China's challeng; a lesson from history?

!
Seventeenth'Century'Mercantilism,'Trade'&'Empire:'!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
An!Analogue!of!Decline!for!China?!
David!K.!Cherrett!
ABSTRACT:'
In!the!early!twenty!first!century,!the!top!7!politico!economic!entities!control!less!of!
the!world’s!landmass!than!at!any!period!since!1650.!This!reduction!in!terraE
concentration!has!had!two!obvious!effects.!Firstly,!we!are!witnessing!a!surge!in!
resource!nationalism!as!states!look!to!secure!economic!resources!increasingly!
perceived!to!reside!outside!the!traditional!borders!of!the!nation!states.!Secondly,!
this!economic!imperative!has!coincided!with!the!rise!of!a!neoEmercantilism,!not!just!
in!the!actions!of!the!nation!state!but!also!as!a!frame!of!reference!for!commentators!
looking!to!predict!the!champions!of!the!new!great!game.!As!China!has!been!the!
most!forthright!and!effective!of!the!neomercantile!challengers!to!the!existing!order,!
it!follows,!the!neomercantilists!argue,!that!the!Chinese!state!will!triumph!and!
become!the!world’s!biggest!superpower.!It!is!the!contention!of!this!paper!however!
that!if!we!reverse!the!analysis!and!instead!ask!in!the!last!period!of!resource!
nationalism!and!reduced!terra!concentration!ratios,!the!seventeenth!century,!who!
was!expected!to!triumph!and!who!ultimately!triumphed!and!examine!the!causes!of!
these!outcomes,!then!by!analogy!we!would!draw!very!different!conclusions!as!to!the!
likely!winner!of!today’s!struggle!for!global!politicoEeconomic!hegemony.!
!!!!!!

17th!Century!Mercantilism,!Trade!&!Empire:!An!Analogue!of!Decline!for!China?!
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September!2010! 2!
!
1. The! seventeenth! century,! mercantilism! and!
expectations!
The!‘long!century’,!loosely!defined!as!opening!with!the!failure!of!
the!Spanish!Armada!1588!and!closing!with!the!Treaty!of!Utrecht!
1713!that!defined!the!failure!of!French!ambition!at!the!end!of!the!
War!of!the!Spanish!Succession,!should!be!enjoying!a!resurgence!
of! interest.! For! whilst! attempts! to! compare! the! postOindustrial!
age!with!previous!centuries!are!wrought!with!difficulty,!the!early!
twenty!first!century!is!displaying!a!number!of!politicoOeconomic!
characteristics! that! were! definitive! to! its! earlier! cousin! the!
seventeenth! century.! ! From! a! sluggish! price! environment1,! to!
surging! resource! nationalism! given! a! perceived! shortage! of!
industrial! resources2,! there! are! shared! uncertainties! that! the!
significant!differences!cannot!obliterate.!The!similarities!can!be!
distilled! into! one! striking! observation.! The! top! seven! politico!
economic!entities!control!less!of!the!world’s!landmass!today!than!
at!any!period!since!1650.!!
!
Such!a!restriction!in!the!terraOconcentration!ratio!has!resulted!in!
both! periods! being! dominated! by! concern! over! resource!
availability.!In!the!words!of!one!historian!of!the!Spanish!Empire,!
the!seventeenth!century!witnessed!the!spreading!of!“the!roots!of!
European! imperialism! (which)! lay! in! the! competition! for!
resources!among!its!dynastic!states”3!Meanwhile!Goldman!Sachs!
has! coined! the! phrase! the! “revenge! of! the! (old)! political!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
1! See!for!example!Thomas!J.!Sargent,!“The!Conquest!of!American!Inflation”!Princeton!University!
Press!,!2001!for!a!technical!analysis!of!the!control!of!inflation!past!1970.!For!17th!century,!data!
series!compiled!by!Milja!van!Tielhof!and!Jan!Luiten!van!Zanden.!
2! See!for!example!Jeff!Currie!et!al,!Goldman!Sachs!March!14,!2008!Commodities!Research!“The!
Revenge!of!the!Old!‘Political’!Economy”.!!
3!Maltby,!“Rise!and!Fall!of!the!Spanish!Empire”!2009.!He!goes!on!to!identify!that!during!much!of!
the!16th!and!17th!century!warfare!consumed!ten!times!more!revenue!than!all!other!functions!of!
Spanish!government!combined.!

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September!2010! 3!
economy”! to! describe! the! state! based! competition! for!
commodities!in!the!21st!century!and!the!secular!bull!market!in!
commodity!prices!experienced!since!20044.!!
!
Securing! resources! may! be! a! shared! characteristic! of! both!
epochs;! but! the! mechanics! of! securing! supply! has! of! course!
changed.! Currently! that! competition! is! played! out! in! the!
commercial! world,! between! corporate! and! sovereign! wealth!
funds,! whereas! the! seventeenth! century! used! combat! as! the!
primary!means!of!control!of!the!exchange!of!goods.!“War!rather!
than! the! promotion! of! social! or! economic! welfare,! was! the!
primary!business!of!the!early!modern!state”!argues!Maltby.!!
!
Nevertheless,! though! the! twenty! first! century! has! yet! to! have!
seen! outright! resource! wars,! the! scale! &! nature! of! commercial!
competition! has! increased! dramatically! in! recent! years.! The!
recent! sentencing! to! seven! years! imprisonment! of! a! senior!
Australian! mining! executive! by! the! Chinese! state! was! widely!
seen!as!an!unprecedented!attempt!to!politicize!to!the!level!of!a!
national! confrontation! an! ostensibly! commercial! dispute.! ! The!
perceived! intransigence! of! “Australian”! mining! corporations! in!
iron! ore! price! negotiations,! a! commodity! key! to! the! health! of!
China’s!benchmark!steel!industry5,!following!the!blocking!of!an!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
4! Goldman! Sachs! March! 14,! 2008! Commodities! Research! “The! Revenge! of! the! Old! ‘Political’!
Economy”.!This!seminal!piece!by!Jeff!Currie!and!his!team!first!highlighted!the!similarity!in!land!
control!between!17th!and!21st!centuries.!Spot!prices!for!commodities!have!doubled!since!2004.!!
5! See! for! example! Jakarta! Globe,! March! 29,! 2010.! “The! arrests! of! the! Rio! Tinto! employees! in!
August!were!initially!thought!linked!to!Beijing’s!anger!over!high!prices!it!paid!for!iron!ore!—!a!key!
commodity!for!China’s!booming!economy.!Rio!Tinto..!is!one!of!the!top!suppliers!of!ore!to!China!
and!a!key!industry!negotiator!in!price!talks!with!China’s!stateOowned!steel!mills.!!!The!secrets!the!
four! Rio! Tinto! employees! were! accused! of! obtaining! were! largely! related! to! the! annual! price!
negotiations.”!See!also!summary!from!Stratfor,!14th!July!2009!“Anshan!Iron!and!Steel!Group!Corp.!
came!under!investigation!on!July!14,!as!the!Chinese!Ministry!of!State!Security!continues!to!round!
up!people!involved!in!the!Rio!Tinto!espionage!case.!This!is!the!first!espionage!case!since!China!has!
passed!amendments!to!its!laws!guarding!state!secrets!at!the!March!National!People’s!Congress,!

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September!2010! 4!
attempt! by! a! Chinese! aluminium! producer! to! take! over! assets!
from! Australia’s! leading! mining! company6,! allegedly! prompted!
the! Chinese! state! to! escalate! a! trade! dispute! to! the! diplomatic!
level.!!!
!
If!it!is!reasonable!to!consider!the!seventeenth!century!with!one!
eye!on!the!twenty!first!it!may!also!be!instructive!to!identify!why!
some! economies! succeeded! in! the! Early! Modern! period,! some!
failed!and!what!characteristics!they!shared,!with!a!view!in!part!to!
consider!implications!for!the!twenty!first!century!competitors.!!
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2. The!seventeenth!century!trade!competitors!
The! single! most! striking! observation! concerning! early! modern!
trade! competition! is! the! disparity! between! expectation! at! the!
beginning! of! the! period! and! actualisation! by! its! close.! Early!
sixteenth!century!“Spain,!scarcely!unified!under!the!domination!
of!Castile,!appeared!destined!under!the!new!Hapsburg!dynasty!to!
realize! the! medieval! mirage! of! a! universal,! that! is! world! wide!
catholic! empire”7.! However! the! outcome! was! very! different.!
Within! 100! years! economic! wealth! (silver)! had! “became!
inextricably!involved!with!defending!the!dynastic!and!religious!
hegemony!of!the!House!of!Hapsburg…colonial!silver!reinforced!
and!impoverished!an!outmoded!society.”!Spain!was!reduced!to!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
which!expanded!the!scope!of!economic!and!commercial!espionage.!Although!many!questions!still!
linger!on!how!this!will!affect!SinoOAustralian!government!relations!and!whether!this!qualifies!as!
an!espionage!case,!a!state!agenda!to!reconsolidate!central!control!over!the!Chinese!economy!is!
one!of!the!main!drivers!behind!Beijing’s!crackdown!on!Rio!Tinto.”!
6!So!also!the!escalating!dispute!between!China!and!Japan!over!fishing!rights!manifested!itself!in!
resource!conflict.!China!banned!the!export!of!rare!earths!to!Japan!following!the!political!spat!over!
the!fisherman!according!to!the!New!York!Times.!The!initial!embargo!will!last!through!the!end!of!
this!month.!China!had!accounted!for!97%!of!world!supply!of!rare!earth!minerals!in!2009,!and!a!
72%!cut!in!its!export!quotas!in!H2!has!already!sent!prices!soaring.!China’s!Ministry!of!Foreign!
Trade!has!denied!the!report.!
7!Stein,!“Silver,!Trade!&!War:!Spain!&!America!in!the!making!of!Early!Modern!Europe”,!Baltimore,!
2000,!pg!104!

