2017 Global Economic Outlook by Dun & Bradstreet

Dun & Bradstreet’s
Global Economic Outlook 2017 and
Beyond
Making Sense of the New World Order
Country Insight Services
November 2016

2
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Western Europe
Agenda
North America
Latin America
Asia-Pacific
The Top Five Economic Game Changers
Short-Term Economic Outlook (G20)
Introduction: A Global View of Risks
Eastern Europe and Central Asia
Middle East and North Africa

Introduction: A Global View of Risks

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An Unprecedented Recession, Hence Global
Risks Remain Elevated Seven Years After It
Ended …
CIPS Global Risk Index (CIPS GRI) – powered by Dun & Bradstreet
(100=Most Risk)
Source: Dun & Bradstreet
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Q3
1994
Q3
1996
Q3
1998
Q3
2000
Q3
2002
Q3
2004
Q3
2006
Q3
2008
Q3
2010
Q3
2012
Q3
2014
Q3
2016
North America
Latin America
Asia Pacific
Western & Central Europe
Middle East and North Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa

6
In Fact Risk Has Increased Globally, As
Measured by the D&B Country Risk Score
July 2009 Oct 2016

7
D&B’s Top Risks Facing the Global Economy …
Region Risk Likelihood
Global
Impact
(1-5)
Global
Business
Impact Score
(1-100)
North
America
Global uncertainty among policy-
makers, businesses and households
over the lack of detail in President-
elect Trump's policies curtails
business activity in the US as well
global cross-border trade and
investment prospects
70 3 42
Western
Europe
Hard Brexit will lead to the disruption
disruption of supply chains in
Europe
65 3 39
Asia-
Pacific
In China, default contagion from bad
debts in industry and local
government triggers state rescues
for mid-tier banks
50 3 30
Pan-
regional
Rapidly growing cyber-dependence
and connectivity lead to increasingly
frequent and more damaging cyber
attacks, with global ramifications
70 2 28
North
America
Congress has little appetite for trade
deals, while new President keeps
election promise. TPP and TTIP are
scrapped and NAFTA is
70 2 28
Pan-
regional
Deal between the EU and Turkey
eventually collapses, thereby
to a renewed migrant crisis in
Western Europe
45 3 27
The latest Dun & Bradstreet Global Business Impact score highlights a
further worsening of risks for businesses across the world. The nature of
risk is continues to change, with four new entries among our top ten risks
led by the pervasive political uncertainty in the US and the UK.
Global Business Impact Score
274
226
265
283
272
250
254 260
231 230
235
243
281
200
225
250
275
300
Q3
2013
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Q3
2014
Q4
2014
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
2015
Q4
2015
Q1
2016
Q2
2016
Q3
2016
Q4
2016

8
… Drive Our Forecast for Slow, Middling Growth
Real GDP Growth (%)
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
World 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.7 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1
Advanced economies 1.8 2.0 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1
US 2.4 2.4 1.6 2.0 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.9
Euroland 1.0 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5
Japan 0.0 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.0
UK 3.1 2.2 1.8 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7
Emerging economies 4.2 3.3 3.3 4.2 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.7
Brazil 0.1 -3.8 -3.4 0.9 1.5 2.0 2.1 2.3
Russia 0.7 -3.7 -0.6 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6
India 7.2 7.6 7.5 7.9 8.0 8.0 8.0 7.2
China 7.3 6.9 6.5 6.0 5.8 6.0 5.5 5.1

10
Short-Term Economic Outlook
Short-term
Economic
Outlook
Long-term
Economic
Potential
Market
Potential
FX Risk
Transfer Risk
Business
Regulatory
Environment
Business
Continuity
Political/
Insecurity Risk
Expropriation/
Nationalisation
Risk

Short-Term Economic Outlook (January 2012)
Short-term
Economic
Outlook
Long-term
Economic
Potential
Market
Potential
FX Risk
Transfer Risk
Business
Regulatory
Environment
Business
Continuity
Political/
Insecurity Risk
Expropriation/
Nationalisation
Risk

Short-term
Economic
Outlook
Long-term
Economic
Potential
Market
Potential
FX Risk
Transfer Risk
Business
Regulatory
Environment
Business
Continuity
Political/
Insecurity Risk
Expropriation/
Nationalisation
Risk

Short-Term Economic Outlook (October 2016)
Short-term
Economic
Outlook
Long-term
Economic
Potential
Market
Potential
FX Risk
Transfer Risk
Business
Regulatory
Environment
Business
Continuity
Political/
Insecurity Risk
Expropriation/
Nationalisation
Risk

Economic Baseline Figures
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Percent
Source: Office for National Statistics, Dun & Bradstreet
Real GDP (Forecast) Real GDP (Actual)
Inflation (Forecast) Inflation (Actual)
• Some metrics of economic performance that the fundamentals of the economy are solid: for example,
domestic output expanded by 0.5% quarter on quarter in Q3.
• Inflation is also gradually picking up on account of a cheaper pound (albeit remaining well below the
Bank of England’s medium-term target of 2%).

