We may be nowhere near eradicating Dengue, but we may be able to prevent it more effectively. Through Time-Series Modeling and geospatial mapping, Team Flex was able to predict and forecast cases and deaths up to 4 months and identify potential dengue hotspots in selected cities of the CALABARZON region. The global threat of disease outbreaks is real and it is felt more than ever now as the world struggles to contain the spread of a certain virus. But before it even created a pandemic, there is already another disease that threatens our existence, perhaps has been doing so for the longest time – Dengue. Dengue affects thousands of lives each year and continues to be a major public health problem in the Philippines. In the last year alone, the Philippines experienced the worst dengue outbreak since 2012 as reported cases reached beyond epidemic thresholds. On top of that, the delayed reporting of official case and death counts makes it even more difficult to pinpoint heavily dengue affected areas early on and initiate a targeted public health response. To address this problem, Team Flex members, Janine Padilla, Mox Ballo, and Rache Melendres, developed a publicly accessible web application that can be used by concerned government agencies and public health officials to predict the spread of dengue and visualize potential breeding sites of mosquitoes.

1. FLEXTEAM
Fighting Dengue with Data
Capstone Presentation 8 February
2020

4. 1,607
429,409
as of 21-Dec-2019
Source: World Health Organization

5. Top 5 Regions with
highest cases,
Jan 2019 - Aug 2019
CALABARZON region is one the dengue-affected areas

6. Where & When?

7. Problem
How can we address delayed
reporting of dengue
surveillance data through
early prediction?

8. Solution
A web application
that:
1. Predicts the
spread of dengue

9. Solution
A web application
that:
1. Predicts the
spread of dengue
2. Visualizes
potential dengue
hotspot locations

10. FLEXTEAM
Computers Mobile Browsers

11. Before anything else..

13. Cities with highest reported
dengue cases in
CALABARZON
CALABARZON Region is one of the dengue affected areas
Source: https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1145624/dengue-outbreak-declared-in-cavite

14. Official
Dengue
Reports
Google
Searches
Climate
Data
Data Sources
Mosquitoes
infect and
spread
Dengue
Sickness
and Death
occurs

15. Our Insights

16. 2019 Highest peaks in August for Cases,
Deaths, and Google Searches

17. Dengue Cases,
JAN 2015- AUG
2019

18. Dengue Deaths,
JAN 2015- AUG
2019

19. Google Searches
Jan 2015- Aug 2019

20. Forecast Model

21. Dengue Cases in CALABARZON

22. Dengue Cases in CALABARZON

23. Satellite Model

24. Geospatial Map

25. Geospatial Map
Vegetation

26. Geospatial Map
Vegetation Water

27. Geospatial Mapping
using
+ =
Stagnant
WaterVegetation Water

28. Tools that we used :

30. WebApp Demo

31. Challenges

32. Challenges
Data Poverty

33. Challenges
Data Poverty Time Series Complexity

34. Challenges
Data Poverty Time Series Complexity Availability of weather
data
e

35. Challenges

36. Challenges
Copernicus satellite
imagesAccess

37. Impact

38. Impact
Every week we can reduce the
lag in public health response to
CALABARZON and save:
4 1,151Lives Cases

39. Recommendations

40. FOR GOVE R N MENT
• Make data more accessible
• Validate hotspot locations
• Initialize targeted preventive measures

41. • Make data more accessible
• Validate hotspot locations
• Initialize targeted preventive measures
(saving resources:)
FOR GOVE R N MENT

42. FOR THE PUB LIC
• Use information to identify high-risk
areas for dengue

43. FLEXTEAM
The Folks Behind Our Capstone
RACHELLE LEAH
MELENDRES
Connector
AIKO JANINE PADILLA
Scrummaster
ROXANNE BALLO
Maven

44. https://opendata.org.ph/flex/

45. Q & A