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9780273713654 pp05
1.
5.1 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. Chapter 5Chapter 5 Risk andRisk and ReturnReturn
2.
5.2 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. After studying Chapter 5,After studying Chapter 5, you should be able to:you should be able to: 1. Understand the relationship (or “trade-off”) between risk and return. 2. Define risk and return and show how to measure them by calculating expected return, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation. 3. Discuss the different types of investor attitudes toward risk. 4. Explain risk and return in a portfolio context, and distinguish between individual security and portfolio risk. 5. Distinguish between avoidable (unsystematic) risk and unavoidable (systematic) risk and explain how proper diversification can eliminate one of these risks. 6. Define and explain the capital-asset pricing model (CAPM), beta, and the characteristic line. 7. Calculate a required rate of return using the capital-asset pricing model (CAPM). 8. Demonstrate how the Security Market Line (SML) can be used to describe this relationship between expected rate of return and systematic risk. 9. Explain what is meant by an “efficient financial market” and describe the three levels (or forms) of market efficiency.
3.
5.3 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. Risk and ReturnRisk and Return • Defining Risk and Return • Using Probability Distributions to Measure Risk • Attitudes Toward Risk • Risk and Return in a Portfolio Context • Diversification • The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) • Efficient Financial Markets
4.
5.4 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. Defining ReturnDefining Return Income receivedIncome received on an investment plus any change in market pricechange in market price, usually expressed as a percent of the beginning market pricebeginning market price of the investment. DDtt + (PPtt – P– Pt - 1t - 1 ) PPt - 1t - 1 R =
5.
5.5 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. Return ExampleReturn Example The stock price for Stock A was $10$10 per share 1 year ago. The stock is currently trading at $9.50$9.50 per share and shareholders just received a $1 dividend$1 dividend. What return was earned over the past year?
6.
5.6 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. Return ExampleReturn Example The stock price for Stock A was $10$10 per share 1 year ago. The stock is currently trading at $9.50$9.50 per share and shareholders just received a $1 dividend$1 dividend. What return was earned over the past year? $1.00$1.00 + ($9.50$9.50 – $10.00$10.00 ) $10.00$10.00RR = = 5%5%
7.
5.7 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. Defining RiskDefining Risk What rate of return do you expect on yourWhat rate of return do you expect on your investment (savings) this year?investment (savings) this year? What rate will you actually earn?What rate will you actually earn? Does it matter if it is a bank CD or a shareDoes it matter if it is a bank CD or a share of stock?of stock? The variability of returns fromThe variability of returns from those that are expected.those that are expected.
8.
5.8 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. Determining ExpectedDetermining Expected Return (Discrete Dist.)Return (Discrete Dist.) R = Σ ( Ri )( Pi ) R is the expected return for the asset, Ri is the return for the ith possibility, Pi is the probability of that return occurring, n is the total number of possibilities. n I = 1
9.
5.9 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. How to Determine the ExpectedHow to Determine the Expected Return and Standard DeviationReturn and Standard Deviation Stock BW Ri Pi (Ri)(Pi) -0.15 0.10 –0.015 -0.03 0.20 –0.006 0.09 0.40 0.036 0.21 0.20 0.042 0.33 0.10 0.033 Sum 1.00 0.0900.090 The expected return, R, for Stock BW is .09 or 9%
10.
5.10 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. Determining StandardDetermining Standard Deviation (Risk Measure)Deviation (Risk Measure) σσ = Σ ( Ri – R )2 ( Pi ) Standard DeviationStandard Deviation, σσ, is a statistical measure of the variability of a distribution around its mean. It is the square root of variance. Note, this is for a discrete distribution. n i = 1
11.
5.11 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. How to Determine the ExpectedHow to Determine the Expected Return and Standard DeviationReturn and Standard Deviation Stock BW Ri Pi (Ri)(Pi) (Ri - R )2 (Pi) –0.15 0.10 –0.015 0.00576 –0.03 0.20 –0.006 0.00288 0.09 0.40 0.036 0.00000 0.21 0.20 0.042 0.00288 0.33 0.10 0.033 0.00576 Sum 1.00 0.0900.090 0.017280.01728
12.
