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DWS16 - Mobile networks forum - Frederic Pujol, IDATE DigiWorld

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5G outlook and verticals: 5G in 2020... of before?
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DWS16 - Mobile networks forum - Frederic Pujol, IDATE DigiWorld

  1. 1. 5G outlook and verticals 5G in 2020… or before? Mobile Networks Forum 17 November 2016
  2. 2. 5G development and timetable 5G services as soon as 2018?
  3. 3. Copyright © IDATE 2016, 3 Mobile generations: timeline, standards and services ~1980 ~1990 ~2000 ~2010 ~2020 Generations Timeline Standards & radio interfaces NMT, AMPS, TACS GSM, IS-95, PDC WCDMA, CDMA 2000, TD-SCDMA LTE 5G-NR Services & characteristics Voice + SMS, low-speed data + High-speed data + Broadband data, Low latency Gigabit data, IoT, verticals, Ultra-low latency, security Key technologies Analog technology, Mobility management Digital technology, International roaming, SIM card, packed data Circuit & packet switched WCDMA Full-IP, OFDMA SDN/NFV, Network slicing, massive MIMO, mmWave, Licensed & unlicensed spectrum… 1G Mobile telephony 2G Digital mobile telephony 3G Mobile data 4G Mobile broadband 5G Gigabit wireless services & digitisation of the economy
  4. 4. Copyright © IDATE 2016, 4 5G benefits and timetable What will 5G bring?  A unique infrastructure to meet all needs  A new flexible & programmable radio interface able to address diverse requirements, reduced latency (1 ms)  Very high throughputs and capacity, use of spectrum >6GHz  Evolved Mobile BroadBand (eMBB): higher throughputs  Massive Machine Type Communication: capability to support a very important number of connections of objects with limited battery life and low cost requirements. Smart building, logistics, tracking and fleet management  Critical Machine Type Communication: very small latencies and reliability. Traffic safety and control, industrial applications and control, remote manufacturing, training, surgery When?  Before 2020: tests, limited commercial services (fixed wireless access)  2020: introduction of first real 5G services with (improved MIMO, more carrier aggregation, …)  2025: all functionalities deployed, significant mmWave deployments 3 main use cases of 5G and their specific requirements Source: SK Telecom Source: China Academy of telecommunication Technology
  5. 5. Copyright © IDATE 2016, 5 Requirements before standardizing: full availability, latency, reliability • Improved throughputs but also about higher mobility (up to 500 km/h), lower energy efficiency, improved latency in the range of 1 ms • Flexibility : operation on any kind of spectrum (low/high/very high) • Virtualization of network functions and SDR to foster convergence of multiple Radio Access Technologies, either 3GPP based or not (such as WiFi) • Tight integration with 4G, thanks to an adaptive air interface with both backward and forward compatibility • Network architecture to go beyond the traditional cellular architecture with ultra densified networks, user equipment serving as relays, broadcast communication … Performance objectives for 5G
  6. 6. Copyright © IDATE 2016, 6 5G development: standardization is a long process 3GPP Several players with different interest are involved  Regulation authorities and standardization bodies  Mobile Network operators and service providers  Equipment (infrastructure and terminals) and software vendors A roadmap aligned on the ITU-R deadline for recognition as a an International Mobile Telecommunication system. Deadline set for 2019 A phased development approach must secure early 5G deployments around 2020  Initial focus on TDD, frequency bands between 6 and 40 GHz with LTE air interface, demonstration at Winter Olympics game in South Korea in 2018 and first commercial deployments in 2020  In practice first 5G commercial networks should still be operated on frequencies bellow 6 GHz. Higher frequencies will be harnessed later on between 2020 and 2030 (except fixed wireless access)  Phase 1: Release 15, phase 2 (full IMT 2020, NR): Release 16 Source: 3GPP November 2016
  7. 7. Copyright © IDATE 2016, 7 Network slicing  Network slicing (network virtualization) is a key feature to enable several players with diverging needs to coexist on the same infrastructures with guaranteed level of QoS. • A native SDN / NFV based architecture • 3 independent layers (infrastructure, business enablement & application) • An orchestrator to create independent slices and allocate resources of each layer to fulfill specific use case 5G business models  Mobile operators are looking at new ways to monetise 5G: pay-per- use, Private network with dedicated spectrum operated by MNOs…  IoT challenge  Will 5G really drive industry transformation? 5G challenges (1/2) Source: 3GPP
  8. 8. Copyright © IDATE 2016, 8 Spectrum for 5G Europe: 3.4-3.8 GHz, 24.5-27.5 GHz, 31.8-33.4 GHz and 40.5-43.5 GHz More than 10 GHz allocated to mobile in the USA in new bands More sharing needed. Facilitated by: - High path loss in mmWave, antenna technology, HetNets - Quantity of spectrum available will provide more options 5G challenges (2/2) Source: MIC
