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Viewoint State of the Iranian Airline Sector

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Viewoint State of the Iranian Airline Sector

  1. 1. 0© 2014 1BlueHorizon Group - www.1bluehorizon.com All rights reserved1BHG | VIEWPOINT IRANIAN AIRLINES SECTOR 13.11.2014 FINALIZEDP R O P R I E TA R Y I N F O R M AT I O N BLUEPAPER | THE WAY WE SEE IT STATE OF IRANIAN AIRLINE SECTOR ‘ONCE’… A WHOLE NEEDS OF 400 AIRLINERS FOR THE NEXT DECADE… November 2014 Updated We generate 1B l u e Horizon ® out of the Rough... www.1bluehorizon.com        FINALIZEDP R O P R I E TA R Y I N F O R M AT I O N
  2. 2. 1© 2014 1BlueHorizon Group - www.1bluehorizon.com All rights reserved1BHG | VIEWPOINT IRANIAN AIRLINES SECTOR 13.11.2014 FINALIZEDP R O P R I E TA R Y I N F O R M AT I O N O Iranian Airline Sector has been battling sanctions since the 1990s, when the U.S. stopped Tehran from buying civil aircraft, spare parts and post-sale services, supposedly to stop the Islamic Republic from procuring militarily technology… O The embargo on aircraft and parts exports to Iran has left the Iranian airlines saddled with not only some of the oldest fleets in the Middle East, but in the world - a contributing factor to the dreadful safety record of the country's aviation system over the past 20 years… O While Iran has attempted to kick start its own commercial aviation manufacturing industry and has also sourced aircraft from Russia and Ukraine, its efforts to acquire Western-made aircraft and replacement parts have largely been frustrated, thanks to the effects of sanctions imposed by many countries… It is notorious that the country will need at least 40 new aircraft p/a… O The age of the aircraft and lack of spare parts has resulted in the grounding of large portions of the country’s commercial fleet. The country’s four largest carriers – Iran Air, Iran Aseman Airlines, Mahan Air and Meraj Airlines – all have average fleet ages above 22 years... O Iran’s fifth 5-year National Development Plan (2010-2015) urges the government to reduce the average age of its aircraft to 15 years by 2015… O The Civil Aviation Organization of Iran and Iranian airlines are increasingly optimistic that the sanctions related to the civil aviation will be lifted very soon to support required safety improvement requiring 400 new aircraft for the next decade with an overall value around USD 18 billion - At 1BlueHorizon Group® we believe that it is time to consider carefully Iran… FOREWORD Cover picture: In the 1970s, Iran's airlines were the pride of the region. The national carrier Iran Air, boasted a fleet of the latest Boeings and was pursuing the purchase of Concorde jets…
  3. 3. 2© 2014 1BlueHorizon Group - www.1bluehorizon.com All rights reserved1BHG | VIEWPOINT IRANIAN AIRLINES SECTOR 13.11.2014 FINALIZEDP R O P R I E TA R Y I N F O R M AT I O N Iran is a regional powerhouse, being strategically located between the Arab World and the Turk countries as well as Afghanistan and Pakistan in the East Key Facts  Official Name: Islamic Republic of Iran  Capital city: Tehran  Population: 81.8mn (2015), 17th largest country  Average household size: 5.2 pax/ household (2014)  Official language: Persian  Official currency: Iranian Rial Government  Form of Government: Islamic Republic, unitary state  Established in 1979 by the Islamic Revolution  Head of State: Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei  Head of government: Hassan Rouhani Geography  1.65 mn km2, 18th largest country, roughly five times larger than Germany  Neighboring countries: Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Iraq, Pakistan, Turkey, Turkmenistan  Sea cost: Persian Gulf, Caspian Sea and Gulf of Oman  Divided into 31 provinces Key Facts Map Source: CIA world factbook, aneki.com, BUDDEOMM (2010)
  4. 4. 3© 2014 1BlueHorizon Group - www.1bluehorizon.com All rights reserved1BHG | VIEWPOINT IRANIAN AIRLINES SECTOR 13.11.2014 FINALIZEDP R O P R I E TA R Y I N F O R M AT I O N Not only has Iran a particular large population, being the 17th largest country in the world, its population is also particularly young with a median age of 28.8 years Key Facts Population Density Population in Numbers  81,800,000 (2015) - 17th largest country  Population consists of – 61% Persians - 16% Azeri – 10% Kurds & the rest being Arabs, Turkmen and others  Median age: 28.8 (70% under the age of 35)  Population growth rate: 1.25% (2015e)  Population density: 44.9inhabitants/ km2  Literacy: 77%1  Academic quote: 8.3% of women and 11.3% (2006)2/ Germany: 17% (2000) Urbanization  Urbanization: 73.4% of total population (2015)  Urbanization rate: +2.07% annual change Big cities 1. Tehran (8.4 mn) 2. Mashhad (3.0 mn) 3. Esfahan (1.8 mn) 4. Karaj (1.8 mn) 5. Tabriz (1.6 mn) 6.Shiraz (1.6 mn) 7. Ahvaz (1.0 mn) 8. Qom (1.0 mn) 9. Kermanshah (0.8 mn) 10. Orumieh (0.6 mn) Source: CIA World Factbook (2015), Encyclopedia Britannica (2002), BUDDECOMM (2013), Statistical Center of Iran, IAB Institute for Employment Research 1) Definition according to CIA World Factbook: Age 15 and over can read and write 2) Definition: Share of female/ male 20+year population with tertiary degree.
  5. 5. 4© 2014 1BlueHorizon Group - www.1bluehorizon.com All rights reserved1BHG | VIEWPOINT IRANIAN AIRLINES SECTOR 13.11.2014 FINALIZEDP R O P R I E TA R Y I N F O R M AT I O N The economy is dominated by its hydrocarbon sector. The economic sanctions, however, isolate the country & severely hinder it from participating in the global economy Key Facts GDP Growth ■ Iran is the second largest economy in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region after Saudi Arabia, with an estimated Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2014 of US$406.3 billion. ■ It also has the second largest population of the region after Egypt, with an estimated 78.5 million people in 2014. ■ Characterized by a large hydrocarbon sectors, small scale private agriculture& services and a noticeable state presence in manufacturing & finance ■ GDP per capita (PPP): 16,165 US$ (IMF 2014) ■ Real GDP should rise to 5.8 % and 6.7 % in 2016 and 2017 ■ GDP composition by sector (2014 est.): Agriculture (9.1%), industry (40.7%) and services (50.3%) ■ Export goods: Petroleum (80 %), chemical and petrochemical products, automobiles, fruits and nuts, carpets ■ Export partners: China (26.8%), Turkey (11%), India (10.6%), Japan (7.3 %), South Korea (5.9 %) ■ Unemployment rate: 11.4% (2014), up from 10.4% in 2013 ■ The inflation rate declined from a year-on-year peak of 45.1% in 2012 to 15.6% in June 2015 in line with the lifting of sanctions and the tightening of monetary policy by the Central Bank of Iran. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 24 20 16 12 8 4 0 22.5% -0.3% 12.5% 1.0% 10.8% 0.1% 25.4% 1.0% 18.4% 7.8% 11.9% 5.8% 10.4% 4.7% -1.1% 21.0% Inflation (%)GDP Growth (%) in % Source: World Economic Outlook Database, IMF, 2014, World Bank Iran brief (2014) 1) Based on IMF World Economic Outlook Database 2014 (IFM estimates start after 2008 for GDP growth and after 2010 for inflation. -1.9% 1.5% 23.0% 35.0%
  6. 6. 5© 2014 1BlueHorizon Group - www.1bluehorizon.com All rights reserved1BHG | VIEWPOINT IRANIAN AIRLINES SECTOR 13.11.2014 FINALIZEDP R O P R I E TA R Y I N F O R M AT I O N Iran is facing severe economic sanctions from the USA as well as the European Union, covering most sectors of Iran’s economy including the airline industry Trade Relations with Iran Analysis  Most severe economic sanctions are being imposed by the USA, maintaining an almost absolute embargo with Iran  The European Union is maintaining a ban on foreign trade, financial services, energy sector, technological goods and insurance to Iranian firms  All Iranian financial institutions have been excluded from international monetary transactions through the electronic SWIFT network  Iran’s oil industry has been worst affected by international sanctions followed by the energy sector and aviation industry  Trade ties remain strongest with ECO countries (Economic Cooperation Organization), particularly Turkey & Pakistan as well as Russia & China Countries imposing sanctions Active trade partners Source: © 1BlueHorizon Group Analysis, The Economist, 2014; US Foreign Affairs Bureau, 2014; European Union, 2014
