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The Road to Autonomous Applications
Adrian Bowles, PhD
Founder, STORM Insights, Inc.
Lead Analyst, AI, Aragon Research
inf...
• Overview and Opportunities
• Enabling Technologies
• Autonomous Application Categories
• A Matter of Trust
Copyright (c)...
ROBOCOP IS COOL, BUT…ROOMBA IS REAL
Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Autonomous: The ability to make one’s own decisions.
Automatic: A system that responds to environmental input with pre-pro...
OrientAct
Observe
Decide
World
Model
Boyd’s Loop
John Boyd (1927-1997)
FORMALIZING THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS
Copyright (...
Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Autonomous Intelligent
AUTONOMY VS INTELLIGENCE
Abstract
Ge...
Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Listen
Look
Touch
Smell
Taste
Your System
Learn
Model
Reaso...
Autonomous
Systems
Robots
Semi-Autonomous
Robot/automaton/android
Machine that performs one or more
physical tasks determi...
Autonomous
Systems
Consumer
Enterprise
Robots
Home
CleaningEldercare
Semi-Autonomous
Automobiles
Info
Retrieval
Autonomous...
Autonomous
Systems
Consumer
Public Sector Robots
Home
CleaningEldercare
Semi-Autonomous
UAVs
Automobiles
Buses
Trucks
Mult...
Autonomous
Systems
Consumer
Public Sector
Enterprise
Robots
Home
CleaningEldercare
Manufacturing
Semi-Autonomous
UAVs
Auto...
Low High
AutonomyAutomatic/
Reflexive
Autonomous
Independent Interdependent
Integration
World Model
ComprehensiveNone
CONT...
BigDog is a dynamically stable
quadruped robot created in 2005 by
Boston Dynamics with Foster-Miller, the
NASA Jet Propuls...
WHEN DO WE NEED HUMANS IN THE LOOP?
Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
SAE AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE CLASSIFICATION
Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
9/7/2016
homeai.info
LEVEL 4 IN 2021?
Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Google Patents Emergency Vehicle
Detection for Autonomous Cars
9/6/2016
INTEROPERABILITY WITH THE EXISTING INFRASTRUCTURE ...
Autonomous Systems Artificial General Intelligence
Machine
Learning
Cognitive ComputingThe Internet of Things
Understand
R...
Supervised Unsupervised
Deep
General
Reinforcement
Learning by example,
using training data. Strategies based
on performan...
Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
CONTRASTING AI APPROACHES USED FOR INTELLIGENT AUTONOMOUS S...
Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
HOW TO DELEGATE AUTONOMY
ALGORITHMS
&
RULES
DATA
AutoSys
Decision-making…
Does it plan?
Generative planning?
Use feedback?
Coordinate?
Can it:
move?
in the air?
on land?
o...
Train
Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
A MATTER OF TRUST
Verify
Validate
Delegate
Evaluate
T...
Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights reserved.
PROGRESS?
Alex Coppel / Herald Sun/Getty Images
Fernando Alonso Walks Away from a 46G Impact
Will F1 become fully autonomous?
Copyri...
DESIGN CONSTRAINTS - DECISIONS UNDER DURESS
Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
DESIGN DECISIONS/CONSTRAINTS
Independent vs Collaborative
E...
OrientAct
Observe
Decide
Small
Model
OrientAct
Observe
Decide
Small
Model
Feedback
Sensor
Sensor
Effector
Effector
COLLABO...
•A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction,
allow a human being to come to harm.
•A robot must obey orders...
adrian@storminsights.com
Twitter @ajbowles
Skype ajbowles
If you would like to connect on LinkedIn, please
let me know tha...
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Smart Data Webinar: The Road to Autonomous Applications

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Autonomous systems are like teenagers. The decision to trust one to complete a task without strict supervision depends on the individual and the task. Performance and trust are variables on spectra. As with teens, some autonomous systems will be ready before we are ready to trust them, and some will take a little longer.

As we get comfortable with delegating routine domestic tasks to home robots and prepare for a world with self-driving cars and beyond, it is important to understand the opportunities and limits for autonomous systems. Participants in this webinar will learn about the technologies that enable autonomous systems, and how to critically assess design constraints for independent and collaborating autonomous solutions.

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Smart Data Webinar: The Road to Autonomous Applications

