HOW TO MAKE A REALITY THE UTOPIA OF THE RATIONAL USE OF NATURE'S RESOURCES IN THE WORLD.pdf

F

This article aims to present how to make the sixth of the considered utopias come true, that of the rational use of nature's resources in the world to end its devastation. This article demonstrates that the depletion of natural resources and global warming with consequent global climate change are responsible for the devastation of nature which, in turn, contributes to the occurrence of pandemics which can threaten the survival of the human species. This article also shows how to avoid the depletion of the planet's natural resources, catastrophic global climate change and the multiplication of pandemics. An indisputable fact is that humanity already consumes more natural resources than the planet is capable of replenishing. Environmental damage is also characterized by the risk of the emergence of new pandemics as deforestation advances across the planet. We are now in a world where new pathogens will emerge. And this is what constitutes a gigantic threat to humanity. The environmental damage produced by capitalism is not only manifested in the depletion of natural resources on planet Earth and the emergence of new pandemics, but also stems from the fact that they are responsible for the rapid increase in global temperatures thanks to global warming and consequent climate change that tends to be catastrophic. It is for all this that it becomes imperative to implement the model of "sustainable development" that has become a key element in the global movement, crucial to finding viable solutions to solve the world's biggest problems, based on the thesis that a society sustainable is one that satisfies the needs of the present generation without diminishing the possibilities of future generations to meet theirs.

1
HOW TO MAKE A REALITY THE UTOPIA OF THE RATIONAL USE OF
NATURE'S RESOURCES IN THE WORLD
Fernando Alcoforado*
This article represents the continuation of the article whose title is Como fazer com que
as utopias planetárias se realizem visando a construção de um mundo melhor (How to
make planetary utopias come true with a view to building a better world) [1]. This article
is the sixth of 12 articles that address the 12 planetary utopias that need to be realized in
order to build a better world and contribute to the achievement of happiness for human
beings, individually and collectively. This article aims to present how to make the sixth
of the utopias considered, the rational use of nature's resources in the world to end its
devastation. This article demonstrates that the depletion of natural resources and global
warming with consequent global climate change are responsible for the devastation of
nature, which, in turn, contributes to the occurrence of pandemics, which can threaten the
survival of the human species. This article also shows how to avoid the depletion of the
planet's natural resources, catastrophic global climate change and the multiplication of
pandemics.
The article Como salvar a humanidade da devastação social, econômica, ambiental e das
guerras no século XXI (How to save humanity from social, economic, environmental
devastation and wars in the 21st century) [2] reports the following:
• The environmental damage produced by capitalism is manifested in the depletion of the
Earth's natural resources, in the emergence of new pandemics and in catastrophic global
climate change. The depletion of the planet's natural resources is verified based on the
analysis of available data that point to the fact that planet Earth is already reaching its
limits in the use of its natural resources. Available data on reserves of mineral resources
point to the fact that planet Earth is already reaching its limits based on information from
the US Geological Survey, the US government agency responsible for geological
research. The depletion of mineral resources such as oil is currently the greatest potential
source of world conflict. The dispute over water between several countries is becoming a
source of wars over water resources. The planet's food production capacity is also
reaching its limits.
• Currently, more than 80% of the world's population lives in countries that use more
resources than their own ecosystems can renew. The central capitalist countries
(European Union, United States and Japan), ecological debtors, have already exhausted
their own resources and have to import them. In the Global Footprint Network survey,
the Japanese consume 7.1 times more than they have and it would take four Italys to
supply the Italians. An indisputable fact is that humanity already consumes more natural
resources than the planet is capable of replenishing. Available data on reserves of mineral
resources point to the fact that planet Earth is already reaching its limits.
• Humanity currently uses 50% of the planet's fresh water. In 40 years it will use 80%.
The use of water that is unfit for consumption is responsible for 60% of the sick people
on the planet. Half of the world's rivers are contaminated by sewage, pesticides and
industrial waste. 748 million people on the planet do not have access to clean water
sources. Only 12% of the planet's land is arable. In the last 30 years, the total arable land
affected by severe droughts due to global warming has doubled. Of the 200 fish species
of greatest commercial interest, 120 are exploited beyond sustainable levels. At this rate,
the volume of available fish will have decreased by more than 90% by 2050. It is
estimated that 40% of the area of the oceans is seriously degraded by human action. In
2
the last 50 years the number of dead zones has grown 10 times. From 2050, the world's
population could exceed 10 billion people. With a population of over 10 billion people,
planet Earth may not be able to withstand such a demand for natural resources.