  9. 9. Copyright © IDATE 2016, 9 5G tests Many trials and collaborations were announced in 2016 with speeds of tens of Gbps: Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) will probably be the first « 5G »: tests will start in 2017 in the USA Commercial service likely in 2018-2019 in the USA and maybe in South Korea • AT&T tested 5G in Austin, Texas in Q2 2016. Field trials of 5G are expected before year-end. • Verizon is to test 5G in the company's innovation centers in Waltham, Mass., and San Francisco. The MNO targets 4K TV for its 5G tests. • Plans to use 28 GHz and 37 GHz bands for this service. Probably for urban areas • Verizon Wireless announced in September 2016 that it plans to compete with cable operators. First commercial deployment in Boston? • SK Telecom showed demos using the 28 GHz band and is still talking about its plans to be the first to debut “commercial” 5G service in time for the 2018 Winter Olympics. • In February 2016, KT collaborated with Ericsson and managed to transmit data at the speed of 25.3Gbps by using mmWave. 9
  10. 10. Copyright © IDATE 2016, 10 Major 5G initiatives and focus Europe The 5G PPP is part of the EU Commission Horizon 2020 programme. With 19 projects involving academic research centres and industry players, it is expected to foster innovation in Europe. South Korea In South Korea, the 5G mobile strategy was defined as early as January 2014 by the Korean Government (Ministry of Science, ICT and Future Planning). 2014-2020. 1.6 trillion KRW joint investment from both the Government and the private sector. Japan The 5G Mobile Forum (5GMF, was established late in September 2014. The Radio Policy Vision Council of the MIC stated that strong cooperation among industries, academia and government was essential for early realisation of 5G. USA February 2014: 5G Americas began work on a technical group project on “promoting Americas leadership in 5G mobile broadband”. new network architectures, spectral efficiency improvements, dynamic coordination from Baseband Unit (BBU) pooling, Heterogeneous Networks (HetNets) and densification (cell splitting). China Based on the original IMT-Advanced Promotion Group, the IMT-2020 (5G) Promotion Group was launched by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Science and Technology in February 2013. The platform’s mission is to promote the development of 5G technologies in China and to facilitate cooperation with foreign companies and organisations. Source: IDATE in 5G full steam ahead, November 2015
  11. 11. Copyright © IDATE 2016, 11 5G in Europe: 5G PPP - 3 or 4 phases (2014-2020) • First phase (2014-2016) • 19 projects • 1 Coordination & support action, 15 Research & Innovation projects, 3 Innovation projects • 165 organisations involved • 128 MEUR • Second phase: optimisation (2016-2017) • Large scale trials (2019-2020) • New air interfaces • Easier and more flexible network management • Backhaul / fronthaul improvements • Latency reduction • Network slicing • Improving collaboration between cells • How to implement security in the system
  12. 12. Copyright © IDATE 2016, 12 5G in Asia China • China is running collaborative research programs, which are now starting to become more accessible for non-Chinese organisations. The main programs are: • IMT-2020 (5G) Promotion Group • 863 Research Program • Future Forum South Korea • Similar like in Japan 5G activities in Korea are coordinated by 5G Forum, which has members from industry and the research community. This group has developed rather detailed technical reports on the 5G system with a focus on radio systems. • Strong push by the government • Winter Olympic games in 2018 Japan • Japan focused 5G activities in The 5G Mobile Communications Promotion Forum (, which is bringing together industry, standards bodies and the academic domain. 5GMF developed white papers in particular on the 5G vision. • 2020 olympics
  13. 13. Copyright © IDATE 2016, 13 5G in the Americas: 5G Americas and players’ push 5G activities are mainly undertaken by individual industry companies, industry associations, and the academic domain The main activities are on-going at: • Intel Strategic Research Alliance (ISRA), • NYU Wireless Research Center [24] mainly dealing with the investigation of millimetre wave systems • 4G Americas involves major industries from the US and has produced several white papers on 5G • Stepped into pre-standardisation work for 5G very early • Many white papers published • MBB Evolution towards 5G • 5G spectrum recommendations • 5G Technology Evolution Recommendations FCC quickly identified 5G spectrum • In July 2016 approved an order making the US the first country in the world to open up 28, 37 & 39 GHz bands for 5G • 600 MHz band: difficult and expensive process (reverse auction) • Citizens Broadband Radio service in the 3.5 GHz band as “landmarks in using new sharing tools to open up more mid-band spectrum.” Wheeler noted that it is “interesting that this is apparently where Europe sees its 5G developing.”
