COULD THE SUN COMPETE WITH FOSSIL FUELS IN GREECE AND THE MIDDLE EAST?

242 F. MALTEZOU
COULD THE SUN COMPETE WITH FOSSIL FUELS
IN GREECE AND THE MIDDLE EAST?
Fotini Maltezou
Abstract
Greece and the Middle East - with their unrivalled regional climatic advantages - are
experiencing a small-scale solar revolution demonstrating increasingly attractive
economics that could prove to be a cost-competitive alternative to conventional fos-
sil fuels. Solar technologies offer opportunities for positive social impacts, and their
environmental burden is small. Two major categories of solar energy technologies ex-
ist: Photovoltaics (PV) and Concentrating Solar Power (CSP). The rapid cost decrease
of photovoltaic modules and systems in the last few years has opened new perspec-
tives for using solar energy as a major source of electricity in the coming years and
decades especially in this part of the world. North Africa, the Middle East, and south-
ernmost parts of Europe such as Greece are also among the most favorable areas for
the CSP resource. Undoubtedly, fossil fuels are expected to retain a presence, not only
as the dominant world fuel for traffic but also in developing countries where demand
is growing quickly. A large scale shift to low – carbon energy supplies is instrumental if
climate change is to be addressed. With current momentum and the increasing speed
of innovation, solar energy could become one of the mainstay resources in new energy
infrastructure and supply investment schemes even for oil producing countries.
Key words: Solar technologies, Middle East
I. A quick look into our near energy future1
A shift towards cleaner power is occurring across the global energy landscape. By
2030, the world’s power mix will be radically different from today’s, two-third’s of
which is comprised of fossil fuels. The world is adding more capacity for renewable
power each year than it adds for coal, natural gas, and oil combined. Renewable en-
ergy could represent up to 65% of the $7.7 trillion in new power plant investments and
60% of all new capacity additions expected over the next 15 years, according to the
1. This is an analysis about the increasing role that solar energy plays in Greece (EU member) and also in
the Middle East. Both areas are experiencing a small scale solar revolution targeting to increase solar
energy shares in their respective, dominated by fossil fuels, energy mix and secure a more sustainable
future.

Sun vs. Fossil fuels
F. MALTEZOU 243
2030 Market Outlook2 by BNEF (Bloomberg New Energy Finance). Fossil fuels are ex-
pected to retain a presence, especially in developing countries where demand is grow-
ing the fastest. Consumption of liquid fuels (oil, biofuels and other liquids) will rise
to 111 Mb/d by 2035, driven by non- OECD transport and industry. The fastest fuel
growth, however, is seen in renewables (6.3% p.a.).3
This is perceived as an opportunity to build more efficient, less polluting, and more
flexible energy systems that are also less vulnerable to rising and volatile fossil fuel
prices. Oil is mainly used for transportation; solar power and renewable in general are
used for electricity.
A switch to renewable energy may be a sign that, as the climate crisis becomes more
pronounced, a growing number of fossil fuels will need to remain in the ground. Such
a development is inevitable and is met with resistance from the fossil fuel industry.4
While the oil lobby may be seeking to delay the switch to renewables5 like solar en-
ergy, many countries are already making proactive strides towards setting-up solar-en-
ergy generation plants. Technology for a fossil fuel phase-out exists, but a full switch
won’t be easy, the Deputy Director-General of IRENA6, told Deutsche Welle.7
Nonetheless, the fact that an intergovernmental institution like IRENA was founded in
2009 to serve as the international organization dedicated to advancing renewable en-
ergy around the world is a strong indicator of the world’s readiness to embrace renew-
ables. Currently, 104 countries along with the European Union are members of IRENA,
while another 55 have applied for membership. ‘The idea of an international agency
dedicated to advancing renewable energy worldwide was first floated at the UN all
the way back in 1981, shortly after OPEC (the Organization of Petroleum Exporting
Countries) flexed its muscles and sparked the oil crises of the 1970s’. Right now IRENA,
is working on a very ambitious goal: a roadmap supporting the United Nations’ ob-
jectives to double the share of renewable energy8 by 20307 which stands a chance of
subduing climate change and keeping it down to just a two-degree increase in global
temperature. What is even more extraordinary, however, is that IRENA headquarters
are in Abu Dhabi a fact that clearly indicates the growing interest of GCC countries
-and especially the Emirates - to diversify their energy mix, though they are significant
producers of both oil and gas.
2. 2030 Market Outlook Global overview in Bloomberg New Energy Finance 2013 http://bnef.folioshack.
com/document/v71ve0nkrs8e0/who42hnkrs8fo
3. BP Energy Outlook 2035 Country and regional insights – Global BP p.l.c. 2015 http://www.bp.com/con-
tent/dam/bp/pdf/Energy-economics/energy-outlook 15/Energy_Outlook_global_insights_2035.pdf
4. Greenpeace ‘Dr. Willie Soon A Career Fueled by Big Oil and Coal’ updated February 2015.
5. Sylvan Lane ‘Senator Markey questions climate studies’ in Boston Globe, February 22, 201.5
6. IRENA is the International Renewable Energy Agency based in Abu Dhabi.
7. Deutsche Welle, ‘World renewables agency calls for major change’ 29.11.2012.
8. IRENA (2014), REmap 2030 ‘A Renewable Energy Roadmap’, June 2014.