• An indisputable fact is that humanity already consumes more natural resources than the
planet is capable of replenishing. The current pace of consumption is a threat to
humanity's future prosperity. In the last 45 years, the demand for the planet's natural
resources has doubled, due to the rise in the standard of living in rich and emerging
countries and the increase in the world's population. Today, due to the current pace of
consumption, the demand for natural resources exceeds the Earth's replacement capacity
by 41%. If the escalation of this demand continues at the current pace, in 2050, with an
estimated planetary population of 10 billion people, it will take two Earths to satisfy it.
These facts show the depletion of natural resources on planet Earth.
• Environmental damage is also characterized by the risk of the emergence of new
pandemics as deforestation advances across the planet. There is the prospect that a
possible next pandemic could be as contagious and much more lethal than Covid-19,
which has already claimed the lives of more than 15 million people on the planet. The
emergence of a new disease is called by scientists "disease X" which is a concept of the
World Health Organization (WHO) for something unexpected or unknown that may still
appear. We are now in a world where new pathogens will emerge. This is what constitutes
a gigantic threat to humanity. A new pathogen will follow the same pattern of
transmission as others already found, passing from a wild animal to humans. If the
destruction of nature does not end, it is likely that even more deadly and destructive
diseases will hit humanity more quickly and more frequently in the future. The alert
comes from the world's leading biodiversity experts.
• The environmental damage produced by capitalism is not only manifested in the
depletion of the Earth's natural resources and the emergence of new pandemics, but also
stems from the fact that they are responsible for the rapid increase in global temperatures
thanks to the global warming that can contribute for the catastrophic global climate
change that will occur if the Earth's average temperature rise exceeds 2 ºC when humanity
would face droughts in some areas of the planet and intense rains in others compromising
food production, the submersion of islands and coastal cities due to the rise in sea levels
resulting from the melting of ice at the poles, Greenland and the mountain ranges and the
multitude of typhoons and hurricanes with devastating floods, among other problems.
The Paris Agreement seeks to avoid the rise in global average temperature well below
2°C above pre-industrial levels and make efforts to limit the rise in temperature to 1.5°C
above pre-industrial levels to reduce the risks and impacts of climate change. An issue
not addressed in the Paris Agreement (COP 21) concerns the wars that are proliferating
around the world and is largely responsible for the environmental degradation of the
planet due to its devastating effects on the environment.
The solutions to deal with the depletion of the planet's natural resources and with global
climate change are presented in the book Como inventar o futuro para mudar o mundo
(How to invent the future to change the world) [4] which informs the following:
• To avoid the depletion of mineral resources on planet Earth, which will mostly occur in
the middle of the 21st century, it is necessary to replace the linear economy that dominates
today, which demands a large volume of natural resources and does not recycle waste
from its production by the model circular economy that, based on reverse logistics,
recycles waste from its production activities. To avoid problems related to the supply of
3
water in quantity and quality, it is essential to avoid polluting surface and underground
water resources and to enable the reuse of potable water used after proper treatment
through reverse logistics. Food production can be increased with the increase in
agricultural productivity, but at the same time, it is necessary to avoid increasing the
population of planet Earth beyond 11 billion inhabitants in order to make it compatible
with the limit in food production. As for conflicts over oil and water, they will only be
mitigated or resolved with the implementation of a world government capable of seeking
solutions that prevent the outbreak of wars between the countries involved.
• Everything suggests that our development model is reaching its limits. With the lack of
natural resources necessary for its survival, humanity tends to regress to barbarism and
cruel behavior. To avoid this catastrophic scenario, it is necessary to adopt new economic
production methods or processes that result in: 1) lower consumption of raw materials
and energy resources; 2) lower consumption of water for irrigation and supply for the
population and industries associated with the reuse of drinking water; 3) replacing fossil
fuels with renewable energy sources; and, 4) limiting the Earth's population to 11 billion
inhabitants compatible with the maximum food production capable of being obtained.
• The risk that global warming contributes to the occurrence of catastrophic climate
change requires that all of humanity adopt the precautionary principle, which has its
application based on two assumptions: 1) the possibility that human conduct causes
collective damage linked to catastrophic situations that can affect all living beings; and,
2) the uncertainty regarding the existence of the feared harm. The fact that possible
catastrophic events resulting from global warming do not pose a measurable risk would
require the adoption of precautionary measures to prevent their occurrence. It must be
noted that we are dealing with a non-measurable, potential, non-assessable risk.