Key Economic Indicators
• Retail trade growth accelerated
over the quarter.
• Markit/CIPS’s UK Construction
PMI tallies with the suggested
strengthening of momentum in
the sector.
• Overall, forward-looking indicators also bode well for future economic activity, with
Markit’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector rising to its
highest level since mid-2014.

Business Failures
Dun & Bradstreet data for Q3 show a drop in the amount of corporate insolvencies: some 14%
lower than the preceding quarter, possibly tracking the resilience of the economy, which expanded
more than previously anticipated in the three months to September.

Prompt Payment Snapshot
Despite stronger-than expected real GDP growth in Q3, a weaker pound, and robust retail sales,
Dun & Bradstreet’s data reveals that the proportions of prompt payments decreased slightly over
the quarter.

Despite the current economic bonanza, Dun & Bradstreet predicts that
Brexit’s medium- to long-term economic impact on the UK will be
significant and negative.
 We have downgraded the country’s risk rating from DB2c to DB2d (still just within
the ‘low risk’ category). We are also maintaining our ‘deteriorating’ rating outlook.
 Prime Minister Theresa May’s government intended line of action likely to make it
increasingly unlikely that the UK will retain access to the EU’s common market once
Brexit is eventually completed.
 The possible loss of the passporting rights that currently allow UK-based banks to
operate across the EU is a major source of concern.
o Brexit could take a heavy toll on the UK’s financial sector: up to 70,000 finance
industry jobs could be lost if Britain leaves the EU, according to the industry
body TheCityUK.
 Several other UK-listed companies, are being affected by a weaker pound.

The Baseline Scenario
• Parliament will approve Article 50 invocation
• PM invokes Article 50 in Q1 2017
• EU membership ends Q1 2019
• However: transition deal required post Q1 2019
• Hence: EU laws likely to remain in force until early 2020s
• After that: Free Trade Agreement

The economic outlook is improving:
 There is reason to believe that the economy is switching into a slightly higher gear in
the final months of the year;
 Inflation rates remain low, albeit rising, real wage growth is still robust, and the labour
market also continues to provide good news…
… However, political risk is rising:
 Upcoming elections in the Netherlands, France and Germany in 2017, in addition to
Brexit.
 Weak minority government in Spain in October 2016 and the prospect of government
collapse over the outcome of a referendum in November in Italy.
 The outcome of US presidential elections could bolster consensus for anti-EU parties.

26
North America Also Stuck In the New Mediocre
2014 2015 2016E 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F
US 2.4 2.6 1.6 2.0 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.0
Canada 2.5 1.1 1.4 2.1 2.3 2.0 2.1 2.1
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
Q1-2013 Q2-2013 Q3-2013 Q4-2013 Q1-2014 Q2-2014 Q3-2014 Q4-2014 Q1-2015 Q2-2015 Q3-2015 Q4-2015 Q1-2016 Q2-2016 Q3-2016
GDP, topline Consumption
New Government’s Policies Will Aim to Add More Drivers of Growth

27
… But Long Term Metrics Also Important
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
1940
1944
1948
1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
Federal Debt Held by the Public, % of GDP
-10
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
2026
Total Deficit/Surplus, % of GDP
Average Deficit, 1966 to 2015=2.8%
Sources: Congressional Budget Office, Dun & Bradstreet

Canada: Some Domestic Clarity…
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: Statistics Canada, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Office of National Statistics , Banca
d’Italia, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Bank of Japan, Banque de France
Canada: Government Debt as Percentage of GDP (%)
U.S.: General Government Debt Outstanding as a % of GDP (%)
U.K.: General Government Outstanding Debt as a % of GDP (%)
Italy: General Government Debt Outstanding as a % of GDP (%)
Australia: General Government Outstanding Debt as a Percentage of GDP (%)
Japan: General Government Debt as a Percentage of GDP (%)
France: General Government Debt as a Percentage of GDP(%)
89.5%
100.1%
103.8%
105.9%
133.4%
159.9%
193.7%
0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250%
Germany
U.S.
EA 19
France
U.K.
Canada
Australia
Source: Statistical Offices of the European Communities, Federal
Reserve Board, Statistics Canada, Australia Bureau of Statistics
Household Outstanding Debt to Gross
Disposable Income (Q2 2016)

…but International Uncertainty Reigns
• An impasse regarding the implementation of the
Canada and European Union Comprehensive
Economic Trade Agreement (CETA) has been
resolved.
• Despite the compromise, the treaty still requires ratification
by all national and regional parliaments of EU member
nations.
• High levels of doubt surround the longevity of the North American Free Trade
Agreement (NAFTA)
• Enactment of Article 2205 remains in the realm of possibility.
• Official withdrawal only six-months after notice is given.

