By Steve Bainbridge, Cedefop. This was presented during the mid-term conference on future skills and competences in the pulp and paper industry, jointly organised by the European Paper Sector Social Partners, industriAll Europe and Confederation of European Paper Industries, in Vienna 22 February 2016. More at (link tbc). d

1. Future skills and
competences in the pulp and
paper industry
Steve Bainbridge, Cedefop
Vienna, 22 February 2016

2. Past and forecast employment, EU (millions)
Source: Cedefop skills forecasts (2015)

3. Labour saving technology?

4. Shares of broad occupation groups in manufacturing and
sector of wood, paper, print and publishing
Source: Cedefop skills forecasts (2015)
24%
31% 29%
35%
10%
11%
9%
11%
56%
51%
51%
46%
10% 7% 10% 8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Wood, paper, print,
publishing (2.6 mil)
Whole manufacturing (32
mil)
Wood, paper, print,
publishing (2.4 mil)
Whole manufacturing (30.7
mil)
2015 2025
Elementary occupations
Skilled manual occupations
Skilled non-manual occupations
High skilled occupations

5. Changes in working-age population and labour
force by age, 2013-25 EU (%)
Source: Cedefop skills forecasts (2015)

6. Total job opportunities 2015-25, EU (thousands)
Source: Cedefop skills forecasts (2015)
-400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200
All qualifications
Low qualification
Medium qualification
High qualification
Total Requirement Replacement Demand Net Change
Wood, paper, print, publishing
-4,000 0 4,000 8,000 12,000
All qualifications
Low qualification
Medium qualification
High qualification
Total Requirement Replacement Demand Net Change
All manufacturing

7. Labour force trends by qualifications 2005-25, EU (%)
Source: Cedefop skills forecasts (2015)

8. Skill mismatch – what is it?
OverqualificationLacking the right skills

9. Skill mismatch
Employers unable to find the right talent, despite
offering competitive wages, face skill shortages. Skill
gaps arise where the skills required are unavailable in
the workforce, for example, due to technological
advance. Over or underqualification is where
individuals take jobs that do not match their
qualifications. People are over or underskilled where,
whatever their qualification level, their skills do not
match their job

10. Share of adult workers with skill deficits, EU (%)
Source: Cedefop European skills and jobs survey (2015)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%

11. Changing job tasks and skill development (EU)
Source: Cedefop European skills and jobs survey (2015)
Adult employees
whose tasks have
become significantly
more varied since
they started their
job
Adult employees
whose skills have not
developed since they
started their job

12. Many jobs still have low skill needs (EU)
Source: Cedefop European skills and jobs survey (2015)
Adult employees
needing only basic
literacy to do their
job
Adult employees
needing only basic or
no ICT skills to do
their job

13. Adult employees whose education or training
involves some work-based learning (EU)
Source: Cedefop European skills and jobs survey (2015)
Adult employees
completing
education and
training involving
some work-based
learning
Adult employees in
professional, scientific
or technical services
completed studies
with no work-based
learning

14. Principles for skill anticipation systems
• High quality complementary data on different labour
market developments;
• Capacity to analyse data to interpret developments
and their implications;
• Organisations or committees to structure
cooperation between interested parties;
• Mechanisms to transfer agreed findings concerning
future skill needs into VET curricular.

15. New data and results ONLINE
Look for
at cedefop.europa.eu

16. Six key points
• Technology good at routine; but people make businesses competitive.
• Skills in demand will be behavioural skills to deal with non-routine
tasks.
• Demand for high-skills, but also medium-level skills to replace people
leaving the labour market.
• Skill mismatch affects employees not just unemployed people.
• To reduce skill mismatch raising qualification levels is not enough.
Skills must also be used and developed through work-based learning,
continuing training and good jobs.
• Skill anticipation systems (Why, how much, which methods, for
whom?)

17. And last but not least…
None of this can happen
without the social partners

18. Thank you for your attention
More information:
www.cedefop.europa.eu
or
skills-analysis@cedefop.europa.eu
Access the forecast data and results online
at www.cedefop.europa.eu!