  7. 7. 6© 2014 1BlueHorizon Group - www.1bluehorizon.com All rights reserved1BHG | VIEWPOINT IRANIAN AIRLINES SECTOR 13.11.2014 FINALIZEDP R O P R I E TA R Y I N F O R M AT I O N International sanctions continue to pose great challenges on Iranian airlines’ operations, mainly in terms of buying/leasing aircrafts as well as financing fuel procurement International Economic Sanctions  The United States has imposed an arms ban and an almost total economic embargo on Iran; the sanctions also include a ban on selling aircraft or spare parts to Iranian airlines  Though international oil companies are not prohibited from supplying kerosene (worth up to $ 5m p.a.) to Iranian airlines, most firms chose not to engage in any business with the Iranian airlines  In June 2011, the United States imposed sanctions against Iran Air, stating that Iran Air had provided material support to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)  In 2012 the US froze all property of the Central Bank of Iran and other Iranian financial institutions, as well as that of the Iranian government, within the United States  The American view is that sanctions should target Iran's energy sector that provides about 80% of government revenues, and try to isolate Iran from the international financial system  Aircraft acquired must have less than 10% of US manufactured components on board and it must not have belonged to a US airline since its registration  As most Airbus aircraft are powered by General Electric, CFM, Pratt and Whitney or Rolls-Royce engines, Iran Air has not been able to acquire many of their aircraft  Current American sanctions do not prevent Iran Air from leasing American or European aircraft either  On flights from the EU, Iran Air is forced to add fuel stops at tier 2 airports including Istanbul, Budapest, Ljubljana or Belgrade in order to procure jet fuel  Most of the fleet of Iranian airlines today consist of old Boeing and used or leased Airbus as well as other manufacturers (e.g. Fokker, Tupolev). Most used aircrafts have been purchased through 3rd parties such as other airlines. This has resulted in a series of disasters and incidents: in the last 25 years there have been 17 plane crashes, resulting in 1,500 casualties  A number of 108 aircraft have been added to the fleet of Iranian passenger planes during the last five years Implications for Iranian Airlines Source: Financial Times, Spiegel, Bloomberg, © 1BlueHorizon Group Research & Analysis updated in 2014
  8. 8. 7© 2014 1BlueHorizon Group - www.1bluehorizon.com All rights reserved1BHG | VIEWPOINT IRANIAN AIRLINES SECTOR 13.11.2014 FINALIZEDP R O P R I E TA R Y I N F O R M AT I O N Although Iranian airlines have survived over 20 years of international sanctions on aircrafts and spare parts, rising fuel prices and inflation pose high pressure on their financial viability  The Iranian oil ministry, whose revenues have dwindled after EU oil sanctions imposed last year, has increased the price of jet fuel by 3.5 times for domestic flights and enforced international market rates for overseas destinations  In January 2013 the ministry refused to provide airlines with fuel until they paid off outstanding debt amounting to $285m, this dispute led to an unprecedented one-day halt in domestic flights  In 2012, the government of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad allowed the country’s 17 airlines to increase ticket fares by 65% for domestic flights and almost double for overseas destinations.  However, this increase did not cover the rocketing fuel and airline maintenance costs  In January 2013 the ministry refused to provide airlines with fuel until they paid off outstanding debt amounting to $285m, this dispute led to an unprecedented one-day halt in domestic flights Rising Fuel Prices  The central bank was hit by US sanctions last year and faces difficulties in transferring hard currency into the country  The central bank has not been able to consistently supply airlines with US dollars at semi-subsidized rate (24,516 rials) which is higher than the official rate, but lower than the open market rate  As a result, Iranian airlines are running up debts with overseas airports and companies  High inflation, which is officially 28.7% but believed by many economists to be far higher, coupled with the fall of rial (which has dropped by about 60 per cent over the past year) have also adversely affected passenger numbers  Aviation industry analysts fear that the financial crisis, coupled with the existing sanctions, may further erode the poor safety record of Iran’s airliners. Inflation and Currency Devaluation Source: Financial Times, Spiegel, Bloomberg, © 1BlueHorizon Group Research & Analysis updated in 2014
  9. 9. 8© 2014 1BlueHorizon Group - www.1bluehorizon.com All rights reserved1BHG | VIEWPOINT IRANIAN AIRLINES SECTOR 13.11.2014 FINALIZEDP R O P R I E TA R Y I N F O R M AT I O N Despite the challenges, the total air travel industry in/from Iran (business & leisure) will witness the strongest growth among all modes of transportation with aggregate growth of 4.8% p.a. 20.5% 20.6% 20.7% 20.9% 73.2% 73.2% 73.2% 73.2% 1.9%1.9%1.8%1.7% 2014ff 4.2%4.6% 7,130 4.4% 4.0% +12.6% 7,395 8,031 2015ff2013ff2012 7,698 AirLand Sea Rail Domestic Travel Forecast  Domestic air travel will increase consistently until 2015, outpacing overall growth both in the business and the leisure segments with an absolute CAGR of 3.5% p.a. and 5.1% p.a. respectively  Proportionally, domestic air travel will also gain in importance, representing 46.8% of all business and 49.2% of all leisure journeys by 2015 Total Departures by Mode of Transport  Total departures originating in Iran will grow by 12.6% until 2015: - Air traffic thereof will grow proportionally to represent ~21% of all departures (+4.8% p.a.) - Particularly sea transportation will witness declining demand, dropping to merely 4% of all departures ‘000 trips ‘000 trips 2012 +2.9% p.a. 11.4% 46.8% 43.0% 542 41.8% 2015ff 591 46.1% 11.0% LandAir Rail 49.2% 11.1% +3.9% p.a. 41.8% 6,916 39.8% 10.8% 47.4% 7,735 2012 2015ff LeisureBusiness Source: Euromonitor Iran Travel Industry 2014, © 1BlueHorizon Group Analysis
  10. 10. 9© 2014 1BlueHorizon Group - www.1bluehorizon.com All rights reserved1BHG | VIEWPOINT IRANIAN AIRLINES SECTOR 13.11.2014 FINALIZEDP R O P R I E TA R Y I N F O R M AT I O N By 2015, Turkey will become Iran’s most popular destination with growth of 8.2% p.a. (2010-2015); airlines will face tremendous potential to expand their route networks accordingly Departures/Arrivals from Iran (top 6 destinations) 568 613 656 444 473 525 517 602 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 9,000 1,000 7,000 5,000 3,000 2,990 2,288 8,031 2015ff2012 7,130 2,856 413 423 1,794 +4% ‘000 trips  Aggregate demand for travel from Iran (departures) will increase at a solid CAGR of 4% p.a. until 2015  Turkey represents the most favored destination from Iran, with the total number of trips increasing by 8.2% p.a. over the same period of time – By 2015, 28.5% of all departures from Iran will be destined for Turkey  By 2015, Saudi Arabia will represent the largest arrival origin and the 3rd largest departure destination from Iran – Though Saudi Arabia benefits tremendously from pilgrimage tourism during the Hajj, it merely contributes to 7.6% of all trips originating in Iran  By 2015, 37.2% of all departures as well as 41.8% of all arrivals will be from/to non-top 6 countries  The forecast indicates tremendous potential for airlines to extend their existing route networks to cover the identified growth destinations Industry Outlook Others India China Qatar Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates Turkey 858 933 187 161 174 168 215 180 225 191 208 206 293 275 3,000 2,500 1,000 0 2,000 500 1,500 2,038 2,233 2015ff2012 +3% Departures Arrivals Japan Pakistan Kuwait Syria Source: Euromonitor Iran Travel Industry 2014, © 1BlueHorizon Group Analysis