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September!2010! 5!
“marginality!and!growing!backwardness.”!So!also!it!is!the!story!
with!that!other!colossus!of!the!early!phase!of!the!period,!France.!
“Once!omnipotent!in!the!late!seventeenth!century,!France,!after!
the! loss! of! Canada,! seemed! ‘feeble,! flabby! &! decadent’! to!
Gandara,!a!Spanish!anglophile!of!the!1750s.”8!!Yet!the!true!Titans!
of! the! period,! England! and! Holland,! were! of! relatively! minor!
international!consequence!in!the!middle!of!the!sixteenth!century.!
!
It! is! worth! examining! the! causes! behind! these! vastly! different!
trajectories! before! daring! to! draw! implications! for! our! own!
century.! Nevertheless,! the! story! of! the! failure! of! imperial!
ambition! is! at! least! a! gentle! reminder! of! the! lesson! in! hubris!
history!delivers!proponents!of!inevitable!outcomes!in!any!period.!
Such!awareness!may!be!of!use!in!discussion!of!the!inevitability!of!
the!Asian!century.!
!
3. The! Nature! of! political! organization:! a! precursor! to!
trading!success.!
To!understand!the!common!theme!in!commercial!empire!in!the!
Early! Modern! period,! begin! with! the! winners.! In! his! masterful!
study!on!Dutch!trade,!Jonathan!Israel!noted!“the!ability!of!state!
institutions!to!further!the!objectives!of!the!mercantile!sector!has!
been! identified! as! a! most! significant! factor! in! the! rise! of! the!
Dutch!Republic!in!the!seventeenth!century”9.!Such!causality!was!
not!limited!to!the!Dutch!republic.!So!too,!British!success!was!as!
much!a!function!of!political!organization!as!military!victory.!As!
one!observer!of!the!period!notes,!“Britain!dominated!France!in!
the!nineteenth!century!because!it!could!organize!public!finances!
most! effectively! to! wage! war,! not! because! of! the! individual!
successes! of! its! battlefield! commanders.! British! superiority! in!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
8!Stein,!pg!257!
9!J.Israel,!“Dutch!Primacy!In!World!Trade!1585O1740”,!Oxford,!1989,!pg!12!

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September!2010! 6!
this! field! of! public! finance! was! directly! related! to! British!
commercial!activities”10!which!in!turn!grew!out!of!seventeenth!
century!trading!success.!!!
!
In! examining! the! causes! of! trading! success,! local! and! regional!
studies!have!proved!a!rich!seem!to!mine.!Local!studies!of!British!
trading! activity! have! allowed! historians! to! explore! the!
relationship!between!the!state!and!the!trader!in!great!detail.!One!
feature! recurring! in! studies! of! trade! in! the! subcontinent,! for!
example,! is! the! emphasis! on! the! role! of! private! traders! in!
conducting! actions! that! led! to! English! commercial! victory! over!
the! French! in! India11,! rather! than! top! down! political! will! from!
London.! Critically! however,! the! success! of! the! English! private!
trader! was! not! the! product! of! his! innate! superiority! over! the!
French! negociant.! Indeed,! as! the! latter’s! successes! in! the!
Canadian! pelt! &! fishing! markets12! demonstrates,! when! French!
traders!were!freed!by!the!accidents!of!geography!or!whim!from!
direct!political!interference!they!could!compete!very!effectively,!
unlike!their!less!successful!comrades!in!the!subcontinent.!Rather,!
mercantile!success!was!a!function!of!a!(sometimes!unconscious)!
political!organisation!that!encouraged!commercial!innovation.!It!
is! significant! that! this! could! mean! an! absence! of! involvement;!
certainly!this!condition!was!notably!lacking!in!the!more!controlO
orientated!economies!of!say!France!and!Spain.!
!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
10!Rothermund!“Asian!Trade!&!European!Expansion!in!the!Age!of!mercantilism”!1981!pg!xii!
11!I.B.Watson,!“Foundation!for!Empire:!English!Private!Trade”,!New!Delhi,!1980;!P.Nightingale,!
‘Trade!&!Empire!in!Western!India,!1784O1806”,!London,!1970!
12!see!for!example!the!map!of!Augustine!FitzHugh!“a!chart!of!Newfoundland”,!Wapping,!1693,!
purporting!to!show!the!expanse!of!French!fisheries!as!against!the!small!proportion!of!sea!claimed!
by!English!fishermen!graphically!illustrates!British!concern!at!the!apparent!success!of!French!
traders!in!the!region.!

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September!2010! 7!
Quantifying!such!a!claim!is!of!course!difficult.!However,!turning!
to! another! market! popular! with! historians! of! local! trade! it! is!
interesting!to!see!the!sheer!size!of!the!role!of!private!traders!in!
British! trading! activity! in! China,! in! contrast! to! the! strictly!
controlled!French!trading!system.!!
!
Tonnage'China'Trade,'Canton'(metric'tonne)''
We! can! assert! that! the! growing! role! of! private! traders!
corresponded! with! the! period! when! British! dominance! in! the!
Eastern! trade! accelerated.! Establishing! causation! is! more!
complex,!but!the!correlation!at!least!points!to!the!utility!of!the!
private! trader! in! developing! growth! in! trade! share! if! not! in!
actually!causing!it.!
!
Critically!of!course,!this!does!not!assume!the!private!individual!
per!se!was!a!superior!trader!to!the!state!organization.!Indeed,!the!
Figure'1.'source:'Rothermund'

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September!2010! 8!
Dutch!also!enjoyed!success!over!commercial!competitors!in!the!
East,! yet! rather! than! emphasizing! the! private! trader,! here! we!
need!to!consider!the!unique!collaboration!between!VOC!(Dutch!
East! India! Company)! and! the! Dutch! state.! Although! “most! of!
Dutch! trade! and! shipping…was! characterized! by! free!
enterprise”13,! the! VOC! made! a! unique! contribution! to! Dutch!
commercial! success.! From! its! founding! in! 1602,! the! VOC! as! a!
trade! body! enjoyed! a! much! closer! relationship! with! the! state!
than!that!in!England,!and!a!far!more!successful!one!than!that!in!
France.! As! Israel! observes,! “the! VOC! was! a! unique! politicoO
commercial! institution,! and! one! that! could! not! be! imitated!
anywhere!else!in!the!world,!because!the!United!Provinces!were!
the!world’s!only!federal!republic!in!which!a!collectivity!of!town!
governments,!committed!to!the!advancement!of!trade,!industry!
and!navigation,!also!wielded!great!military!and!naval!power.”!!As!
a! result! the! VOC! was! relatively! free! of! direct! interference!
enabling!it!to!act!like!a!private!trader!rather!than!an!extension!of!
the!state.!!
!
Contrast! the! status! of! the! VOC! with! its! sister! organization! in!
France.! Cole! notes! the! ongoing! interference! of! the! state!
appointed! controleurOgeneral! in! Levant! trade;! controlling!
shipping! patterns,! banning! sailors! from! the! right! to! trade.!
Meanwhile,! the! Dutch! model! was! not! only! of! relevance! in! the!
East.! Rather! “the! unique! suitability! and! aptitude! of! the! Dutch!
federal!state!for!the!advancement!and!protection!of!trade!in!the!
seventeenth!century...!also!powerfully!buttressed!maritime!and!
commercial! expansion! internally,! through! its! impact! on! public!
and!private!conduct.!The!United!Provinces,!as!a!republic,!enjoyed!
all! the! advantages! of! commercial! and! financial! stability! which!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
13!M.Tielhof,!“the!Mother!of!all!Trades”,!Baltic!Grain!Trade!in!Amsterdam!from!the!late!16th!
Century!to!the!early!19th!century”,!Brill,!2002!

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September!2010! 9!
early! modern! princely! and! absolutist! regimes! generally!
lacked.”14!It!is!therefore!neither!the!private!trader!nor!the!state!
trade! in! itself! that! succeeded;! rather! it! was! the! nature! of! the!
merchants! relationship! with! the! state! and! visa! versa! that! lay!
behind!commercial!success.!
!
Let!us!explore!the!character!of!the!relationship!between!trader!
and!state!further.!One!way!to!illustrate!the!differences!in!attitude!
towards! the! organization! of! trading! systems! is! comparing! the!
iconography! of! authority! in! the! period.! Consider! for! example!
from!Holland!Abraham!Storck’s!“A!River!View”15,!painted!in!the!
last!decade!of!the!seventeenth!century!with!Dutch!trading!power!
at!or!just!passed!its!peak.!In!this!typical!Dutch!riverscape!we!see!
in!the!centre!of!the!image!a!Dutch!'boeier!yacht',!and!on!the!right!
a!'tjalk',!a!Dutch!sprigOsail!barge,!which!served!as!the!workhorse!
of! the! short! haul,! trades.! Tucked! in! behind! is! a! 'statenjacht',! a!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
14!Israel,!pg!412!
15!National!Gallery!London!

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September!2010! 10!
vessel!used!by!the!States!General!(the!chamber!of!representative!
of!the!Dutch!United!Provinces),!for!the!transport!of!its!members!
or!foreign!dignitaries,!with!the!arms!of!the!Province!of!Holland!
on!her!stern!and!a!Dutch!ensign.!The!trinity!of!figures!places!the!
vessel!of!state!alongside!two!trading!barges!typical!of!the!bulk!
trades.!Together!trade!and!state!approach!the!military!trappings!
of! imperium,! a! warship,! approaching! from! the! opposite!
direction;!empire!as!a!function!of!trade!and!state.!
!
In! contrast! Spanish! art! shows! a! remarkable! dearth! of! the!
iconography!of!state!involvement!in!trade!for!an!economy!that!
“depended!absolutely!on!specie!and!principally!on!the!treasure!
of!the!Indies!landed!at!Seville!for!the!king.”16!Where!the!imagery!
exists,!such!as!in!the!cartography!of!the!period,!the!emphasis!is!
on! the! imperial! rather! than! the! commercial! strength! of! the!
crown.! Gutierrez’! “Map! of! Empire”! 1562! displays! Philip! II! as! a!
new! Neptune,! bedecked! in! martial! glory,! warding! off! the!
monsters!that!threaten!his!imperium.!But!not!a!trading!boat!in!
sight,!unless!we!consider!the!galleon!to!the!top!right,!scuttling!for!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
16!Parker,!“The!Army!of!Flanders”,!1972,!quoted!Stein!pg!40,!interestingly!the!National!Maritime!
Museum!at!Greenwich,!home!to!an!impressive!collection!of!17th!century!marine!art!houses!257!
works!from!the!17th!century!of!which!only!1!(and!that!is!a!painting!of!the!Somerset!House!
conference)!is!by!a!Spaniard.!The!Maritime!museum!in!Barcelona!has!no!equivalent!collection.!!

