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climate 
everyone’s 
business 
Climate 
Change: 
Implica0ons 
for 
Fisheries 
& 
Aquaculture 
Key 
Findings 
from 
the 
Intergovernmental 
Panel 
on 
Climate 
Change 
Fi7h 
Assessment 
Report 
May 
2014
climate 
everyone’s 
business 
Climate 
Change: 
Physical 
& 
Chemical 
Ocean 
Changes 
Greenhouse 
gas 
(GHG) 
emissions 
at 
current 
rates 
are 
projected 
to 
raise 
global 
average 
surface 
temperature 
by 
2.6–4.8oC 
by 
2100. 
Climate 
change 
is 
altering 
the 
ocean 
ecosystems 
in 
profound 
ways, 
with 
impacts 
on 
marine 
organisms, 
biodiversity, 
fisheries 
and 
aquaculture, 
coastal 
zones 
and 
humankind. 
Physical 
and 
chemical 
changes 
in 
the 
ocean 
will 
lead 
to 
a 
loss 
of 
marine 
biodiversity. 
Marine 
life 
will 
be 
directly 
impacted 
by: 
§ 
Rising 
water 
temperatures 
§ 
Rising 
levels 
of 
carbon 
dioxide 
(CO2) 
§ 
Hypoxia 
(inadequate 
oxygen) 
As 
seawater 
absorbs 
more 
carbon 
dioxide, 
it 
becomes 
more 
acidic. 
Warmer 
seawater 
holds 
less 
oxygen.
climate 
everyone’s 
business 
Climate 
Change: 
Rising 
Sea 
Levels 
& 
Ocean 
Acidifica0on 
Sea 
level 
risks 
to 
low-­‐lying 
coastal 
regions 
include: 
§ Salt 
and 
freshwater 
pond 
and 
lagoon 
zones 
vulnerable 
to 
inundaRon 
§ Sea 
levels 
0.45–0.82 
metres 
higher 
than 
present 
§ Increased 
severity 
of 
tropical 
storms 
and 
ocean 
surges 
Ocean 
acidifica0on 
impacts: 
§ ReducRon 
of 
animals’ 
ability 
to 
produce 
shells 
and 
skeletons, 
and 
interference 
with 
fish 
navigaRon 
§ Mussel, 
oyster 
and 
shellfish 
growth 
affected 
by 
shell-­‐ 
thinning 
and 
increased 
mortality 
§ Coral 
reef 
damage 
will 
affect 
fishery 
producRon 
in 
tropical 
regions
climate 
Climate 
Change: 
Impacts 
on 
Wild 
Fish 
everyone’s 
business Climate 
will 
impact 
fish 
migra0on, 
breeding, 
spawning 
and 
feeding 
§ Fish 
Redistribu0on: 
Fish 
populaRons 
are 
shi7ing 
away 
from 
tropical 
laRtudes, 
and 
there 
will 
be 
high 
local 
exRncRon 
rates 
in 
the 
tropics 
and 
semi-­‐ 
enclosed 
seas. 
§ Fish 
Size: 
Large 
fish 
will 
have 
a 
smaller 
maximum 
body 
size 
due 
to 
reduced 
oxygen 
capacity 
of 
seawater. 
§ More 
‘Dead 
Zones’: 
Areas 
depleted 
of 
oxygen 
will 
become 
more 
common 
due 
to 
straRficaRon 
from 
warming 
water. 
paZerns. 
Not 
all 
fish 
will 
be 
able 
to 
adapt, 
and 
some 
stocks 
will 
poten0ally 
die 
out. 
Climate 
change 
and 
ocean 
acidificaRon 
will 
be 
exacerbated 
by 
other 
stressors: 
§ 
Overfishing 
§ 
Habitat 
loss 
§ 
PolluRon
climate 
Climate 
Change: 
Impacts 
on 
Ocean 
Ecosystems 
everyone’s 
business Changes 
are 
already 
affec0ng 
the 
distribu0on 
and 
abundance 
of 
marine 
organisms 
in 
the 
oceans. 