  11. 11. 10© 2014 1BlueHorizon Group - www.1bluehorizon.com All rights reserved1BHG | VIEWPOINT IRANIAN AIRLINES SECTOR 13.11.2014 FINALIZEDP R O P R I E TA R Y I N F O R M AT I O N On a global level, the airline industry is subject to volatile fuel prices, high interest rates, decreasing consumer spending and tightening regulations Energy Prices: Fluctuation in crude oil and related energy prices Interest Rates: Change in prime and related interest rates Consumer Spending: Change in overall level of consumer spending on goods and services Technology Innovation: Advances in science and technology, including information technology Government Regulations: Changes in government regulations or business policies Airline Industry Main Drivers Critical Issues and Challenges  Profitability depends on business/ consumer travel: Global aviation traffic rises and falls at twice the pace of economic output, so a change in the economy doubles the impact for airlines. Because of relatively high fixed-costs of airplanes, airport facilities, and labor, airlines cannot easily adjust to reduced passenger traffic  Fuel costs may vary tremendously – Jet fuel accounts for 20-30%of industry operating costs, relatively more for airlines with low labor costs. Fuel costs can change rapidly, making it difficult for airlines to adjust ticket prices  Capital-intensive industry - Airplanes are expensive to acquire and maintain. Most new airplanes typically cost between $50 and $250 million. Newer planes are usually more fuel-efficient, but the high prices deter many airlines from buying them  Airlines depend on skilled employees - Airlines cannot fly without certified pilots and mechanics, whose training takes years. The unions that represent these employees at most airlines have an exceptionally important voice in labor issues Source: © 1BlueHorizon Group Analysis, Market Research Airline Forecast 2014
  12. 12. 11© 2014 1BlueHorizon Group - www.1bluehorizon.com All rights reserved1BHG | VIEWPOINT IRANIAN AIRLINES SECTOR 13.11.2014 FINALIZEDP R O P R I E TA R Y I N F O R M AT I O N In the meantime, legacy carriers from around the world continue to face harsh profitability challenges with operational KPIs differing tremendously across the industry Airline Total Desti- nations Fleet Size Seat Load Factor # of Employ- ees Net Profit Margin 65 52 - 7,500 - 122 169 80% 33,634 2.4% 124 119 - 15,032 - 82 64 75.8% 9,038 0.03% 49 35 70% 3,876 - 42 30 73% 5,375 -38% 59 32 69.8% 4,545 -7.5% 43 60 72% 11,044 -4.8% 62 161 73.5% 29,852 -2% 185 184 141 179 199 111 142 126  Legacy carriers around the world are facing similar operational challenges towards profit margins and other relevant KPIs  When considering employee-to-aircraft ratios, airlines such as Gulf Air (111 employees per aircraft) or Qatar Airways (126 employees per aircraft) illustrate best-in-class performance  Iran Air illustrates a ratio of 144 employees per aircraft, a favorable ratio compared to local and global competitors 144 Employee/Aircraft Ratio for Selected Legacy Carriers Facts & Figures of Selected Legacy Carriers Source: © 1BlueHorizon Group Analysis, Arab Air Carriers Organization, 2014, Company Websites, Last published annual report, 2014
  13. 13. 12© 2014 1BlueHorizon Group - www.1bluehorizon.com All rights reserved1BHG | VIEWPOINT IRANIAN AIRLINES SECTOR 13.11.2014 FINALIZEDP R O P R I E TA R Y I N F O R M AT I O N  Jet fuel accounts for approx. 30% of airlines’ operating expenses  Airlines have tried to pass on fuel price increases to consumers, but unless all airlines do this simultaneously, those that did it were at a competitive disadvantage  To minimize the impact of fuel price increases, airlines may cancel low-capacity routes, consolidate routes, and use one- engine taxiing at airports.  Proactively, most airlines engage in financial hedging to protect against fuel cost increases, and may buy newer planes and engines that are more fuel-efficient for a particular type of service.  Fuel consumption of aircraft varies widely: an Airbus 319 that carries 122 may burn 758 gallons of fuel per hour, while a Boeing 747-400 that carries 369 may burn 3,500 gallons per hour. Because of high fuel costs, newer planes and engines have been designed to be as efficient as possible for a particular type of service However growth is ahead, with strong and complex cross winds existing… the jet fuel at low level of USD 66/bbl by the end of 2014 relieves airlines from increasing cost pressures Fuel Cost Jet Fuel Prices Source: BMI Freight Transport Report 2014, © 1BlueHorizon Group Analysis  A key contributor is Jet fuel prices which stood at $66/bbl, a reduction of 47% on Jan-14 and will thus relieve airlines from increasing cost pressures  In 2015 the fuel bill is estimated at $192 billion; 26.1% of operating expenses lower than previous years.
  14. 14. 13© 2014 1BlueHorizon Group - www.1bluehorizon.com All rights reserved1BHG | VIEWPOINT IRANIAN AIRLINES SECTOR 13.11.2014 FINALIZEDP R O P R I E TA R Y I N F O R M AT I O N Note: RPK stands for Revenue Passenger Kilometers Source: © 1BlueHorizon Group Analysis, Airbus Global Market Outlook 2014 (2014 – 2034) RPK traffic growth from/to Middle East by Region  One of the Key parameters when analyzing the region’s air transport is its people’s propensity to travel. There are several factors which directly affect this, including: • Economic stability and an expanding middle class • Growing and significant urban population • Strong and/or growing competition • High levels of immigration • Lack of extensive train networks in the region • And geographical features (large distance between population centers and the presence of large bodies of water or continental mountains) Propensity to travel 5.9% 6.8% Africa 6.4% North America 4.7% Europe 7.6% CIS 6.7% Asia-Pacific Middle East Latin America Despite sign of saturation on the Intra Middle East traffic due to condensed competition, the Middle Eastern carriers will grow from an 8% share to 13% of traffic in the next 20 year… There remains significant untapped potential for liberalization within the region: The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is taking steps toward opening its underserved domestic markets, and without any doubt as soon as the sanctions will be lifted Iran will follow… Strategically located, the Middle East is predestined as a global 1-stop hub connecting established Western with Eastern growth-markets with 2/3 of the world’s population within eight flying hours 7.4%
  15. 15. 14© 2014 1BlueHorizon Group - www.1bluehorizon.com All rights reserved1BHG | VIEWPOINT IRANIAN AIRLINES SECTOR 13.11.2014 FINALIZEDP R O P R I E TA R Y I N F O R M AT I O N Particularly, the Arabian sea has witnessed the emergence of several fast- growing carriers leading to increased competition also for the Iranian domestic market Airline Total Desti- nations* Middle East Europe / Americas Asia / Africa Home 65 35 21 / - 9 / - Tehran 55 37 6 / - 11 / 1 Tehran 54 54 - - Tehran, Shiraz 122 17 32 / 11 38 / 22 Dubai 124 25 30 / 7 43 / 19 Doha 82 16 16 / 5 37 / 8 Abu Dhabi 90 40 15 / 2 19 / 14 Jeddah, Riyadh, Dammam 62 28 15 / - 14 / 5 Dubai 82 26 21 / - 20 / 11 Sharjah * Individual routes may not add up to total number of destinations due to seasonality Home Base of Selected Airlines in the Persian Gulf Scheduled Network – Number of Destinations Source: © 1BlueHorizon Group Analysis, Airline Websites – Last published annual report 2014
  16. 16. 15© 2014 1BlueHorizon Group - www.1bluehorizon.com All rights reserved1BHG | VIEWPOINT IRANIAN AIRLINES SECTOR 13.11.2014 FINALIZEDP R O P R I E TA R Y I N F O R M AT I O N Independently of the Low Cost Carrier, different business models have emerged: in the Middle East only 21% of the aircraft are for Short Haul, in Europe 71% - means 3.4 times bigger... Long Haul 79% Short Haul 21% Long Haul 29% Short Haul 71% Middle East (313 Aircraft) Europe (1.523 Aircraft) Mix fleet 2013 Source: © 1BlueHorizon Group Research, Long Haul: All aircraft type> A320/B737 without B737ER, 2013 based on companies reports The Middle-East Big 3 (MEB3) The European Big 3 (EB3) Middle East is the only region in the world where the wide-body fleet is larger than the single-aisle fleet...
  17. 17. 16© 2014 1BlueHorizon Group - www.1bluehorizon.com All rights reserved1BHG | VIEWPOINT IRANIAN AIRLINES SECTOR 13.11.2014 FINALIZEDP R O P R I E TA R Y I N F O R M AT I O N The Long Haul fleet key advantage to link continents ... or the Middle-East Big Three ‘MEB3’ carriers have 3 times the ordered seat, in the next 10 years compared to the European Big 3 ‘EB3’ and the trend is growing 19,131 48,475 169,469 +188% 92,294 28,700 58,786 30,527 9,128 Source: © 1BlueHorizon Group Analysis, Ascend, www.anna.aero (without the last Dubai Air Show orders….)