  14. 14. 5G and verticals Expectations and likely adoption by verticals
  15. 15. Copyright © IDATE 2016, 15 Creation of the 5G Automotive Association Founded by Audi, BMW Group, Daimler AG, Ericsson, Huawei, Intel, Nokia and Qualcomm in September 2016 Defining and harmonizing use cases Supporting standardization and regulatory bodies Addressing vehicle-to-everything technology requirements Running joint innovation and development projects Verticals targeted by 5G Source: Bosch NGMN and the regional associations have identified various promising vertical sectors for 5G Automotive, Energy, eHealth, Media & Entertainment, Factory of the Future look promising Transport & logistics, Agriculture & forestry could also contribute to 5G growth
  16. 16. Copyright © IDATE 2016, 16 5G and the Automotive Sector Key requirements • High bandwidth for infotainment services • Low bandwidth uplink communication for telematics, security and insurance services • Ultra low latencies for automation and high reliability for autonomous driving services Barriers • Timeline: demand for rapidly available technologies • Risk of competing technologies • Business model requires clarification for infotainment services, low willingness to pay for end user • Security can be a major issue A market with a strong potential to be exploited rapidly Drivers • The connected car is a large, developing market • Regulations support initial deployments • Diverse requirements well fit for the virtualization approach of 5G • Automotive players very invovled in 5GPP
  17. 17. Copyright © IDATE 2016, 17 5G and Manufacturing Key requirements • High bandwidth for video, AR/VR services • Low power and cost communication for sensor networks • Ultra low latencies for automation • High reliability and dependability of the network Drivers • Development of the factory of the future trend • opportunity for research and innovation initiatives to adjust their agendas • older wired or wireless alternatives are unlikely to meet all the requirements of the domain Barriers • Slow take up (5 – 10 years after consumer markets) • Strong sensitivity to costs • Long decision process • Low trust in ICT solutions for reliability • Strong focus on security • Interoperability with legacy solutions A market with a significant potential, but a delayed adoption
  18. 18. Copyright © IDATE 2016, 18 5G and Energy Key requirements • Low cost, low bandwidth uplink for smart meters monitoring • Long equipment lifespan and support (15+ years) • High reliability, security and robustness • Guaranteed quality of service • Ultra low latency and ultra high availability for network control use cases Drivers • Growing investment in smart grid equipment and projects (over 400 billion $ until 2020). • Current wired solutions have significant drawbacks and limits • A developing smart meter market. Barriers • Important cost constraints • 2G and LPWA could be adopted for smart meters • Critical infrastructure with high requirements for Quality of Service and availability in worst case scenarios. • Very high requirements for backhaul and backbone communication networks A market for 5G in smart meters, if costs can be brought down
  19. 19. Copyright © IDATE 2016, 19 5G Adoption by Verticals Few vertical use cases have a real potential to act as leaders of 5G deployments, but once deployed, many have a strong potential of adoption over the years Source: IDATE, in 5G verticals, November 2016
  20. 20. Copyright © IDATE 2016, 20 First available 5G service is likely to be fixed wireless access Focus on high data rates and capacity in Japan, South Korea and USA Focus on vertical markets in Europe? 5G challenges Network challenges: slicing, smooth introduction of technological innovations Spectrum harmonisation Business models Verticals & 5G Most promising verticals? Is 5G timetable and characteristics adapted to vertical requirements? Role for satellite & broadcasting? Summary