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September!2010! 11!
shelter! under! the! imperial! wing.! The! message! is! clear.! Empire!
was!secured!by!power!and!only!then!could!trade!flow.!
!
Now,!it!is!important!to!recognize!that!the!distinction!in!attitudes!
of! state! and! merchant! was! not! clearOcut.! As! Gauci’s! work! on!
attitudes!to!seventeenth!century!British!merchants!attests17,!the!
English! establishment! view! of! the! merchant! was! ambiguous! to!
say!the!least.!Nonetheless!it!does!appear!that!national!attitudes!
towards!the!merchant,!and!the!organizations!that!supported!this!
attitude,!were!distinct!between!the!nation!states.!!
!
4. Economic!models!of!trading!success!
So!why!was!political!organization!more!central!to!trade!success!
rather! than! say! financial! conditions?! After! all,! contemporaries!
were!very!clear!as!to!the!cause!of!Dutch!trading!success.!As!Sir!
Josiah!Child,!governor!of!the!East!India!Company!and!proponent!
of! mercantilism,! bemoaned! in! 1672,! the! cause! of! Dutch!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
17!P.Gauci,!“The!Politics!of!Trade,!The!overseas!merchant!in!state!and!society!1660O1720”,!OUP,!
2003!
Figure'2.'Source:'Tielhof'&'Van'Zanden'

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September!2010! 12!
supremacy!was!clear.!Low!Dutch!interest!rates!“hath!robbed!us!
totally! of! all! trade! not! inseparably! annexed! to! this! Kingdom!
(England)”.!Dutch!merchants!borrowed!at!2.5%!whereas!rates!in!
England!were!5%!and!Germany!higher!still.!
!
It! is! important! however! to! put! financial! conditions! as! a!
prerequisite! for! growth! in! context.! Using! the! data! compiled! by!
Milja!van!Tielhof18!and!Jan!Luiten!van!Zanden!which!basis!prices!
at! 100! for! 1450O75! (see! figure! 2)! we! see! prices! rose! 800%!
between!1560O1660!with!resultant!upward!pressure!on!interest!
rates!yet!this!was!the!Golden!age!of!Dutch!prosperity.!In!contrast,!
prices!and!rates!actually!stabilised!1660O1670,!the!very!period!
when!this!hegemony!came!under!threat,!while!interest!rates!in!
the!period!of!decline!were!2O3%!lower!than!in!the!Golden!age.!
Indeed,!Dutch!interest!rates!remained!very!low!into!the!1790s,!a!
period! when! their! share! in! trade! had! dramatically! declined.!
Cheaper!interest!rates!may!have!been!commercially!significant!in!
a! high! rate! environment,! but! became! far! less! so! as! the! panO
European!rate!environment!eased.!Interest!rate!differential!alone!
is!not!therefore!sufficient!to!explain!Dutch!trading!success.!
!
An! alternative! economic! thesis,! Hamilton’s! famous! “profit!
inflation”! model! of! early! modern! economic! advancement! has!
been!similarly!critiqued19.!In!this!model!the!seventeenth!century!
saw! prices! raise! more! than! wages,! resulting! in! supraOnormal!
returns!for!industrial!owners!that!were!ploughed!back!into!new!
technology,! particularly! smelting.! The! result! was! a! proto!
industrial! revolution! and! English! &! Dutch! trading! supremacy.!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
18!Milja!van!Tielhof!!and!Jan!Luiten!van!Zanden!
19!see!J.Munro,!“Money,!prices,!wages,!and!‘profit!inflation’!in!Spain,!the!Southern!Netherlands,!and!
England!during!the!Price!Revolution!era,!ca.!1520!O!ca.!1650”!Department!of!Economics,!
University!of!Toronto,!May!2008!

!
September!2010! 13!
However,! for! half! a! decade! now! the! data! assumptions! of! this!
model! have! been! under! attack.! Munro! points! out! firstly,! citing!
David!Felix,!“there!is!no!correlation!either!between!the!degree!of!
price!inflation!and!the!degree!of!profit!inflation,!or!between!the!
rates! of! profit! inflation! and! the! apparent! rates! of! industrial!
growth”20.!Secondly!and!even!more!strikingly,!he!demonstrates!
that!even!if!there!was!a!connection!it!did!not!apply!in!the!earlyO
modern!Low!Countries.!In!his!study!of!Brabant,!a!region!which!
throughout!this!period!“was!economically!much!more!advanced!
than!England,!let!alone!Spain:!with!far!more!extensive!and!richer!
industrial,! commercial,! and! financial! sectors! …! Brabant! almost!
consistently! experienced,! in! Keynes’! terminology,! ‘Profit!
Deflation’,! at! least! in! terms! of! the! ratio! of! nominal! wages! to!
industrial! prices,! without! any! apparent! negative! consequences!
for!industrial!growth,!certainly!not!during!the!twoOthirds!of!the!
sixteenth!century!preceding!the!Revolt!and!during!the!first!two!
decades!of!the!seventeenth”21!
!
Low! interest! rates! or! profit! inflation! arguments! alone! cannot!
fully! explain! Dutch! or! English! success! despite! the! claims! of!
contemporaries.!A!purely!mechanistic!argument!for!empire!does!
not!hold!up.!
!
5. Innovation!lead!to!success!–!Dutch,!English!&!French!
trading!models!
Rather,! in! the! cases! of! the! Dutch! Republic! &! England,! the!
organization! of! the! state! was! key.! And! above! all,! that!
organization!was!not!necessarily!conscious;!it!was!an!accident!of!
the!political!origins!of!the!respective!state.!But!it!had!a!shared!
characteristic:!the!ability!to!leave!merchants!to!innovate,!either!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
20!Munro!pg!15!citing!Felix,!‘Profit!Inflation’,!pp.!441O43!
21!Munro!pg!21O23!

!
September!2010! 14!
as! private! traders! or! as! trading! bodies,! whilst! protecting! their!
interests! at! home! and! abroad,! through! coercion,! taxation! and!
law.!Let!us!be!clear:!by!innovation!we!mean!an!economic!act;!to!
innovate! is! to! optimize! the! allocation! of! surpluses! (whether! in!
bulk,! rich,! producer! or! factor! markets)! to! areas! of! deficit,! and!
visa!versa,!to!the!mutual!benefit!of!trader!and!state.!So!also,!we!
assume! an! antithesis! to! innovation,! subcontracting.! Here! we!
define! subcontracting! as! the! suboptimal! or! uneconomic!
allocation!of!resources.!This!definition!of!course!means!an!action!
is! judged! by! its! effect! not! its! intent;! two! similar! actions! in!
different!states!therefore!can!be!opposite!types!of!behaviour.!So!
we!can!describe!the!act!of!the!East!India!Company!tendering!the!
building!of!boats!to!subcontractors!as!being!an!act!of!innovation!
in! that! the! (unintended)! effect! was! to! stimulate! new! vessel!
design!for!the!commercial!benefit!of!all!parties.!In!contrast!the!
Spanish! government’s! lease! of! trade! offices! resulted! only! in!
shortOterm!financial!benefit!and!longerOterm!abuse!of!office!and!
as!such!under!our!definition!was!an!act!of!subcontracting.!
!
It!is!interesting!in!the!context!of!discussing!attitudes!of!the!state!
to! innovation! to! compare! the! French! state! with! the! Dutch! and!
English! models.! “The! period! 1683O1700...(was)! of! the! utmost!
importance…tariffs! were! raised! again! and! again,! and! industrial!
regulations!were!extended!in!scope!and!made!more!meticulous,!
while!the'vigorous'attempt'to'maintain'the'industrial'status'quo'
by'regulation'amounted'in'some'degree'to'a'new'departure”22!(my!
italics).! Indeed,! throughout! the! period,! the! state! maintained! a!
“sturdy!adherence!to!the!idea!that!French!manufactures!should!
be!protected!by!high!import!duties.”!Cole!lists!71!distinct!decrees!
1683O1701! imposing! new! tariffs.! Most! early! modern! states!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
22!Cole!“French!Mercantilism!1683O1700”!

!
September!2010! 15!
applied! tariffs.! But! there! was! a! particular! quality! to! French!
regulation.! The! Calico! legislation! of! the! 1680’s! and! 90s’! “was!
merely! one! of! a! number! of! instances! in! which! the! French!
government!tried!to!restrict!or!arrest!the!forces!of!technological,!
industrial!or!commercial!change.”23!So!in!a!declaration!of!1694!it!
was! forbidden! that! buttons! be! made! of! wool! instead! of! silk;!
beaver!hats!were!restricted!to!protect!French!milliners;!stocking!
looms! for! woolen! stockings! were! attacked! 1680.! All! these!
measures! and! others! shared! one! defining! characteristic.! They!
were!largely!socioOeconomic!rather!than!fiscal:!to!prevent!unrest!
driven!by!innovation!upsetting!the!established!order,!rather!than!
as! a! means! to! securing! trade.! The! unintended! consequence!
however! was! the! inefficient! development! of! markets! and!
ultimately!domestic!economic!decline.!
!
It!now!beholds!us!to!ask!what!conditions!enabled!merchants!to!
innovate,!a!freedom!lacking!in!top!down!state!sponsored!trading!
bodies!(as!in!France)!or!state!run!trade!systems!as!in!Spain.!!Jaco!
Zuijderduijn! examination! of! the! late! medieval! Dutch! state! has!
drawn! attention! to! the! phenomenon! of! innovation.24! He!
examined! the! political! conditions! existing! in! the! Dutch! state!
during!its!rise!to!preOeminence.!Significantly!he!noted!“a!strong!
state! does! not! automatically! create! the! prerequisites! for!
economic!growth.!The!opposite!is!rather!true:!without!a!certain!
balance! of! power! the! state! is! likely! to! neglect! the! economic!
interests! of! its! subjects.! The! possibilities! for! economic! growth!
thus!depend!on!the!precise!composure!of!the!political!climate.!In!
Holland! two! phenomena! stand! out:! the! weak! position! of! the!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
23!Cole,!“French!Mercantilism!1683O1700”!
24!Jaco!Zuijderduijn,!“Capital!market!and!interest!rate!in!medieval!Holland”!Global!Economic!
History!Network!Seminar!“The!Rise,!Organization!and!Institutional!Framework!of!Factor!
Markets”!Utrecht,!June!2005.!