• The adoption of precautionary measures reinforces the duty of prudence. It is better to
take precautions than to face the catastrophe and try to solve it after it happens. The
precautionary principle goes further than the idea of preventing a certain risk, as it seeks
to preserve the environment considering an uncertain risk. Precaution is considered when
the risk is high - so high that full scientific certainty should not be required before taking
corrective action, but should apply in those cases where any activity could result in lasting
or irreversible damage to the environment. The precautionary principle differs from the
prevention principle, which is directly related to a certain risk, known to science. The
precautionary principle should govern decisions related to tackling catastrophic climate
change.
• The world is facing the challenge of not allowing global warming to exceed two degrees
centigrade in the 21st century. To avoid a warming of the planet above 2º C, it would be
necessary to stabilize the concentrations of carbon dioxide (and equivalents) at 400 ppm
(parts per million) without which the world would face catastrophic climate change by
the end of the 21st century that can threaten the survival of humanity. To do this, world
emissions will have to be reduced below their 1990 levels.
Solutions to deal with pandemics are presented in the article Futuras pandemias e
degradação ambiental (Future pandemics and environmental degradation) [3] which
states the following:
• The facts of reality demonstrate that the health of human beings depends on the health
of the planet. It is quite clear that humanity will have to make profound changes in its
relationship with nature to prevent new pandemics from happening that threaten its very
existence. There needs to be mobilization of civil society across the planet to build a new
4
world order in which there is a radical change in the concept of development as practiced
for centuries. Human beings need to live in harmony with nature, without which their
survival will be threatened. It is necessary to change the economic matrix in general
(agricultural, industrial and services) so that it starts to consider the need to preserve
nature, respect the limits of the environment and its recovery time and stop producing so
much garbage. It is necessary to immediately stop degrading and deforesting forests and
strengthen the health surveillance systems of all countries and the World Health
Organization (WHO), reduce social inequalities between and within nations, remove
subsidies that favor deforestation and offer more support for indigenous peoples to curb
deforestation.
• It is urgent to prohibit internationally the trade of species at high risk of virus
transmission and to eradicate the consumption of wild meat in the world, to create a
library of virus genetics, which will help in the mapping of places where new high risk
pathogens may arise, carry out investments of US$22 billion to US$31 billion per year
for a decade, to monitor and police the wildlife trade and prevent tropical deforestation,
and in health surveillance and biosecurity in livestock for consumption, which are
potential virus intermediaries that affect humans, mainly in areas close to forests to help
prevent future pandemics, as well as keep the world's population well informed about the
risks of new pandemics with reliable data, conceived through experience and science,
which would certainly be of great value to generate essential guidelines for their social
behavior with a view to their collaboration in the effort to prevent new pandemics. It is
preferable to prevent the occurrence of new pandemics at a low cost than to remedy them
with huge losses such as those registered with deaths and the resulting economic
stagnation. Without these actions proposed above, there will not be enough vaccines to
face the multiplicity of future pandemics.
It is for all these reasons that the implementation of the “sustainable development” model
is imperative, based on forms and processes that, when used, do not undermine the
integrity of the environment on which they depend. The book Como inventar o futuro
para mudar o mundo (How to invent the future to change the world) [4] informs that the
new society to be built would have to be sustainable from an economic, social and
environmental point of view. The concept of sustainability has become a key element in
the global movement, crucial to finding viable solutions to solve the world's biggest
problems, based on the thesis that a sustainable society is one that satisfies the needs of
the current generation without diminishing the possibilities of others future generations
to satisfy theirs.
How to build a sustainable society? The book Como inventar o futuro para mudar o
mundo (How to invent the future to change the world) [4] informs that building a
sustainable society is a task aimed at achieving the sustainable development goals
described below:
• Reduce global carbon emissions by promoting changes in the current world energy
matrix based fundamentally on fossil fuels (coal and oil), by other structured based on
renewable energy resources (hydroelectricity, biomass and solar and wind energy
sources) to avoid or minimize global warming and, consequently, the occurrence of
catastrophic changes in the Earth's climate.