ENERGY ENVIRONMENTAL TRANSFORMATIONS
244 F. MALTEZOU
As things stand now and if they remain unchanged the world is on pace for as much as
5 degrees Celcius of global warming.9 “If we want to reach the two-degree limit in the
most cost-effective manner, over 80 percent of current coal, half of gas and one third
of oil need to be classified as unburnable,” said Christophe McGlade, a research associ-
ate at University College London’s Institute for Sustainable Resources (ISR), during a
press conference. Certainly Canada, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the US cannot burn much
of the coal, oil and gas located within their national territories if the world wants to
curtail global warming.10
These global restrictions apply even if technologies that can capture carbon dioxide
and dispose of it become widespread over the next decade. Every day, the world pro-
duces carbon dioxide that is released into the earth’s atmosphere and which will still
be there in one hundred years time. This increased content of carbon dioxide increas-
es our planet’s temperature and is the main cause of the “Global Warming Effect”.
Replacing current technologies by new ones that have comparable or better perform-
ance, but do not emit carbon dioxide is one of the critical challenges in trying to reign
in climate change. As scientists have already underlined, CO2 concentrations have al-
ready touched 400 parts per million, the highest levels seen in at least 800,000 years
making the problem increasingly more dire. The rapid growth of renewables means
we may finally get some good news on climate change. What we would like to see
is global CO2 emissions to be on track to stop growing by the end of the next dec-
ade, with the peak only pushed back because of fast-growing developing countries.
Unfortunately, for the moment, this goal remains elusive and implementation difficult.
Oil majors, such as BP, estimate that despite current government policies and inten-
tions, fossil fuels will continue to dominate. Specifically, they project that ‘fossil fuels
are expected to provide the majority of the world’s energy needs, meeting two-thirds
of the increase in energy demand out to 2035’11 despite a shift in the energy mix with
renewables and unconventional fossil fuels taking a larger share.
II. Solar power generation, efficiency and storage
Solar power is, after hydro and wind, the third most important renewable energy
source in terms of globally installed capacity. Whilst a decade ago most analysts ex-
pected wind and solar to remain marginal in future decades, they are now viewed as
key contributors to future global electricity needs. A small-scale solar revolution will
take place over the next 15 years thanks to increasingly attractive economics in both
developed and developing countries, attracting the largest single share of cumulative
investment from 2013-2026. Solar energy can be generated in two forms, electricity
9. D. Biello, ‘Where in the World Are the Fossil Fuels That Cannot Be Burned to Restrain Global Warming?’
in Scientific American January 7, 2015.
10. D. Biello ‘Blacklist proposed for fossil fuels’ in Nature/ Scientific American, January 8, 2015.
11. BP Energy Outlook 2035, February 2015.

F. MALTEZOU 245
and heat. Two major categories of solar energy technologies exist: photovoltaics (PV)
and Concentrating Solar Power (CSP).
Photovoltaic power generation employs solar panels composed of a number of solar
cells containing a photovoltaic material. PV employs a semiconductor material, tradi-
tionally silicon but, increasingly, other materials as well (monocrystalline silicon, pol-
lycrystalline silicon, amorphous silicon, cadmium telluride, and copper indium gallium
selenide/sulfide) to convert sunlight directly into electricity. Solar PV panels capture en-
ergy from the sun and create direct current (DC) electricity. An inverter in the power box
converts the DC power into alternative current (AC) that is suitable for use by homes
and businesses. A two – way electricity meter records the amount of electricity gener-
ated and, if required, measures any power a home or a business feeds into the grid.
Photovoltaic systems release no greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and they don’t
even need direct sunlight to produce energy; they just need daylight and this means
they can operate even during cloudy and less bright days. Driven by advances in tech-
nology and increases in manufacturing scale and sophistication, the cost of photo-
voltaics has declined steadily (the price of solar panels has fallen by 80%) since the first
solar cells were manufactured12. The rapid cost decrease of photovoltaic modules and
systems in the last few years has opened new perspectives for using solar energy as a
major source of electricity in the coming years and decades. Low cost production of PV
panels from Chinese producers highly contributed to the price collapse and flooded
the European market with cheap products despite threats and legal action between
the two sides.
It is anticipated that the costs of electricity from PV in different parts of the world will
converge as markets develop, with an average cost reduction of 25% by 2020, 45% by
2030, and 65% by 2050.13
12. Figure is borrowed from http://newclimateeconomy.report/energy/
13. International Energy Agency, ‘Technology Roadmap Solar Photovoltaic Energy’, 2014.