!
September!2010! 16!
nobility!and!clergy!and!the!strong!position!of!cities!–!a!position!
that! never! became! a! hegemony! though!! The! result! was! state!
formation! in! consultation! with! the! Holland! citizens.”! And! this!
consultation! lies! at! the! heart! of! creating! an! environment! for!
innovation!to!foster.!!
!
This! is! a! crucial! distinction! from! any! grand! theme! of! social!
determinism.! For! as! Stein! warns25! “it! is! a! gross!
oversimplification! to! blame! the! absence! of! the! enterprising!
bourgeoisies!found!in!northwest!Europe!in!the!late!seventeenth!
and! early! eighteenth! century! solely! on! the! antiObusiness! value!
system! of! a! society! dominated! by! a! landed! aristocracy! of!
seigniorial! privilege.”! But! it! is! maybe! not! so! gross! to! draw!
attention! to! the! importance! of! a! political! organization! in! the!
effective!development!&!maintenance!of!trading!power.!
!
In!this!model,!trade!success!doesn’t!grow!out!of!urbanization!or!
protoOindustrialisation;! rather! successful! urbanization! is! itself!
the! product! of! a! certain! type! of! benign! political! organization! –!
often! accidental! or! unwitting,! but! benign! nonetheless,! which!
itself!is!the!primary!cause!of!trade!growth.!Gauci’s!work!on!the!
merchant!and!parliament!in!England!shows!the!growing!role!of!
the! mercantile! interest! not! just! in! promoting! policy! through!
increased!presentation!of!petition!and!appeals,!but!in!the!act!of!
making! law;! by! the! mid! seventeenth! century! 7%! of!
parliamentarians! could! be! classed! as! merchants! by! origin26.! If!
much! of! Britain’s! success! was! a! function! of! mercantileOstate!
organization!however,!much!of!it!was!accidental.!Whilst!The!East!
India! Company! cannot! be! confused! with! the! English! state,!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
25!Stein!&!Stein,!“Silver,!Trade!&!war:!Spain!&!America!the!Making!of!Early!Modern!Europe”!
Baltimore,!2000,!pg!266!
26!Gauci,!pg!199,!table!5.1!

!
September!2010! 17!
nonetheless,! the! reaction! of! the! company! is! illustrative! of! the!
phenomenon.! For! example! in! response! to! escalating! new!
building!costs,!as!mentioned!above!the!company!evolved!a!policy!
of!renting!ships!rather!than!building!their!own.!!This!accident!of!
balance!sheet!stimulated!private!contractors!to!create!new!and!
more! efficient! designs,! which! went! on! to! trump! the! state!
sponsored!vessels!designed!under!government!contact!at!French!
and! Spanish! yards27.! Superiority! in! merchant! marine! was! one!
factor! contributing! to! British! penetration! of! the! Spanish! silver!
market!by!the!mid!seventeenth!century.!Securing!such!lucrative!
shipments! became! easier! when! English! freight! rates! were! “six!
times! lower! than! the! Spanish! could! provide”! from! Seville! to!
Caribbean,!a!function!largely!of!better!design.28!!
!
6. Subcontracting:! the! road! to! trading! failure! –! Spain,!
Portugal!
To! ensure! commercial! hegemony,! the! political! organisation! of!
the!state!therefore!needed!to!encourage!the!innovation!required!
to!maintain!its!dominance!as!trade!evolves.!The!interests!of!state!
and! merchant! needed! to! be! aligned.! Critically,! encouraging!
innovation! by! delegating! is! distinct! from! subcontracting! or!
delegating!with!an!abnegation!of!authority.!!Both!innovation!and!
subcontracting!are!types!of!economic!outsourcing!or!delegation,!
but!the!distinction!lies!in!the!effect!of!the!act!of!outsourcing.!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
27! Rowan!Hackman,!“Ships!of!The!East!India!Company”!2001,!page!31!“At!first!the![East!India]!
Company!bought!its!own!building!yard!at!Deptford,!but!by!1627!this!was!sold,!it!being!realised!
that!it!would!be!better!financially!to!have!ships!built!in!private!yards!for!private!owners,!subject!
to!the!company’s!specifications.!Although!the!Company!owned!a!number!of!vessels,!these!were!
mainly!smaller!ships!used!for!dispatch!purposes!around!the!coasts!of!India!or!to!China!or!Britain.!
A!fewer!larger!ships!were!actually!warships!used!to!protect!the!Company’s!property!and!vessels!
against! pirates,! both! Eastern! and! European,! which! swarmed! in! the! Indian! Ocean! in! the!
seventeenth!and!first!half!of!the!eighteenth!centuries.!Apart!from!these,!the!vast!majority!of!East!
Indiamen!were!privately!owned,!but!built!expressly!to!the!Company’s!specifications.”!
28!Taylor,!“Trade!Neutrality”!

!
September!2010! 18!
Subcontracting! was! superficially! attractive! in! that! it! offered! an!
immediate! return! for! the! appropriated! right! i.e.! revenue,! but!
because! of! the! legist! nature! of! the! exchange! it! was! far! more!
insidious;! for! at! its! heart! subcontracting! can! be! defined! as! the!
inefficient! allocation! of! the! states! resources! to! the! individual;!
innovation! as! the! efficient! allocation! to! the! individual! in! the!
states! interest.! If! the! case! studies! for! innovation! are! the!
successful! states! of! England! and! the! Dutch! Republic,!
subcontracting!is!at!the!heart!of!the!great!trading!failures!in!the!
seventeenth!century.!In!its!rawest!form,!this!seems!to!have!been!
the!fate!of!the!Spanish!empire!from!the!late!sixteenth!century.!!
!
In!contrast!to!the!Dutch!world!trade!system,!Spain!put!in!place!a!
“transatlantic!trading!system”.!But!before!examining!the!Spanish!
system!an!important!qualification!is!required!to!avoid!the!charge!
of!reductionism.!Subcontracting!is!not!unilateral!in!the!Spanish!
or!in!any!system.!Indeed,!“mining!and!commercial!activity!in!the!
American! colonies! remained! as! in! the! peninsula! the! sphere! of!
private!initiative”29!increasing!mining!technology!and!efficiency!
impressively,!a!clear!example!of!efficient!innovation.!Yet!at!the!
same! time! as! such! independent! action! was! underway! in! the!
colonies,!in!Madrid!officers!of!the!mints!were!able!to!purchase!
their!positions,!“a!practice!that!could!lead!to!gross!malfeasance”,!
which! Stein! argues! lay! at! the! heart! of! the! Spanish! model.! This!
corruption! at! the! top! of! the! commercial! system! ensured! that!
resources! would! not! be! allocated! efficiently! and! undid! the!
benefits! accrued! from! provincial! &! technical! innovation.! In! its!
starkest! form,! such! subcontracting! of! office! meant! assets! were!
misappropriated!from!the!state,!either!internally!or!externally!in!
the!form!of!piracy.!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
29!Stein!&!Stein,!pg!22!

!
September!2010! 19!
!
This! is! apparent! from! comparing! American! silver! production!
with! Spanish! tax! receipts.! From! around! 1620! production! and!
receipts!diverge.!From!an!average!mean!loss!of!around!9%!in!the!
previous!50!years,!losses!rise!to!account!for!a!staggering!80%!of!
production!being!misdirected!by!1655.!
'
The' price' of' subcontracting:' Spanish' tax' receipts' and' American'
silver'production''
By! examining! the! percentage! trend! rather! than! the! absolute!
numbers!in!the!loss!one!does!not!have!to!enter!into!the!debate!
over!the!proportion!of!silver!usefully!redirected!(e.g.!retained!in!
the! colonies! for! payments)! as! opposed! to! misused.! The!
percentage! figures! show! unequivocally! that! the! system! was!
breaking! down! progressively! from! the! early! 1600s.! The!
innovation! of! individuals! appears! to! be! working! against! the!
political!organization,!rather!than!for!it.!State!and!trader!interest!
Figure'3.'Source:'Stein'&'Stein'

!
September!2010! 20!
(common!or!individual)!were!no!longer!aligned;!in!fact!they!were!
diametrically!and!destructively!opposed.!
!
Most! importantly,! this! helps! us! refine! our! definition! of!
innovation.! Clearly! there! was! significant! individual! and! even!
systematic!innovation!underway!in!the!Spanish!silver!trades!by!
the!mid!seventeenth!century.!But!it!was!not!assisting!the!state!in!
its! primary! trading! function.! Profitable! participation! in! foreign!
trade! and! economic! growth! depends! on! a! nation’s! ability! to!
allocate!resources!so!they!are!always!available!where!growth!is!
most!intensive.30!In!effect,!surpluses!should!move!as!efficiently!
as! possible! to! areas! of! deficit,! a! process! assisted! under! our!
definition!by!innovation.!The!most!effective!states!will!therefore!
be!those!able!to!encourage!the!most!efficient!mechanism!for!this!
allocation.!In!the!case!of!Spain,!the!state!was!singularly!unable!to!
allocate! the! American! resources! efficiently! to! developing! the!
economy,!or!indeed!for!much!of!the!period!was!unable!to!allocate!
the! stolen! resources! at! all,! the! ultimate! failure! of! a! states!
economic!policy.!
!
Contrast! this! failure! with! the! Dutch! and! English! states.! All!
trading! nations! need! a! natural! advantage! like! the! Venetians! in!
the!Med!and!the!Portuguese!with!pepper.!The!Dutch!had!access!
to!the!grains!and!timber!from!the!Baltic.!But!this!access!was!not!
the!sufficient!cause!of!their!success;!indeed!for!decades!prior!to!
1560!the!Hanseatic!League!cities!in!both!perception!and!reality!
was! the! champion! of! the! trade.! It! was! only! when! the! Dutch!
harnessed!their!natural!advantage!of!location!with!advantages!of!
political!organization!(the!creation!of!an!educated!shipbuilding!
community!who!innovated!new!designs,!extensive!investment!in!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
30!Rothermund!pg!126!

!
September!2010! 21!
shipbuilding! encouraged! by! the! developing! system! of!
shareholding,! itself! a! product! of! the! Dutch! state’s! need! to! find!
unconventional! sources! of! funding),! driven! in! part! by! need! to!
master! the! elements! and! the! disadvantages! their! small! state!
faced,!that!the!Dutch!were!able!to!master!the!trade.!!
!
We!need!to!identify!more!exactly!how!the!innovation!required!in!
the!early!modern!state!to!support!trading!success!evolved.!From!
this!we!can!draw!some!general!conclusions!as!to!the!nature!of!
political!organization!required!to!promote!trading!success.!!
!
7. The! mechanics! of! innovation;! Dutch! Republic! &! the!
“mother!trade”!
Historians! have! talked! of! three! revolutions! underpinning! the!
early! modern! era.! First! the! Commercial! revolution! of! the! late!
seventeenth!century,!that!is!Dutch!use!of!capital!to!finance!trade.!
Second,! a! financial! revolution:! British! link! private! and! public!
finance!to!pay!for!wars!in!Europe!and!expand!in!Asia.!Finally,!the!
late!eighteenth!century!industrial!revolution.!
!
If!we!focus!on!the!commercial!revolution!so!significant!to!Dutch!
hegemony! Israel! identified! four! major! areas! of! innovation.!
Firstly,!concentrating!domestically!on!the!most!profitable!lines!of!
trade! and! production,! while! buying! grains! and! raw! materials!
abroad.! Secondly,! intensification! of! agricultural! production! at!
home.!Thirdly,!the!mechanisation!of!shipbuilding;!and!finally,!the!
development! of! large! scale! credit! provision! for! trading.! The!
result! of! these! innovations,! he! argues! was! that! “in! the! closing!
decades!of!the!seventeenth!century,!the!growing!reliance!of!the!
Dutch! entrepot! on! the! rich! trades,! and! therefore! on! export!