5.12 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. Determining StandardDetermining Standard Deviation (Risk Measure)Deviation (Risk Measure) n i=1 σσ = Σ ( Ri – R )2 ( Pi ) σσ = .01728 σσ = 0.13150.1315 or 13.15%13.15%
13.
5.13 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. Coefficient of VariationCoefficient of Variation The ratio of the standard deviationstandard deviation of a distribution to the meanmean of that distribution. It is a measure of RELATIVERELATIVE risk. CV = σσ/RR CV of BW = 0.13150.1315 / 0.090.09 = 1.46
14.
5.14 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. Discrete versus. ContinuousDiscrete versus. Continuous DistributionsDistributions 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 –0.15 –0.03 9% 21% 33% Discrete Continuous 0 0.005 0.01 0.015 0.02 0.025 0.03 0.035 -50% -41% -32% -23% -14% -5% 4% 13% 22% 31% 40% 49% 58% 67%
15.
5.15 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. ContinuousContinuous Distribution ProblemDistribution Problem • Assume that the following list represents the continuous distribution of population returns for a particular investment (even though there are only 10 returns). • 9.6%, –15.4%, 26.7%, –0.2%, 20.9%, 28.3%, –5.9%, 3.3%, 12.2%, 10.5% • Calculate the Expected Return and Standard Deviation for the population.
16.
5.16 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. Let’s Use the Calculator!Let’s Use the Calculator! Enter “Data” first. Press: 2nd Data 2nd CLR Work 9.6 ENTER ↓ ↓ –15.4 ENTER ↓ ↓ 26.7 ENTER ↓ ↓ • Note, we are inputting data only for the “X” variable and ignoring entries for the “Y” variable in this case. Source: Courtesy of Texas Instruments
17.
5.17 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. Let’s Use the Calculator!Let’s Use the Calculator! Enter “Data” first. Press: –0.2 ENTER ↓ ↓ 20.9 ENTER ↓ ↓ 28.3 ENTER ↓ ↓ –5.9 ENTER ↓ ↓ 3.3 ENTER ↓ ↓ 12.2 ENTER ↓ ↓ 10.5 ENTER ↓ ↓ Source: Courtesy of Texas Instruments
18.
5.18 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. Let’s Use the Calculator!Let’s Use the Calculator! Examine Results! Press: 2nd Stat • ↓ through the results. • Expected return is 9% for the 10 observations. Population standard deviation is 13.32%. • This can be much quicker than calculating by hand, but slower than using a spreadsheet. Source: Courtesy of Texas Instruments
19.
5.19 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. Certainty EquivalentCertainty Equivalent (CECE) is the amount of cash someone would require with certainty at a point in time to make the individual indifferent between that certain amount and an amount expected to be received with risk at the same point in time. Risk AttitudesRisk Attitudes
20.
5.20 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. Certainty equivalent > Expected value Risk PreferenceRisk Preference Certainty equivalent = Expected value Risk IndifferenceRisk Indifference Certainty equivalent < Expected value Risk AversionRisk Aversion Most individuals are Risk AverseRisk Averse. Risk AttitudesRisk Attitudes
21.
5.21 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. You have the choice between (1) a guaranteed dollar reward or (2) a coin-flip gamble of $100,000 (50% chance) or $0 (50% chance). The expected value of the gamble is $50,000. • Mary requires a guaranteed $25,000, or more, to call off the gamble. • Raleigh is just as happy to take $50,000 or take the risky gamble. • Shannon requires at least $52,000 to call off the gamble. Risk Attitude ExampleRisk Attitude Example
22.
5.22 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. What are the Risk Attitude tendencies of each?What are the Risk Attitude tendencies of each? Risk Attitude ExampleRisk Attitude Example Mary shows “risk aversion”“risk aversion” because her “certainty equivalent” < the expected value of the gamble.. Raleigh exhibits “risk indifference”“risk indifference” because her “certainty equivalent” equals the expected value of the gamble.. Shannon reveals a “risk preference”“risk preference” because her “certainty equivalent” > the expected value of the gamble..
23.
5.23 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. RP = Σ ( Wj )( Rj ) RP is the expected return for the portfolio, Wj is the weight (investment proportion) for the jth asset in the portfolio, Rj is the expected return of the jth asset, m is the total number of assets in the portfolio. Determining PortfolioDetermining Portfolio Expected ReturnExpected Return m J = 1
24.