246 F. MALTEZOU
CSP uses mirrors or lenses to concentrate sunlight and produce intense heat, which
is used to produce electricity via a thermal energy conversion process. Several CSP
technologies accomplish this by using concentrated sunlight to heat a fluid, boil water
with the heated fluid, and channel the resulting steam through a steam turbine to pro-
duce electricity. Here too, since no fossil fuels are being burned to produce heat, the
resultant energy is 100% eco-friendly. CSP has strong potential to be a key technology
for mitigating climate change. Solar thermal energy (STE) is an important pillar of the
much-needed energy revolution. STE from CSP plants is not broadly competitive today,
but on-demand STE has higher value than PV electricity. Even in areas where afternoon
peak time matches well with PV output, CSP plants offer a variety of ancillary services
that are becoming increasingly valuable as shares of PV and wind (both variable re-
newables) increase in the electricity mix.
Unlike solar photovoltaic (PV) technologies, CSP has an inherent capacity to store heat
energy for short periods of time for later conversion to electricity. When combined
with thermal storage capacity, CSP plants can continue to produce electricity even
when clouds block the sun or after sundown. CSP plants can also be equipped with
backup power from combustible fuels. There are four main CSP technology catego-
ries14 based on the way they focus the sun’s rays and the technology used to receive the
sun’s energy: Parabolic trough systems, Linear Fresnel reflectors (LFRs), Solar towers
(also known as central receiver systems CRS which use hundreds or thousands of small
reflectors, called heliostats, to concentrate the sun’s rays on a central receiver placed
atop a fixed tower), and Parabolic dishes (concentrate the sun’s rays at a focal point
above the center of the dish).
Parabolic troughs are the most mature of the CSP technologies and form the bulk of
current commercial plants. Most existing plants, however, have little or no thermal
storage and rely on combustible fuel as a backup to firm capacity. For example, all CSP
plants in Spain derive 12% to 15% of their annual electricity generation from burning
natural gas. Some newer plants have significant thermal storage capacities.
There are some distinct differences between PV and CSP deployment and electricity
production. CSP produces more electrical energy per unit of capacity because, on aver-
age, CSP is deployed where solar resources are higher, CSP systems always use solar
tracking, and CSP resources can be deployed with several hours of thermal storage ca-
pacity which significantly increases the capacity factor of a CSP plant. Despite this CSP
advantage the deployment of PVs is higher, compared with CSP systems, for several
reasons one of which is the price per unit of capacity which is lower for PVs than for
CSP. Solar PV module manufacturing can be done in large plants, and this allows for
economies of scale. PV can be deployed in very small quantities at a time. This quality
allows for a wide range of applications. Systems can be very small, such as in calcula-
14. Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) – Technology in energypedia (page was last modified on Sept 8,
2015): https://energypedia.info/wiki/Concentrating_Solar_Power_%28CSP%29_-_Technology

F. MALTEZOU 247
tors, up to utility-scale power generation facilities.15 It is anticipated that these factors
will influence the solar market at least until 2030 since solar is still at relatively low
levels of market penetration.
PV is becoming a mainstream player within the power system. After all, peak PV elec-
tricity generation coincides with the hours of peak electricity demand, and peak elec-
tricity prices correspond to a relatively high PV capacity value. At present, PV can be
deployed more economically and in close proximity to demand centers, which reduces
the expense and time required to develop new transmission infrastructure, whilst for
CSP new transmission lines may need to be built to carry CSP-generated electricity to
demand centers, with added costs. Therefore the main limitation to expansion of CSP
plants is not the availability of areas suitable for power production, but the distance
between these areas and many large consumption centers.
Transmitting energy over long distances has been criticized, with questions raised
over the cost of cabling compared to energy generation, and over electricity losses.
However, the study and current operating technology show that electricity losses us-
ing high voltage direct current transmission amount to only 3% per 1,000 km (10%
per 3,000 km). Therefore CSP has a greater chance to dominate the market after 2030.
Given the arid/semi-arid nature of environments that are well-suited for CSP, another
key challenge is accessing the cooling water needed for CSP plants. Dry or hybrid dry/
wet cooling can be used in areas with limited water resources such as in the MENA re-
gion.
CSP Potential would cover electricity requirements about 100 times the current con-
sumption of the Middle East, North Africa and the European Union combined. The sun-
rich deserts of the world play a special role. It has been found that in just six hours, the
world's deserts receive more energy from the sun than humankind consumes in a year.
In short, CSP would be largely capable of producing enough no-carbon or low-carbon
electricity to satisfy global demand. A key challenge, however, is that electricity de-
mand is not always situated close to the best CSP resources. Cross-border electricity
trade broadens the market for electricity production, creating opportunities for econo-
mies of scale in scope, an important potential cost factor for investors in new large
projects.
The IEA sees North African solar power as an attractive way to comply with current
and future renewable obligations of European Union countries. Scientific studies done
by the German Aerospace Center between 2004 and 2007 demonstrated that the
desert sun could meet rising power demand in the MENA region while also helping
to reduce carbon emissions across the EU-MENA region and power desalination plants
to provide fresh water to the MENA region. A further study called Desert Power 2050
was published in June 2012 and found that the MENA region would be able to meet its
15. IEA Reports, in: Renewables, ‘How solar energy could be the largest source of electricity by mid-centu-
ry’ (viewed on June 1, 2015): https://www.iea.org/topics/renewables/subtopics/solar/.