• Improve energy efficiency by developing actions that lead to energy savings in the city
and in the countryside, in buildings, in agriculture, in industries and in means of transport
5
in general, thus contributing to the reduction of global carbon emissions and,
consequently, of the greenhouse effect.
• Ensure that motor vehicles and equipment for domestic, agricultural and industrial use
have greater efficiency, buildings are designed aiming at maximum savings in lighting,
refrigeration and heating, agriculture and industry are modeled in order to require the
minimum of energy resources and raw materials, also contemplating the self-production
of energy with the use of residues from its production processes based on reverse logistics
and, finally, the use of new transport alternatives from bicycles to high-capacity ones
based on railroads, among other initiatives.
• Combat land, air and water pollution by reducing waste by recycling currently used and
discarded materials. From this perspective, essential materials should only be used in
production processes and in other applications only as a last resort. When used in different
applications, they must, in the first place, be reused countless times; second, they must be
recycled to form a new product; third, they must be burned to extract all the energy they
contain and, only as a last resort, must they be removed to a landfill.
• Adjusting population growth to the resources available on the planet, reducing birth
rates, especially in countries and regions with high population growth rates.
• Reduce social inequalities, contemplating the adoption of measures that contribute to
meeting the basic needs of the world's population, such as food, clothing, housing, health
services, employment and a better quality of life. For there to be sustainable development,
it is therefore necessary that all human beings have their basic needs met and that they
are given opportunities to fulfill their aspirations for a better life.
• Make sure that economic growth and the resulting wealth are shared by all, education
services make it possible to increase the levels of qualification for work and the culture
of the population, health services are effective in combating infant mortality and
contribute to an increase in the life expectancy of the population, all men and women
have decent housing and public and private investments at the necessary level that
contribute to the reduction of mass unemployment as a result of the general crisis of the
world capitalist system that is registered in the current situation and which tends to get
worse in the future.
• Adopting the sustainable development model in cities, aiming to reconcile their
economic and social factors with the environment, assuring their population the right to
urban land, housing, environmental sanitation, urban infrastructure, transport and public
services, to work and leisure, for current and future generations.
• Plan sustainable cities based on the ordering and control of land use, in order to avoid
the degradation of natural resources, with clear and comprehensive policies for sanitation,
garbage collection and treatment; water management, with collection, treatment,
economy and reuse; transport systems that favor mass transport with quality and safety;
actions that preserve and expand green areas and the use of clean and renewable energies;
finally, transparent public administration shared with organized civil society.
• At the current time when the problems of global warming can lead to planetary
catastrophe, every city must have a plan to adapt to climate change, especially those
subject to extreme events.
REFERENCES
6
1. ALCOFORADO. Fernando. Como fazer com que as utopias planetárias se
realizem visando a construção de um mundo melhor. Available on the website
<https://www.academia.edu/104881861/COMO_FAZER_COM_QUE_AS_UTOPI
AS_PLANET%C3%81RIAS_SE_REALIZEM_VISANDO_A_CONSTRU%C3%8
7%C3%83O_DE_UM_MUNDO_MELHOR>.
2. ALCOFORADO, Fernando. Como salvar a humanidade da devastação social,
econômica, ambiental e das guerras no século XXI. Available on the website
<https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/como-salvar-humanidade-da-
devasta%C3%A7%C3%A3o-social-econ%C3%B4mica-
alcoforado/?originalSubdomain=pt>.
3. ALCOFORADO, Fernando. Futuras pandemias e degradação ambiental.
Available on the website <https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/futuras-pandemias-e-
degrada%C3%A7%C3%A3o-ambiental-fernando-
alcoforado/?originalSubdomain=pt>.
4. ALCOFORADO, Fernando. Como inventar o futuro para mudar o mundo.
Curitiba: Editora CRV, 2019.
