1. CLIMATE CHANGEwww.epa.ie Research Programme

5. All-Island study Total quantified but unproven CO2 storage capacity of the Island of Ireland is 93000 Mt Total practical storage potential : 1,505 Mt CO2 hydrocarbon fields incl. Kinsale Head : 330 Mt East Irish Sea : 1050 Mt Total effective storage potential : 3.500 Mt Theoretical storage in Permo-Triassic aquifers, east coast and UK Irish Sea Unquantified potential in western basins (Spanish Point : 120 Mt) Ireland total emissions: 28.8Mt/year Moneypoint emissions : 5 Mt/year

9. CLIMATE CHANGEwww.epa.ie Research Programme

10. Phenology 2010; climate change impacts and adaptations Increasing temperature Trees’ response Advances in bud-burst and leafing dates Birds’ response Earlier arrival dates

11. Phenology What is phenology? Plant phenophases Leafing Flowering Leaf fall Bird phenophases Migration Egg-laying dates Why is phenology important in climate studies?

12. Leaf unfolding dates

13. Leaf unfolding dates

14. What the future holds for budburst in Betula pubescens Bridget O’Neill (TCD), Amelia Caffarra (Instituto Agrario, Trento, Italy), Emily Gleeson (Met Éireann)

15. Implications for whole ecosystem Oak tree Caterpillar Blue tit

16. Going forward…… National Phenology Networks NPN - IE NPN - SW Nature’s Calendar Regional Phenology Networks PEP 725 NPN - USA Global Phenology Network GEO

17. CLIMATE CHANGEwww.epa.ie Research Programme

18. A Climate for Change:opportunities for carbon-efficient farming Rogier Schulte, Reamonn Fealy, Mark Gibson, Gary Lanigan, Laurence Shalloo, Paul Crosson and Pat Murphy

21. Top-down carbon quota policies

22. Carbon leakage

23. Costs

24. Counting carbon ≠ cutting carbon

25. Opportunities:

26. Marketing low C-footprint food

27. Depends on actions from all relevant partners:

30. Solution to GHG  Food Security dilemma:Reduce C-footprint of produce, i.e. GHG emissions per kg product

31. Through increasing efficiency, instead of capping productivity

32. Already driven by food retail industry / consumer demand

34. Caps total emissions per nation

35. Change from capping towards efficiencies requires major shift in global thinking and international coordination

36. New initiatives:

37. Worldwide: Global Research Alliance

38. EU: Joint Programme Initiative

40. €2.5m per annum, 6 Research Centres

41. Co-funded by DAFF (Stimulus), EPA (STRIVE)

42. Details presented at last week’s conference

43. Brought together by Teagasc Working Group on GHG emissionsDenitrificationinhibitors N-efficiency Clover Genetic merit of animals Animal diet Forestation Min-till Farm energy use Energy crops

46. Developing coherent approach towards better GHG efficiencies

47. Fed into SEAI (McKinsey) report and government strategy

48. Identifying measures that are cost-effective“Cost-neutral” Buy-credits? “Double dividend” Source: Motherway & Walker, 2009www.seai.ie/Publications/Low_Carbon_Opportunity_Study

50. Accounting for progress in inventories (EPA)

51. International policy development (DAFF, DoEHLG)

52. Changes in farm practices (Farmers and farm industry)

53. Full connectivity in supply chain (Processing industry)

54. Standardisation of C-footprinting (Food retail industry)Requires coherent approach Teagasc – FDII Climate for Change Action Forum

55. CLIMATE CHANGEwww.epa.ie Research Programme

56. Climate Solutions and Global Financing Global mitigation and developing country adaptation Hugely varying estimates of need Private finance crucial Depends on a carbon price Certainty on targets Public finance necessary partic for adaptation and CB Domestic Offsetting, as with CDM, faces challenges in incentivising and measuring REAL mitigation – MRV However! C Price not enough esp where market failures Regulation has a place

57. Climate Impacts and Adaptation High resolution decadinal simulations possible Rainfall shifts observed. Extreme rainfall magnitude is increasing – implications for planning and investment Role of boundary organisations; mainstreaming adaptation across institutions Multi-disciplinary approach Scenario building and visualisation tools

58. Resource Use and Mitigation Energy modelling is a useful tool – increasingly sophisticated Identifies options Clear we are not on target! Transport: Behavioural change is difficult Public perception Fiscal measures Land resources: Carbon store (peat) vulnerable but has potential Work needed at international level to bring that into accounting Alternative fuel vehicles: not appearing in energy models