q3 In $ billion 2002 ‐ Q1 2002 ‐ Q3 2003 ‐ Q1 2003 ‐ Q3 2004 ‐ Q1 2004 ‐ Q3 2005 ‐ Q1 2005 ‐ Q3 2006 ‐ Q1 2006 ‐ Q3 2007 ‐ Q1 2007 ‐ Q3 2008 ‐ Q1 Bubble growth 2008 ‐ Q3 2009 ‐ Q1 2009 ‐ Q3 2010 ‐ Q1 Net Equity in Real Estate 2010 ‐ Q3 2011 ‐ Q1 2011 ‐ Q3 2012 ‐ Q1 If 4% annual gain

36. Wealth Distribution (Federal Reserve data on median net worth) $300,000 Bubble Crash $250,000 $200,000 1998 2001 $150,000 2004 $100,000 2007 2010 $50,000 2014 $0 Renter Owner 2014 Forecast by NAR

37. 25,000 27,000 29,000 31,000 33,000 35,000 37,000 39,000 41,000 1980 ‐ Q1 1981 ‐ Q1 1982 ‐ Q1 1983 ‐ Q1 1984 ‐ Q1 1985 ‐ Q1 In thousands 1986 ‐ Q1 1987 ‐ Q1 1988 ‐ Q1 1989 ‐ Q1 1990 ‐ Q1 1991 ‐ Q1 1992 ‐ Q1 1993 ‐ Q1 1994 ‐ Q1 1995 ‐ Q1 1996 ‐ Q1 1997 ‐ Q1 1998 ‐ Q1 1999 ‐ Q1 2000 ‐ Q1 2001 ‐ Q1 2002 ‐ Q1 2003 ‐ Q1 Renter Households 2004 ‐ Q1 2005 ‐ Q1 2006 ‐ Q1 2007 ‐ Q1 2008 ‐ Q1 2009 ‐ Q1 2010 ‐ Q1 2011 ‐ Q1 2012 ‐ Q1

38. 50,000 55,000 60,000 65,000 70,000 75,000 80,000 1980 ‐ Q1 1981 ‐ Q1 1982 ‐ Q1 1983 ‐ Q1 1984 ‐ Q1 1985 ‐ Q1 In thousands 1986 ‐ Q1 1987 ‐ Q1 1988 ‐ Q1 1989 ‐ Q1 1990 ‐ Q1 1991 ‐ Q1 1992 ‐ Q1 1993 ‐ Q1 1994 ‐ Q1 1995 ‐ Q1 1996 ‐ Q1 1997 ‐ Q1 1998 ‐ Q1 1999 ‐ Q1 2000 ‐ Q1 2001 ‐ Q1 2002 ‐ Q1 2003 ‐ Q1 2004 ‐ Q1 2005 ‐ Q1 Homeowner Households 2006 ‐ Q1 2007 ‐ Q1 2008 ‐ Q1 2009 ‐ Q1 2010 ‐ Q1 2011 ‐ Q1 2012 ‐ Q1

39. 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 % 1965 ‐ Q1 1966 ‐ Q1 1967 ‐ Q1 1968 ‐ Q1 1969 ‐ Q1 1970 ‐ Q1 1971 ‐ Q1 1972 ‐ Q1 1973 ‐ Q1 1974 ‐ Q1 1975 ‐ Q1 1976 ‐ Q1 1977 ‐ Q1 1978 ‐ Q1 1979 ‐ Q1 1980 ‐ Q1 1981 ‐ Q1 1982 ‐ Q1 1983 ‐ Q1 1984 ‐ Q1 1985 ‐ Q1 1986 ‐ Q1 1987 ‐ Q1 1988 ‐ Q1 1989 ‐ Q1 1990 ‐ Q1 1991 ‐ Q1 1992 ‐ Q1 1993 ‐ Q1 (Lowest in 15 years) 1994 ‐ Q1 1995 ‐ Q1 1996 ‐ Q1 1997 ‐ Q1 1998 ‐ Q1 1999 ‐ Q1 2000 ‐ Q1 2001 ‐ Q1 2002 ‐ Q1 2003 ‐ Q1 2004 ‐ Q1 2005 ‐ Q1 2006 ‐ Q1 Homeownership Rate at 65.5% 2007 ‐ Q1 2008 ‐ Q1 2009 ‐ Q1 2010 ‐ Q1 2011 ‐ Q1 2012 ‐ Q1

40. Household Formation (Usually 2/3 owners and 1/3 renters = 66% homeownership rate) 1.6 1.4 1.2 All Renters 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 Source: Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies

41. Economy Growing, though Slowly (No Fresh Recession because of Housing Recovery) Real GDP Growth Rate 4 % 3 2 1 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 ‐1 forecastforecast ‐2 ‐3 ‐4

42. Payroll Jobs Changes (December to December) 3 In millions 2 1 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 ‐1 forecastforecast ‐2 ‐3 ‐4 ‐5 ‐6

43. ‐200 ‐100 0 100 200 300 400 500 2001 ‐ Q1 2001 ‐ Q3 2002 ‐ Q1 $ billion 2002 ‐ Q3 2003 ‐ Q1 2003 ‐ Q3 2004 ‐ Q1 2004 ‐ Q3 2005 ‐ Q1 2005 ‐ Q3 2006 ‐ Q1 2006 ‐ Q3 2007 ‐ Q1 2007 ‐ Q3 2008 ‐ Q1 (excluding Federal Reserve) 2008 ‐ Q3 2009 ‐ Q1 2009 ‐ Q3 Financial Industry Profits 2010 ‐ Q1 2010 ‐ Q3 2011 ‐ Q1 2011 ‐ Q3 2012 ‐ Q1

44. Risks to Forecast • Upside … Credit Availability – Housing recovery so far even with tight credit – What happens if mortgage accessibility opens up? – Counter‐cyclical housing policy … lower FHA premiums and lower GSE g‐fees • Downside … Washington Policy – QRM 20% down payment requirement? – Basel 3 … capital rule that punishes private mortgage with low down payment and commercial loans – Trim mortgage interest deduction? – Capital gains tax on home sale?

45. Forecast (If Prolonged Fiscal Cliff is Avoided) 2011 2012 2013 2014 Forecast Forecast GDP Growth +1.8% +2.1% +2.3% 3.0% Existing Home 4.3 million 4.7 million 5.1 million 5.3 million Sales Housing Starts 610 K 780 K 1.1 million 1.3 million Existing Home ‐ 4% + 7% + 5% + 4% Price Growth 30‐yr Mortgage 4.7% 3.7% 4.1% 4.8% Rate

46. For Daily Update and Analysis • Twitter @NAR_Research

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