Climate 
will 
impact 
fisheries 
and 
aquaculture 
producRon 
for 
decades 
to 
centuries, 
accelera0ng 
aZer 
2050. 
§ Effects 
on 
all 
marine 
animals 
– 
from 
microscopic 
phytoplankton 
to 
large 
predatory 
fish 
like 
marlins 
– 
could 
seriously 
disrupt 
food 
webs. 
§ Rapidly 
eroding 
reef 
habitats 
threaten 
collapse 
for 
some 
coastal 
fisheries 
and 
fish 
nurseries. 
More 
than 
half 
the 
world’s 
coral 
reefs 
are 
at 
medium-­‐ 
or 
high-­‐risk. 
§ Harmful 
algal 
blooms 
could 
cause 
mass 
die-­‐ 
offs 
of 
wild 
and 
farmed 
fish.
climate 
Climate 
Change: 
Impacts 
on 
Aquaculture 
(1/2) 
everyone’s 
business Three 
billion 
people 
rely 
on 
fish 
for 
~20% 
of 
their 
animal 
protein. 
400 
million 
people 
depend 
criRcally 
on 
fish 
for 
food. 
Demand 
is 
likely 
to 
increase. 
Climate 
change 
threatens 
current 
and 
future 
produc0on 
levels, 
food 
security, 
and 
fisheries 
industry 
employment. 
§ Inability 
to 
catch 
sufficient 
feed-­‐fish 
§ Lower 
catches 
impacRng 
fishmeal 
and 
fish 
oil 
produc0on 
§ Acidic 
water 
affecRng 
shellfish 
growth 
§ Increasing 
flood 
risks 
to 
fish 
and 
shrimp 
ponds 
§ Coastal 
species 
at 
increased 
risk 
of 
ex0nc0on 
§ Algal 
blooms 
causing 
possible 
mass 
die-­‐offs 
in 
farmed 
fish 
§ Increasing 
illegal, 
unreported, 
or 
unregulated 
(IUU) 
fishing 
ShiZing 
fish 
stocks 
in 
interna0onal 
waters 
may 
present 
issues 
for 
governments 
aZempRng 
to 
reach 
fishing 
agreements.
climate 
Climate 
Change: 
Impacts 
on 
Aquaculture 
(2/2) 
everyone’s 
business Global 
fisheries’ 
losses 
are 
esRmated 
at 
$17-­‐41 
billion 
by 
2050, 
with 
East 
Asia 
and 
the 
Pacific 
most 
affected. 
In 
the 
Pacific 
alone, 
producRon 
of 
reef 
fish 
could 
decrease 
by 
up 
to 
20% 
by 
2050. 
Small-­‐scale 
fisheries 
account 
for 
~56% 
of 
the 
catch 
and 
91% 
of 
fishery 
workers 
in 
the 
Central 
and 
Western 
Equatorial 
Pacific, 
Micronesia 
and 
Melanesia, 
and 
Southeast 
Asia. 
A 
decline 
in 
global 
shellfish 
producRon 
is 
projected 
between 
2020 
and 
2060. 
As 
fisheries’ 
produc0on 
decline, 
commodiRes 
will 
increase 
in 
price. 
Posi0ve 
effects 
of 
climate 
change 
for 
aquaculture 
and 
fishing 
include: 
Faster 
growth 
rates; 
Faster 
food 
conversion 
efficiency; 
Longer 
growing 
seasons; 
Range 
expansion; 
New 
fishing 
areas 
available 
from 
decreases 
in 
ice 
cover
climate 
Climate 
Change: 
Resilience 
everyone’s 
business Natural 
and 
fishing 
industry 
abili0es 
to 
adapt 
are 
limited. 
Some 
adaptaRon 
choices 
are 
complex. 