5.24 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. Determining PortfolioDetermining Portfolio Standard DeviationStandard Deviation m J=1 m K=1 σσPP = Σ Σ Wj Wk σ jk Wj is the weight (investment proportion) for the jth asset in the portfolio, Wk is the weight (investment proportion) for the kth asset in the portfolio, σjk is the covariance between returns for the jth and kth assets in the portfolio.
25.
5.25 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. Slides 5-26 through 5-28 and 5-31 through 5-34 assume that the student has read Appendix A in Chapter 5 Tip Slide: Appendix ATip Slide: Appendix A
26.
5.26 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. σσ jk = σ j σ k rr jk σj is the standard deviation of the jth asset in the portfolio, σkis the standard deviation of the kth asset in the portfolio, rjk is the correlation coefficient between the jth and kth assets in the portfolio. What is Covariance?What is Covariance?
27.
5.27 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. A standardized statistical measure of the linear relationship between two variables. Its range is from –1.0–1.0 (perfect negative correlation), through 00 (no correlation), to +1.0+1.0 (perfect positive correlation). Correlation CoefficientCorrelation Coefficient
28.
5.28 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. A three asset portfolio: Col 1 Col 2 Col 3 Row 1 W1W1σ1,1 W1W2σ1,2 W1W3σ1,3 Row 2 W2W1σ2,1 W2W2σ2,2 W2W3σ2,3 Row 3 W3W1σ3,1 W3W2σ3,2 W3W3σ3,3 σj,k = is the covariance between returns for the jth and kth assets in the portfolio. Variance – Covariance MatrixVariance – Covariance Matrix
29.
5.29 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. You are creating a portfolio of Stock DStock D and StockStock BWBW (from earlier). You are investing $2,000$2,000 in Stock BWStock BW and $3,000$3,000 in Stock DStock D. Remember that the expected return and standard deviation of Stock BWStock BW is 9%9% and 13.15%13.15% respectively. The expected return and standard deviation of Stock DStock D is 8%8% and 10.65%10.65% respectively. The correlationcorrelation coefficientcoefficient between BW and D is 0.750.75. What is the expected return and standardWhat is the expected return and standard deviation of the portfolio?deviation of the portfolio? Portfolio Risk andPortfolio Risk and Expected Return ExampleExpected Return Example
30.
5.30 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. WBW = $2,000/$5,000 = 0.4 WWDD = $3,000/$5,000 = 0.60.6 RP = (WBW)(RBW) + (WWDD)(RRDD) RP = (0.4)(9%) + (0.60.6)(8%8%) RP = (3.6%) + (4.8%4.8%) = 8.4%8.4% Determining PortfolioDetermining Portfolio Expected ReturnExpected Return
31.
5.31 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. Two-asset portfolio: Col 1 Col 2 Row 1 WBWWBW σBW,BW WBWWD σBW,D Row 2 WD WBW σD,BW WD WD σD,D This represents the variance – covariance matrix for the two-asset portfolio. Determining PortfolioDetermining Portfolio Standard DeviationStandard Deviation
32.
5.32 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. Two-asset portfolio: Col 1 Col 2 Row 1 (0.4)(0.4)(0.0173) (0.4)(0.6)(0.0105) Row 2 (0.6)(0.4)(0.0105) (0.6)(0.6)(0.0113) This represents substitution into the variance – covariance matrix. Determining PortfolioDetermining Portfolio Standard DeviationStandard Deviation
33.
5.33 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. Two-asset portfolio: Col 1 Col 2 Row 1 (0.0028) (0.0025) Row 2 (0.0025) (0.0041) This represents the actual element values in the variance – covariance matrix. Determining PortfolioDetermining Portfolio Standard DeviationStandard Deviation
34.
5.34 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. σP = 0.0028 + (2)(0.0025) + 0.0041 σP = SQRT(0.0119) σP = 0.1091 or 10.91% A weighted average of the individual standard deviations is INCORRECT. Determining PortfolioDetermining Portfolio Standard DeviationStandard Deviation
35.
5.35 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. The WRONG way to calculate is a weighted average like: σP = 0.4 (13.15%) + 0.6(10.65%) σP = 5.26 + 6.39 = 11.65% 10.91% = 11.65% This is INCORRECT. Determining PortfolioDetermining Portfolio Standard DeviationStandard Deviation
36.