  18. 18. 17© 2014 1BlueHorizon Group - www.1bluehorizon.com All rights reserved1BHG | VIEWPOINT IRANIAN AIRLINES SECTOR 13.11.2014 FINALIZEDP R O P R I E TA R Y I N F O R M AT I O N Foreign airlines maintain strong flight frequencies/seat capacities to Iran; Turkish Airlines offers 94 flights per week whereas Emirates accumulates a weekly seat capacity of ~16,418 Destination Map Iran Foreign & Domestic Airlines Air Traffic to/from Iran by Foreign Airlines Foreign airlines Domestic airlines Routes to/from Iran by foreign & domestic airlines  Based on the frequency of flights and the respective aircraft type used, the top 3 foreign airlines have available weekly seat capacity as follows: - Turkish Airlines*: ~12,972 available seats per week - Qatar Airways*: ~7,488 available seats per week - Emirates*: ~16,418 available seats per week  Emirates thus illustrates the largest seat capacity out of all foreign airlines serving Iran Top 3 Foreign Airlines # of Flights per Week to/from Iran Destinations in Iran Aircraft Type Used 94 Tehran; Shiraz; Esfahan; Mashad; Kermanshah; Tabriz A319/320 B737 52 Tehran; Shiraz; Mashad A320 45 Tehran B777-300 A330-200 * A319= 126 pax; A320= 143 pax; B737= 143 pax | A320= 144 pax B777-300= 386 pax; A330-200= 250 pax Source: © 1BlueHorizon Group Analysis, Airline Websites – Last published annual report 2014
  19. 19. 18© 2014 1BlueHorizon Group - www.1bluehorizon.com All rights reserved1BHG | VIEWPOINT IRANIAN AIRLINES SECTOR 13.11.2014 FINALIZEDP R O P R I E TA R Y I N F O R M AT I O N The Iranian airline Industry is also illustrating solid growth at 3.4% annually, driven by inbound and outbound flights from the Middle East and Asia Air Departures and Arrivals to Iran 1,352 1,400 1,459 1,523 1,594 1,680 666 688 711 735 761 788 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600 2,800 2015ff 2,258 2013ff 2,355 2014ff 2,468+4% 2,019 2,088 2,170 20112010 2012 ‘000 trips Arrivals Departures  Inbound travel will grow at a 3.4% CAGR to reach 0.78 million trips in 2015  Outbound travel will grow at a 4.4% CAGR to reach 1.68 million air trips in 2015  The total number of flights is expected to reach 2.5 million inbound and outbound flights by 2015  This positive growth trend will be dominated by growth in arrivals from the Middle East and Asia, offsetting a continued negative growth in arrivals from Europe and the US  The decline in arrivals from European countries will average a negative 1-2% during the forecast period, with a negative 2% CAGR for arrivals from Germany, Spain and from France  Strained relationships with South Korea will also see arrivals from this market decline at a much faster CAGR of - 4% during the coming years Industry Outlook Source: Euromonitor Iran Travel Industry 2014, © 1BlueHorizon Group Analysis
  20. 20. 19© 2014 1BlueHorizon Group - www.1bluehorizon.com All rights reserved1BHG | VIEWPOINT IRANIAN AIRLINES SECTOR 13.11.2014 FINALIZEDP R O P R I E TA R Y I N F O R M AT I O N The air travel market in Iran is set to reach a value of IRR 18.6 billion by 2015 despite growing concerns regarding aircrafts safety  Air transportation industry is set to increase by 4% annually to reach by 2015 a value of IRR18.6 billion  Domestic tourism sees the most activity, although it does not generate as much sales value, 3.8 million domestic trips will be taken by air in 2015, a 31% increase from 2010  The leading national carrier is Iran Air followed by Iran Aseman Airlines. Mahan Air and Kish Air also service an extensive network of domestic routes and also some intraregional routes. Domestic services by all airlines are frequent, reliable and time efficient for anyone travelling within the country  However, planes are beyond their typical life expectancy, especially those used on local routes and maintenance and safety are significantly below Western standards, making air travel within Iran a safety concern  According to the Iranian Civil Aviation Organization (IR- CAO), there were five accidents in Iran within 12 months extending from March 2009 to March 2010. A total of 186 civilians were killed in these accidents Industry OutlookAir Travel Value 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 19,0 18,5 18,0 17,5 17,0 16,5 16,0 15,5 15,0 14,5 14,0 18,6 17,7 17,0 16,3 15,6 15,1 IRR billion Source: Euromonitor Iran Travel Industry 2014, © 1BlueHorizon Group Analysis
  21. 21. 20© 2014 1BlueHorizon Group - www.1bluehorizon.com All rights reserved1BHG | VIEWPOINT IRANIAN AIRLINES SECTOR 13.11.2014 FINALIZEDP R O P R I E TA R Y I N F O R M AT I O N Air travel in Iran is split predominantly between Iran’s three largest players (Iran Air, Iran Aseman, Mahan Air with Meraj Airlines emerging) and a small presence of major international airlines Iran Air Iran Aseman Airlines Mahan Airlines International Airlines 2 4  The company commends a 13% market value share of international flights and an 8% share of domestic flights  There have been many security concerns plaguing Mahan Air’s brand image, although all other airlines have also had accidents and security issues  Mahan Air still lags behind in this context as it was also banned from flying to and from the EU in 2007. The U.S. has imposed sanctions on Mahan Air three times since 2011 for allegedly shipping arms to the Syrian government; ferrying members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps; and providing transport for the Lebanese militia Hezbollah. 3 1  Iran Aseman Airlines was created in 1980 and now operates scheduled domestic and regional flights in the Persian Gulf, as well as charter air services  The company was owned by Iranian Civil Pension Fund Investment and was privatized in 2008. It is based at Mehrabad International Airport for domestic flights and Imam Khomeini International Airport in Tehran for international flights  It has a base in Shiraz International Airport (SYZ) and Mashhad International Airport in addition to the Dubai International Airport  Iran Air is the country’s flag-carrier and operates services to 60 destinations, including 35 international and 25 domestic destinations  It is based at the Tehran Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA) for international flights and Tehran’s Mehrabad International Airport (THR) for domestic flights  The company also operates a low cost carrier, Iran Air Tours, which operates from the Mashhad International Airport (MHD)  The airline services domestic cities: Mashhad, Zahedan and Ahvaz.  The airline started operating in 1990, and is the main carrier for Iran Air’s domestic flights. The airline also operates charter flights  Key international destinations serviced by the airline include Dubai and Abu Dhabi, Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar and another 20 or domestic destinations. The company had a fleet of 36 aircraft as of November 2014  Low cost airlines including Air Arabia, AtlasJet and Jazeera Airways have also entered this market with some success  Air Arabia’s launch in Iran has contributed to increased traffic between the United Arab Emirates and Iran. Iranians travel a lot to the United Arab Emirates, especially to Dubai, although it is generally the more wealthy Iranians who go to Dubai and who would hence be less worried about cost  A number of international airlines also fly to Iran from several regional and intercontinental destinations, including the regional leaders: Emirates Airlines, Qatar Airways, Turkish Airlines as well as Saudia, which holds the largest market share of Saudi tourists travelling to Iran  Mahan Air is a private airline operating scheduled domestic flights and international flights to 61 destinations in 12 countries *Market share by total number of flights to/from Iran Iran Air 55% Others 45% Market share* Source: Euromonitor Iran Travel Industry 2014, © 1BlueHorizon Group Research & Analysis
