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Project Management 3.2 cost

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Project Management 3.2 cost

  1. 1. @elodescharmes Project Management Elodie Descharmes Elodie.descharmes@gmail.com
  2. 2. @elodescharmes Cost management (Plan Cost Management) Estimate Costs Determine Budget Control Costs
  3. 3. @elodescharmes Don’t do it alone !!! Quand j'apprends que le commercial a réduit son chiffrage en conservant toutes les fonctionnalités http://lesjoiesducode.fr/
  4. 4. @elodescharmes ESTIMATE COSTS
  5. 5. @elodescharmes Type of estimates
  6. 6. @elodescharmes Estimate Costs • Analogous estimating (top-down estimating) – Take similar project as a basis – High-level estimate – Less accurate, less costly • Parametric estimating – Variable relationship with historical data – Only when the model is scalable • Bottom-up estimating – Good accuracy – Time consuming
  7. 7. @elodescharmes Estimate Costs Three-point estimates (triangular distribution) 0 : Optimist ML : Most Likely P : Pessimist Estimate = 𝑂 + 𝑀𝐿 + 𝑃 3 Three-point estimates (beta distribution) 0 : Optimist ML : Most Likely P : Pessimist Estimate = 𝑂 + 4 ∗ 𝑀𝐿 + 𝑃 6
  8. 8. @elodescharmes DETERMINE BUDGET
  9. 9. @elodescharmes Cost performance baseline $ time BAC = Budget At Completion Cost baseline Expected cash flow
  10. 10. @elodescharmes Reserves analysis • Contingency reserve – For planned risks (knows- unknowns) – Specified and argued in the contract – To be paid to the project – Decision : project manager • Management reserve – For issues/unplanned events (unknows-unknowns) – Specified in the contract – Money stays by the client side – Decision : project sponsor
  11. 11. @elodescharmes Reserves
  12. 12. @elodescharmes Contingency reserve estimating example using Expected Monetary Value (EMV) Risks Full impact cost Probability EMV Risk 1 30 k€ 33% 10 k€ Risk 2 100 k€ 35 % 35 k€ Risk 3 75 k€ 60 % 45 k€ Contingency reserve EMV = Full impact cost * probability
  13. 13. @elodescharmes Risks • Preventive actions costs included in costs • Curative action costs included in contingency reserve • Full impact costs in management reserve Risk Reserve Known unknown Contingency reserve Unknown unknown Management reserve
  14. 14. @elodescharmes • Cost of performance < Cost of non-performance • Cost of performance : included in BAC Quality Quand on déploie une fonctionnalité non testée en production http://lesjoiesducode.fr
  15. 15. @elodescharmes CONTROL COSTS
  16. 16. @elodescharmes Earned Value Management (EVM) Planned Value (PV) Portion of the authorized budget assigned to the work accomplished for an activity or a WBS component during a given period. As of today, how much work was planned to be done ? Actual Cost (AC) Total cost actually incurred and recorded in accomplishing work performed for an activity or a WBS component during a given period. As of today, how much does the work cost ? Earned Value (EV) Value or work performed for an activity or a WBS component during a given period. As of today, what is the value of the work performed ? Budget at completion (BAC) Sum of the total budget for an activity, a work package, a project. What was the total job supposed to cost ? Estimate at completion (EAC) Expected total cost of the activity, the work package, the project What do we expect the total job to cost ? Estimate to complete (ETC) Expected additional cost needed to complete the activity, the work package, the project. What additional cost is now expacted to complete the work ?
  17. 17. @elodescharmes Earned Value Management (EVM) Cost Variance CV = EV – AC Schedule Variance SV = EV – PV Cost Performance Index CPI = EV / AC Schedule Performance Index SPI = EV / PV
  18. 18. @elodescharmes Earned Value Management (EVM) • Forecasting – ETC : Estimate to complete • What still needs to be done to complete – EAC : Estimate at completion • New BAC estimation EAC forecast for ETC work performed at the budget rate EAC = AC + (BAC – EV) EAC forecast for ETC work performed at the present CPI EAC = BAC / CPI EAC forecast for ETC work performed considering both SPI and CPI factors EAC = AC + [( BAC – EV ) / CPI * SPI)]
  19. 19. @elodescharmes Example • WBS item : build a wall – Planned scope : 25 bricks – Planned time : 5 days – Planned cost : 500 € (m*d = 100 €) (1 brick = 20 €)
  20. 20. @elodescharmes Example • Today = end of day 3 – Actual scope : 13 bricks – Spent time : 3 days – Spent cost : 280 €
  21. 21. @elodescharmes FORMULA VALUE Planned Value (PV) Actual Cost (AC) Earned Value (EV) Budget at completion (BAC) Cost Variance (CV) CV = EV – AC Schedule Variance (SV) SV = EV – PV Cost Performance Index (CPI) CPI = EV / AC Schedule Performance Index (SPI) SPI = EV / PV Estimate at completion (EAC) Basic : EAC = AC + (BAC – EV) Considering CPI : EAC = BAC / CPI Considering CPI & SPI (on time) : EAC = AC + [( BAC – EV ) / (CPI * SPI)] Estimate to complete (ETC) Basic Considering CPI Considering CPI & SPI
  22. 22. @elodescharmes To-Complete Performance Index (TCPI) • TCPI is the measure of cost performance that must be achieved on the remaining work to meet BAC or EAC TCPI = Work remaining / Funds remaining TCPI based on BAC TCPI = (BAC – EV) / (BAC – AC) TCPI based on EAC TCPI = (BAC – EV) / (EAC – AC)
  23. 23. @elodescharmes Quiz
  24. 24. @elodescharmes Practice • Estimate Costs • Determine Budget

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