5.36 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. Stock C Stock D Portfolio ReturnReturn 9.00% 8.00% 8.64% Stand.Stand. Dev.Dev. 13.15% 10.65% 10.91% CVCV 1.46 1.33 1.26 The portfolio has the LOWEST coefficient of variation due to diversification. Summary of the PortfolioSummary of the Portfolio Return and Risk CalculationReturn and Risk Calculation
37.
5.37 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. Combining securities that are not perfectly, positively correlated reduces risk. INVESTMENTRETURN TIME TIMETIME SECURITY ESECURITY E SECURITY FSECURITY F CombinationCombination E and FE and F Diversification and theDiversification and the Correlation CoefficientCorrelation Coefficient
38.
5.38 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. Systematic RiskSystematic Risk is the variability of return on stocks or portfolios associated with changes in return on the market as a whole. Unsystematic RiskUnsystematic Risk is the variability of return on stocks or portfolios not explained by general market movements. It is avoidable through diversification. Total RiskTotal Risk = SystematicSystematic RiskRisk + UnsystematicUnsystematic RiskRisk Total Risk = SystematicTotal Risk = Systematic Risk + Unsystematic RiskRisk + Unsystematic Risk
39.
5.39 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. TotalTotal RiskRisk Unsystematic riskUnsystematic risk Systematic riskSystematic risk STDDEVOFPORTFOLIORETURN NUMBER OF SECURITIES IN THE PORTFOLIO Factors such as changes in the nation’s economy, tax reform by the Congress, or a change in the world situation. Total Risk = SystematicTotal Risk = Systematic Risk + Unsystematic RiskRisk + Unsystematic Risk
40.
5.40 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. TotalTotal RiskRisk Unsystematic riskUnsystematic risk Systematic riskSystematic risk STDDEVOFPORTFOLIORETURN NUMBER OF SECURITIES IN THE PORTFOLIO Factors unique to a particular company or industry. For example, the death of a key executive or loss of a governmental defense contract. Total Risk = SystematicTotal Risk = Systematic Risk + Unsystematic RiskRisk + Unsystematic Risk
41.
5.41 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. CAPM is a model that describes the relationship between risk and expected (required) return; in this model, a security’s expected (required) return is the risk-free raterisk-free rate plus a premiuma premium based on the systematic risksystematic risk of the security. Capital AssetCapital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)Pricing Model (CAPM)
42.
5.42 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. 1. Capital markets are efficient. 2. Homogeneous investor expectations over a given period. 3. Risk-freeRisk-free asset return is certain (use short- to intermediate-term Treasuries as a proxy). 4. Market portfolio contains only systematic risksystematic risk (use S&P 500 Index or similar as a proxy). CAPM AssumptionsCAPM Assumptions
43.
5.43 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. EXCESS RETURN ON STOCK EXCESS RETURN ON MARKET PORTFOLIO BetaBeta = RiseRise RunRun Narrower spreadNarrower spread is higher correlationis higher correlation Characteristic LineCharacteristic Line Characteristic LineCharacteristic Line
44.
5.44 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. Time Pd. Market My Stock 1 9.6% 12% 2 –15.4% –5% 3 26.7% 19% 4 –0.2% 3% 5 20.9% 13% 6 28.3% 14% 7 –5.9% –9% 8 3.3% –1% 9 12.2% 12% 10 10.5% 10% The Market and My Stock returns are “excess returns” and have the riskless rate already subtracted. Calculating “Beta”Calculating “Beta” on Your Calculatoron Your Calculator
45.
5.45 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. • Assume that the previous continuous distribution problem represents the “excess returns” of the market portfolio (it may still be in your calculator data worksheet – 2nd Data ). • Enter the excess market returns as “X” observations of: 9.6%, –15.4%, 26.7%, –0.2%, 20.9%, 28.3%, –5.9%, 3.3%, 12.2%, and 10.5%. • Enter the excess stock returns as “Y” observations of: 12%, –5%, 19%, 3%, 13%, 14%, –9%, –1%, 12%, and 10%. Calculating “Beta”Calculating “Beta” on Your Calculatoron Your Calculator
46.
