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WHERE TO FROM HERE
– OIL AND GAS IN WA
Francis Norman
2015 WA Division President
Overview
•  Recent history of projects in WA
•  Workforce changes and challenges
•  Future opportunities and challenges
• ...
Disclaimers
•  Much of the following is drawn from my own views
and beliefs, much of what I will discuss derives from
indi...
WA PROJECT HISTORY
Recent history
•  By late 2017 if everything goes to plan we will
have increased the WA LNG export capacity from
20mtpa to...
Breakeven costs keep escalating
Project costs
Project timeline
Committed LNG expenditure
Cost increases reducing
competiveness
Growth in costs
So, what is our reputation
•  Are we seen as a high skill, experienced, reliable,
stable workforce who delivers on time an...
WORKFORCE CHANGES AND
CHALLENGES
Demographic challenges
FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES
Changing profile of opportunities
•  WA has, for the majority of the past decade and for
the majority of engineers been th...
Potential upcoming projects
Major new projects
•  Hess Equus - Semi
•  Browse – 3? x FLNG
•  Scarborough - FLNG
Expansion ...
The Australian Oil & Gas Market – Key projects and prospects
Ichthys	
  
	
  Wheatstone	
  
Gorgon	
  
	
  Prelude	
  
Leg...
Canning Basin
Energy prices
Then there’s this
Global LNG demand projection
Potential future trends
•  Subsea processing
•  Operations and maintenance
•  Subsea – Design and fabrication
•  Remote op...
FLNG FUTURE REPORT
Our FLNG future
•  Report prepared over 2014,
released in mid December
•  Incorporated input from
•  Operators
•  Engineer...
Key findings
•  The engineering workforce in Western Australia has a
large number of skills directly relevant to support t...
Key findings
•  There is a real appetite for close and meaningful
collaboration among all parties: for operators to work t...
Recommendations
•  That all operators of FLNG in Australian waters,
regardless of the state or territory in which they may...
Recommendations
•  That a regular (annual) researcher and industry
conference be held to allow academia to showcase
resear...
Recommendations
•  That the Federal and WA State governments provide
grants, tax incentives and marketing support to stimu...
Sources
•  Macquarie private wealth – Australian LNG, strangling the golden goose, Dec 2012,
http://www.macquarie.com.au/d...
QUESTIONS
Where to From Here - Oil and Gas in WA
Where to From Here - Oil and Gas in WA
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Where to From Here - Oil and Gas in WA

Looking to the past to understand the future
To understand fully the future direction of the oil and gas sector here in WA, it is important to consider and recognise the recent history and current challenges being experienced. This history and current challenges formed the first section of the presentation highlighting the scale of expansion of the industry here over the past decade, where we have moved from around 20mtpa LNG to a anticipated output level of some 50mtpa in WA alone, which, when combined with the additional capacity being constructed in QLD and NT will make Australia the world’s largest exporter of LNG by the end of this decade.

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Where to From Here - Oil and Gas in WA