248 F. MALTEZOU
needs for power with renewable energy, while exporting its excess power to create an
export industry with an annual volume of more than €60 billion.16
By importing desert power, Europe could, furthermore, save a considerable amount
of money. The DESERTEC Industry Initiative (DII) aimed to establish a framework for
investments to supply the Middle East, North Africa and Europe with solar and wind
power but eventually attracted very little funding17. With regards to EU exports,
DESERTEC has abandoned its plan to export solar power generated from the Sahara
to Europe. Although the industrial alliance was initially set up to develop renewable
energy supplies in the Maghreb to feed up to 20% of European electricity demand by
2050, DESERTEC now concedes that Europe can provide for most of its needs indig-
enously. It appears that, whilst investing in solar projects is appealing, what is techni-
cally proven currently is that the possibility of export may not be happening for some
time. “At a very basic level, we are still missing lines and capacities for export,” admits
Susanne Nies, head of Energy Policy and Generation at Eurelectric, the European elec-
tricity industry association.17
To export renewable energy produced in the MENA desert region, a High Voltage
Direct Current (HVDC) electric power transmission system is needed. High Voltage DC
(HVDC) technology is a proven and economical method of power transmission over
very long distances and also a trusted method to connect asynchronous grids or grids
of different frequencies. With HVDC energy can also be transported in both directions.
For long-distance transmission HVDC suffers lower electrical losses than alternative
current (AC) transmission. Because of the higher solar radiation in MENA, the produc-
tion of energy, even with the included transmissions losses, is still advantageous over
the production in South Europe. Data from 2005 and 2013 reveal that many MENA
economies, particularly parts of the Arabian Peninsula and North Africa, compare fa-
vorably to many Southern European neighbors in a number of criteria, including the
intensity, duration, and predictability of sunshine throughout the year, suggesting the
LCOE (levelized cost of energy) for solar technologies should similarly compare favora-
bly to those already deployed in countries such as Spain, Italy, and Greece.
Most renewable energy technologies tend to share a relatively high initial capital cost
in comparison with competing energy technologies such as oil- and gas-fired power
generation technologies. This basic feature implies two policy-relevant conclusions:
first, that renewable energy costs need to be compared on a lifecycle basis rather than
based on their initial capital cost, as frequently applied in the case of fossil fuels; and
second, the financing of renewable energy projects requires specialized financial prod-
ucts.
The absence of cost-reflective energy and electricity tariffs in the MENA region today
currently conceals renewable energy potential cost advantage leaving its deployment
16. AG Reporter, ‘Renewable Energy in MENA – It’s Future Potential’ in Arabian Gazette February 1, 2013.
17. EurActiv, “Desertec abandons Sahara solar power export dream”, Aug 9, 2013.

F. MALTEZOU 249
subject to further economically distorting policies such as pre-determined renewable
targets and vague notions of ‘green’ job creation opportunities.
III. How efficient is solar energy technology?
Solar cells, most often made from silicon, typically convert sunlight into electricity
with an efficiency of only 10 percent to 20 percent, although some test cells do a lit-
tle better. This means that about 80% of the solar radiation that hits a rooftop panel
is lost. In these standard cells, the impact of a particle of light (a photon) releases an
electron to carry electric charge, but it also produces some useless excess heat.
To make solar economically more competitive, engineers must find ways to improve
the efficiency of the cells and to further lower their manufacturing costs. New materi-
als, arranged in novel ways, can evade current efficiency limits, with some multilayer
cells reaching 34 percent efficiency. Using nanotechnology (the nanocrystal approach)
efficiencies of 60 percent or higher could theoretically be reached. Lead and selenium
nanocrystals enhance the chance of releasing a second electron rather than the heat,
boosting the electric current output.
Converting solar energy efficiently into heat is achieved by tuning the material’s spec-
trum of absorption. Most of the sun’s energy reaches us within a specific band of wave-
lengths but only a very specific window you want to absorb in. Researchers at MIT
(2014) say they have accomplished the development of a material that comes very
close to the ‘ideal’ for solar absorption.18 The material is a two-dimensional metallic
dielectric photonic crystal, with the additional benefits of absorbing sunlight from a
wide range of angles (does not really need solar trackers) and withstands extremely
high temperatures. It is made from a collection of nanocavities. The absorption can
be tuned just by changing the size of the nanocavities and it works as part of a so-
lar-thermophotovoltaic (STPV) device: The sunlight’s energy is first converted to heat,
which then causes the material to glow, emitting light that can, in turn, be convert-
ed to an electric current. Most importantly, the material can also be made cheaply at
large scales. Improvements in energy efficiency are increasingly having an impact on
the way we live. With this in mind, we see more opportunities to create a cleaner and
more efficient energy footprint that is good for both the environment and the econo-
my over the long term. It has been proposed that it may be possible to develop space-
based solar plants, solar power satellites with large arrays of photovoltaic cells, that
would beam the energy they produce to Earth using microwaves or lasers. This could,
in principle, be a significant source of electrical power generated using non-fossil fuel
sources. Japanese and European space agencies, among others, are analyzing the pos-
sibility of developing such power plants in the 21st century.
18. David L. Chandler MIT News, ‘How to make a “perfect” solar absorber’ Sept. 29, 2014, https://newsof-
fice.mit.edu/2014/perfect-solar-cell-0929