Eastern Europe & Central Asia: Key
Issues
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
-8%
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016f
2017f
2018f
2019f
2020f
2021f
Regional growth is strongly correlated with oil prices…
GDP growth y/y Oil price growth y/y
GDP growth y/y (Forecast) Oil price growth y/y (Forecast)
Source: Haver Analytics, Dun & Bradstreet
Structural impediments continue to hamper the region's business environment…
Source: World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Report 2016-2017, Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index 2015, Dun & Bradstreet
Regional ranking
Infrastructure Quality 71 [out of 138]
Property Rights 84 [out of 138]
Business Impact of Rules on FDI 85 [out of 138]
Corruption 91 [out of 168]

Eastern Europe & Central Asia: Risks &
Opportunities
Risks
FX Risk: Brexit and Trump-related
uncertainties continue to weigh on emerging
market assets and currencies throughout 2017
High probability
Business Regulatory Environment:
Deteriorating government finances (due to
lower-for longer oil prices) lead to hikes in
business taxes and reductions in financial
incentives for foreign investors
Moderate probability
Political/Insecurity Risk: Escalating
geopolitical tensions between Russia and the
West prompt a direct conflict
Low probability
Opportunities
Market Potential: Brexit and Trump presidency
could mean Western sanctions on Russia eased in
2017 - opening up opportunities for exporters and
investors in the energy, defence and financial sectors
Moderate probability
Market Potential: Lower-for-longer oil prices
drives economic diversification and funnels
government investment into nascent sectors with
promising long-term potential, e.g. agriculture and
renewable energy
High probability
Long-Term Economic Potential: Lower-for-longer
oil prices prompts governments to undertake
significant structural reforms
Low probability

34
Latin America – Subdued Outlook
Sources: Haver Analytics, Dun & Bradstreet
Drivers Risks
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f
RealGDPGrowth(%)
Latin America & Caribbean World
 Gradual recovery in commodity prices
 Higher capital inflows
 Firmer external demand
 Looser domestic monetary policy
 Pro-business reforms
- Disappointing recovery in key trade partners
- Protracted weakness in export prices
- Austerity backlash = hiked political risks
- Tighter global liquidity (US Fed Funds Rate)
- New uncertainties: Brexit; radical US trade policy
shifts

35
Key Recommendations
Assess the impact of potential changes in US trade and immigration
policies on exports of agriculture (South America) and manufactured
goods (Mexico) as well as remittance inflows (Mexico, Central America).
Follow Brexit-related developments vis-à-vis changes to UK and EU
market access. Watch for new bilateral trade deals in the wake of Brexit
but expect delays in finalization of agreements.
Monitor leading currencies' volatility against the dollar. Hedge foreign
exchange risks, where possible.
Ensure compliance with anti-corruption laws to minimize reputational
risk.
Expect ongoing challenges with bureaucracy, inadequate infrastructure
and corruption.

37
88
57
44
36
33
30
28
24
24
22
21
14
12
Ireland 2010
Indonesia 1998
Spain 2007
Thailand 1997
Argentina 2002
China 2016
Malaysia 1997
Japan 1990
UK 1990
Greece 2007
Portugal 2009
South Korea 1997
US 2007
Sources: BIS, Dun &
Bradstreet
Credit to GDP ‘gap’ % GDP greater risk
Financial Cycle: China &
Asia-Pacific

Demographic Divergence Across Asia
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
China
Working Age Total Population Labor Force
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Japan
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
India
Working Age Total Population
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
East Asia
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Southeast Asia
Source: UN, National Statistical Agencies
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Thailand

40
Three Layers Undermine the Regional
Outlook
Oil Prices
Insecurity
Structural Issues

108.9
98.9
52.4
43.1
50.2
63.0
68.0
79.0
85.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2013 2014 2015 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f
USD/bbl.
Source: World Bank, Haver Analytics, Dun & Bradstreet
Average Annual Oil Prices

