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Ride the Storm: Navigating Through Unstable Periods / Katerina Rudko (Belka G...
Special report by epic research 21 april 2014
1. DAILY REPORT
21st
APRIL 2014
YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
Global markets at a glance
European equities finished higher on Thursday after losing
ground earlier in the session, with upbeat results from ma-
jor U.S. companies like Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs
and General Electric improving sentiment. Morgan Stanley
reported a 55 percent jump in first-quarter earnings. En-
couraging U.S. results helped cyclical sectors to gather
pace, with the STOXX Europe Automobile and Auto Parts
index rising 2.1% to become the top performing sector.
Nikkei share average advanced on Friday after upbeat US
economic data and corporate earnings bolstered. The Nik-
kei was up 0.4% at 14,474.83 in midmorning trade after
ending flat at 14,417.53 the previous day.
Wall Street Update
Stocks ended a holiday-shortened week with mostly mod-
est gains on Thursday, though the S&P 500 notched its big-
gest weekly advance since July as Morgan Stanley and
General Electric rallied after strong results. The Dow Jones
industrial average .DJI slipped 16.31 points, or 0.10 per-
cent, to end at 16,408.54. The Standard & Poor's 500 In-
dex .SPX rose 2.54 points, or 0.14 percent, to finish at
1,864.85. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC gained 9.29
points, or 0.23 percent, to close at 4,095.52.
Previous day Roundup
After three-day of losses, the market showed spectacular
rebound on Thursday with the benchmark indices rising
more than 1.5 percent on broadbased buying. It was also a
polling day, when the fifth phase of general elections for
121 Lok Sabha seats (maximum number of seats in a single
phase) across 12 states (including all of Karnataka, Ma-
harashtra and Rajasthan states) was held on Thursday.
Tracking the momentum, the 50-share Nifty index also
managed to regain its crucial psychological level of 6700,
supported by gains in IT, autos, metal, realty and banking
stocks. The BSE Sensex closed the day at 22,628.84; up
351.61, or 1.58%. The 50-share Nifty index ended th day at
6,779.40; up 104.10 points, or 1.56%.
Index stats
The Market was very volatile in Monday s session. The sar-
torial indices performed as follow Consumer Durables [up
52.42pts], Capital Goods [up 188.47pts], PSU [up
100.46pts], FMCG [up 89.46pts], Realty [up 40.59pts],
Power [up 31.50pts], Auto [up 297.32pts], Healthcare [up
73.94pts], IT [down pts], Metals [up pts], TECK [up
49.36pts], Oil& Gas [down pts].
World Indices
Index Value % Change
D J l 16,408.54 -0.10
S&P 500 1,864.85 +0.14
NASDAQ 4,095.52 +.23
EURO STO 3,155.81 +0.53
FTSE 100 6,625.25 +0.62
Nikkei 225 14,516.27 +0.88
Hong Kong 22,760.24 +0.28
Top Gainers
Company CMP Change % Chg
TATAMOTORS 430.20 19.05 +4.63
HINDALCO 141.50 6.05 +4.47
JINDALSTEL 280.40 11.00 +4.08
AMBUJACEM 216.00 8.25 +3.97
ICICBANK 1264.05 41.50 +3.39
BPCL 449.75 13.40 +3.07
BHEL 180.90 5.35 +3.05
Top Losers
Company CMP Change % Chg
HDFCBANK 718.00 -1.10
POWERGRID 106.80 -0.84
MCDOWELL-N 2,852.00 -0.69
Stocks at 52 Week’s high
Symbol Prev. Close Change %Chg
APOLLOTYRE 173.40 12.45 +7.74
ARVIND 192.10 11.35 +6.28
CAIRN 368.45 6.55 +1.81
GLOBOFFS 342.65 0.05 -0.01
JKTYRE 206.20 25.20 +14.05
Indian Indices
Company CMP Change % Chg
NIFTY 6779.40 +104.10 +1.56
SENSEX 22,628.84 +351.61 +1.58
Stocks at 52 Week’s Low
Symbol Prev. Close Change %Chg
2. DAILY REPORT
21st
APRIL 2014
YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS [FUTURE]
1. ARVIND [FUTURE]
ARVIND FUTURE is looking strong on charts, long build up
has been seen, we may see more upside, if it sustains above
190 levels. We advise buying around 190-191 levels with
strict stop loss 188 for the targets of 193-195 levels.