!
September!2010! 22!
industries,! was! turning! Holland! into! the! technical! research!
laboratory!of!the!western!world.”31.!!
!
What! mechanism! drove! this! process! of! innovation?! Braudel,! in!
his!seminal!“Civilisation!materielle”,!postulated!a!long!sequence!
of! western! world! economies! each! revolving! around! a! single!
predominant!centre,!from!Venice!in!the!1400!through!Antwerp!
and!Genoa!to!Amsterdam!by!1600,!to!be!surpassed!by!London!by!
1800.!He!argued!the!mechanism!for!control!lay!with!dominance!
of!bulk!trades.!Dutch!domination!of!the!bulk!trades!(as!opposed!
to!trade!in!rich!goods)!from!the!end!of!the!sixteenth!century,!at!a!
time!of!rising!famine!and!economic!stagnation!in!most!of!Europe,!
accounts! for! Dutch! success.! As! Dutch! bulk! freight! contracted!
after!1650,!then!it!follows!that!point!marks!the!apogee!of!Dutch!
success.!Yet!Israel!argues!this!emphasis!on!success!in!the!bulk!
trades!is!misplaced!and!inaccurate.!He!argues!Lubeck!dominates!
much! of! Baltic! trade! as! late! as! 1585,! long! after! Dutch! had!
achieved!trading!hegemony.!!
!
According! to! Israel,! Braudel! “misses! the! crucial! shift! both! in!
scope! and! degree! of! concentration! of! economic! power”! in! the!
early!modern!global!economy.!Given!the!limited!scope!of!political!
entities!before!the!nineteenth!century,!markets!were!subject!to!a!
host!of!influences!and!changing!foci!at!any!one!time.!Moreover!
the!teleology!of!empire!was!characterized!by!action!followed!by!
prolonged!periods!of!stasis!rather!than!a!continuous!dialectic.!As!
such,! the! transfer! of! power! articulated! in! Braudel’s! view! is! a!
misrepresentation.! Rather! than! a! transfer,! there! are! sudden!
surges!of!influence.!Israel!believes!the!reason!to!these!surges!lies!
in! success! in! the! rich! trades,! rather! than! the! bulks.! This! is! a!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
31!Israel,!pg!357!

!
September!2010! 23!
significant!departure,!and!of!interest!to!students!of!the!modern!
global!economy!with!bulk!trade!dominated!by!China!while!rich!
trades!remain!the!preserve!of!the!west!and!specifically!the!US.!
!
However,! it! may! be! premature! to! discount! the! relationship!
between! economic! power! and! control! of! bulk! trades32.! Early!
modern! bulk! trades! were! dominated! by! salt,! grain! and! timber.!
Grain! was! crucial! to! survival;! meat! and! fish! could! only! be!
preserved!with!salt.!In!an!age!of!timber!construction,!lumber!was!
the!primary!raw!material!of!industry;!the!great!northern!forests!
supplied!the!bulk!of!Europe’s!timber!while!the!northern!states!
were! the! breadbasket! of! Europe;! therefore! the! trade! route! to!
ship!grain!&!timber!from!the!Baltic,!and!salt!on!the!way!back,!was!
akin!to!the!modern!trade!flow!West–East!of!iron!ore!&!coal!to!
supply!the!Asian!steel!mills!and!power!plants!and!the!grain!to!
feed! its! people,! the! unglamorous! but! vital! work! horse! of! the!
global!economy!in!the!twenty!first!century.!!
!
8. Bulk! trade! and! the! factor! markets:! shipping! as! the!
preSindustrial!cost!determinant!
Was!trade!in!bulk!commodities!with!the!Baltic,!and!above!all!the!
“mother! trade”,! grain,! fundamental! to! Dutch! prosperity,!
surpassing! the! more! exotic! rich! trades! such! as! the! spice! trade!
with!the!East!Indies?!The!Danish!shipping!tolls!collected!from!the!
late!fifteenth!century!provide!a!thorough!and!revealing!database!
of! shipping! movements! by! nationality33.! In! the! age! before! the!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
32!see!Van!Zandern!“de!“nieuwe!visie”!van!Israel”!BMGN!106,!1991!is!among!other!critiques!of!
Israel’s!thesis!prompting!Israel’s!1997!counter!!“The!Dutch!Bulk!Carrying!Traffic”!
33!Guide!&!Concordance!to!The!Sound!Toll!Registers,!1497O1857!on!microfilm,!Moran!
Micropublications,!Amsterdam,!The!Netherlands,!2006.!!“!The!Sound!(Øresund!in!Danish)!is!the!
long!narrow!body!of!water!separating!Denmark!from!Sweden!that!forms!the!passage!from!the!
North!Sea!to!the!Baltic!Sea.!For!centuries!it!has!been!one!of!the!busiest!waterways!in!the!world.!!
!
Tolls!were!exacted!there!going!back!to!approximately!1429.!From!1497!until!it!was!abolished!in!

!
September!2010! 24!
active!trading!and!chartering!of!vessels,!vessels!were!flagged!to!
their!own!state;! flag!is!therefore!a!good!indicator!of!control!of!
trade!in!a!way!it!never!can!in!the!modern!age!of!flag!states!and!
chartered!tonnage.!So!by!analyzing!flag!state!alone!in!the!Early!
Modern! period! it! is! possible! to! quantify! a! nation’s! trading!
success;!tonnage!lists!for!this!trade!are!a!uniquely!good!corollary!
for!commercial!control!of!a!trade.!
!
Moreover!the!Baltic!trades!were!primarily!bulk!trades.!The!start!
of!Dutch!influence!in!the!region!far!precedes!any!involvement!in!
the! rich! trades.! It! began! with! that! most! basic! and! vital! bulk!
commodity,! salt.! By! the! mid! fifteenth! century! the! Hanseatic!
League!began!to!lose!its!monopoly!of!the!salt!trade!in!the!Baltic!
as!Dutch!full!rigged!boats!undercut!rates!by!reducing!the!ballast!
leg;! they! picked! up! cheaper! salt! from! Iberia! and! wine! from!
France.! Technical! and! design! supremacy! was! key! to! Dutch!
success.! The! herring! buss! and,! above! all,! at! the! end! of! the!
sixteenth! century! the! fluyt,! were! superior! to! the! more! general!
Hansa!and!English!boats.!!
!
This!technical!edge!was!coupled!to!new!types!of!financing!often!
born!of!necessity.!The!absence!of!big!merchants!in!the!early!days!
of!the!Dutch!republic!encouraged!multi!part!ownership!of!boats,!
a! phenomenon! that! became! apparent! by! the! middle! of! the!
sixteenth! century! and! spurred! a! rapid! expansion! in! Dutch!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
1857!the!details!of!the!Sound!Toll!levied!by!the!Kingdom!of!Denmark,!which!actually!consisted!of!
several!different!types!of!charges,!were!recorded!in!registers!by!Danish!customs!officials!at!the!
customs!house!near!the!fortress!of!Kronborg!that!dominated!the!strait!at!Elsinore.!Most!of!these!
registers!are!still!extant!and!form!a!remarkable!series!running!to!more!than!700!volumes!
occupying!58!meters!on!the!shelves!of!Denmark's!National!Archives!in!Copenhagen.!A!series!of!
such!length!and!detail!is!found!nowhere!else!in!the!world!and!is!of!incomparable!importance!for!
the!history!of!trade!and!shipping!and!more!generally!for!the!economic!history!of!western,!
Northern!and!Eastern!Europe.”!Publishers!preface.!
!

!
September!2010! 25!
merchant!marine.!Above!all,!the!accident!of!hosting!a!number!of!
small!ports!in!the!trade,!rather!than!a!single!dominating!centre,!
ensured!collectivism!would!dominate!the!Dutch!trading!mindset!
in!contrast!to!the!Hanseatic!League.!To!all!of!this,!the!1572!Dutch!
revolt,! culminating! in! the! Spanish! withdrawal! 1590,! was! the!
spark!that!lit!this!torch!paper!to!Dutch!trading!success.!!
!
Sound'toll'registers'5'year'totals;'1497O1540'implied34'
Critically,!Israel!argues!that!it!was!the!provinces’!control!of!rich!
trades!after!this!point!was!the!lever!that!opened!the!Baltic!bulk!
trades!to!the!Dutch.!He!points!out!much!of!the!previous!shipping!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
34!Data!is!adapted!from!work!by!Ole!Degn!"introduction!to!the!Sound!Toll!registers!1497O1857.”!
1495O1570!data!is!left!blank!where!no!continuous!5!year!data!is!available;!it!is!estimated!on!mean!
of!preceding!and!following!periods!for!1530!and!1550.!!Tielhof!has!done!similar!work!(see!Mother!
Trade!pg!193!but!focused!on!grain!shipments!rather!than!drawing!broader!conclusions.!
!"
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@>4;A"<3BC8-"01.D0"D;00.<E"41->3E1"2;<.01"6>3<9"
@>4;A"=3BC8-"
D;00;E80"
Figure'4.'Source:'adapted'with'interpolation'of'missing'data'from'Ole'Degn,'“Introduction'to'the'
Sound'Toll'registers'1497O1857,'plus'from'Bang'and'Korst'“Tabeller”'1930'

