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# 7.4 Forecasting Techniques

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# 7.4 Forecasting Techniques

Forecasting Techniques

Forecasting Techniques

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### 7.4 Forecasting Techniques

1. 1. Project Management Key Concepts
2. 2. Cost Forecasting
3. 3. What is it? As the project progresses, the project team may develop forecasts for how much it will cost to complete the project, and compare these to the planned Budget (Budget at Completion). Cost Forecasting
4. 4. What is it? Project Forecasting techniques can include: • Estimate at Completion (EAC) • Estimate to Complete (ETC) • Variance at Completion (VAC) • To Complete Performance Index (TCPI) Cost Forecasting Project budget of \$10,000, where 30% completed, against 40% planned and \$5,000 spent so far.
5. 5. Cost Forecasting Estimate at Completion (EAC) Is the expected total cost of completing all the work. EAC = AC + BAC – EV (If future work will be completed at planned rate) EAC = BAC/CPI) (If CPI remains the same) EAC = AC + [(BAC – EV)/(CPI x SPI)] (If both the CPI and SPI influence the remaining work) EAC = AC + Bottom-up ETC (If the initial plan is no longer valid) Project budget of \$10,000, where 30% completed, against 40% planned and \$5,000 spent so far. EAC = \$5,000 + (\$10,000 - \$3000) = \$5,000 + \$7,000 = \$12,000
6. 6. Cost Forecasting Estimate at Completion (EAC) Is the expected total cost of completing all the work. EAC = AC + BAC – EV (If future work will be completed at planned rate) EAC = BAC/CPI [CPI = EV/AC] (If CPI remains the same) EAC = AC + [(BAC – EV)/(CPI x SPI)] (If both the CPI and SPI influence the remaining work) EAC = AC + Bottom-up ETC (If the initial plan is no longer valid) Project budget of \$10,000, where 30% completed, against 40% planned and \$5,000 spent so far. EAC = \$10,000 / (\$3,000/\$5000) = \$10,000 / 0.60 = \$16,667
7. 7. Cost Forecasting Estimate at Completion (EAC) Is the expected total cost of completing all the work. EAC = AC + BAC – EV (If future work will be completed at planned rate) EAC = BAC/CPI [CPI = EV/AC] (If CPI remains the same) EAC = AC + [(BAC – EV)/(CPI x SPI)] (If both the CPI and SPI influence the remaining work) EAC = AC + Bottom-up ETC (If the initial plan is no longer valid) Project budget of \$10,000, where 30% completed, against 40% planned and \$5,000 spent so far. EAC = \$5,000 + (\$10,000-\$3000)/((EV/AC) x (EV/PV)) (0.45) = \$5,000 + (\$7,000/(0.60 x 0.75)) \$15,555 = \$20,555
8. 8. Cost Forecasting Estimate to Complete (ETC) Is the expected cost to finish all the remaining project work. ETC = EAC – AC (Estimate at Completion – Actual Cost) Project budget of \$10,000, where 30% completed, against 40% planned and \$5,000 spent so far. (\$12,000) ETC = (\$5000 + (\$10,000-\$3,000)) - \$5,000 = \$7,000
9. 9. Cost Forecasting Variance at Completion (VAC) Is the estimated difference in cost at the completion of the project. VAC = BAC – EAC Positive: Ahead of Schedule; Negative: Behind Schedule Project budget of \$10,000, where 30% completed, against 40% planned and \$5,000 spent so far. (\$7,000) VAC = \$10,000 – (\$5000 + (\$10,000-\$3,000)) = -\$2,000
10. 10. Cost Forecasting To Complete Performance Index (TCPI) The efficiency that must be maintained in order to complete your project as planned. • TCPI = (BAC – EV)/(BAC – AC) • > 1 Harder to Complete, < 1 Easier to Complete Project budget of \$10,000, where 30% completed, against 40% planned and \$5,000 spent so far. TCPI = (\$10,000 - \$3,000) / (\$10,000 - \$5000) = \$7,000 / \$5,000 = 1.4 (harder to complete)