250 F. MALTEZOU

IV. Storage opportunities
A barrier to widespread use of the sun’s energy is the need for storage. With suita-
ble storage, solar power could theoretically supply the world with all of its electricity
needs. Therefore, it is necessary to find efficient ways to store solar energy in order to
ensure a consistent energy supply when sunlight is scarce. Cloudy weather and night-
time darkness interrupt solar energy’s availability. Overcoming the barriers to wide-
spread solar power generation requires engineering innovations in several areas such
as for capturing the sun’s energy, converting it to useful forms, and storing it for use
when the sun itself is obscured. Many technologies offer mass-storage opportunities.
One of the most efficient ways to achieve this is to use solar energy to split water into
hydrogen and oxygen, and get the energy back 19 by replacing platinum with molyb-
denum (molybdenum-sulfide catalyst) in photo-electrochemical cells to enhance hy-
drogen production “hydrogen evolution reaction” through water splitting (sunlight
powers the electrolysis of water) as a means of storing solar energy. Germans offer a
longer-term vision for the role of storage in the energy sector that looks out to 2050,
with the expectation that the penetration of renewables could be as high as 80 to 90
percent. In Germany, storage definition covers three main categories: 20
a. power to heat (electricity converting to heating),
b. power to gas (electricity is converted to hydrogen and eventually is used in fuel
cell generators) and
c. power to power (direct electricity storage although this method may be lagging,
in part due to a historical lack of enthusiasm for electric cars in Germany), which
can utilize a range of storage technologies, including electrochemical (batteries),
mechanical or thermal.
As homes, businesses and utilities use more solar energy the need to provide reliable
power grows. Batteries can be used to store electricity during peak production and re-
lease it at night, when the sun isn’t shining. Tesla motors is moving into the energy
storage market and introduces (April 30, 2015) a battery system “Powerwall” aimed
at improving energy reliability for solar-powered homes and businesses, increasing
capacity and back-up electricity with a rechargeable lithium-ion battery that mounts
on the wall and comes in 7 kilowatt-hour or 10 kilowatt-hour versions.21 A larger, 100
kWh version of the cells is aimed at utility companies to help manage intermittent
electricity supplies from wind and solar. The Powerwall will begin shipping this year
(2015) in limited quantities, before production is scaled up next year.
19. RDmag, “A cheaper method of storing solar energy”, Aug 1, 2014, http://www.rdmag.com/
news/2014/01/cheaper-method-storing-solar-energy
20. T. Mischlau, ‘Power to Gas: opportunities for the storage of energy and connection with the transport
sector’, EU Sustainable Energy Weeks 2015, June 16 2015.
21. Bloomberg Business, ‘Tesla Launches Batteries for Homes, Businesses, Utilities’ in May 1, 2015.

F. MALTEZOU 251

V. Sustainable transport
Henry Ford was green 50 years before GREEN was considered ‘cool’. Henry Ford pre-
dicted back in 1925 that the future fuels used to power automobiles, trucks, planes,
and powerboat engines would come from sustainable and more eco-friendly resources
than fossil fuels. He even aggressively supported the use of hemp products to create bi-
odegradable auto parts. The transport sector uses over a quarter of the world’s energy
and is responsible for a comparable share of global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel com-
bustion. During the last few decades, environmental impact of the petroleum-based
transportation infrastructure, along with the peak oil, has led to renewed interest in
an electric transportation infrastructure.
For all EU countries, there is a common 2020 target of 10 % for the share of renew-
able energy in the transport sector (Directive 2009/28/EC).22 Each of them is required
to have at least 10% of their transport fuels come from renewable sources by 2020. At
present, beyond 2020 the only expected policy is vehicle CO2 targets (Tank to wheels
TTW). The current EC proposal suggests that the specific targets of the Fuel Quality
Directive (FQD) and Renewable Energy Directive (RED) would be discarded post 2020. 23
The electricity demand of the transport sector has today only a share of about 2%. The
average share of renewable energy sources in transport fuel consumption across the
EU-28 was 5.4 % in 2013, ranging from a high of 16.7 % in Sweden to less than 1.0 % in
Portugal, Spain and Estonia.24
The number of cars on the road is expected to triple by 2050, but most vehicles will
continue to run on petrol and diesel. Most of this growth (around 90%) will take place
in developing and transitional countries. Policy makers, the public, automobile manu-
facturers and even oil companies agree that the world’s transportation infrastructure
needs to be upgraded. Plug or plant? Engineering or biology? is the ‘debate of the day’.
So far it seems that batteries will win by a big margin. Hybrid electric vehicles, along
with other cleaner vehicle technologies, are also increasingly on the list of options.
Electric vehicles (EV) provide a clean and safe alternative to the internal combustion
engine. The electric vehicle is known to have faster acceleration but shorter distance
range than conventional engines. EVs powered by the present European electricity mix
offer a 10% to 24% decrease in global warming potential (GWP) relative to conven-
tional diesel or gasoline vehicles assuming lifetimes of 150,000 km. A big obstacle to
mass market availability of EVs today is the cost of batteries (about $500 per kilowatt
hour (kWh). This is expected to fall though, and if it reaches the $350 per kilowatt hour
22. European Commission, Renewable energy, ‘Moving towards a low carbon economy’, last update Sept
09 2015, https://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/topics/renewable-energy
23. EU 2030 Road Transport Decarbonisation Scenario Analysis E4tech - Long report UNICA 2014 E4tech
http://www.e4tech.com/PDF/Report_EU_Road_Transport_Decarbonisation_Final.pdf
24. European Commission, ‘Renewable energy statistics’ in Eurostat Data extracted in May 2015, http://
ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Renewable_energy_statistics