2. TATA MOTORS [FUTURE]
TATA MOTORS FUTURE is looking strong on charts, long
build up has been seen, we may see more upside, if it sus-
tains 425 levels. We advise buying around 425-428 levels
with strict stop loss 415 for the targets of 435-440 levels.
EQUITY CASH & FUTURE
STOCK RECOMMENDATION [CASH]
1. SASKEN COMMUNICATION
SASKEN COMMUNICATION is looking strong on charts. We
advise buying around 210-215 levels with strict stop loss of
200 for the targets of 225-235 levels.
MACRO NEWS
HCLTech beats street forecast by reporting Q3 (Jan.-Mar.)
net profit at Rs 1,624cr, up 8.5% sequentially and 59% YoY
due to better operating performance. Net profit margin
expanded to 19.4% from 18.3% QoQ. The forex loss dur-
ing the quarter was at USD 23.3 mn vs. USD 25.5 mn QoQ.
Tea industry facing sustainability challenges.
According to the global financial services major, inflation
may remain sticky, with a possible El Nino effect on the
monsoon likely to push up food prices.
Data from stock exchanges show FIIs increased their hold-
ings in several mid-cap companies such as Dhanlaxmi
Bank, Page Industries, Jagran Prakashan, McDowell Hold-
ings, Nesco and Financial Technologies, in the March
quarter.
HDFC Bank stock has come under pressure on fears of a
possible sell-off by foreign funds due to restructuring by
MSCI. The global index provider is set to cut the bank’s
weightage in its MSCI India index from the current 5.5% to
2%. The move could lead to selling by passive foreign
funds. The new weightage will be effective from June.
India’s foreign exchange reserves have increased by $2.8
billion to $309.5 billion.
3. DAILY REPORT
21st
APRIL 2014
YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
FUTURE & OPTION
MOST ACTIVE PUT OPTION
Symbol Op-
tion
Type
Strike
Price
LTP Traded
Volume
(Contracts
)
Open
Interest
NIFTY PE 6,700 10.75 6,31,044 69,53,700
NIFTY PE 6,800 36 3,70,287 43,14,700
NIFTY PE 6,600 3.3 3,23,680 59,26,800
BANKNIFTY PE 12,500 32.55 60,733 3,86,150
TCS PE 2,200 21 10,977 2,80,250
SBIN PE 1,950 5.75 3,286 1,34,625
ICICBANK PE 1,250 10.9 3,226 3,40,250
INFY PE 3,100 5.25 2,823 1,76,625
MOST ACTIVE CALL OPTION
Symbol Option
Type
Strike
Price
LTP Traded
Volume
(Contracts)
Open
Interest
NIFTY CE 6,800 37.5 7,19,227 48,50,100
NIFTY CE 6,700 108.5 3,84,121 35,64,050
NIFTY CE 6,900 7.7 3,09,559 41,25,550
BANKNIFTY CE 13,000 65 73,893 4,79,325
TCS CE 2,250 15.25 13,272 2,50,500
SBIN CE 2,000 40.4 9,336 3,24,750
INFY CE 3,200 25.1 6,718 2,10,875
RELIANCE CE 960 16.1 3,952 5,70,750
FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS
BUY OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAYSELL
No. of
Contracts
Amount in
Crores
No. of
Contracts
Amount in
Crores
No. of
Contracts
Amount in
Crores
NET AMOUNT
INDEX FUTURES 103011 3465.44 81728 2749.00 401545 13591.19 716.44
INDEX OPTIONS 468268 15544.17 453890 15058.90 1573063 53194.43 485.27
STOCK FUTURES 241539 8589.05 247743 8893.27 1123772 39693.02 -304.22
STOCK OPTIONS 80801 2845.21 81287 2854.53 66766 2357.04 -9.32
TOTAL 888.17
INDICES R2 R1 PIVOT S1 S2
NIFTY 6650.29 6714.85 6748.95 6813.5 6847.6
NIFTYJUNIOR 13460.33 13559.11 13611.63 13710.41 13762.93
BANK NIFTY 12402.75 12595.0 12707.05 12899.3 13011.35
STOCKS IN NEWS
Hindzinc and LIC Housing Finance will declare results
tomorrow.