* Fernando Alcoforado, awarded the medal of Engineering Merit of the CONFEA / CREA System, member
of the Bahia Academy of Education, of the SBPC- Brazilian Society for the Progress of Science and of
IPB- Polytechnic Institute of Bahia, engineer and doctor in Territorial Planning and Regional Development
from the University of Barcelona, college professor (Engineering, Economy and Administration) and
consultant in the areas of strategic planning, business planning, regional planning, urban planning and
energy systems, was Advisor to the Vice President of Engineering and Technology at LIGHT S.A. Electric
power distribution company from Rio de Janeiro, Strategic Planning Coordinator of CEPED- Bahia
Research and Development Center, Undersecretary of Energy of the State of Bahia, Secretary of Planning
of Salvador, is the author of the books Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC-
O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil
(Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de
doutorado. Universidade de Barcelona,http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização
e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século
XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions
of the Economic and Social Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller
Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária
(Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o
progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo,
São Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV,
Curitiba, 2012), Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI
(Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2015), As Grandes Revoluções Científicas, Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o
Mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2016), A Invenção de um novo Brasil (Editora CRV, Curitiba,
2017), Esquerda x Direita e a sua convergência (Associação Baiana de Imprensa, Salvador, 2018), Como
inventar o futuro para mudar o mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2019), A humanidade ameaçada e as
estratégias para sua sobrevivência (Editora Dialética, São Paulo, 2021), A escalada da ciência e da
tecnologia e sua contribuição ao progresso e à sobrevivência da humanidade (Editora CRV, Curitiba,
2022), a chapter in the book Flood Handbook (CRC Press, Boca Raton, Florida United States, 2022) and
How to protect human beings from threats to their existence and avoid the extinction of humanity (Generis
Publishing, Europe, Republic of Moldova, Chișinău, 2023).

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HOW TO MAKE A REALITY THE UTOPIA OF THE RATIONAL USE OF NATURE'S RESOURCES IN THE WORLD.pdf

  • 1. 1 HOW TO MAKE A REALITY THE UTOPIA OF THE RATIONAL USE OF NATURE'S RESOURCES IN THE WORLD Fernando Alcoforado* This article represents the continuation of the article whose title is Como fazer com que as utopias planetárias se realizem visando a construção de um mundo melhor (How to make planetary utopias come true with a view to building a better world) [1]. This article is the sixth of 12 articles that address the 12 planetary utopias that need to be realized in order to build a better world and contribute to the achievement of happiness for human beings, individually and collectively. This article aims to present how to make the sixth of the utopias considered, the rational use of nature's resources in the world to end its devastation. This article demonstrates that the depletion of natural resources and global warming with consequent global climate change are responsible for the devastation of nature, which, in turn, contributes to the occurrence of pandemics, which can threaten the survival of the human species. This article also shows how to avoid the depletion of the planet's natural resources, catastrophic global climate change and the multiplication of pandemics. The article Como salvar a humanidade da devastação social, econômica, ambiental e das guerras no século XXI (How to save humanity from social, economic, environmental devastation and wars in the 21st century) [2] reports the following: • The environmental damage produced by capitalism is manifested in the depletion of the Earth's natural resources, in the emergence of new pandemics and in catastrophic global climate change. The depletion of the planet's natural resources is verified based on the analysis of available data that point to the fact that planet Earth is already reaching its limits in the use of its natural resources. Available data on reserves of mineral resources point to the fact that planet Earth is already reaching its limits based on information from the US Geological Survey, the US government agency responsible for geological research. The depletion of mineral resources such as oil is currently the greatest potential source of world conflict. The dispute over water between several countries is becoming a source of wars over water resources. The planet's food production capacity is also reaching its limits. • Currently, more than 80% of the world's population lives in countries that use more resources than their own ecosystems can renew. The central capitalist countries (European Union, United States and Japan), ecological debtors, have already exhausted their own resources and have to import them. In the Global Footprint Network survey, the Japanese consume 7.1 times more than they have and it would take four Italys to supply the Italians. An indisputable fact is that humanity already consumes more natural resources than the planet is capable of replenishing. Available data on reserves of mineral resources point to the fact that planet Earth is already reaching its limits. • Humanity currently uses 50% of the planet's fresh water. In 40 years it will use 80%. The use of water that is unfit for consumption is responsible for 60% of the sick people on the planet. Half of the world's rivers are contaminated by sewage, pesticides and industrial waste. 748 million people on the planet do not have access to clean water sources. Only 12% of the planet's land is arable. In the last 30 years, the total arable land affected by severe droughts due to global warming has doubled. Of the 200 fish species of greatest commercial interest, 120 are exploited beyond sustainable levels. At this rate, the volume of available fish will have decreased by more than 90% by 2050. It is estimated that 40% of the area of the oceans is seriously degraded by human action. In