!
September!2010! 26!
had!been!characterized!as!low!value!or!ballasters.!By!implication!
Dutch!trading!hegemony!was!a!function!primarily!of!control!of!
the!rich!trades!rather!than!the!bulks.!Indeed,!the!absolute!data!
for! the! Sound! toll! presents! an! unconvincing! case! for! the!
significance! of! control! of! bulk! freight! (see! figure! 4).! Dutch!
shipments!peak!with!a!double!top!in!1585!and!again!1615!but!
remain!relatively!static!at!lower!levels!from!1630O1780,!the!key!
period! of! the! loss! of! Dutch! trading! hegemony.! By! implication!
therefore!we!can!see!little!causal!link!between!control!of!the!bulk!
freight!market!and!trading!hegemony.!!
!
Looking! again! at! the! tonnage! lists! from! Oresund! however,! but!
this!time!examining!nationality!of!vessels!as!a!percentage!of!total!
trade!rather!than!as!absolute!numbers,!reveals!a!subtly!different!
picture!(figure!5).!Now!the!extended!time!series!of!market!share!
in!shipments,!largely!by!definition!bulk!trades!rather!than!rich!
trades,!tracks!the!rise!and!fall!of!Dutch!hegemony!with!precision.!
Dutch!share!in!the!trade!rises!1530O1560!from!40%!to!over!70%!
before! embarking! on! a! secular! decline! from! 1620! marked! by!
collapse!1660O1705,!a!brief!recovery!1705O!1710!and!then!steady!
decline!to!oblivion!1720O1795.!Moreover,!it!is!worth!noting!the!
impressive! rally! in! market! share! 1530O60! precedes! by! some!
years!Dutch!success!in!the!revolt!against!Spain!and!control!of!the!
rich!trades,!again!calling!into!question!the!causal!nature!of!the!
rich!trades!in!trading!success.!
!
Indeed,!looked!at!overall,!the!course!of!the!bulk!freight!market!
correlates!so!neatly!to!the!political!rise!and!fall!of!the!Republic!
that!emphasis!on!the!significance!of!the!rich!trades!as!opposed!to!
bulk!trades!to!mercantile!success!may!need!to!be!reOexamined.!
Looking!at!the!data!in!market!share!terms,!dominance!of!the!bulk!
markets!suddenly!seems!central!to!a!nation’s!trading!success.!

!
September!2010! 27!
Sound'toll'registers'5'year'totals;'1497O1540'implied35'
'
Figure'5:!Source:'adapted'with'interpolation'of'missing'data'from'Ole'Degn,'“Introduction'to'the'
Sound'Toll'registers'1497O1857,'plus'from'Bang'and'Korst'“Tabeller”'1930'
Indeed,!the!data!suggests!dominance!of!the!bulk!markets!allowed!
the! Dutch! to! successfully! develop! the! rich! trades! that! would!
define! the! Golden! Age.! It! is! interesting! to! note! that! the! Dutch!
merchant!saw!his!world!in!this!light.!A!map!of!the!world!drawn!
1617! by! Cornelius! Claesz! and! Janssonius! has,! perhaps!
fortuitously,!the!Oresund!as!the!epicenter!of!the!map;!the!staging!
post!for!the!bulk!trades!as!a!New!Jerusalem.36!
!
If!we!look!in!closer!details!at!the!period!1660O1760!the!data!is!
equally!revealing.!In!absolute!terms,!beyond!showing!the!growth!
in!total!trade!and!the!decline!of!Dutch!shipping!after!1770,!the!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
35!Data!is!adapted!from!work!by!Ole!Degn!"introduction!to!the!Sound!Toll!registers!1497O1857.”!
1495O1570!data!is!left!blank!where!no!continuous!5!year!data!is!available;!it!is!estimated!on!mean!
of!preceding!and!following!periods!for!1530!and!1550.!!Tielhof!has!done!similar!work!(see!Mother!
Trade!pg!193!but!focused!on!grain!shipments!rather!than!drawing!broader!conclusions.!
36!Cornelius!Claesz!and!Janssonius,!British!Library!exhibition!2010!
!"#
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-./012# 34562# 789:/12;#3<=/12;#>?.19# @529.1#

!
September!2010! 28!
data! reveals! little! of! surprise! (figure! 5).! Total! trade! volumes!
accelerate! from! the! 1730s,! inline! with! a! healthier! European!
economy,!while!Dutch!share!in!the!trade!declines!sharply!from!
the! 1770s,! overtaken! by! British! and! Scandinavian! tonnage.! In!
itself!however!the!data!reveals!little!about!the!trajectory!or!the!
causes!of!Dutch!trading!success!and!failure.!
!
Number'of'ships'passing'west'through'the'sound'by'nation.'
Yet! in! percentage! terms! the! picture! is! strikingly! different! (see!
figure!6).!The!data!uncannily!tracks!the!ebb!and!flow!of!Dutch!
commercial!success!and!loosely!characterized!as!arguing!Dutch!
supremacy! peaks! 1660s,! commences! a! dramatic! decline! from!
1740!and!is!surpassed!by!1760!(figure!7).!!
!
Figure'6.!Source:'adapted'from'Bang'and'Korst'“Tabeller”'1930'
!

!
September!2010! 29!
Ships' passing' West' through' the' sound' by' nation;' percentage' of'
total'movements.'
Using!the!data!in!percentage! terms!we! clearly!see!two!distinct!
phases! of! decline.! Firstly,! from! 1660O1690,! loosely!
corresponding! with! the! AngloODutch! wars! and! rising! tension!
with! France,! Dutch! share! falls! from! 60O35%.! The! next! phase!
commences! 1740! which! sees! the! terminal! decline! in! Dutch!
market!share.!It!is!a!clear!quantification!of!the!magnitude!of!the!
defeat!inflicted!on!Dutch!hegemony!by!the!treaty!of!Munster!in!
1748.!!
!
To! highlight! the! value! of! this! approach! to! the! data,! it! is! worth!
noting! that! in! absolute! terms,! Dutch! shipment! levels! were!
approaching!their!highs!in!1770.!The!data!is!deceptive!however,!
for! in! the! decade! 1760O1770! when! tonnage! rose! from! 885! to!
!"#
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Figure'7.!Source:'adapted'from'Bang'and'Korst'“Tabeller”'1930'
!

!
September!2010! 30!
1339! transits,! market! share! dropped! from! 34%! to! 23%.! It!
appears!that!only!by!analyzing!the!data!in!terms!of!market!share!
can!the!true!story!of!Dutch!trading!decline!be!told.!
!
Correlation!is!not!causation;!but!the!closer!the!correlation!over!
an!extended!time!series,!the!more!improved!the!chances!of!the!
significance!of!the!observation.!This!new!analysis,!emphasizing!
market!share!over!absolute!numbers,!reasserts!the!importance!
of!control!of!the!bulk!trades!in!Early!Modern!trading!success.!!
!
9. The! Bulk! trades! as! an! indicator! of! 17th! century!
commercial!power!
Why! were! the! bulk! freight! markets! so! significant! in! the!
seventeenth! century?! The! nation! that! commands! the! cheapest!
cost! of! goods! is! the! one! that! best! controls! the! factor! markets;!
controlling! the! factor! markets! (achieving! lowest! costs)! has!
always!meant!securing!cheapest!energy!cost.!!
!
In!the!preOindustrial!age!of!the!seventeenth!century,!the!major!
energy! input! was! kinetic;! the! movement! of! goods.! As! such,!
dominance! of! the! factor! markets! meant! controlling! shipping! &!
delivery! costs,! especially! for! bulk! goods.! ! It! is! no! accident!
therefore!that!the!period!of!strongest!economic!growth,!from!the!
late! sixteenth! century! to! middle! part! of! the! next! century,! saw!
European! freight! rates! (costs)! treble.! Securing! relatively! cheap!
freight!rates!was!therefore!the!“mechanism!by!which!industrial!
efficiency! is! transposed! into! commercial! efficiency”37! and! by!
which! the! state! therefore! achieved! commercial! hegemony.! In!
effect!between!about!1560O1660!bulk!freight!was!the!key!factor!
market!for!trading!competitors.!In!this!environment,!optimizing!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
37!I.!Wallerstein,!“The!Modern!World!System:!Mercantilism!&!Consolidation!1600O1700”!pg!55.!

!
September!2010! 31!
freight! rates! 1560O1660! would! deliver! a! real! commercial!
advantage!(see!figure!8).!!
!
Achieving!cheap!freight!rates!required!either!introducing!better!
technology! or! securing! the! quickest! trade! routes! through!
commerce! or! conflict.! So,! new! technology,! from! the! fourteenth!
century!Herring!buss!to!the!late!sixteenth!century!Fluits,!allowed!
the!Dutch!to!continue!to!offer!competitive!freight38.!It!was!about!
as!expensive!to!charter!a!ship!for!a!single!voyage!from!Gdansk!or!
from!Bordeaux!to!Holland!as!to!charter!a!ship!for!a!return!voyage!
to!these!destinations!starting!in!Holland,!although!the!latter!trip!
would!take!twice!the!time.39!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
38!see!Luiten!van!Zanden!and!Milja!van!Tielhof,!‘Roots!of!Growth!and!Productivity!Change!in!Dutch!
Shipping!Industry,!1500O1800’,!in:!Explorations!in!Economic!History!2009.!See!also!Tielhof,!“the!
mother!trade”!pg!188O192!for!further!detail!on!innovations!in!shipbuilding!and!design.!
39!a!series!for!return!voyages!from!the!Dutch!Republic!to!Gdansk!and!nearby!ports!based!on!482!
individual!prices!(1591O1758)!(Van!Tielhof!2002:!198,!203,!340O345)!Tielhof,!Milja!van!(2002),!
The!‘mother!of!all!trades’.!The!Baltic!grain!trade!in!Amsterdam!from!the!late!16th!to!the!early!
19th!century.!Leiden/Boston/Köln:!Brill.!Tielhof’s!exhaustive!study!of!the!trade!is!an!invaluable!
guide!and!source!of!data.!
Figure 8.!source: adapted from Milja van Tielhof and Jan Luiten van Zanden
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!
September!2010! 32!
However,! as! overall! economic! activity! slowed! in! the! late!
seventeenth! century,! freight! rates! flat! lined! for! the! next! 100!
years,! only! starting! to! rise! again! with! economic! recovery! from!
the! 1780s.! The! commercial! advantage! delivered! by! cheaper!
freight!would!be!undermined!in!this!environment.!As!bulk!freight!
ceased!to!be!the!dominant!factor!market,!control!of!it!ceased!to!
ensure!commercial!hegemony;!the!resultant!decline!fed!back!in!a!
vicious!circle!to!undermine!dominance!of!the!bulk!market.!
!
Moreover! this! argument! can! be! strengthened! by! looking! at!
freight! on! a! relative! basis,! or! relative! to! other! industrial!
commodity!costs.!Adapting!the!data!provided!by!Tielhof!and!Van!
Zanden!for!timber!prices!and!freight!costs,!the!parabolic!rise!and!
fall! in! the! significance! of! the! freight! markets! can! be! illustrated!
(figure!9).!Freight!costs!were!rising!inexorably!as!a!percentage!of!
costs! until! the! mid! seventeenth! century,! from! a! low! of! 30! to! a!
high!of!80%!on!an!index!basis!before!drifting!down!to!50%!by!
the!1740s!and!then!declining!sharply.!In!short,!in!absolute!and!
Figure'9.'Source:'adapted'from'Tielhof'and'Van'Zanden'

