1.
“Building with nature – Building design in a changing environment”.<br />April 2011, Novotel Barossa Valley Resort, SA<br />Darren Bilsborough, Managing Director<br />Adjunct Professor of Sustainability, Curtin University<br />

2.
More potential problems than you can poke a stick at relating to:-<br />City Vulnerability<br />Identifying the issues<br /><ul><li>Climate Change

3.
Global Population and Consumption

4.
Leading to Resource Depletion and;-

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Peak Oil

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Peak Water

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Peak Food

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Pollution (air, water and soil)

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Health and Well Being (future liabilities)

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Housing Affordability</li></li></ul><li>1981 – 2005: global GDP more than doubled, but 60% of world’s ecosystems degraded/exploited unsustainably<br />

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Future Health Liability<br />Future Health Liability – Unfunded Health Budgets<br />

12.
Peak Oil<br />

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Sprawling Places Are More Expensive<br />

14.
How Much Time Have We Got?<br />Some future scenarios have petrol prices at up to $8/litre in Australia. Even modest scenarios foresee $2 a litre within a few years<br />Surveys by Budget Direct suggest 30% of motorists in Australian cities will stop using their car to commute if petrol reaches $1.75 a litre<br />Watch the arctic this September – the canary in the mine. We may only be three-four years from an ice free arctic in summer<br />

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Courtesy of Professor Peter Newman<br />

16.

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Climate Code Red<br />

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PB-CUSP Alliance Research<br />Costs to government<br />$86 million (or approximately $80,000 per block) – or the cost to provide power, water, sewerage, schools, hospitals and local government services for fringe developments. Road infrastructure is the most significant cost.<br />Cost to people<br />$250 million in transport costs over 50 years – people in fringe developments drive more frequently and own more cars<br /> $ 4.23 million in health costs – people in fringe developments have higher risk of obesity related to lower levels of physical activity for people.<br />Cost to the planet<br />4,400 tons of greenhouse gas is saved for 1,000 urban dwellings, which is roughly equal to the amount emitted from 200 homes – an estimated dollar value of approximately $19.32 million.<br />Productivity Opportunity<br />A 6% improvement in productivity due to active travel Lifestyle.<br />

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The Biggest Problem?<br />Climate Change Adaptation<br />

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Climate Change Adaptation<br />Adaptation Strategies in response to Changing Climatic and Environmental Conditions <br /> Risk minimisation which takes into account impacts associated with rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, rising sea levels and changing storm frequency, type and intensity.<br /> Response to changes in land use/value and planning. <br /> Prepare communities to adapt to climate change including: <br /><ul><li> impacts of population increases (or changes) on infrastructure needs such as transportation, energy and water

21.
bushfire intensity and frequency </li></li></ul><li>So....Where to from here?<br /> The Next Wave?<br />

22.
More potential problems than you can poke a stick at relating to:-<br />City Vulnerability<br />Identifying the issues<br /><ul><li>Climate Change Mitigation

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Ecological Debt

24.
Housing and Household Affordability

25.
Climate Change Adaptation

26.
Health and Well Being (future liabilities)</li></li></ul><li>“If you’re looking for a big opportunity look for a big problem” ANON<br />Let’s look at some opportunities and future<br /> influencer’s on the building industry<br />

27.
More potential problems than you can poke a stick at relating to:-<br />City Vulnerability<br />Identifying the issues<br /><ul><li>Climate Change Mitigation</li></li></ul><li>Garbage tips<br />Gases escaping (during mining, from pipes)<br />3%<br />Industrial processes<br />6%<br />2%<br />Agriculture <br />(mostly ex-animals)<br />17%<br />Land use change and forestry (clearing, etc)<br />10%<br />Where do Australian emissions come from?<br />Transport(vehicles)<br />14%<br />48%<br />Stationary energy(power plants, etc)<br />AGO, figures for 1999<br />

28.
Where do Australian emissions come from?<br />62%of all emissions from TransportandEnergy<br />Transport(vehicles)<br />Stationary energy(power plants, etc)<br />AGO, figures for 1999<br />

29.
Energy Options: Peak Oil and Mitigating GHG’s<br />Mitigation Strategies - Energy<br />Nuclear Fission<br />CO2 Capture<br />and Storage<br />Energy Efficiency and <br />Conservation<br />14 BtC/y<br />Stabilization<br />Fuel Switching<br />Biosequestration<br />Forests & Soils<br /> Triangle<br />7 BtC/y<br />2005<br />2055<br />Renewable Electricity and Distributed Energy<br />

30.
Energy Options: Peak Oil and Mitigating GHG’s<br />Mitigation Strategies - Energy<br />Energy Efficiency and <br />Conservation<br />14 BtC/y<br />Stabilization<br />Biosequestration<br />Forests & Soils<br /> Triangle<br />7 BtC/y<br />2005<br />2055<br />Renewable Electricity and Distributed Energy<br />

31.
Energy Efficiency a Key Differentiator in the Short Term (for holders of property assets)?<br />As a result of required investment in green and renewable electricity generation and new carbon pricing mechanisms, it is certain that electricity prices will rise.<br />It is certain that under any carbon pricing mechanism super energy efficient green buildings will not only have lower operating costs (by a much greater margin than available to-day due to the future rise in energy costs) but may also be able to economically benefit from either avoiding carbon tax or by trading available credits.<br />A key initiative raised at the Prime Minister’s 2020 summit was <br />“ carbon neutrality for all new buildings constructed beyond 2020”. <br />

32.
But the problem is even bigger…<br />

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Building Integrated PV<br />

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European leadership…Vauban Frieburg100% renewable<br />

35.