Hindustan Construction Company bags Rs 300 cr. Delhi
Metro Rail Corporation Ltd contract.
Coal India to recruit 3,000 mining staff.
Bajaj Auto union demands 'insane' and ‘preposterous’.
Tata Steel said its shareholders will meet on May 16 to
discuss merger of Tata Metaliks with the company.
Bharti Airtel continues to face exodus of top execu-
tives.
NIFTY FUTURE
Nifty Future closed in the green in the last trading ses-
sion. We advise buying around 6750-6780 levels with
strict stop loss of 6720 for the targets of 6830-6860.
4. DAILY REPORT
21st
APRIL 2014
YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
RECOMMENDATIONS
SILVER
TRADING STRATEGY:
BUY SILVER(MAY) ABOVE 42700 TGTS 42950/43300 SL
42400
SELL SILVER(MAY) BELOW 42100 TGTS 41850/41500 SL
42400
GOLD
TRADING STRATEGY:
BUY GOLD(MAY) ABOVE 28650 TGTS 28730/28830 SL 28550
SELL GOLD(MAY) BELOW 28400 TGTS 28320/28220 SL
28500
COMMODITY ROUNDUP
Unofficial inflow’ of gold into India was estimated at 178.7
tonnes in 2013, about 75 per cent higher compared to the
104 tonnes in 2012, according to a GFMS Thomson Reuters
survey. This follows the several restrictions of official im-
port, such as a 10.3 per cent tariff and a legal compulsion to
export 20 per cent of any imported gold. GFMS estimated
the total gross gold import in 2013 at 961.7 tonnes, a tenth
lower than the previous year. The govt’s curbs were after a
rise in gold import to $56 billion in 2012-13; this was held to
be putting undue pressure on the current account deficit.
MCX Crude oil futures came off their highs following a slight
moderation in global prices. The commodity had stayed
supported earlier in the session as concerns over clashes
between pro-Russia militants and Ukrainian forces contin-
ued to feed worries over global oil supplies. However, intra-
day moves have seen crude struggle to hold onto the rallies.
WTI Crude futures are off their two-year highs and currently
quote at $103.80, almost unchanged on the day. MCX
Crude oil futures are trading at Rs 6262 per barrel; up Rs 12
per barrel on the day after hitting highs above Rs 6300 ear-
lier in the session.
The quick recovery in the COMEX Copper seen on Wednes-
day and which is continuing on Thursday is due to the prices
slowing down to the levels of production cost. The metal is
produced at $ 2.8 to $ 3 per pound in various mines across
the globe. In brief moment last session the prices of COMEX
Copper moved below $3 before recover. When last checked
the prices of COMEX Copper were trading at $3.039 per
pound, up 1cent. Indian Copper was seen trading at Rs
405.6 per kg, unchanged from last evening. The prices have
tested a high of Rs 406.2 per kg, and low of Rs 403.8 per kg.
Oil prices rose in Asian trade on Thursday on lingering con-
cerns over the Ukraine crisis, but analysts said a bearish US
stockpiles report was dampening sentiment. New York's
main contract, West Texas Intermediate for May delivery,
was up 33 cents at $104.09 in mid-morning trade and Brent
North Sea crude for June gained seven cents to $109.67.
Events in Eastern Europe continued to support oil prices
ahead of Geneva talks between Ukraine, Russia, the Euro-
pean Union and Washington.