!
September!2010! 33!
relative! terms,! freight! rates! were! declining! in! value! and!
significance!terms!from!the!late!seventeenth!century.!
!
In! this! context! it! is! worth! noting! as! Europe! wide! freight! rates!
stagnate! into! the! eighteenth! century,! so! also! Dutch! industrial!
production!(using!cloth!making!or!laken!production!at!Leiden!as!
a!corollary)!started!to!fall.!The!question!is!whether!rates!stagnate!
as! a! result! of! Dutch! production! decline! or,! more! likely! as! rate!
stagnation!was!a!pan!European!phenomenon,!Dutch!production!
decline! partly! followed! the! stagnant! freight! market,! which!
undermined!the!natural!Dutch!edge!in!bulk!freight!rates.!
!!!
To! conclude;! control! of! the! bulk! markets! meant! control! of!
shipping! costs;! shipping! in! the! seventeenth! century! was! the!
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Figure'10.''Source:'adapted'from'Tielhof'and'Van'Zanden''

!
September!2010! 34!
major!factor!determining!production!cost!differential;!control!of!
shipping!therefore!meant!control!of!the!factor!markets.!Control!
of!the!factor!markets,!rather!than!bulks,!rich!goods!or!production!
per!se,!lay!at!the!heart!of!trading!hegemony.!When!the!key!factor!
market!in!which!they!had!an!edge!shifted!away!from!freight!to!
say! labour! costs,! the! traditional! masters! of! the! original! factor!
market!lost!their!trading!advantage.!
!
10. Sterile! economic! enclaves,! the! exhaustion! of!
innovation!&!the!failure!of!Dutch!state!
So! whilst! Dutch! success! helps! build! a! view! on! the! causes! of!
trading! success,! the! demise! of! the! Dutch! trading! entrepot! is!
perhaps! as! instructive! as! to! the! characteristics! of! success! in! a!
trading! nation! in! the! seventeenth! century! as! was! the! rise! to!
hegemony.!!
!
Israel! posed! the! key! question! the! republic! faced,! namely! did! it!
“possess! enough! of! a! technological! edge! to! survive! in! a! hostile!
world,! infused! with! an! increasingly! protectionist! attitude?”! He!
answered!the!Dutch!were!able!to!face!the!French!threat!alone!by!
developing!an!industrial!mercantilism!of!their!own!in!thought!of!
van!Beuningen!et!al.!“But!for!all!that!the!Dutch!entrepot!was!still!
in!essence!a!world!reservoir!of!commodities!that!could!flourish!
for!only!so!long!as!its!products!enjoyed!access!to!the!markets!of!
the! world.! (It)! was! living! on! borrowed! time.”! This! puts! the!
significance! of! bulk! freight! as! the! key! factor! market! for! the!
seventeenth!century!Dutch!Republic!into!context.!Not!only!were!
freight! costs! overall! rising! in! this! period! adding! to! cost! of!
production!Europe!wide!and!favouring!those!who!could!innovate!
in! this! market,! but! for! an! entrepot! market! (as! opposed! to! a!
domestic!economy)!optimising!transport!costs!has!added!weight.!
When!either!it!ceased!to!innovate!in!freight!or!freight!ceased!to!

!
September!2010! 35!
be!the!major!factor!market!(i.e.!in!periods!of!stagnant!economic!
activity!and!therefore!low!freights)!trading!hegemony!would!be!
threatened.!
!
The! loss! of! their! lead! in! innovation! was! therefore! primarily! a!
function!of!the!Achilles!heel!at!the!heart!of!the!Dutch!model,!the!
lack! of! a! meaningful! domestic! market! to! shelter! the! economy!
from! economic! storms.! Without! it,! there! would! not! be! enough!
energy!to!allow!development!of!an!Industrial!Revolution.!A!state!
needed!a!home!market!as!in!Britain!to!come!under!attack,!evolve!
and!overtake.!So!also,!absence!of!a!home!or!protected!market!is!
devastating! in! the! face! of! systematic! mercantilist! response,!
which! Israel! identifies! as! occurring! 1750O1770.40! The! Dutch!
were! by! no! means! alone! in! this! fate.! Rothermund41! coined! the!
phrase!“sterile!economic!enclaves”!to!describe!export!dependent!
entrepots.!The!classic!example!is!Surat!in!eighteenth!century;!the!
city!achieved!great!wealth!driven!by!exports!in!the!early!part!of!
the! period! but! then! collapsed! as! political! instability! set! in.!
Rothermund’s!explanation!for!the!fall!is!strikingly!familiar!to!our!
case:! “the! institutional! framework! for! a! stable! economic!
development! were! missing”.! In! addition! however,! change! in!
trade!patterns!left!Surat!economically!exposed!in!the!absence!of!
a! domestic! market.! Cole! argues42! the! French! government’s!
limitation! of! the! import! of! calico! prints! (toiles! peintes)! in! the!
1686! &! 1691! decrees! to! protect! the! old! established! French!
textile! industry,! undermined! both! the! East! India! company! and!
Surat!given!its!role!as!centre!for!export!of!calicos.!!
!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
40!Interesting!to!note!Linder’s!model!for!nations!that!don’t!have!developed!internal!market.!Their!
economy! splits! into! export! and! domestic.! Export! market! dominated! by! exogenous! factors! as!
dependent!on!foreign!demand;!domestic!production!eliminated!by!inefficiency.!
41!Rothermund,!“Asian!trade!and!European!Expansion!In!the!Age!of!Mercantilism”!1981!
42!Cole,!“French!Mercantilism!1683O1700”!

!
September!2010! 36!
In!this!light!contemporary!discussion!about!the!need!for!China!to!
develop! a! domestic! market! to! offset! its! export! market! is! of!
course!relevant.!There!is!of!course!one!striking!difference.!China!
poses! a! scale! and! potential! for! a! domestic! market! that! the!
seventeenth!century!Dutch,!hemmed!in!on!all!sides!and!with!a!
limited!population!or!the!tiny!cityOstate!of!Surat,!never!did.!Yet!
for! one! other! European! economy! that! failed! to! develop! a!
domestic! market,! and! yet! size! was! no! obstacle.! It! is! of! course!
Spain.!
!
It! is! interesting! to! note! that! Spain’s! failure! to! develop! a!
significant! domestic! economy! was! partly! a! function! of! the!
absence! of! the! conditions! we! have! already! identified! as! being!
necessary! for! trading! success.! In! particular,! an! accident! of!
topography! meant! Spain! could! never! master! freight! costs,! the!
key! factor! market! of! the! seventeenth! century.! This! was!
particularly!true!of!internal!domestic!costs;!in!the!words!of!one!
historian! “the! isolation! of! interior! markets! continued! into! the!
nineteenth! century! and! the! sharp! regional! differences! in! price!
levels!did!not!diminish!until!the!1880s.”43!!
!
Secondly,!Spanish!political!organisation!was!not!conducive!to!the!
innovation!seen!elsewhere.!This!can!be!illustrated!by!examining!
the!oldest!and!most!important!domestic!industry,!the!wool!trade.!
From! the! sixteenth! century! the! Spanish! crown! took! charge! of!
marketing!wool!exports,!to!the!exclusion!of!the!trade!body,!the!
Mesta.44! Klein’s! observation! on! the! effect! is! noteworthy! “The!
(royal)!committee!was!to!assign!the!proper!shares!of!the!profit!to!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
43!D.R.Ringrose,!“Madrid!and!the!Spanish!Economy!1560O1850”,!University!of!California!Press,!
1983!pg!5.!
44!J.Klein,!“The!Mesta,!A!Study!In!Spanish!Economic!History!1273O1836”,!Harvard!University!Press,!
1920,!pg!39!

!
September!2010! 37!
each! of! the! growers! and! merchants! contributing! wool! for! the!
transactions!of!the!Consulado.!These!claims!of!Mesta!members!…!
were!frequently!used,!during!the!financial!difficulties!of!the!first!
Hapsburgs,! as! securities! for! heavy! loans! to! the! crown! by! the!
Mesta.! It' is' clear,' then,' that' although' the' latter' had' no' share'
directly' in' the' development' of' improved' marketing' methods…in'
the'end,'the'Mesta'profited'heavily'in'the'large'sums'it'was'able'to'
raise'from'the'Medina'bankers'during'the'sixteenth'century'(my!
italics),! thanks! to! the! annual! liquidation! of! the! wool! export!
obligations! at! the! great! fair.”! Albeit! from! an! earlier! age,! such!
royal! domination! of! the! marketing! of! an! industrial! good! is! in!
marked! contrast! to! say! developments! in! England! where!
merchants!witnessed!the!declining!influence!of!the!crown!with!
“lobbyists!acknowledging!the!lower!house’s!supremacy!over!the!
crown!in!revenue!matters.”45!!
!
Interestingly,!the!Consulado!reforms!are!considered!amongst!the!
more! successful! in! the! history! of! Spain’s! wool! trade.! They! can!
certainly!be!compared!favourably!with!Philip!II!1559!levying!of!
export!duties.!!Klein!colorfully!elaborates!the!effect!of!this!piece!
of! intervention.! Duties! “were! administered! by! a! corps! of!
energetic!officials,!the!‘alcaldes!de!sacas’!or!export!judges,!who!
realized!keenly!that!their!income!would!be!commensurate!with!
their!zeal.!It!was!not!long!before!they!became!notorious!both!for!
their!wealth!and!for!their!ruthless!shortsightedness!in!taxing!the!
wool!trade!practically!out!of!existence.”46!In!both!cases,!despite!
the! wellOintentioned! motivation! for! the! intervention,! the! effect!
was! the! same;! the! inefficient! allocation! of! resources! fits! neatly!
into!our!definition!of!subcontracting,!a!negative!economic!act.!As!
Ringrose! suggests! in! his! more! general! critique! of! the! Spanish!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
45!Gauci,!pg!218!
46!Klein,!pg!46.!