  1. 1. The Road to Autonomous Applications Adrian Bowles, PhD Founder, STORM Insights, Inc. Lead Analyst, AI, Aragon Research info@storminsights.com DECEMBER 14, 2017
  2. 2. • Overview and Opportunities • Enabling Technologies • Autonomous Application Categories • A Matter of Trust Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved. AGENDA
  3. 3. ROBOCOP IS COOL, BUT…ROOMBA IS REAL Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  4. 4. Autonomous: The ability to make one’s own decisions. Automatic: A system that responds to environmental input with pre-programmed responses. Semi-autonomous: A system capable of making [some] decisions based on context, and relying on human intervention or override for others. A single system may have multiple modes. AUTONOMOUS VS AUTOMATIC Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  5. 5. OrientAct Observe Decide World Model Boyd’s Loop John Boyd (1927-1997) FORMALIZING THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  6. 6. Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved. Autonomous Intelligent AUTONOMY VS INTELLIGENCE Abstract Generalize Learn Understand ReasonIndependent
  7. 7. Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved. Listen Look Touch Smell Taste Your System Learn Model Reason Understand INTERACTING WITH THE OUTSIDE WORLD
  8. 8. Autonomous Systems Robots Semi-Autonomous Robot/automaton/android Machine that performs one or more physical tasks determined by preprogrammed instructions or determined by autonomous reasoning. Autonomous Systems ROBOTS VS AUTONOMOUS SYSTEMS Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  9. 9. Autonomous Systems Consumer Enterprise Robots Home CleaningEldercare Semi-Autonomous Automobiles Info Retrieval Autonomous Systems Robot/automaton/android Machine that performs one or more physical tasks determined by preprogrammed instructions or determined by autonomous reasoning. ROBOTS VS AUTONOMOUS SYSTEMS Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  10. 10. Autonomous Systems Consumer Public Sector Robots Home CleaningEldercare Semi-Autonomous UAVs Automobiles Buses Trucks Multi- peds Info Retrieval Autonomous Systems Robot/automaton/android Machine that performs one or more physical tasks determined by preprogrammed instructions or determined by autonomous reasoning. ROBOTS VS AUTONOMOUS SYSTEMS Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  11. 11. Autonomous Systems Consumer Public Sector Enterprise Robots Home CleaningEldercare Manufacturing Semi-Autonomous UAVs Automobiles Buses Trucks Inventory Mgmt Multi- peds Info Retrieval CognitiveCommerce Apps Network Monitoring Autonomous Systems Robot/automaton/android hine that performs one or more physical tasks determined by preprogrammed instructions or autonomous reasoning. ROBOTS VS AUTONOMOUS SYSTEMS Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  12. 12. Low High AutonomyAutomatic/ Reflexive Autonomous Independent Interdependent Integration World Model ComprehensiveNone CONTROL & COMPLEXITY Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  13. 13. BigDog is a dynamically stable quadruped robot created in 2005 by Boston Dynamics with Foster-Miller, the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, and the Harvard University Concord Field Station.[1] It was funded by DARPA, but the project was shelved after the BigDog was deemed too loud for combat.[2] BigDog. (2016, August 19). In Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia. Retrieved 19:15, September 7, 2016, from https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=BigDog&oldid=735286400 MQ-9 Reaper Unmanned Areal Vehicle (UAV/Drone) SOMETIMES, A LITTLE AUTONOMY GOES A LONG WAY. Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  14. 14. WHEN DO WE NEED HUMANS IN THE LOOP? Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  15. 15. SAE AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE CLASSIFICATION Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  16. 16. 9/7/2016 homeai.info LEVEL 4 IN 2021? Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  17. 17. Google Patents Emergency Vehicle Detection for Autonomous Cars 9/6/2016 INTEROPERABILITY WITH THE EXISTING INFRASTRUCTURE IS CRITICAL Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  18. 18. Autonomous Systems Artificial General Intelligence Machine Learning Cognitive ComputingThe Internet of Things Understand Reason Learn Domain-independent problem solving Connectivity Control AUTONOMOUS SYSTEMS IN CONTEXT Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved. Enabling Technologies IoT……Sensors, Intelligence at the Edge… Vision Technologies… LIDAR
  19. 19. Supervised Unsupervised Deep General Reinforcement Learning by example, using training data. Strategies based on performance feedback. Discovers patterns based on experience with data. Biologically-inspired ML approach. Leverages simple processing units - analogous to neurosynaptic elements - organized in layers that collaborate to solve complex problems. Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved. MACHINE LEARNING FOR AUTONOMOUS APPLICATIONS
  20. 20. Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved. CONTRASTING AI APPROACHES USED FOR INTELLIGENT AUTONOMOUS SYSTEMS Knowledge-Centric Data-Centric/ Deep Learning Representation Learning Use ML to discover the representation Lots of Up-Front Effort Developing the Algorithms or Rules Should have Complete Transparency Identify the Categories Let the Data Drive the Process Can Become a Black Box ATTRIBUTES APPROACH Use ML to discover the mappingUse experts to create the representation and mapping
  21. 21. Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved. HOW TO DELEGATE AUTONOMY ALGORITHMS & RULES DATA
  22. 22. AutoSys Decision-making… Does it plan? Generative planning? Use feedback? Coordinate? Can it: move? in the air? on land? on/under water? see? hear? smell? taste? feel? learn? CLASSIFYING AUTONOMOUS SYSTEMS Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved. Segmentaton
  23. 23. Train Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved. A MATTER OF TRUST Verify Validate Delegate Evaluate TRUST DecisionsPreparation
  24. 24. Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights reserved. PROGRESS?
  25. 25. Alex Coppel / Herald Sun/Getty Images Fernando Alonso Walks Away from a 46G Impact Will F1 become fully autonomous? Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved. FROM INFORM/ADVISE TO AUTOMATE
  26. 26. DESIGN CONSTRAINTS - DECISIONS UNDER DURESS Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  27. 27. Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved. DESIGN DECISIONS/CONSTRAINTS Independent vs Collaborative Execution Constraints Augment vs Automate
  28. 28. OrientAct Observe Decide Small Model OrientAct Observe Decide Small Model Feedback Sensor Sensor Effector Effector COLLABORATIVE AUTONOMY - MULTIPLE SENSORS & EFFECTORS Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  29. 29. •A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm. •A robot must obey orders given it by human beings except where such orders would conflict with the First Law. •A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Law. “Handbook of Robotics, 56th Edition, 2058AD” in Runaround, a 1942 short story ISAAC ASIMOV - THREE LAWS OF ROBOTICS Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  30. 30. adrian@storminsights.com Twitter @ajbowles Skype ajbowles If you would like to connect on LinkedIn, please let me know that you that you registered for the Smart Data webinar series. KEEP IN TOUCH 2018 SmartData Webinar Dates & Topics January 11 AI At The Edge: Pushing Intelligence to Fog Computing Nodes February 8 A Pragmatic AI Maturity Model: Choosing the Right AI Technologies Based on Application Requirements and User Attributes March 8 Machine Learning Update: An Overview of Technology Maturity and Product Vendors

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