  22. 22. 21© 2014 1BlueHorizon Group - www.1bluehorizon.com All rights reserved1BHG | VIEWPOINT IRANIAN AIRLINES SECTOR 13.11.2014 FINALIZEDP R O P R I E TA R Y I N F O R M AT I O N As Iran’s flag carrier, Iran Air was established in 1962 and operates three subsidiaries, operating services to 80 destinations. Overview Tehran  In spite of the restrictions due to sanctions, Iran Air has managed to continuously expand its operations and operates three subsidiaries – Iran Air Tours, Homa Tourism Center, and Homa Hotel Group  Iran Air Tours functions as an independent airline entity, nonetheless it is still considered to be a complementary organization for the activities of Iran Air  Homa Tourism Center covers incoming, outgoing and domestic tours, while Homa Hotel Group consists of five 5- star hotels in Tehran, Mashad, Shiraz, and Bandar Abbas. Subsidiaries  Iran Air is facing challenges in terms of fuel efficiency due to the outdated fleet in use  The fleet can’t be overhauled due to tightening international sanctions on the country  Customer loyalty and trust in the Airline is degrading due to the increasing number of safety incidents Future Outlook Fact Sheet  Iran Air was established in 1962, as a result of a merger between Pars Airways and Iranian Airways  Iran Air covers 35 destinations in the Middle East and 30 destinations outside the region  Frequent-flyer program: SkyGift  Since 1994, 10 Airbus planes and One Fokker have been added to the fleet that consists of 51 airplanes  Revenue: USD 850 million (2012) Source: Euromonitor Iran Travel Industry 2014, © 1BlueHorizon Group Analysis
  23. 23. 22© 2014 1BlueHorizon Group - www.1bluehorizon.com All rights reserved1BHG | VIEWPOINT IRANIAN AIRLINES SECTOR 13.11.2014 FINALIZEDP R O P R I E TA R Y I N F O R M AT I O N Iran Air’s current route network bears tremendous potential for expansion particularly to its key economic partners within ECO (incl. Pakistan) and China Iran Air Route Network – International & Domestic  With over 30 domestic and regional destinations, Iran Air has a solid coverage particularly on its domestic routes  However, it is facing strong competition from Middle Eastern carriers such as Turkish Airlines, Qatar Airways and Emirates who maintain high flight frequencies and large seat capacities to/from Iran  Iran Air is the sole carrier offering routes to/from Lebanon (incl. Mahan Air)  Serving over 20 destinations across Europe, Iran Air illustrates a developed route network, though these routes are subject to volatility due to the imposed sanctions by the European Union  As of today there are no routes connecting North Africa  Iran Air is also the sole carrier on routes to/from the UK, France, Denmark and Sweden  With just over 10 destinations across Asia, Iran Air still possesses tremendous potential to tap into the continent on a larger scale  Iran Air remains the sole carrier to its economic partners Pakistan and China as well as to India, Thailand and Malaysia (incl. Mahan Air)  As trade is expected to increase with Iran’s key economic partners within ECO as well as China, air travel growth to these countries is to be expected Middle East Europe Asia Source: Iran Air website, 2014
  24. 24. 23© 2014 1BlueHorizon Group - www.1bluehorizon.com All rights reserved1BHG | VIEWPOINT IRANIAN AIRLINES SECTOR 13.11.2014 FINALIZEDP R O P R I E TA R Y I N F O R M AT I O N At the end 2014, Iran Air fleet has plane averaging 27.1 years in age, which is almost twice the international average Source: © 1BlueHorizon Group | Case Material A modernization program needs to be implemented swiftly to avoid dramatically safety issues… Iran Air needs to purchase at least 100 wide-body and short-haul jets in the future… Aircraft Total Orders Passengers Year of entry Comment Potential J Y Total Airbus A300B4-200 8 0 30 248 278 1980 Airbus A300-600R 4 0 30 248 278 1994 Potential conversion to freighter (P2F program) Airbus A310-300 2 0 0 200 200 2001 Potential conversion to freighter (P2F program) Airbus A320-200 5 0 12 144 156 2009 Boeing B747-200BM 3 0 22 427 449 1978 Boeing B747SP 1 0 22 283 305 1978 Maintenance in China (?) Fokker 100 16 0 0 104 104 1991 McDonnell Douglas MD-82 1 0 12 133 145 2013 Leased Tupolev Tu-204 - 35 TBA TBA Deal announced in 2007(!) Iran Air Cargo Fleet Airbus A300B4-200F 2 0 1978 Boeing B747-200F 1 0 1980 Boeing B747-200C 1 0 2008 Total 44 35
  25. 25. 24© 2014 1BlueHorizon Group - www.1bluehorizon.com All rights reserved1BHG | VIEWPOINT IRANIAN AIRLINES SECTOR 13.11.2014 FINALIZEDP R O P R I E TA R Y I N F O R M AT I O N Mahan Airlines established in 1991 is Iran’s first private airline and today the largest airline based on seat numbers and fleet size (average 23.6 years) Overview Tehran Fact Sheet  The airline carried 5.6 million passengers in 2014 with an average load factor of 77% and in mid-2015 had a fleet of 65 aircraft, making it the largest airline in Iran based on seat numbers and fleet size;  The U.S. has imposed sanctions on Mahan Air three times since 2011 for allegedly shipping arms to the Syrian government; ferrying members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps; and providing transport for the Lebanese militia Hezbollah;  Mahan Air serves over 61 destinations. Source: Euromonitor Iran Travel Industry 2014, © 1BlueHorizon Group Analysis Aircraft Total Orders Passengers Year of entry Comment Potential J Y Total Airbus A300B4-200 2 0 16 231 249 Phasing out by 2015 Airbus A300-600R 14 0 21 28 246 Airbus A310-300 11 0 23 157 180 Airbus A321-200 1 0 --- --- --- Airbus A340-300 4 0 --- --- --- Airbus A340-600 7 0 55 160 215 Avro RJ85 / RJ100 6 0 8 104 112 Bae 146 10 0 0 90 90 1 -200 series / 9 -300 series Boeing B747-300 Combi 2 0 24 432 456 TOTAL 57 0
  26. 26. 25© 2014 1BlueHorizon Group - www.1bluehorizon.com All rights reserved1BHG | VIEWPOINT IRANIAN AIRLINES SECTOR 13.11.2014 FINALIZEDP R O P R I E TA R Y I N F O R M AT I O N Iran Aseman Airlines historic links go back to 1958 to the airline Air Taxi Co., which became Pars Air in the 1970s and later Iran Aseman Airlines Overview Tehran Fact Sheet  The airline was established and started operations in 1980;  Aseman was the first aviation company in the Middle East to provide Air Ambulance services;  The airline is owned by Iranian Civil Pension Fund Investment Company;  Iran Aseman Airlines serves over 54 destinations.  Iran Air fleet has plane averaging 23.4 years in age Source: Euromonitor Iran Travel Industry 2014, © 1BlueHorizon Group Analysis Aircraft Total Orders Passengers Year of entry Comment Potential J Y Total Airbus A320-200 3 0 --- --- 180 Airbus A340-300 1 0 --- --- 300 ATR 72-200 4 0 --- --- 70 ATR 72-500 2 0 --- --- 70 Boeing B727-200 3 0 --- --- 175 2 are B727-200F Boeing B737-400 2 0 --- --- 150 Fokker 100 20 0 --- --- 109 Dassault Falcon 20 1 0 --- --- --- Air Ambulance TOTAL 36 0