!
September!2010! 38!
empire!“the!durability!of!central!bureaucracy!in!the!seventeenth!
century,!and!the!apparent!successes!of!the!Bourbon!monarchy!in!
rebuilding!and!unifying!Spain!in!the!eighteenth,!only!masked!the!
tensions!inherent!in!the!situation.”47!
!
11. Conclusion!
Our! brief! survey! of! trading! empire! in! the! seventeenth! century!
therefore! highlights! a! number! of! preconditions! behind!
commercial! success! in! the! period.! Firstly,! the! existence! of! a!
political! organisation! that! allowed! economic! innovation,! the!
optimization! of! the! allocation! of! tangible! and! intangible!
resources! available! to! the! state! from! surpluses! to! deficit.! In! so!
doing,!the!interests!of!state!and!merchant!should!in!general!be!
aligned.!
!
The!existence!of!such!innovation!allowed!the!second!condition:!
dominance! and! maintenance! of! hegemony! in! the! key! factor!
market,!which!was!the!bulk!freight!market!during!the!first!half!of!
the! seventeenth! century.! At! the! same! time! the! state! needed! to!
avoid!the!subcontracting!of!office!and!process!that!undermined!
the!alignment!of!interest!between!merchant!and!state.!Third!and!
finally,! the! state! needed! to! provide! a! selfOsustaining,! scaled!
domestic!market.!
!
How!useful!is!this!analysis!for!a!study!of!contemporary!political!
economy?!First!we!need!to!establish!a!connection!between!the!
periods.! It! is! unclear! at! the! start! of! the! twenty! first! century!
whether! we! are! embarking! on! a! new! long! century! of! resource!
constraint,! sub! optimal! growth! and! returns.! However,! such!
conditions!do!at!least!currently!exist.!There!should!therefore!be!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
47!D.R.Ringrose,!“Madrid!and!the!Spanish!Economy!1560O1850”,!University!of!California!Press,!
1983!pg!6.!

!
September!2010! 39!
some! value! in! attempting! to! understand! the! characteristics! of!
successful! and! failed! states! in! similar! environments.! As! the!
seventeenth!century!shared!these!characteristics!it!may!be!useful!
to!draw!from!the!lessons!of!that!age!and!apply!those!principles!to!
a!provisional!analysis!of!the!rising!economic!hegemonist!of!the!
twenty!first!century,!China.!
!
Turning!first!to!the!ability!of!political!organisation!to!encourage!
innovation,!we!have!already!suggested!that!the!innovative!nature!
of!an!act!can!only!be!judged!by!its!effect.!By!definition!therefore!
current! policy! cannot! be! declared! innovative! or! an! act! of!
subcontracting.! But! we! can! attempt! to! measure! the! innovative!
nature! of! a! state.! Quantifying! innovation! is! of! course! difficult.!
However!one!possible!starting!point!is!patent!applications.!There!
is!a!major!drawback!with!this!approach.!A!patent!award!does!not!
account! for! the! quality! of! the! patent,! i.e.! its! significance.!
Invention! is! not! innovation! under! our! terms.! Nonetheless,! the!
approach!can!shed!some!light!on!the!innovation!taking!place!in!a!
society,!if!only!in!indicating!the!willingness!of!individuals!to!be!
seen!to!take!ownership!of!new!ideas.!!
!
In!this!context,!examining!the!UN’s!WIPO!patent!database!sheds!
some!light!on!the!innovation!in!China!since!the!introduction!of!
patent! law! from! 1985.! Two! things! stand! out.! Firstly,! although!
innovation!is!increasing!in!China,!indeed!patent!application!from!
Chinese! citizens! surpassed! that! from! those! of! the! EU! in! 2004,!
application!remains!significantly!below!that!in!the!US!at!under!
two! thirds! the! number! of! applications! made! by! citizens! of! the!
world’s!largest!economy.!
!

!
September!2010! 40!
!
Figure'11.!source:'WIPO!
But!secondly,!it!is!interesting!to!note!that!the!vast!bulk!of!Chinese!
citizens! making! application! for! patent! do! so! in! the! PRC! rather!
than!overseas;!in!contrast!just!65%!of!US!citizens!making!patent!
applications!do!so!in!the!US,!the!balance!being!made!overseas.!
The! preponderance! of! domestic! applications! in! China! may!
suggest! more! a! catch! up! with! international! standards! than!
genuine! innovation,! which! will! by! definition! foster! overseas!
applications.!As!indicator!of!Chinese!innovation,!this!data!at!least!
is!challenging.!
!
0!
100,000!
200,000!
300,000!
400,000!
500,000!
application!for!patents!at!US!patent!ofxices!
application!for!patents!at!Chinese!patent!ofxices!
EU!patent!ofxice!

!
September!2010! 41!
!
Figure'12.!source:'WIPO!
So! what! about! the! second! precondition,! control! of! the! factor!
market?! If! bulk! markets! were! the! dominant! factor! of! the!
seventeenth! century,! so! in! the! postOindustrial! age! when!
technology! has! largely! arbitraged! away! the! advantages! of!
achieving!cheaper!freight!costs,!labour!costs!have!dominated.!But!
with!the!globalization!of!markets!leading!to!a!rapid!arbitraging!of!
labour!advantages!as!witnessed!by!rising!Chinese!concern!at!the!
cost! of! labour,! increasingly! the! dominant! defining! factor!
distinguishing!economies!is!power!and!fuel!costs.!!
!
China!faces!critical!disadvantages!in!the!energy!markets.!Firstly,!
an!absence!of!domestic!oil!reserves!requires!significant!overseas!
projection!to!maintain!its!newfound!offshore!supplies!currently!
secured!though!tolling!deals!with!client!states.!Secondly,!a!power!
grid! dependent! on! coal! resources! increasingly! distanced! from!
the! production! areas! leaving! a! very! vulnerable! and! expensive!
supply! chain.! The! key! to! maintaining! a! competitive! advantage!
40%!
50%!
60%!
70%!
80%!
90%!
100%!
%!patents!made!by!PRC!citizens,!made!in!china!
%!patents!made!by!US!citizens,!made!in!US!

!
September!2010! 42!
will!be!the!ability!of!the!state!to!allow!the!innovation!required!to!
produce! and! maintain! an! advantage! in! this! area,! whilst!
maintaining! the! strength! to! project! power! overseas.! If! it! fails!
then! by! implication,! just! as! the! Dutch! lost! their! edge! in! bulk!
shipping! through! a! failure! of! innovation! as! the! entrepot! trade!
model! broke! down! under! pressure! from! pan! European!
mercantilism!(and!with!it!lost!their!economic!hegemony)!so!also!
would!not!China’s!rise!to!hegemony!be!curtailed?!It!is!interesting!
indeed! that! in! 2010! the! Chinese! state! appears! more! and! more!
concerned!with!loss!of!competitiveness!from!rising!labour!costs!
and!domestic!energy!prices48.!The!question!however!is!whether!
the! current! structure! of! Chinese! political! organisation! will!
wittingly! or! unwittingly! stimulate! the! real! solution! required!
which!will!be!innovation!in!the!power!markets.!!
!
Finally,! China’s! need! to! develop! a! sustainable! domestic! market!
for!goods!is!underlined.!If!it!does!not,!China!is!doomed!to!repeat!
the!fate!of!Spain!in!the!seventeenth!century;!blessed!with!scale!
and! apparent! opportunity! but! humbled! by! the! accident! of! its!
political! organization! (which! may! be! in! turn! an! accident! of!
topography)! that! ultimately! prevents! the! innovation! necessary!
to!encourage!the!development!of!domestic!markets.!Will!China!
be! haunted! by! the! ghosts! of! the! Spain’s! decline! where! “the!
economies! of! coast! and! interior! were! responding! to! different!
situations! and! were! being! drawn! apart”! as! in! seventeenth!
century!Iberia,!despite!the!best!efforts!of!the!centre?49!
!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
48!I!am!indebted!to!Andy!Lees!of!UBS!who!has!emphasized!these!points!in!numerous!briefing!
notes.!
49!Ringrose!pg!12!

!
September!2010! 43!
British!&!Dutch!commercial!success!in!the!seventeenth!century!
was! primarily! the! product! of! a! particular! political! system.!
Political!organization,!we!have!argued,!needs!to!be!optimum!for!
encouraging! innovation! among! the! mercantile! community.!
Where!it!was!subOoptimal,!as!in!the!French!East!Indies,!the!result!
was!trading!(and!ultimately!political)!failure.!Indeed,!where!the!
state’s! involvement! in! trade! was! overbearing! or! unlucky,! the!
unintentional! consequences! could! be! highly! destructive.!
Douglass!North’s!framework!for!the!stages!of!economic!growth!
identifies! the! need! for50! coercive! political! order! in! an! early!
industrial! society! as! business! becomes! more! complex! than!
simple! local! exchange! within! villages! and! traditional! coercive!
measures!become!insufficient.!However,!as!commerce!becomes!
more! sophisticated,! and! above! all! more! specialized,! with! the!
development!of!secondary!and!derivative!markets!(and!the!need!
to!innovate!becomes!more!pressing)!one!implication!of!our!work!
is!that!the!efficacy!of!coercion!declines.!In!this!context!the!attacks!
on!information!server!Google!by!the!Chinese!state!have!echoes!
of,!in!Cole’s!words,!the!French!attempts!to!“arrest!the!forces!of!
change”.!!
!
Clearly,!however,!our!brief!survey!does!not!establish!the!absence!
of! the! three! preconditions! in! twenty! first! century! China!
identified! above! as! being! the! necessary! causes! of! seventeenth!
century! trading! success.! As! such,! we! in! no! way! demonstrate!
China’s!inevitable!decline.!!
!
Nevertheless,! we! hope! that! our! analysis! does! provide! a! fresh!
framework! for! addressing! the! risks! facing! Chinese! economic!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
50!D.C.North,!“Institutions,!institutional!change!and!economic!performance”,!Cambridge!
University!Press,!1990,!pg!119O121!

!
September!2010! 44!
hegemony! in! the! twenty! first! century,! one! based! on! political!
organisation! rather! than! economic! determinism.! For! the!
implication! is! striking.! If! the! preconditions! for! an! innovative!
system! do! not! exist! in! China,! and! yet! the! threats! of!
subcontracting!do,!then!the!absence!of!this!(often!unintentional)!
system! could! mean! China’s! ability! to! remain! master! the! factor!
markets! is! compromised! and! her! rise! to! economic! hegemony!
would!be!stillborn.!
!

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