  • 2. 2 the last 50 years the number of dead zones has grown 10 times. From 2050, the world's population could exceed 10 billion people. With a population of over 10 billion people, planet Earth may not be able to withstand such a demand for natural resources. • An indisputable fact is that humanity already consumes more natural resources than the planet is capable of replenishing. The current pace of consumption is a threat to humanity's future prosperity. In the last 45 years, the demand for the planet's natural resources has doubled, due to the rise in the standard of living in rich and emerging countries and the increase in the world's population. Today, due to the current pace of consumption, the demand for natural resources exceeds the Earth's replacement capacity by 41%. If the escalation of this demand continues at the current pace, in 2050, with an estimated planetary population of 10 billion people, it will take two Earths to satisfy it. These facts show the depletion of natural resources on planet Earth. • Environmental damage is also characterized by the risk of the emergence of new pandemics as deforestation advances across the planet. There is the prospect that a possible next pandemic could be as contagious and much more lethal than Covid-19, which has already claimed the lives of more than 15 million people on the planet. The emergence of a new disease is called by scientists "disease X" which is a concept of the World Health Organization (WHO) for something unexpected or unknown that may still appear. We are now in a world where new pathogens will emerge. This is what constitutes a gigantic threat to humanity. A new pathogen will follow the same pattern of transmission as others already found, passing from a wild animal to humans. If the destruction of nature does not end, it is likely that even more deadly and destructive diseases will hit humanity more quickly and more frequently in the future. The alert comes from the world's leading biodiversity experts. • The environmental damage produced by capitalism is not only manifested in the depletion of the Earth's natural resources and the emergence of new pandemics, but also stems from the fact that they are responsible for the rapid increase in global temperatures thanks to the global warming that can contribute for the catastrophic global climate change that will occur if the Earth's average temperature rise exceeds 2 ºC when humanity would face droughts in some areas of the planet and intense rains in others compromising food production, the submersion of islands and coastal cities due to the rise in sea levels resulting from the melting of ice at the poles, Greenland and the mountain ranges and the multitude of typhoons and hurricanes with devastating floods, among other problems. The Paris Agreement seeks to avoid the rise in global average temperature well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and make efforts to limit the rise in temperature to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels to reduce the risks and impacts of climate change. An issue not addressed in the Paris Agreement (COP 21) concerns the wars that are proliferating around the world and is largely responsible for the environmental degradation of the planet due to its devastating effects on the environment. The solutions to deal with the depletion of the planet's natural resources and with global climate change are presented in the book Como inventar o futuro para mudar o mundo (How to invent the future to change the world) [4] which informs the following: • To avoid the depletion of mineral resources on planet Earth, which will mostly occur in the middle of the 21st century, it is necessary to replace the linear economy that dominates today, which demands a large volume of natural resources and does not recycle waste from its production by the model circular economy that, based on reverse logistics, recycles waste from its production activities. To avoid problems related to the supply of
  • 3. 3 water in quantity and quality, it is essential to avoid polluting surface and underground water resources and to enable the reuse of potable water used after proper treatment through reverse logistics. Food production can be increased with the increase in agricultural productivity, but at the same time, it is necessary to avoid increasing the population of planet Earth beyond 11 billion inhabitants in order to make it compatible with the limit in food production. As for conflicts over oil and water, they will only be mitigated or resolved with the implementation of a world government capable of seeking solutions that prevent the outbreak of wars between the countries involved. • Everything suggests that our development model is reaching its limits. With the lack of natural resources necessary for its survival, humanity tends to regress to barbarism and cruel behavior. To avoid this catastrophic scenario, it is necessary to adopt new economic production methods or processes that result in: 1) lower consumption of raw materials and energy resources; 2) lower consumption of water for irrigation and supply for the population and industries associated with the reuse of drinking water; 3) replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy sources; and, 4) limiting the Earth's population to 11 billion inhabitants compatible with the maximum food production capable of being obtained. • The risk that global warming contributes to the occurrence of catastrophic climate change requires that all of humanity adopt the precautionary principle, which has its application based on two assumptions: 1) the possibility that human conduct causes collective damage linked to catastrophic situations that