There 
are 
likely 
to 
be 
situa0ons 
where 
adapta0on 
is 
impossible. 
Technical 
measures 
already 
familiar 
to 
fishers 
and 
fish 
famers 
are: 
§ 
SelecRve 
fishing 
gear 
§ 
Planned 
moves 
to 
new 
fishing 
grounds 
§ 
Aquaculture 
expansion 
to 
compensate 
for 
fish 
and 
shellfish 
decline 
Adapta0on 
will 
become 
more 
difficult 
as 
climate 
change 
progresses.
climate 
Climate 
Change: 
Mi0ga0on 
Poten0al 
(1/2) 
everyone’s 
business OpportuniRes 
to 
reduce 
GHG 
emissions 
for 
the 
fishing, 
aquaculture 
and 
seafood 
industries 
are, 
in 
general, 
not 
specific 
to 
the 
Industry 
is 
dependent 
on 
fossil 
fuels 
for 
transport 
in 
fishing 
vessels 
Transport: 
§ Improving 
the 
sector. 
energy 
efficiency 
of 
vehicles 
§ Switching 
to 
less 
carbon-­‐intensive 
fuels, 
e.g., 
biofuels 
§ Moving 
to 
electric 
vehicles 
§ Changing 
the 
mode 
of 
carriage, 
e.g., 
from 
air 
to 
sea 
§ Reducing 
the 
overall 
number 
of 
journeys 
and 
in 
carrying 
produce 
to 
market. 
Policies 
aimed 
at 
reducing 
GHG 
emissions 
across 
the 
wider 
economy 
could 
be 
relevant 
to 
this 
industry.
climate 
Climate 
Change: 
Mi0ga0on 
Poten0al 
(2/2) 
everyone’s 
business The 
fishing 
industry 
can 
consider 
ways 
to 
miRgate 
ecosystem 
impacts: 
Fish 
redistribu0on: 
§ Undertake 
vulnerability 
assessments 
§ Strengthen 
coastal 
zone 
management 
§ Reduce 
aquaculture 
dependence 
on 
fishmeal 
Oxygen-­‐depleted 
‘dead 
zones’: 
§ Reassess 
and 
reinforce 
marine 
protected 
areas 
§ Protect 
mangrove 
forests, 
sea 
grass 
beds 
and 
salt 
marshes 
Shellfish 
growth 
and 
produc0on: 
§ Reduce 
non-­‐climate 
stressors, 
e.g., 
polluRon 
Coral 
reefs 
at 
risk: 
§ Create 
new 
habitats 
such 
as 
ar0ficial 
reefs 
to 
act 
as 
fish 
nurseries 
in 
areas 
where 
coral 
destrucRon 
occurs
climate 
Climate 
Change: 
Conclusion 
everyone’s 
business Fisheries 
and 
aquaculture 
are 
directly 
impacted 
by 
climate 
change 
effects 
on 
the 
physical, 
chemical 
and 
biological 
composiRon 
of 
oceans. 
These 
sectors 
are 
also 
becoming 
more 
vulnerable 
to 
non-­‐climate 
stressors 
such 
as 
polluRon 
and 
over-­‐fishing. 
A 
certain 
level 
of 
impact 
is 
inevitable. 
Improved 
policies, 
management 
and 
monitoring 
systems 
may 
help 
adapt 
to 
climate 
change. 
Unchecked 
impacts 
will 
accelerate 
from 
2050, 
possibly 
for 
centuries. 
Measures 
that 
quanRfy 
‘blue 
carbon’ 
and 
allow 
blue 
carbon 
credit 
trading 
on 
internaRonal 
carbon 
markets 
could 
fund 
preservaRon 
projects 
and 
help 
build 
the 
ocean’s 
resilience 
to 
climate 
change 
impacts. 
Blue 
carbon 
Carbon 
captured 
by 
the 
world’s 
oceans 
and 
coastal 
ecosystems. 