  27. 27. 26© 2014 1BlueHorizon Group - www.1bluehorizon.com All rights reserved1BHG | VIEWPOINT IRANIAN AIRLINES SECTOR 13.11.2014 FINALIZEDP R O P R I E TA R Y I N F O R M AT I O N Mahan Air outperforms Iran Air and Iran Aseman Airlines across major operational KPIs; all of Iran Air and Iran Aseman Airlines’s top 20 routes illustrate major delays and partially high flight cancellation rates Iranian Airlines - Operational Performance Top 20 Routes  Iran Air’s operational performance on its 20 most active routes indicates delays on every single of its routes  Average flight cancellations on its top 20 routes are comparatively high, particularly due to a cluster of routes with high cancellations e.g. RAS-THR  Though Iran Air outperforms Aseman across all KPIs, its performance is still significantly lower when compared with Mahan Air 96 52 46 3735 2927 21201815 121099 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 MHD - THR BND - THR 65 OMH - THR RAS- THR IKA - KUL AWZ - THR TBZ - THR 30 IKA - BOM BUZ - THR ZAH - THR IKA - FRA IKA - DXB ADU - THR 16 KSH - THR XBJ - THR AZD - THR 10 SYZ - THR IKA - IST IFN - THR Cancelled Flights (%) On-Time Performance (%) Average Delay (minutes)Minutes % Average Cancelled Flights 17% 2% 38% On-Time Performance 67% 71% 35% Average Delay 29 min. 12 min. 50 min. Source: © 1BlueHorizon Group Analysis, FlightStats, 2014
  28. 28. 27© 2014 1BlueHorizon Group - www.1bluehorizon.com All rights reserved1BHG | VIEWPOINT IRANIAN AIRLINES SECTOR 13.11.2014 FINALIZEDP R O P R I E TA R Y I N F O R M AT I O N Meraj Airlines established in 2010 is a Private and the first VIP airline, and the youngest airline in Iran based on the fleet age with 21.7 years (!) Overview Tehran Fact Sheet  Meraj Airlines It also operates the Air transports for the Heads of State and Government of Iran.  Based in Tehran-Mehrabad and Tehran-IKA, the company has established another 2 hubs as well, respectively in Mashhad and Kish Island for better coverage of its flight network.  Meraj Airlines is known as having punctual flights and the safest Airline in Iran and in the Middle East.  Meraj Airlines serves over 20 destinations. Source: Euromonitor Iran Travel Industry 2014, © 1BlueHorizon Group Analysis Aircraft Total Orders Passengers Year of entry Comment Potential J Y Total Airbus A300-600R 2 0 18 244 262 Airbus A320-200 4 0 12 156 168 1 in VIP configuration Airbus A321-231 1 0 --- --- --- VIP operated for the Gov. Airbus A340-300 1 TBA --- --- 90 VIP operated for the Gov. Boeing B707 2 0 --- --- --- VIP operated for the Gov. Boeing B737-4286 Adv 1 0 --- --- --- VIP Dassault Falcon 50 2 0 --- --- --- VIP TOTAL 13 0
  29. 29. 28© 2014 1BlueHorizon Group - www.1bluehorizon.com All rights reserved1BHG | VIEWPOINT IRANIAN AIRLINES SECTOR 13.11.2014 FINALIZEDP R O P R I E TA R Y I N F O R M AT I O N Other smaller airlines operate schedules domestic and international services, as well as charter services  Established in 2010 and based in Tabriz, ATA Airlines serves over 12 destinations. Overview Tabriz Source: Euromonitor Iran Travel Industry 2014, © 1BlueHorizon Group Analysis Aircraft Total Orders Passengers Year of entry Comment Potential J Y Total Airbus A320-200 4 0 --- --- 180 McDonnell Douglas MD-83 6 0 --- --- 161 TOTAL 10 0  Established in 1989 and operating from Kish Island, the airline serves over 18 destinations. Overview Kish Island Aircraft Total Orders Passengers Year of entry Comment Potential J Y Total Fokker 100 3 0 --- --- 117 McDonnell Douglas MD-82 5 0 --- --- 160 McDonnell Douglas MD-83 4 0 --- --- 162 TOTAL 12 0
  30. 30. 29© 2014 1BlueHorizon Group - www.1bluehorizon.com All rights reserved1BHG | VIEWPOINT IRANIAN AIRLINES SECTOR 13.11.2014 FINALIZEDP R O P R I E TA R Y I N F O R M AT I O N Other smaller airlines operate schedules domestic and international services, as well as charter services (cont’d)  Established in 1993 and operating from Tehran-Mehrabad, Caspian Airlines serves over 20 destinations. Overview Source: Euromonitor Iran Travel Industry 2014, © 1BlueHorizon Group Analysis Aircraft Total Orders Passengers Year of entry Comment Potential J Y Total McDonnell Douglas MD-82 1 0 --- --- 160 McDonnell Douglas MD-83 4 0 --- --- 162 TOTAL 5 0  Established in 1993 and operating from Qeshm Island, the airline serves over 22 destinations. Overview Qeshm Island Aircraft Total Orders Passengers Year of entry Comment Potential J Y Total Airbus A300-600 5 0 24 283 307 Airbus A320-200 3 0 12 144 156 Avro RJ100 4 0 0 110 110 Fokker 100 4 0 --- 117 117 TOTAL 12 0 Tehran
  31. 31. 30© 2014 1BlueHorizon Group - www.1bluehorizon.com All rights reserved1BHG | VIEWPOINT IRANIAN AIRLINES SECTOR 13.11.2014 FINALIZEDP R O P R I E TA R Y I N F O R M AT I O N The Fokker 100 is a medium size twin-turbofan airliner. With very low operational costs in the 100-seat short-range class made it a best seller when it was introduced in the late 1980s. The production ended in 1997 with 283 airframes delivered. Today around 200 Fokker 100 aircraft remained in airline service with 47 airlines around the world . Fokker 100 are available in the market and ideal to build a ‘Low Cost’ regional network within and around Iran. The market price unit, the maintenance cost and the fuel consumption are also very attractive (at least for the next ten years). Fokker 100 (or even Fokker 70) The Airbus A320 family consists of short- to medium-range, narrow-body, commercial passenger jet airliners manufactured by Airbus Industrie. The family includes the A318, A319, A320 and A321, and the ACJ business jet (passenger capacity ranges from 100, on the A318, to 220, on the A321). On 1 December 2010, Airbus officially launched the new generation of the A320 family with the A320neo "New Engine Option“ (with fuel savings of up to 15%). Airbus A320 aircraft are available in the market and still a very good aircraft for the coming decade despite the coming improved version. Airbus A320 family If for the Regional network a fuel-efficient fleet is essential today, Iranian airliners continue to purchase Fokker 100 and/or Airbus A320 aircraft types Note: Many aircraft in very good conditions are available in the market (Asia, South America, etc.) Source: Manufacturers websites, Fokker Services www.fokkerservices.com, © 1BlueHorizon Group Analysis
  32. 32. 31© 2014 1BlueHorizon Group - www.1bluehorizon.com All rights reserved1BHG | VIEWPOINT IRANIAN AIRLINES SECTOR 13.11.2014 FINALIZEDP R O P R I E TA R Y I N F O R M AT I O N A300-600 (‘Mahan Air’) A300-600 (‘Qeshm Airlines’) A300 B2-200 / B4 -200 to be phase out… The Airbus A300B2-200 is the first production version of the program launched in 1972 as the world's first twin-engined widebody (the first product of Airbus Industrie). The B2/B4 are 3-crew widebody and the maintenance cost and fuel burn very high. to be converted as freighter, or… The Airbus A300-600 and A310 -200/-300 are the world's first 2-crew widebody airliner with similar cockpit , eliminating the need for a flight engineer, including single type rating which ease operations. High demand in the market for (converted) freighters.  build on the experience (incl. crew)  keep some for conversion (2 to 4)  sell the rest to finance the P2F program For the short to medium range fleet, the time for the Airbus A300 family aircraft is over, at least as passenger aircraft (P2F to be considered) Note: At least EADS-EFW in Dresden Germany and MNG Technic in Turkey are offering Passenger to Freighter (P2F) conversion programs.