42
Insecurity: MENA’s Security Risks Late 2010

43
Insecurity: MENA’s Security Risks Late 2016

44
Structural Issues
Source: World Economic Forum, World Bank, Transparency International, Dun & Bradstreet

The Top Five Economic Game
Changers

What is Blockchain?
Blockchain or ‘distributed ledger technology’ is a way of electronically storing
information that is or can be:
a) Immutable (the parties involved cannot change information that has been stored
previously)
b) Allows real time clearing (if the information tracks the movement of a real-world
unit, that unit’s whereabouts and status will be recorded in real time)
c) Universally accessible and transparent
d) Protection is enabled by cryptography rather than a centralised authority
Some of this is (still) somewhat idealistic as the technology is not impervious to being
hacked (Mt Gox/Ethereum thefts)

What are the Possible Applications?
 Trade finance
 Banking
 Mining
 Credit ratings
 Stock exchange platforms
 Fraud detection
 Healthcare
 Utilities
 Real estate
 Intellectual property
 and many more

Where are We Now?
 Development of international standards underway
 Recent Blockchain trade finance milestone
 Australian Stock Exchange
Surveys on expected time of adoption show that a majority of
banks expect to use a blockchain-based technology by 2019.
Industries that are not heavily regulated have a smoother path to
adoption – e.g. diamonds industry.

Stumbling Blocks
General:
 vulnerable to rumours/scandals;
 resistance from stakeholders who risk
becoming superfluous;
 needing to replace existing processes
and platforms.
Particular to blockchain:
 Security;
 Privacy;
 Cooperation;
 Data bloat.
Images are open source

Renewable Growth Capacity has Exploded Over
the Prior 15 years
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Megawatts
Source: BP, Dun & Bradstreet
Cumulative installed geothermal power capacity Cumulative installed photovoltaic (PV) power Cumulative installed wind turbine capacity

But the Current Share Remains Low
Renewable: (6.9%)
Carbon producing: (86.8%)
Nuclear: (6.2%)
Renewable: (6.8%)
Nuclear: (5.7%)
Renewable: (7.8%)
Nuclear: (5.1%)
Renewable: (9.6%)
Carbon
producing:
(86.0%)
Nuclear: (4.4%)

Where Is Progress Being Made?
Source: BP, United Nations, Dun & Bradstreet

Tonnes Carbon Dioxide per Person
Top 21 countries by nominal size of GDP (USD)
19.8
17.0 16.7
14.8
12.9 12.4
10.3
9.5 9.3
6.8 6.7 6.3
5.7
4.8 4.7 4.4 4.3
3.7
2.4 2.3
1.7
0
5
10
15
20
25
Source: BP, United Nations, Dun & Bradstreet
2015-Tonnes Carbon Dioxide per Person

National
strategy
Incident
response
E-crime & law
enforcement
Information
sharing
R&D
Investment
Diplomacy &
trade
Defense &
crisis response
Source: Lloyd’s City Risk Index
(http://www.lloyds.com/cityriskindex/threats/cyber_attack)
Source: Melissa Hathaway, Chris Demchak, Jason Kerben, Jennifer McArdle, and
Francesca Spidalieri
(www.potomacinstitute.org/academic-centers/cyber-readiness-index)
Internet/Cybersecurity Risks
Unknown or zero
readiness
Partial
readiness
Full
readiness

59
Strengthening of Shift Towards Less Free Trade
19
14
18
17
18 18 18
17 17
21
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
G20 Trade-Restrictive Measures on the Rise
(average per month)
Sources: WTO, Dun & Bradstreet

61
Negative Interest Rates Are A Part of the New
Normal
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
Policy Rates, %
ECB Denmark Sweden Switzerland Japan
Sources: Central Banks, Dun & Bradstreet

Q A

63
Connect with the team
D&B’s Country Insight team includes seasoned economists who compile and analyze country-specific insights from all major sources:
finance ministries, central banks, local chambers of commerce, embassies, trade organizations, and other economic data sources such
as the UN, World Bank, International Monetary Fund, Organization for Economic Development, and EU.
Michelle Campbell Latin America CampbellM@DNB.com
Jas Sehmi Eastern Europe & Central Asia SehmiJ@DNB.com
Warwick Knowles Middle East & North Africa KnowlesW@DNB.com
Isaac Leung Asia Pacific, Sub-Saharan Africa LeungI@DNB.com
Oana Aristide Asia Pacific, Nordic Region AristideO@DNB.com
Adam Morehouse Asia Pacific, North America MorehouseA@DNB.com
Bodhi Ganguli North America, Sub-Saharan Africa GanguliB@DNB.com
Nalanda Matia North America MatiaN@DNB.com
Daniele Fraietta Western Europe FraiettaD@DNB.com
Markus Kuger Western Europe KugerM@DNB.com
Ben Kleber Western Europe KleberB@DNB.com

64
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our views and perspectives.
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2017 Global Economic Outlook by Dun & Bradstreet

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