  1. 1. WHERE TO FROM HERE – OIL AND GAS IN WA Francis Norman 2015 WA Division President
  2. 2. Overview •  Recent history of projects in WA •  Workforce changes and challenges •  Future opportunities and challenges •  EA FLNG report •  Questions…
  3. 3. Disclaimers •  Much of the following is drawn from my own views and beliefs, much of what I will discuss derives from individual discussions, media commentary and publically available research material. •  As with many things, it is best to form your own opinion…
  4. 4. WA PROJECT HISTORY
  5. 5. Recent history •  By late 2017 if everything goes to plan we will have increased the WA LNG export capacity from 20mtpa to 50mtpa through the construction of Pluto, Wheatstone, Gorgon and Prelude. •  At the same time, additional capacity has been added in NT and Qld •  We should be the largest LNG export nation in the world •  How well did we do?
  6. 6. Breakeven costs keep escalating
  7. 7. Project costs
  8. 8. Project timeline
  9. 9. Committed LNG expenditure
  10. 10. Cost increases reducing competiveness
  11. 11. Growth in costs
  12. 12. So, what is our reputation •  Are we seen as a high skill, experienced, reliable, stable workforce who delivers on time and has realistic demands Or •  Are we seen as a moderate skill, demanding, unpredictably mobile workforce who’s projects are always late and over budget?
  13. 13. WORKFORCE CHANGES AND CHALLENGES
  14. 14. Demographic challenges
  15. 15. FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES
  16. 16. Changing profile of opportunities •  WA has, for the majority of the past decade and for the majority of engineers been the province of greenfield developments, characterised by massive local and international spend. •  Much of this is now over, and may not repeat for several years as the current new assets come on stream and are optimised. •  Our next few years are likely to be characterised by small brownfield developments and expansions. •  Are we ready?
  17. 17. Potential upcoming projects Major new projects •  Hess Equus - Semi •  Browse – 3? x FLNG •  Scarborough - FLNG Expansion projects •  Backfill to DLNG •  Ichthys Phase II •  Gorgon Phase II
  18. 18. The Australian Oil & Gas Market – Key projects and prospects Ichthys    Wheatstone   Gorgon    Prelude   Legend   Pre  execu5on   In  Execu5on   Phase    Equus   Laverda   Crown   Crux   Poseidon      Gorgon  Expansion   Palta   Wheatstone   Expansion      Zola  &  Olympus    Scarborough    Pluto  expansion   Sunrise   Heron   Evans  Shoal   Caldita  Barossa   Browse   Cooper  Basin   Region   Bass  Strait   Canning  Basin   Surat  &  Bowen   Basins   Bonaparte   Cash  Maple  
  19. 19. Canning Basin
  20. 20. Energy prices
  21. 21. Then there’s this
  22. 22. Global LNG demand projection
  23. 23. Potential future trends •  Subsea processing •  Operations and maintenance •  Subsea – Design and fabrication •  Remote operations •  Big data
  24. 24. FLNG FUTURE REPORT
  25. 25. Our FLNG future •  Report prepared over 2014, released in mid December •  Incorporated input from •  Operators •  Engineering houses •  Industry bodies •  Universities & tertiary education •  Research groups •  Report was initiated to get a better understanding of ‘life after FLNG’ and the opportunities and challenges associated with its arrival.
  26. 26. Key findings •  The engineering workforce in Western Australia has a large number of skills directly relevant to support the installation, commissioning, operations, maintenance, ongoing development and eventual decommissioning of FLNG facilities. These skills are spread across industry and academia. •  There is a strong desire among all parties for the local engineering workforce to be as heavily engaged in FLNG as possible.
  27. 27. Key findings •  There is a real appetite for close and meaningful collaboration among all parties: for operators to work together across project boundaries to rationalise and optimise the sharing of information; for engineering companies to collaborate in supporting the operations of the facilities; and for academia to collaborate on impactful research. •  With Western Australia being the first location for the deployment at scale of FLNG, the state has the opportunity to establish itself as a centre of knowledge and excellence in the operations and maintenance of the technology. If properly managed, these skills could then be marketed to organisations deploying FLNG into other regions of the world.
  28. 28. Recommendations •  That all operators of FLNG in Australian waters, regardless of the state or territory in which they may be based (WA and NT), collaborate as openly as possible in the sharing of knowledge, facilities and experience. •  That the industry as a whole works to identify deficiencies and opportunities in the current skills pool and to find ways to fill those gaps through development of local personnel, through focused education and where necessary through targeted importation of skills.
  29. 29. Recommendations •  That a regular (annual) researcher and industry conference be held to allow academia to showcase research to industry and industry to advise researchers of their current needs. That the conference be mindful of competition such as from Singapore, Norway and Scotland but be open to organisations wishing to attend. •  That Industry, in the form of both operators and engineering companies contribute both financially and in kind (for example through the provision of time for personnel) to support the coordination efforts of Engineers Australia.
  30. 30. Recommendations •  That the Federal and WA State governments provide grants, tax incentives and marketing support to stimulate the involvement and growth of the Western Australian engineering sector in FLNG. •  That methods are found to include all Western Australian universities in the research work being undertaken around FLNG. This could be by specific activities that leverage the skills of each university or by groups such as WA:ERA (or the new Floating Systems Centre) expanding to potentially include CDU, Murdoch and ECU.
  31. 31. Sources •  Macquarie private wealth – Australian LNG, strangling the golden goose, Dec 2012, http://www.macquarie.com.au/dafiles/Internet/mgl/au/apps/retail-newsletter/docs/ 2012_12/AustralianLNGOutlook071212e.pdf •  Ernst & Young, Global LNG trends, May 2013, http://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/Baku-event-LNG/$FILE/Baku-event-LNG.pdf •  Hays Recruitment, Oil & Gas Global Salary Survey 2015
  32. 32. QUESTIONS

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