252 F. MALTEZOU
(kWh) EVs will become cost competitive with its gasoline equivalent. Electric vehicle
(EV) sales historically drop when crude oil price falls but this does not seem to be the
case anymore.
At a recent conference of institutional investors, Nat Kreamer (chair of the board for
the Solar Energy Industries Association, a trade association, and CEO of Clean Power
Finance) recalls the wrong assumption that low oil prices threaten solar. This relation-
ship (between oil and solar) has existed in the stock market but makes no sense in
terms of the fundamentals. Oil prices have plunged recently as increasing production
and slowing demand spark concern of a global oversupply. But, in everyday life and in
most places, customers do not feel the low oil price at the pump: Some countries are
using the opportunity of lower crude prices to increase taxes or reduce subsidies (fos-
sil fuel subsidies outpace renewable energy subsidies by a factor of 6). If a decision to
reduce fuel oil subsidies is taken this could eventually trigger a switch towards clean
energy.
It appears that there is no link between EV sales and crude prices since 2010. This time,
cheap oil is not dealing a blow to renewables as it has on previous occasions. After
all, oil prices fluctuate and are eventually expected to recover. The Bloomberg Global
Large Solar Index of 21 companies has sunk 25 percent over the month of September
2014, more than triple the 7.4 percent decline in the Nasdaq Composite Index over
the same period. BNEF notes, global EV sales increased ¼ in 2014 which is explained
by reasons such as: high European oil and gas taxes that negate any gains from lower
oil prices and China’s considerable investment in clean energy due to climate change
and pollution concerns. Governments are, moreover, assisting in this market transfor-
mation by providing sizable investments in research and development as well as con-
sumer incentives.
Looking at the larger picture, and specifically the electricity sector in the European
Union (EU 27), one can see the breakdown of energy inputs to produce electricity: The
highest share of electricity in 2013 was produced in power plants using renewable
sources of energy (27.3% , 8% of which is solar), followed by nuclear power plants
(26.9%), coal fired power plants (26.7%), gas (16.6%), oil (1.9%), and non-renewable
waste (0.8%).25
The numbers reveal that in Europe the intersection of oil and solar in the electricity
market is very small. Given, therefore, that oil and solar energy compete in different
energy sectors, for the most part, oil price fluctuation will not affect the mix of energy
inputs in this particular market. After all, volatility in oil prices gives renewables an
advantage due to predictability and declining costs. In other countries, however, some
of which are the world’s leading oil producers, the opposite is true because electricity
generation is heavily dependent on oil. These nations, are then forced to import oil
products (diesel) to provide a high percentage of their daily power requirements. So,
25. European Commission, Electricity and heat statistics Data from May 2015, http://ec.europa.eu/euro-
stat/statistics-explained/index.php/Electricity_and_heat_statistics