  33. 33. 32© 2014 1BlueHorizon Group - www.1bluehorizon.com All rights reserved1BHG | VIEWPOINT IRANIAN AIRLINES SECTOR 13.11.2014 FINALIZEDP R O P R I E TA R Y I N F O R M AT I O N The Boeing 747 is a wide-body commercial airliner and cargo transport aircraft, often referred to by its original nickname, Jumbo Jet, or Queen of the Skies. It was the first wide-body ever produced. The -100 was the original variant launched in 1966. The−200 model followed in 1971, featuring more powerful engines and a higher MTOW. Passenger, freighter and combination passenger-freighter versions of the −200 were produced. The shortened 747SP (special performance) with a longer range was also developed, and entered service in 1976. Boeing 747 SP / -100 / -200 / 200C / - 200BM The comfort and Economics of old 747 are not anymore at the industry standard, not eco-friendly with old engine technology associate with high fuel burn... Alternate to be considered If at this stage Iran Air is only considering the second hand market, we recommend to consider either the Airbus A330/A440 family (Iran Aseman)… B747-400 (Mahan Air). Or older B777-200 until the B-747-8 will be available there… Finally, for the ‘long haul’ fleet, we don’t believe that old Boeing 747 are still the appropriate aircraft, despite the available maintenance knowledge Note: Many aircraft in very good conditions are available in the market or will be available with ongoing fleet renewable (Middle East, Asia, South America, etc.) Source: Manufacturers websites, © 1BlueHorizon Group Research &Analysis
  34. 34. 33© 2014 1BlueHorizon Group - www.1bluehorizon.com All rights reserved1BHG | VIEWPOINT IRANIAN AIRLINES SECTOR 13.11.2014 FINALIZEDP R O P R I E TA R Y I N F O R M AT I O N With a captive market over 80 million people, the future look bright soon or later with sound growth ahead – but the sanctions are still in place, so far! Source: © 1BlueHorizon Group Analysis, CNN report September 2015 (http://edition.cnn.com/2015/09/09/travel/irans-aviation-industry/)  Since news of the Iran nuclear deal broke, lots of business clients have been calling up, BUT we have been forced to give them a bit of a cold shower…  There's this expectation, or assumption, in the business community that the sanctions are being lifted, when, in fact, the U.S. legal framework is scheduled to remain in place…  Only a small fraction of U.S. sanctions — the ones related to Iran's nuclear activities — will be suspended as part of this deal.  A senior Obama administration official put it this way in a briefing with reporters: ‘We are not removing our trade embargo on Iran.’  There is one big exception: the civil aviation industry. Once inspectors have certified that Iran is complying with the agreement, likely sometime early next year, companies such as Airbus and Boeing will be able to sell civilian aircraft and parts to Iran. Industry officials say that could mean sales of 400 aircraft worth $20 billion in the next decade!  OEMs spokesmen are all saying that their company is reviewing the agreement, but won't comment until the U.S. government gives further direction… but at the same time it is obvious that Negotiations with the manufacturing giants are under way!  At 1BlueHorizon we are pointing out that Europe's sanctions, which are far less extensive and longstanding than U.S. sanctions, will be lifted quickly…  The nuclear talks could still disrupt momentum. But as the international business elite set their sights on Iran, the new player is determined to welcome them with a world-class travel network. 1BlueHorizon Group® understanding related to the sanctions status:
  35. 35. 34© 2014 1BlueHorizon Group - www.1bluehorizon.com All rights reserved1BHG | VIEWPOINT IRANIAN AIRLINES SECTOR 13.11.2014 FINALIZEDP R O P R I E TA R Y I N F O R M AT I O N To date, true sanctions are still hurting Iranian commercial aviation by denying Iranian airlines access to safe and modern aircraft. Source: © 1BlueHorizon Group Research & Analysis With respect to U.S. sanctions against Iranian Airlines and Aviation not allowing them to order or purchase any airplanes, and only being allowed to purchase airplanes which is older than 10 years.  It is notorious that out of Iran’s 250 commercial planes, about 150 were flying while the rest are ‘not functional’ due to a lack of spare parts...  The National Development Fund of Iran has reportedly put aside $500m for purchasing aircraft and the same amount for the purchase of spare parts…  Head of Iran’s Civil Aviation Authority mention a few times that Iran would seek mass purchases of aircraft if the sanctions, which prevented the country from buying Western aircraft since the 1970s, were lifted…  ‘Once’… Iranian airlines will be ready to buy at least 40 passenger planes every year for 10 years…with an estimated value of around USD18 billion! ‘Don’t wait to liaise with the Iranian Airline Sector because at 1BlueHorizon Group® we have a feeling that if the windows and doors are open, we have to be there…’
  36. 36. 35© 2014 1BlueHorizon Group - www.1bluehorizon.com All rights reserved1BHG | VIEWPOINT IRANIAN AIRLINES SECTOR 13.11.2014 FINALIZEDP R O P R I E TA R Y I N F O R M AT I O N THANK YOU - MAMNUNAM LEONARD FAVRE Partner, Group Managing Director 1BlueHorizon Group Fischrain 88 M +41 79 2080256 (Switzerland) 3063 Ittigen - Bern M +971 50 6164007 (U.A.E.)) Switzerland leof007 leo@1bluehorizon.com www.1bluehorizon.com Abu Dhabi | Bern | Madrid | Montreal | Paris Any clarifications or questions regarding this document should be addressed to: We are used to generate 1BlueHorizon® out of the Rough... Customers with specialized needs often choose us for our unique custom turnkey solutions to propel their business further…
  37. 37. 36© 2014 1BlueHorizon Group - www.1bluehorizon.com All rights reserved1BHG | VIEWPOINT IRANIAN AIRLINES SECTOR 13.11.2014 FINALIZEDP R O P R I E TA R Y I N F O R M AT I O N LEGAL DISCLAIMER © 1BlueHorizon Group®. All rights reserved. Without the prior written consent of 1BlueHorizon Group®, it is not permitted to modify this document or create derivative works. High quality global airline industry insight requires investment. Please do not cut & paste the document. Email info@1bluehorizon.com to get / buy additional rights. This presentation has been prepared by 1BlueHorizon Group® (1BHG or the ‘Company’). This presentation does not constitute or form part of any offer to sell or issue, or invitation to purchase or subscribe for, or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for, any securities of the Company or in any other entity, nor shall this document or any part of it, or the fact of its presentation, form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or investment decision, nor does it constitute a recommendation regarding the securities of the Company or any other company. The information contained in this presentation has not been independently verified. This presentation does not purport to be all-inclusive or to contain all the information that a prospective investor in securities of the Company may desire or require in deciding whether or not to offer to purchase such securities. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made or given by or on behalf of the Company or any of its affiliates (within the meaning of Rule 405 under the US Securities Act 1933) (‘Affiliates’), members, directors, officers or employees or any other person as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information or opinions contained in this presentation or any other material discussed verbally. None of the Company or any of its Affiliates, members, directors, officers or employees nor any other person accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. The information in this presentation includes forward-looking statements which are based on the Company's or, as appropriate, the Company's directors' current expectations and projections about future events. These forward-looking statements may be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology, including the terms ‘believes’, ‘estimates’, ‘plans’, ‘projects, ‘anticipates’, ‘expects’, ‘intends’, ‘may’, ‘will’ or ‘should’ or, in each case, their negative or other variations or comparable terminology, or by discussion of strategy, plans, objectives, goals, future events or intentions. These forward-looking statements, as well as those included in any other material discussed at any analyst presentation, are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions about the Company and its subsidiaries and investments, including, among other things, the development of its business, trends in its operating industry, and future capital expenditures. In light of these risks, uncertainties and assumptions, the events or circumstances referred to in the forward-looking statements may differ materially from those indicated in these statements. Forward-looking statements may and often do materially differ from actual results. None of the future projections, expectations, estimates or prospects in this presentation should be taken as forecasts or promises nor should they be taken as implying any indication, assurance or guarantee that the assumptions on which such future projections, expectations, estimates or prospects have been prepared are correct or exhaustive or, in the case of the assumptions, fully stated in the presentation. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this presentation. Subject to obligations under the listing rules and disclosure rules made by the Financial Services Authority under Part VI of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (as amended), neither the Company nor any of its affiliates, or individuals acting on its behalf, undertakes to publicly update or revise any such forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. As a result of these risks, uncertainties and assumptions, you should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements as a prediction of actual results or otherwise. The information and opinions contained in this presentation and any other are material discussed verbally are provided as at the date of this presentation and are subject to verification, completion and change without notice. In giving this presentation, neither the Company nor its advisers and/or agents undertakes any obligation to provide the recipient with access to any additional information or to update this presentation or any additional information or to correct any inaccuracies in any such information which may become apparent.