5.46 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. • Let us examine again the statistical results (Press 2nd and then Stat ) • The market expected return and standard deviation is 9% and 13.32%. Your stock expected return and standard deviation is 6.8% and 8.76%. • The regression equation is Y= a + bX. Thus, our characteristic line is Y = 1.4448 + 0.595 X and indicates that our stock has a beta of 0.595. Calculating “Beta”Calculating “Beta” on Your Calculatoron Your Calculator
47.
5.47 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. An index of systematic risksystematic risk. It measures the sensitivity of a stock’s returns to changes in returns on the market portfolio. The betabeta for a portfolio is simply a weighted average of the individual stock betas in the portfolio. What is Beta?What is Beta?
48.
5.48 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. EXCESS RETURN ON STOCK EXCESS RETURN ON MARKET PORTFOLIO Beta < 1Beta < 1 (defensive)(defensive) Beta = 1Beta = 1 Beta > 1Beta > 1 (aggressive)(aggressive) Each characteristiccharacteristic lineline has a different slope. Characteristic LinesCharacteristic Lines and Different Betasand Different Betas
49.
5.49 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. RRjj is the required rate of return for stock j, RRff is the risk-free rate of return, ββjj is the beta of stock j (measures systematic risk of stock j), RRMM is the expected return for the market portfolio. Rj = Rf + βj(RM – Rf) Security Market LineSecurity Market Line
50.
5.50 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. Rj = Rf + βj(RM – Rf) ββMM = 1.01.0 Systematic Risk (Beta) RRff RRMM RequiredReturnRequiredReturn RiskRisk PremiumPremium Risk-freeRisk-free ReturnReturn Security Market LineSecurity Market Line
51.
5.51 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. • Obtaining Betas • Can use historical data if past best represents the expectations of the future • Can also utilize services like Value Line, Ibbotson Associates, etc. • Adjusted Beta • Betas have a tendency to revert to the mean of 1.0 • Can utilize combination of recent beta and mean • 2.22 (0.7) + 1.00 (0.3) = 1.554 + 0.300 = 1.854 estimate Security Market LineSecurity Market Line
52.
5.52 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. Lisa Miller at Basket Wonders is attempting to determine the rate of return required by their stock investors. Lisa is using a 6% R6% Rff and a long-term market expected rate ofmarket expected rate of returnreturn of 10%10%. A stock analyst following the firm has calculated that the firm betabeta is 1.21.2. What is the required rate of returnrequired rate of return on the stock of Basket Wonders? Determination of theDetermination of the Required Rate of ReturnRequired Rate of Return
53.
5.53 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. RRBWBW = RRff + ββj(RRMM – RRff) RRBWBW = 6%6% + 1.21.2(10%10% – 6%6%) RRBWBW = 10.8%10.8% The required rate of return exceeds the market rate of return as BW’s beta exceeds the market beta (1.0). BWs RequiredBWs Required Rate of ReturnRate of Return
54.
5.54 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. Lisa Miller at BW is also attempting to determine the intrinsic valueintrinsic value of the stock. She is using the constant growth model. Lisa estimates that the dividend next perioddividend next period will be $0.50$0.50 and that BW will growgrow at a constant rate of 5.8%5.8%. The stock is currently selling for $15. What is the intrinsic valueintrinsic value of the stock? Is the stock overover or underpricedunderpriced? Determination of theDetermination of the Intrinsic Value of BWIntrinsic Value of BW
55.
5.55 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. The stock is OVERVALUED as the market price ($15) exceeds the intrinsic valueintrinsic value ($10$10). $0.50$0.50 10.8%10.8% – 5.8%5.8% IntrinsicIntrinsic ValueValue = = $10$10 Determination of theDetermination of the Intrinsic Value of BWIntrinsic Value of BW
56.
5.56 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. Systematic Risk (Beta) RRff RequiredReturnRequiredReturn Direction of Movement Direction of Movement Stock YStock Y (Overpriced) Stock X (Underpriced) Security Market LineSecurity Market Line
57.
5.57 Van Horne
and Wachowicz, Fundamentals of Financial Management, 13th edition. © Pearson Education Limited 2009. Created by Gregory Kuhlemeyer. Small-firm EffectSmall-firm Effect Price/Earnings EffectPrice/Earnings Effect January EffectJanuary Effect These anomalies have presented serious challenges to the CAPM theory. Determination of theDetermination of the Required Rate of ReturnRequired Rate of Return
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