COMMODITY MCX
5. DAILY REPORT
21st
APRIL 2014
YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
RECOMMENDATIONS
DHANIYA
BUY DHANIYA MAY ABOVE 9620 TGTS 9650,9700 SL 9570
SELL DHANIYA MAY BELOW 9565 TGTS 9535,9485 SL 9605
GUARSEED
BUY GUARSEED MAY ABOVE 4880 TGTS 4910,4960 SL 4830
SELL GUARSEED MAY BELOW 4800 TGTS 4770,4720 SL 4850
NCDEX
NCDEX INDICES
Index Value % Change
Castor Seed 3959 -1.00
Chana 3100 -0.39
Coriander 9599 +0.29
Cotton Seed Oilcake 1491 +0.40
Jeera 4835 -0.62
Maize– Feed/Industrial
Grade
9910 -0.30
Mustard seed 3478 -0.06
Soy Bean 4475 -0.09
Turmeric 6482 -1.82
NCDEX ROUNDUP
Mills produced 23.15 million tonnes of sugar between Oct. 1
and April 15, down 4 percent from a year earlier, a produc-
ers' body said. Mills had produced 1.54 million tonnes raw
sugar by the end of March and of that 850,000 tonnes was
exported, the Indian Sugar Mills Association ( ISMA) said in
a statement on Thursday. In March alone, mills shipped
350,000 tonnes of raw sugar and they are likely to benefit
from the incentives announced by the government for the
dispatches.
In the past five weeks, jaggery prices have risen 11 per cent
on concerns about low production due to unseasonal rain
and hailstorms in major sugar-producing regions, including
Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu. Traded at
about half the price of sugar a few years ago, jaggery has
almost bridged the price gap and is currently being quoted
at Rs 1,170/40 kg, or Rs 29.25/kg (chaku variety) in the
benchmark wholesale Muzaffarnagar market.
The NCDEX Guarseed May futures declined by 0.62% today
to close at Rs 4835 per quintal. The futures added 5% today
in open interest indicating fresh short position by traders.
Maize Settles In Red On Higher Supplies In Local Mandies.
6. DAILY REPORT
21st
APRIL 2014
YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
JPY/INR
SELL JPY-INR BELOW 59.07 TGTS 58.94, 58.79 SL 59.32.
BUY JPY-INR ABOVE 59.51 TGTS 59.64, 59.79 SL 59.26.
GBP/INR
SELL GBP-INR BELOW 101.44 TGTS 101.30,101.15 SL 101.69.
BUY GBP-INR ABOVE 101.90 TGTS 102.04, 102.19 SL 101.65.
CURRENCY ROUNDUP
The Indian rupee recovered in late trade on Thursday,
boosted by gains in the domestic share market while some
dealers also cited dollar selling by large state-run banks
which could be on behalf of the central bank. The unit, how-
ever, dropped on the week, posting its third straight weekly
fall, as investors pared positions amid the ongoing national
elections. Foreign funds sold Indian shares worth 446.9 mil-
lion rupees ($7.4 mn) on Wednesday, provisional exchange
data showed, marking the third consecutive session of out-
flows. The partially convertible rupee closed at 60.29/30 per
dollar compared with 60.37/38 on Wednesday. On the
week, the rupee fell 0.2 percent, in its third straight weekly
drop. Earlier in the day, the rupee fell to a session low of
60.50 as importers, particularly oil firms rushed to buy dol-
lars in a holiday-shortened week.
Most emerging Asian currencies too edged up on Thursday
as the dollar eased broadly after U.S. Federal Reserve Chair
Janet Yellen's dovish comments on monetary policy, while
trading was subdued ahead of a holiday in some markets. In
the offshore non-deliverable forwards, the one-month con-
tract was at 60.76 while the three-month was at 61.53.
The dollar was lower against the other main currencies on
Thursday after dovish sounding comments from Federal
Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, while sterling rose to four-and-a-
half year highs amid growing expectations for a U.K. rate
hike in the early part of next year. USD/JPY was last trading
at 102.05, down from Wednesday's highs of 102.35. The
dollar softened after Fed Chair Janet Yellen said Wednesday
that monetary policy will need to remain accommodative
for some time, citing slackness in the labor market and low
inflation. The euro rose to four-day highs against the dollar,
with EUR/USD climbing 0.34% to 1.3863.