36.
Roof mounted wind systems eg Windpods<br />

37.
Destiny of all life lies within technology<br />

38.
Vehicle Options: Peak Oil and Mitigating GHG’s<br />Vehicle Options: Peak Oil and Mitigating GHG’s<br />Alternate Fuels<br />electric cars<br />electric-assist bike<br />electric motor-scooter<br />electric gopher<br />

39.
Availability?<br />Availability?.......and Capacity?<br />What if we replaced all of the cars in Australia with EV’s?<br />We would have 3 times (300%) the current power generation capacity for the nation........<br />

40.
Smart Grids: An Alternative Renewables Enabler<br />

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Effects on Housing design<br />EVs, Distributed Energy and Smart Grids<br />Courtesy of EPRI<br />

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EVs and Renewable Communities<br />EVs in Toyota’s Dream House, Japan<br />MASDAR City, United Arab Emirates<br />

43.
More potential problems than you can poke a stick at relating to:-<br />City Vulnerability<br />Identifying the issues<br /><ul><li>Climate Change Mitigation

44.
Ecological Debt

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Housing and Household Affordability</li></li></ul><li>Not only more energy<br /> more resources too…<br />

46.
Consumption of Non-Renewable ResourcesWhat does this mean?<br />No More New Buildings?......Probably the “right” answer but this is just not practical<br /> We must encourage the market to Refurbish and Reuse and if new buildings are required (and they will be required due to increasing population and growth demands in the short to medium term) we need them to be developed using a high proportion of renewable resources and to operate on zero waste principals including carbon neutrality.<br />

47.
....and more Affordable<br />

48.
More potential problems than you can poke a stick at relating to:-<br />City Vulnerability<br />Identifying the issues<br /><ul><li>Climate Change Mitigation

49.
Ecological Debt

50.
Housing and Household Affordability

51.
Climate Change Adaptation

52.
Health and Well Being (future liabilities)</li></li></ul><li>The Biophilic City Concept<br />An Example and maybe a possible future trend?<br />

53.
The Biophilic City Concept <br />The Biophilic City Concept<br /><ul><li>Increase Biodiversity and Stabilise Ecological Systems</li></li></ul><li>Biodiverse Cities<br />

54.

55.
The Biophilic City Concept <br />The Biophilic City Concept<br /><ul><li>Increase Biodiversity and Stabilise Ecological Systems

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Introduction of Urban Farming (including Vertical Farms) Catering for Local Food Requirements and Reduction in Food Miles</li></li></ul><li>Edible Cities<br />Cuba<br />Mole Hill Vancouver<br />

57.
Vertical Farms<br />

58.
The Biophilic City Concept <br />The Biophilic City Concept<br /><ul><li>Increase Biodiversity and Stabilise Ecological Systems

59.
Introduction of Urban Farming (including Vertical Farms) Catering for Local Food Requirements and Reduction in Food Miles

60.
Improvement in Water Management, Efficiency and Recycling

61.
Decreased Energy Intensity through Reduced Heat Island Effect – Consideration of Climate Change Adaptation due to ▲ ºC into the Future

62.
Improved Health and Well Being (Biophilia and Reduced Pollution) and Associated Productivity Improvements

63.
Bio-sequestration of Legacy CO²</li></li></ul><li>Conclusions New Ways Needed – A Change in Direction<br /> Sustainable Built Form and Land Use<br /><ul><li>Fewer cars (less roads), more public transport…..pedestrian and cycling priorities</li></li></ul><li>A range of housing densities that are people-oriented<br />Joyce Station,<br />Vancouver, 2004<br />Vauban Redevelopment, Freiburg, Germany<br />Joyce Station,<br />Vancouver, 2004<br />Generous, people-oriented public environments<br />Hotel, Offices, Farmers Market, Cafes, Restaurants<br />

64.

65.
Conclusions New Ways Needed – A Change in Direction<br /> Sustainable Built Form and Land Use<br /><ul><li>Fewer cars (less roads), more public transport…..pedestrian and cycling priorities

66.
Urban growth containment

67.
Higher density residential development with 1st class public transport access nearby (TOD’s)

68.
Resource Efficient Housing (not just Energy)

69.
Urban farming, local food supply

70.
Biophilic cities </li></li></ul><li>The Biophilic City in the Pilbara? <br />Pilbara Cities<br />PB Entry to Living Cities Competition<br />

71.
“Building with nature – Building design in a changing environment”.<br />April 2011, Novotel Barossa Valley Resort, SA<br />Darren Bilsborough, Managing Director<br />Adjunct Professor of Sustainability, Curtin University<br />