The 
carbon 
is 
stored 
in 
the 
form 
of 
biomass 
and 
sediments 
from 
mangroves, 
salt 
marches 
and 
segrasses.
For 
more 
informa0on 
Cambridge 
InsRtute 
for 
Sustainability 
Leadership 
ipcc@cisl.cam.ac.uk 
Blake 
Lee-­‐Harwood, 
Sustainable 
Fisheries 
Partnership 
blake.lee-­‐harwood@sustainablefish.org 
European 
Climate 
FoundaRon 
AR5@europeanclimate.org 
www.cisl.cam.ac.uk/ipcc 
www.sustainablefish.org 
www.europeanclimate.org

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Climate Change: Implications for Fisheries and Aquaculture

  • 1. climate everyone’s business Climate Change: Implica0ons for Fisheries & Aquaculture Key Findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fi7h Assessment Report May 2014
  • 2. climate everyone’s business Climate Change: Physical & Chemical Ocean Changes Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at current rates are projected to raise global average surface temperature by 2.6–4.8oC by 2100. Climate change is altering the ocean ecosystems in profound ways, with impacts on marine organisms, biodiversity, fisheries and aquaculture, coastal zones and humankind. Physical and chemical changes in the ocean will lead to a loss of marine biodiversity. Marine life will be directly impacted by: § Rising water temperatures § Rising levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) § Hypoxia (inadequate oxygen) As seawater absorbs more carbon dioxide, it becomes more acidic. Warmer seawater holds less oxygen.
  • 3. climate everyone’s business Climate Change: Rising Sea Levels & Ocean Acidifica0on Sea level risks to low-­‐lying coastal regions include: § Salt and freshwater pond and lagoon zones vulnerable to inundaRon § Sea levels 0.45–0.82 metres higher than present § Increased severity of tropical storms and ocean surges Ocean acidifica0on impacts: § ReducRon of animals’ ability to produce shells and skeletons, and interference with fish navigaRon § Mussel, oyster and shellfish growth affected by shell-­‐ thinning and increased mortality § Coral reef damage will affect fishery producRon in tropical regions
  • 4. climate Climate Change: Impacts on Wild Fish everyone’s business Climate will impact fish migra0on, breeding, spawning and feeding § Fish Redistribu0on: Fish populaRons are shi7ing away from tropical laRtudes, and there will be high local exRncRon rates in the tropics and semi-­‐ enclosed seas. § Fish Size: Large fish will have a smaller maximum body size due to reduced oxygen capacity of seawater. § More ‘Dead Zones’: Areas depleted of oxygen will become more common due to straRficaRon from warming water. paZerns. Not all fish will be able to adapt, and some stocks will poten0ally die out. Climate change and ocean acidificaRon will be exacerbated by other stressors: § Overfishing § Habitat loss § PolluRon
  • 5. climate Climate Change: Impacts on Ocean Ecosystems everyone’s business Changes are already affec0ng the distribu0on and abundance of marine organisms in the oceans. Climate will impact fisheries and aquaculture producRon for decades to centuries, accelera0ng aZer 2050. § Effects on all marine animals – from microscopic phytoplankton to large predatory fish like marlins – could seriously disrupt food webs. § Rapidly eroding reef habitats threaten collapse for some coastal fisheries and fish nurseries. More than half the world’s coral reefs are at medium-­‐ or high-­‐risk. § Harmful algal blooms could cause mass die-­‐ offs of wild and farmed fish.
  • 6. climate Climate Change: Impacts on Aquaculture (1/2) everyone’s business Three billion people rely on fish for ~20% of their animal protein. 400 million people depend criRcally on fish for food. Demand is likely to increase. Climate change threatens current and future produc0on levels, food security, and fisheries industry employment. § Inability to catch sufficient feed-­‐fish § Lower catches impacRng fishmeal and fish oil produc0on § Acidic water affecRng shellfish growth § Increasing flood risks to fish and shrimp ponds § Coastal species at increased risk of ex0nc0on § Algal blooms causing possible mass die-­‐offs in farmed fish § Increasing illegal, unreported, or unregulated (IUU) fishing ShiZing fish stocks in interna0onal waters may present issues for governments aZempRng to reach fishing agreements.