Sterling was trading at four-and-a-half year highs against
the dollar, with GBP/USD up 0.22% to 1.6832, the highest
level since Nov. 2009. The pound strengthened against the
other major currencies after data on Wednesday showed
that the U.K. unemployment rate fell to a 5 year low of 6.9%
in the three months to February.
CURRENCY
RBI Reference Rate
Currency Rate Currency Rate
Rupee- $ 60.3805 Yen-100 59.2000
Euro 83.5737 GBP 101.6325
7. DAILY REPORT
21st
APRIL 2014
YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
CALL REPORT
PERFORMANCE UPDATES
Date
Commodity/ Currency
Pairs
Contract Strategy Entry Level Target Stop Loss Remark
17/04/14 MCX GOLD JUNE BUY 28660 28740-28840 28540 NOT EXECUTED
17/04/14 MCX GOLD JUNE SELL 28430 28350-28250 28550 NOT EXECUTED
17/04/14 MCX SILVER MAY BUY 42440 42640-42940 42140 BOOKED PROFIT
17/04/14 MCX SILVER MAY SELL 42000 41800-41500 42350 NOT EXECUTED
17/04/14 NCDEX GUARSEED MAY BUY 4895 4925-4975 4845 NOT EXECUTED
17/04/14 NCDEX GUARSEED MAY SELL 4840 4810-4760 4890 BOOKED PROFIT
17/04/14 NCDEX DHANIYA APR. BUY 9615 9645-9695 9565 BOOKED PROFIT
17/04/14 NCDEX DHANIYA APR. SELL 9540 9510-9460 9590 SL TRIGGERED
17/04/14 EUR/INR APR. BUY 83.74 83.88-84.03 83.59 NO PROFIT NO LOSS
17/04/14 EUR/INR APR. SELL 83.44 83.30-83.15 83.69 NOT EXECUTED
17/04/14 USD/INR MAR. BUY 60.60 60.73-60.88 60.35 NOT EXECUTED
17/04/14 USD/INR MAR. SELL 60.17 60.04-59.89 60.42 NOT EXECUTED
Date Scrip
CASH/
FUTURE/
OPTION
Strategy Entry Level Target Stop Loss Remark
17/04/14 NIFTY FUTURE SELL 6750 6700-6650 6800 SL TRIGGERED
17/04/14 HDIL FUTURE SELL 71-72 69-67 74 SL TRIGGERED
17/04/14 HEXAWARE CASH SELL 160 155-150 165 NOT EXECUTED
17/04/14 PANACEA BIOTECH FUTURE BUY 160 170-180 150 SL TRIGGERED
16/04/14 TCS FUTURE BUY
2200-
2240
2280-2300 2160 CALL OPEN
15/04/14 INDUSIND BANK FUTURE SELL 500-495 480-460 520 CALL OPEN
8. DAILY REPORT
21st
APRIL 2014
YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
NEXT WEEK'S U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
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TIME (ET) REPORT PERIOD ACTUAL CONSENSUS FORECAST PREVIOUS
MONDAY, APRIL 21
10 AM LEADING INDICATORS MARCH -- 0.5%
TUESDAY, APRIL 22
9 AM FHFA HOME PRICE INDEX FEB.
10 AM EXISTING HOME SALES MARCH 4.54 MLN 4.60 MLN
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 23
9 AM MARKET "FLASH" PMI APRIL -- 55.5
10 AM NEW HOME SALES MARCH 455,000 440,000
THURSDAY, APRIL 24
8:30 AM JOBLESS CLAIMS 4/245 N/A 304,000
8:30 AM DURABLE GOODS ORDERS MARCH 1.9% 2.2%
FRIDAY ,APRIL 25
9:55 AM UMICH CONSUMER SENTIMENT APRIL 82.6 82.6