F. MALTEZOU 253
in places like these the price of oil does indeed make a fundamental difference in the
availability of electricity.
With solar cars and even planes under rapid development, future scenarios predict that
oil will be fast competing with solar powered electrically powered forms of transpor-
tation. The first spacecraft to use solar panels, for instance, was the Vanguard 1 sat-
ellite, launched by the US already in 1958. This was largely because of the influence
of Dr. Hans Ziegler, who can be regarded as the father of spacecraft solar power. In
May 1954, after examining the solar cells of previous researchers at Bell Laboratories,
Ziegler wrote, «Future development of the silicon solar cell may well render it into
an important source of electrical power as the roofs of all our buildings in cities and
towns equipped with solar cells would be sufficient to produce this country's entire
demand for electrical power.»26
In 2013, moreover, Solar Impulse, the first airplane of perpetual endurance, powered
by just solar energy flew across the United States, from the West to the East Coast,
without using a single drop of fuel. This was the first time a plane was capable of flying
such a long distance, day and night, powered exclusively by solar energy. The project
which was developed and financed privately, was led by Swiss businessman Andre
Borschberg and Swiss psychiatrist and aeronaut Bertrand Piccard. After Solar Impulse
set new world records, Bertrand Piccard and Andre Borschberg undertook an even
more daring challenge: the 2015 round-the-world flight! 27 In March 2015, Piccard
and Borschberg began a circumnavigation of the globe with Solar Impulse 2 depart-
ing from Abu Dhabi, in the United Arab Emirates. Following its record breaking trip
from Japan to Hawaii, the first ever oceanic crossing by a solar airplane, Solar Impulse
2 postponed the second half of the world round trip until April 2016 due to damaged
batteries.28 Nonetheless, innovation projects such as Solar Impulse re-affirm that fossil
fuels need not be the principal energy source in transportation in the future.
VI. Renewables in Greece and the EU
The use of renewable energy sources is seen as a key element of the EU’s energy policy.
The energy sector has been under the spotlight in recent years due to a number of is-
sues that have pushed energy to the top of national and EU political agendas; these
include:
a. the volatility of oil and gas prices;
b. interruptions to energy supplies from non-member countries;
26. J. Perlin, ‘From Space to Earth: The Story of Solar Electricity’, Harvard University Press, Cambridge,
Mass, 1999.
27. Solar impulse supporters program exploration to change the world copyright solar impulse SA 2015:
http://www.solarimpulse.com/en/
28. B. Jones ‘Solar Impulse’s round-the-world journey delayed by battery damage’, CNN Updated July 11
2015 http://edition.cnn.com/2015/07/11/travel/solar-impulse-damage-delays-round-the-world-flight/

254 F. MALTEZOU
c. blackouts aggravated by inefficient connections between national electricity net-
works;
d. the difficulties of market access for suppliers in relation to gas and electricity
markets;
e. concerns over the production of nuclear energy;
f. increased attention to anthropogenic effects on climate change.
The EU has set out plans for a new energy strategy based on a more secure, sustaina-
ble and low-carbon economy aiming to: reduce dependence on fuel from non-member
countries, and decouple energy costs from oil prices. The EU is at the forefront of cli-
mate policy making, with a far-reaching impact on the dynamics of international nego-
tiations and national debates in other countries. Aside from combating climate change
through a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, the use of renewable energy sources
is likely to result in more secure energy supplies, greater diversity in energy supply, a
reduction in air pollution, as well as the possibility for job creation in the renewable
energy sectors.
In 2009 a ‘climate and energy package’ was adopted, 29 with the goal of combating
climate change and boosting the EU’s energy security and competitiveness through the
development of a more sustainable and low-carbon economy. This package includes a
set of binding targets that are referred to as the 20–20–20 targets and commit the EU
to the following changes by 2020:
a. A reduction in EU greenhouse gas emissions of at least 20 % below 1990 levels;
b. Increase the share of energy from renewable sources to 20 % of the EU’s gross
final energy
c. At least 10 % of transport final energy consumption to come from renewable en-
ergy sources;
d. A 20 % reduction in primary energy use compared with projected levels, to be
achieved by improving energy efficiency.
In January 2014, the European Commission put forward a further set of energy and
climate objectives for 203030 with the aim of encouraging private investment in in-
frastructure and low-carbon technologies. These objectives are seen as a step towards
meeting the greenhouse gas emissions targets for 2050. The key targets proposed are
to have 40% less greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 than there were in 1990 and for the
share of renewable energy to reach at least 27% by 2030. Alongside the proposed tar-
29. European Commission, Climate Action, ‘2020 climate energy package’ last updated Sept 24, 2015:
http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2020/index_en.htm
30. European Commission, ‘2030 climate and energy goals for a competitive, secure and low-carbon EU
economy’, Press Release, Jan 22, 2014: http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-14-54_en.htm

