1. VOTER PARTICIPATION IN NEW ZEALAND
WHAT DO WE KNOW?
Prof Jack Vowles, Victoria University of Wellington
Wellington, New Zealand

2. Voter Participation in New Zealand:
What Do We Know?
Jack Vowles
Political Science and International Relations
Victoria University of Wellington
Presentation to the Valuing Our Vote Conference,
Wellington, May 29 2014

3. Where We’re At
y = -0.2545x + 584.02
R² = 0.7916
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
0 20 40 60 80 100
Switzerland (PR)
United States (PL)
Canada (PL)
Luxembourg(PR)
Japan (M)
United Kingdom (PL)
Ireland (PR)
Germany (PR)
Finland (PR)
Italy (M)
Austria (PR)
New Zealand (PR)
Netherlands (PR)
France (M)
Israel (PR)
Norway (PR)
Australia (M, C)
Iceland (PR)
Denmark (PR)
Sweden (PR)
Belgium (PR, C)
VAP turnout, ‘old’ OECD
VAP turnout, New Zealand

4. Age and Turnout 1996-2011
(% of roll)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011
18-30
30 plus

5. Age and Turnout 1996-2011
(% age-eligible)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011
18-29
30 up

6. What Else?
-0.12
-0.24
-0.08
0.12
0.05
-0.07
0.07
Maori Electorate**
Asian**
Manual Household*
Wealth Index Maximum-Minimum**
Urban Location
Reference: Non-degree qualification
Left School at 15
University Degree
Source: 2011 NZES

7. -8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Actual
Actual and Predicted Turnout Change

8. -8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Actual
Linear (Actual)
Actual and Predicted Turnout Change

9. Actual and Predicted Turnout Change
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Actual
Predict
Linear (Actual)
Changes in -
National-Labour country-wide vote gap present and past elections
Left-Right policy differences, National-Labour
% of new voters at current election

10. Is Lower Two-party Competition a
Trend?
R² = 0.0842
0
5
10
15
20
25
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
National-Labour Gap, 1946-2011

11. Age Cohort Differences
0.5
0.55
0.6
0.65
0.7
0.75
0.8
25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35
Probability of
Vote Began Voting <1996
Began Voting > 1996

12. Age Cohort Differences
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
<1955 1955-65 1966-72 1972-82 1983-92 1993-
Probability
of voting
compared
to cohorts
entering
voting
before 1955
Began Voting -

13. What About the Maori Electorates?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100 1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
Maori electorates
Official Turnout

14. Effects of Political Knowledge
Source: NZES
2011.
Controls for
social and
demographic
and other
variables
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Low Knowledge (0) High Knowledge (4)
Probability
of Vote

15. Attitudes/Perceptions
(2011 NZES)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Didn't Manage
to Vote
Chose not to
Vote
Those Not Voting,
2011 NZES
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Not Any Difference A Big Difference
Voting Makes a Difference to
What Happens
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
My Vote
Doesn't
Count
My Vote
Counts
Vote Counts in Elections

16. Effects of Attitudes/Perceptions on
Turnout (2011 NZES)
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
Not Any Difference A Big Difference
Probabilit
y of Vote
Voting Makes a Difference
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
My Vote Doesn't Count My Vote Counts
Probabilit
y of Vote
Vote Counts

17. What Do We Know
Internationally?
• Voting is a social act
• Being embedded in social networks
encourages/reinforces behaviour
• ‘Late Maturity’ may explain increased
youth nonvoting
• Mobilisation works, but needs resources.
• There is debate about whether ‘habit’ or
‘norms and values’ can be said to best
account for the generational differences

18. How can decline be reversed?
The temporary turnaround,
1975-1984
– revival of party
memberships
– mobilisation of a new
generation of voters, party
members, and leaders
– new issue dimensions
entered politics
– Highly competitive
elections
– Polarised politics and
divisive leadership

19. Voter Participation in New Zealand:
What Do We Know?
Jack Vowles
Political Science and International Relations
Victoria University of Wellington
Presentation to the Valuing Our Vote Conference,
Wellington, May 29 2014