  • 7. climate Climate Change: Impacts on Aquaculture (2/2) everyone’s business Global fisheries’ losses are esRmated at $17-­‐41 billion by 2050, with East Asia and the Pacific most affected. In the Pacific alone, producRon of reef fish could decrease by up to 20% by 2050. Small-­‐scale fisheries account for ~56% of the catch and 91% of fishery workers in the Central and Western Equatorial Pacific, Micronesia and Melanesia, and Southeast Asia. A decline in global shellfish producRon is projected between 2020 and 2060. As fisheries’ produc0on decline, commodiRes will increase in price. Posi0ve effects of climate change for aquaculture and fishing include: Faster growth rates; Faster food conversion efficiency; Longer growing seasons; Range expansion; New fishing areas available from decreases in ice cover
  • 8. climate Climate Change: Resilience everyone’s business Natural and fishing industry abili0es to adapt are limited. Some adaptaRon choices are complex. There are likely to be situa0ons where adapta0on is impossible. Technical measures already familiar to fishers and fish famers are: § SelecRve fishing gear § Planned moves to new fishing grounds § Aquaculture expansion to compensate for fish and shellfish decline Adapta0on will become more difficult as climate change progresses.
  • 9. climate Climate Change: Mi0ga0on Poten0al (1/2) everyone’s business OpportuniRes to reduce GHG emissions for the fishing, aquaculture and seafood industries are, in general, not specific to the Industry is dependent on fossil fuels for transport in fishing vessels Transport: § Improving the sector. energy efficiency of vehicles § Switching to less carbon-­‐intensive fuels, e.g., biofuels § Moving to electric vehicles § Changing the mode of carriage, e.g., from air to sea § Reducing the overall number of journeys and in carrying produce to market. Policies aimed at reducing GHG emissions across the wider economy could be relevant to this industry.
  • 10. climate Climate Change: Mi0ga0on Poten0al (2/2) everyone’s business The fishing industry can consider ways to miRgate ecosystem impacts: Fish redistribu0on: § Undertake vulnerability assessments § Strengthen coastal zone management § Reduce aquaculture dependence on fishmeal Oxygen-­‐depleted ‘dead zones’: § Reassess and reinforce marine protected areas § Protect mangrove forests, sea grass beds and salt marshes Shellfish growth and produc0on: § Reduce non-­‐climate stressors, e.g., polluRon Coral reefs at risk: § Create new habitats such as ar0ficial reefs to act as fish nurseries in areas where coral destrucRon occurs
  • 11. climate Climate Change: Conclusion everyone’s business Fisheries and aquaculture are directly impacted by climate change effects on the physical, chemical and biological composiRon of oceans. These sectors are also becoming more vulnerable to non-­‐climate stressors such as polluRon and over-­‐fishing. A certain level of impact is inevitable. Improved policies, management and monitoring systems may help adapt to climate change. Unchecked impacts will accelerate from 2050, possibly for centuries. Measures that quanRfy ‘blue carbon’ and allow blue carbon credit trading on internaRonal carbon markets could fund preservaRon projects and help build the ocean’s resilience to climate change impacts. Blue carbon Carbon captured by the world’s oceans and coastal ecosystems. The carbon is stored in the form of biomass and sediments from mangroves, salt marches and segrasses.
  • 12. For more informa0on Cambridge InsRtute for Sustainability Leadership ipcc@cisl.cam.ac.uk Blake Lee-­‐Harwood, Sustainable Fisheries Partnership blake.lee-­‐harwood@sustainablefish.org European Climate FoundaRon AR5@europeanclimate.org www.cisl.cam.ac.uk/ipcc www.sustainablefish.org www.europeanclimate.org