can affect all living beings; and, 2) the uncertainty regarding the existence of the feared harm. The fact that possible catastrophic events resulting from global warming do not pose a measurable risk would require the adoption of precautionary measures to prevent their occurrence. It must be noted that we are dealing with a non-measurable, potential, non-assessable risk. • The adoption of precautionary measures reinforces the duty of prudence. It is better to take precautions than to face the catastrophe and try to solve it after it happens. The precautionary principle goes further than the idea of preventing a certain risk, as it seeks to preserve the environment considering an uncertain risk. Precaution is considered when the risk is high - so high that full scientific certainty should not be required before taking corrective action, but should apply in those cases where any activity could result in lasting or irreversible damage to the environment. The precautionary principle differs from the prevention principle, which is directly related to a certain risk, known to science. The precautionary principle should govern decisions related to tackling catastrophic climate change. • The world is facing the challenge of not allowing global warming to exceed two degrees centigrade in the 21st century. To avoid a warming of the planet above 2º C, it would be necessary to stabilize the concentrations of carbon dioxide (and equivalents) at 400 ppm (parts per million) without which the world would face catastrophic climate change by the end of the 21st century that can threaten the survival of humanity. To do this, world emissions will have to be reduced below their 1990 levels. Solutions to deal with pandemics are presented in the article Futuras pandemias e degradação ambiental (Future pandemics and environmental degradation) [3] which states the following: • The facts of reality demonstrate that the health of human beings depends on the health of the planet. It is quite clear that humanity will have to make profound changes in its relationship with nature to prevent new pandemics from happening that threaten its very existence. There needs to be mobilization of civil society across the planet to build a new
  • 4. 4 world order in which there is a radical change in the concept of development as practiced for centuries. Human beings need to live in harmony with nature, without which their survival will be threatened. It is necessary to change the economic matrix in general (agricultural, industrial and services) so that it starts to consider the need to preserve nature, respect the limits of the environment and its recovery time and stop producing so much garbage. It is necessary to immediately stop degrading and deforesting forests and strengthen the health surveillance systems of all countries and the World Health Organization (WHO), reduce social inequalities between and within nations, remove subsidies that favor deforestation and offer more support for indigenous peoples to curb deforestation. • It is urgent to prohibit internationally the trade of species at high risk of virus transmission and to eradicate the consumption of wild meat in the world, to create a library of virus genetics, which will help in the mapping of places where new high risk pathogens may arise, carry out investments of US$22 billion to US$31 billion per year for a decade, to monitor and police the wildlife trade and prevent tropical deforestation, and in health surveillance and biosecurity in livestock for consumption, which are potential virus intermediaries that affect humans, mainly in areas close to forests to help prevent future pandemics, as well as keep the world's population well informed about the risks of new pandemics with reliable data, conceived through experience and science, which would certainly be of great value to generate essential guidelines for their social behavior with a view to their collaboration in the effort to prevent new pandemics. It is preferable to prevent the occurrence of new pandemics at a low cost than to remedy them with huge losses such as those registered with deaths and the resulting economic stagnation. Without these actions proposed above, there will not be enough vaccines to face the multiplicity of future pandemics. It is for all these reasons that the implementation of the “sustainable development” model is imperative, based on forms and processes that, when used, do not undermine the integrity of the environment on which they depend. The book Como inventar o futuro para mudar o mundo (How to invent the future to change the world) [4] informs that the new society to be built would have to be sustainable from an economic, social and environmental point of view. The concept of sustainability has become a key element in the global movement, crucial to finding viable solutions to solve the world's biggest problems, based on the thesis that a sustainable society is one that satisfies the needs of the current generation without diminishing the possibilities of others future generations to satisfy theirs. How to build a sustainable society? The book Como inventar o futuro para mudar o mundo (How to invent the future to change the world) [4] informs that building a sustainable society is a task aimed at achieving the sustainable development goals described below: • Reduce global carbon emissions by promoting changes in the current world energy matrix based fundamentally on fossil fuels (coal and oil), by other structured based on renewable energy resources (hydroelectricity, biomass and solar and wind energy sources) to avoid or minimize global warming and, consequently, the occurrence of catastrophic changes in the Earth's climate. • Improve energy efficiency by developing actions that lead to energy savings in the city and in the countryside, in buildings, in agriculture, in industries and in means of transport