  38. 38. 37© 2014 1BlueHorizon Group - www.1bluehorizon.com All rights reserved1BHG | VIEWPOINT IRANIAN AIRLINES SECTOR 13.11.2014 FINALIZEDP R O P R I E TA R Y I N F O R M AT I O N ABOUT 1BLUEHORIZON GROUP ® P R O P R I E TA R Y I N F O R M AT I O N 37© 2014 1BlueHorizon Group - www.1bluehorizon.com All rights reserved        A b u D h a b i | B e r n | L o n d o n | M a d r i d | M o n t r e a l | P a r i s 1BHG | VIEWPOINT IRANIAN AIRLINES SECTOR 13.11.2014
  39. 39. 38© 2014 1BlueHorizon Group - www.1bluehorizon.com All rights reserved1BHG | VIEWPOINT IRANIAN AIRLINES SECTOR 13.11.2014 FINALIZEDP R O P R I E TA R Y I N F O R M AT I O N Source: © 1BlueHorizon Group | Corporate profile 1BlueHorizon Group® value proposition is simple — Going the Extra Mile by generating trust to propel your business further O 1BlueHorizon Group® (Asset Management | Management Consulting | Interim Management) was established in 2007 as a network of International aviation professionals, providing objective, independent, evidence-based analysis, advice and implementation support. We build on the experience of our team to help clients realize real and measurable results, quickly. Start-ups, restructuring, cost cutting, project management office, due-diligence or exploiting growth opportunities, we have experts who have faced these challenges. O Our highly competent seasoned senior professional have experience from leading companies in both management roles within their disciplines and as senior level professional advisors throughout diverse and complex locations in the Middle East, Europe, Africa, Asia Pacific and North America. O Privately owned, 1BlueHorizon Group® is independent of any financial institution, manufacturer, operator, insurance company or maintenance provider assuring our clients the benefit of truly unbiased, comprehensive and flexible provision of service. O 1BlueHorizon Group® believes in working closely with client staff to transfer our knowledge and experience, which means 1BlueHorizon Group® continues to deliver value long after the project is complete. O A unique blend of languages, age groups, cultural backgrounds and skills qualifies 1BlueHorizon Group® to provide turnkey solutions for any and all of your aviation requirements - worldwide. O 1BlueHorizon Group® range of services is continuously tailored and adapted to suit the geographical scope and needs of our customers. P R O P R I E TA R Y I N F O R M AT I O N
  40. 40. 39© 2014 1BlueHorizon Group - www.1bluehorizon.com All rights reserved1BHG | VIEWPOINT IRANIAN AIRLINES SECTOR 13.11.2014 FINALIZEDP R O P R I E TA R Y I N F O R M AT I O N Wataniya Airways - Chairman Mr. Abdulsalam Al Bahar with Mrs Ghaida Abdul Latif, vice chairman – director general & CEO of Syrian Arab Airlines. Flydubai - CEO Mr. Ghaith Al Ghaith Gulf Air - Ex CEO Samer Majali H.E. Mohamed Hamad bin Azzan Al Mazrouei, WRDC's Director General and Acting Under Secretary of the Court of the Ruler's Representative in the Western Region (al Gharbia) of Abu Dhabi Emirate Democratic Republic in Congo (Transport) AerospaceOne Company in India Jet Green in Pakistan Ababeel Air in Libya His Highness Sheikh Ahmed Bin Saeed Al Maktoum, President of the Dubai Civil Aviation Authority, Chairman of Dubai Airports, Chairman & Chief Executive of Emirates Airline & Group 1BlueHorizon Group® is working for leading companies in different fields of the Aviation industry: Airliners, Airports, Aerospace and Authorities Note: A list of qualifications is made available separately P R O P R I E TA R Y I N F O R M AT I O N
  41. 41. 40© 2014 1BlueHorizon Group - www.1bluehorizon.com All rights reserved1BHG | VIEWPOINT IRANIAN AIRLINES SECTOR 13.11.2014 FINALIZEDP R O P R I E TA R Y I N F O R M AT I O N Family conglomerates (Governance, Portfolio analysis and investment Strategy) Economic development (Business review / Cluster / Project Management office) Air Transportation (Airline / Airport / General Aviation / Aerospace & Defense) Management Consulting Operational Improvement Our understanding of operational improvement is quite simple: Whereas restructuring is about stabilizing a company and fixing how it does things, operational improvement is about seeing a company through the transformation of becoming more competitive – going the Extra Mile. Asset Management Fleet Strategy & Planning With our Fleet Solutions, we can help you expand your fleet, transition from older models to newer aircraft types, or provide interim capacity. We back our support with a global team of technical experts and industry specialists who will provide you with the fleet solution and support that meets your specific needs. Interim Management Knowledge transfer Finding talent is difficult even at the best of time. Finding resources to assist for a short- term assignment of a proven heavyweight interim executive manager to manage a period of transition, crisis or change within an organization or to take on critical projects or senior positions for a limited time is even more difficult. Ahead of Strategies Three Practices Shareholders and management of companies with specialized needs often choose 1BHG for our unique custom turnkey solutions. If you want a business plan or a feasibility study to assess the case, or your are burning cash and running into trouble, or seek help to assess the case for entering immunized joint venture or looking for an interim management solution… 1BlueHorizon Group® highly competent seasoned professional will assist you to propel your business further… Going the extra mile ahead of strategies … 1BHG® Business model dedicated to particular Sectors is built around three Practices providing clients with turnkey solutions to maximize Value Creation Source: © 1BlueHorizon Group | Business model with Sectors (Horizontals) & Practices (Verticals) P R O P R I E TA R Y I N F O R M AT I O N … no matter how complex the issues are!
  42. 42. 41© 2014 1BlueHorizon Group - www.1bluehorizon.com All rights reserved1BHG | VIEWPOINT IRANIAN AIRLINES SECTOR 13.11.2014 FINALIZEDP R O P R I E TA R Y I N F O R M AT I O N Interim Manage- ment Managing Consulting Asset Management  The Management Consulting (MC) Practice is our ability to strike a rapport working side by side with you and quickly understanding what you need when the margin of error is thin… Providing a highly targeted surgical strike (to-the-point) to improve de performance and going the extra mile…  The Interim Management (IM) Practice help you by giving comfort and control with relevant seasoned advisors whenever and wherever they are needed… Whereas a management consultant provides an advisory role, Interim managers with performance improvement focus are directly responsible in delivering quick results, visible and measurable...  The Asset Management (AM) Practice works individually with each of our clients to develop creative strategies and solutions for all types of aviation equipment, with innovative financing models.… Source: © 1BlueHorizon Group | Practices Performance improvement Quick results / Hands-on Turnkey solutions Knowledge transfer Ahead of Strategies… The 1BlueHorizon® difference 1BlueHorizon Group® three dedicated Practices are built to propel clients business further with a comprehensive approach ahead of strategies P R O P R I E TA R Y I N F O R M AT I O N GENERATINGTHRUSTTO PROPEL YOUR BUSINESS FURTHER...
  43. 43. 42© 2014 1BlueHorizon Group - www.1bluehorizon.com All rights reserved1BHG | VIEWPOINT IRANIAN AIRLINES SECTOR 13.11.2014 FINALIZEDP R O P R I E TA R Y I N F O R M AT I O N 1BlueHorizon Group® Aviation Competence Areas Due Diligence (Merger & Acquisition) Air Cargo Business Network Strategies & Capacity optimization Market Intelligence Turnkey projects Restructuring & Performance Improvement Industry attractiveness Natural development Divest / strategic hold Low Moderate High Selective development Competitiveposition Dominant Strong Favourable Defendable Weak Industry attractiveness Natural development Divest / strategic hold Low Moderate High Selective development Competitiveposition Dominant Strong Favourable Defendable Weak Alliances Passenger experience & Service optimization Non-core Aviation Activities Ground & Aircraft Handling MRO & Maintenance Airline Strategy & Start-up Fleet Management & Sourcing Air Authorities support Airport Expansion Marketing , Sales Loyalty Programs Source: © 1BlueHorizon Group | Aviation Competence Areas Our expertise covers the entire breadth of the air-transportation business areas and is ideally suited to support Iran current and future requirements P R O P R I E TA R Y I N F O R M AT I O N
  44. 44. 43© 2014 1BlueHorizon Group - www.1bluehorizon.com All rights reserved1BHG | VIEWPOINT IRANIAN AIRLINES SECTOR 13.11.2014 FINALIZEDP R O P R I E TA R Y I N F O R M AT I O N “1BlueHorizon Group is the only consulting firm that works successfully on all levels: Board level, middle management, implementation" “1BHG senior personnel come in with strong views but integrate perfectly in our teams" “1BHG has convinced us through it's excellent industry- and technology expertise" "The 1BHG team knows perfectly well how to push the necessary change" “1BHG guys are implementation - oriented and their cooperation with my people is very good " “1BHG Practice has very qualified people who really know a lot about our industry" Testimonials - What do our Customers think about 1BlueHorizon Group® "In each project step, we could clearly identify 1BHG's added value and improve the overall bottom line" THE ONLY WAY TO DO GREAT WORK IS TO LOVE WHAT WE DO… A MILE OF RUNWAY WILL TAKE YOU ANYWHERE NO ONE HAS EVER COLLIDED WITH THE SKY Note: A list of qualifications is made available separately P R O P R I E TA R Y I N F O R M AT I O N
  45. 45. 44© 2014 1BlueHorizon Group - www.1bluehorizon.com All rights reserved1BHG | VIEWPOINT IRANIAN AIRLINES SECTOR 13.11.2014 FINALIZEDP R O P R I E TA R Y I N F O R M AT I O N Published books and decisive management theories that facilitate critical dialogue and support 1BlueHorizon creation A short selection of inescapable aviation related books “Baseline” (Philosophy) “Low Cost Carriers” “Courier services” “Various” Airlines’ Turnaround “Air Transport Management” Source: © 1BlueHorizon Group | Recommended bibliography (non exhaustive) Partners Network – Aviation Sector P R O P R I E TA R Y I N F O R M AT I O N
  46. 46. 45© 2014 1BlueHorizon Group - www.1bluehorizon.com All rights reserved1BHG | VIEWPOINT IRANIAN AIRLINES SECTOR 13.11.2014 FINALIZEDP R O P R I E TA R Y I N F O R M AT I O N

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