  • 5. 5 in general, thus contributing to the reduction of global carbon emissions and, consequently, of the greenhouse effect. • Ensure that motor vehicles and equipment for domestic, agricultural and industrial use have greater efficiency, buildings are designed aiming at maximum savings in lighting, refrigeration and heating, agriculture and industry are modeled in order to require the minimum of energy resources and raw materials, also contemplating the self-production of energy with the use of residues from its production processes based on reverse logistics and, finally, the use of new transport alternatives from bicycles to high-capacity ones based on railroads, among other initiatives. • Combat land, air and water pollution by reducing waste by recycling currently used and discarded materials. From this perspective, essential materials should only be used in production processes and in other applications only as a last resort. When used in different applications, they must, in the first place, be reused countless times; second, they must be recycled to form a new product; third, they must be burned to extract all the energy they contain and, only as a last resort, must they be removed to a landfill. • Adjusting population growth to the resources available on the planet, reducing birth rates, especially in countries and regions with high population growth rates. • Reduce social inequalities, contemplating the adoption of measures that contribute to meeting the basic needs of the world's population, such as food, clothing, housing, health services, employment and a better quality of life. For there to be sustainable development, it is therefore necessary that all human beings have their basic needs met and that they are given opportunities to fulfill their aspirations for a better life. • Make sure that economic growth and the resulting wealth are shared by all, education services make it possible to increase the levels of qualification for work and the culture of the population, health services are effective in combating infant mortality and contribute to an increase in the life expectancy of the population, all men and women have decent housing and public and private investments at the necessary level that contribute to the reduction of mass unemployment as a result of the general crisis of the world capitalist system that is registered in the current situation and which tends to get worse in the future. • Adopting the sustainable development model in cities, aiming to reconcile their economic and social factors with the environment, assuring their population the right to urban land, housing, environmental sanitation, urban infrastructure, transport and public services, to work and leisure, for current and future generations. • Plan sustainable cities based on the ordering and control of land use, in order to avoid the degradation of natural resources, with clear and comprehensive policies for sanitation, garbage collection and treatment; water management, with collection, treatment, economy and reuse; transport systems that favor mass transport with quality and safety; actions that preserve and expand green areas and the use of clean and renewable energies; finally, transparent public administration shared with organized civil society. • At the current time when the problems of global warming can lead to planetary catastrophe, every city must have a plan to adapt to climate change, especially those subject to extreme events. REFERENCES
  • 6. 6 1. ALCOFORADO. Fernando. Como fazer com que as utopias planetárias se realizem visando a construção de um mundo melhor. Available on the website <https://www.academia.edu/104881861/COMO_FAZER_COM_QUE_AS_UTOPI AS_PLANET%C3%81RIAS_SE_REALIZEM_VISANDO_A_CONSTRU%C3%8 7%C3%83O_DE_UM_MUNDO_MELHOR>. 2. ALCOFORADO, Fernando. Como salvar a humanidade da devastação social, econômica, ambiental e das guerras no século XXI. Available on the website <https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/como-salvar-humanidade-da- devasta%C3%A7%C3%A3o-social-econ%C3%B4mica- alcoforado/?originalSubdomain=pt>. 3. ALCOFORADO, Fernando. Futuras pandemias e degradação ambiental. Available on the website <https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/futuras-pandemias-e- degrada%C3%A7%C3%A3o-ambiental-fernando- alcoforado/?originalSubdomain=pt>. 4. ALCOFORADO, Fernando. Como inventar o futuro para mudar o mundo. Curitiba: Editora CRV, 2019. * Fernando Alcoforado, awarded the medal of Engineering Merit of the CONFEA / CREA System, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, of the SBPC- Brazilian Society for the Progress of Science and of IPB- Polytechnic Institute of Bahia, engineer and doctor in Territorial Planning and Regional Development from the University of Barcelona, college professor (Engineering, Economy and Administration) and consultant in the areas of strategic planning, business planning, regional planning, urban planning and energy systems, was Advisor to the Vice President of Engineering and Technology at LIGHT S.A. Electric power distribution company from Rio de Janeiro, Strategic Planning Coordinator of CEPED- Bahia Research and Development Center, Undersecretary of Energy of the State of Bahia, Secretary of Planning of Salvador, is the author of the books Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de Barcelona,http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2015), As Grandes Revoluções Científicas, Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2016), A Invenção de um novo Brasil (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2017), Esquerda x Direita e a sua convergência (Associação Baiana de Imprensa, Salvador, 2018), Como inventar o futuro para mudar o mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2019), A humanidade ameaçada e as estratégias para sua sobrevivência (Editora Dialética, São Paulo, 2021), A escalada da ciência e da tecnologia e sua contribuição ao progresso e à sobrevivência da humanidade (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2022), a chapter in the book Flood Handbook (CRC Press, Boca Raton, Florida United States, 2022) and How to protect human beings from threats to their existence and avoid the extinction of humanity (Generis Publishing, Europe, Republic of Moldova, Chișinău, 2023).