F. MALTEZOU 255
gets were plans to reform the emissions trading system and to consider further amend-
ments to the energy efficiency directive.31
The EMA (Energy and Managing Authorities) Network brings together representa-
tives of national energy authorities with representatives of Cohesion Policy Managing
Authorities dealing with energy. It aims to help member states make the best possi-
ble use of Cohesion Policy funding to promote energy efficiency, renewable energy
and smart energy infrastructure, as well as energy-related research and innovation.
Transition to a low-carbon economy is a top priority for Cohesion Policy, with some
€38 billion due to be invested in this area during the 2014-2020 funding period 32. This
is more than double the amount spent during the previous funding period in 2007-
2013 and has at its core energy efficiency, renewable energy, smart grids and urban
mobility. Cohesion Policy investments contribute to the implementation of the frame-
work strategy for a resilient Energy Union with a forward-looking climate change poli-
cy that was adopted by the Commission, on 25 February 2015.
In 2013, renewable energy accounted for 16.5 % of total energy use for heating and
cooling in the EU-28. This is a significant increase from 9.9 % in 2004. The share of
renewable energy in gross final energy consumption is identified as a key indicator
for measuring progress under the Europe 2020 strategy for smart, sustainable and
inclusive growth. The IEA estimates that EU support for renewables will peak in the
2020s at around $70 billion annually and remain above $30 billion through 2035. Solar
power is, after hydro and wind, the third most important renewable energy source in
terms of globally installed capacity. Although solar makes up only 1% of the world’s
energy mix it is expected to be the largest global electricity source by 2050 according
to the IEA 33 . Solar photovoltaic (PV) systems could generate up to 16% of the world’s
electricity by 2050 while solar thermal electricity (STE) from concentrating solar pow-
er (CSP) plants could provide an additional 11%. Combined, these solar technologies
could prevent the emission of more than 6 billion tons of carbon dioxide per year by
2050 which is more than almost all of the direct emissions from the transport sector
worldwide today. Jenny Chase, a solar analyst, stated on Bloomberg that ‘no one can
kill solar energy’s current momentum’. Improved technology and economies of scale
have driven the costs down dramatically. Rooftop solar PV will dominate, creating a
“small-scale solar revolution”.
Former Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev, in his 2006 statement marking the 20th
anniversary of the Chernobyl nuclear disaster, urged the world's biggest industrialized
nations to set up a 50-billion-dollar fund to support solar power, warning that oil or
nuclear energy were not viable energy sources for the future. Incentives (government
31. European Commission, Climate Action, ‘EU leaders agree 2030 climate and energy goals’ in Oct 24,
2014 last updated Sept 24 2015: http://ec.europa.eu/clima/news/articles/news_2014102401_en.htm
32. European Commission, ‘How EU Cohesion Policy is helping to tackle the challenges of climate change
and energy security’, Sept 2014.
33. International Energy Agency, ‘How solar energy could be the largest source of electricity by mid-centu-
ry’ Press Release, Sept 29, 2014: http://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/pressreleases/2014/septem-
ber/how-solar-energy-could-be-the-largest-source-of-electricity-by-mid-century.html

256 F. MALTEZOU
and state subsidies) play a major role in making solar power affordable. Many of the
countries that have the highest capacities of installed solar power today do not neces-
sarily have high levels of insolation. The switch from fossil fuel and nuclear to renew-
able energy is mostly supported by the Germans. They call their renewable energy plan
“Energiewende”. The Germans have established a significant solar capacity, although
climate conditions in Germany are not as good when compared with the favorable
conditions in other parts of the world, such as Greece and the Middle East. Solar pow-
er in Germany consists almost exclusively of photovoltaics (PV) and accounted for an
estimated 6.1 percent of the country's net-electricity generation in 2014.34 The country
has been the world’s top PV installer for several years and still leads in terms of the
overall installed capacity, that amounted to 39,000 megawatts (MW) by the end of July
2015, ahead of China, Japan, Italy, and the United States.
Although solar energy accounted for only 5,1% of the EU-28 renewable energy pro-
duced in 2012, it indicates a particularly rapid expansion in output. Europe added 10.9
gigawatt hours of solar capabilities in 2013, bringing the total to 89 GW over the re-
gion. “This represents a 16 percent increase compared to the year before and about 59
percent of the world’s cumulative photovoltaic capacity,” said a European Photovoltaic
Industry Association (EPIA) spokesman to The Guardian. “2013 was a record year
for the UK, with 1.5GW installed.”35 Germany was the top European market which
installed 3.3GW. Several other European markets exceeded the one GW mark: Italy
1.4GW, Romania 1.1GW and Greece 1.04GW. The amount of solar, as of the fourth
quarter of 2014 installed in the US, is mentioned for comparative reasons here to be 20
GW.
Almost 11 GW of PV capacities were connected in 2013, to the European grid com-
pared with 17.7 GW in 2012, and more than 22.4 GW in 2011. For the first time since
2003, Europe lost its leadership to Asia in terms of new installations according to the
EPIA36. Europe’s role as the unquestioned leader in the PV market has thus come to an
end. While Europe accounted for 74% of the world’s new PV installations in 2011, and
even around 55% the year after, it represented only 29% of the world’s new PV instal-
lations in 2013. Still, various markets in Europe continue to have strong potential for
significant PV growth in the coming years. The growth in electricity from solar power
was dramatic, rising from just 0.3 TWh in 2002 to overtake geothermal energy in 2008
and biomass and renewable waste in 2011 to reach a level of 71.0 TWh in 2012, some
252 times as high as 10 years earlier.
34. Fraunhofer ISE, ‘Recent Facts about Photovoltaics in Germany’, May 19, 2015 https://www.ise.fraun-
hofer.de/en/publications/veroeffentlichungen-pdf-dateien-en/studien-und-konzeptpapiere/recent-
facts-about-photovoltaics-in-germany.pdf
35. The Guardian, ‘UK and Germany break solar power records’, June 23, 2014: http://www.theguardian.
com/environment/2014/jun/23/uk-and-germany-break-solar-power-records
36. European Photovoltaic Industry Association, ‘Global Market outlook for Photovoltaics 2014-2018’:
http://helapco.gr/wp-content/uploads/EPIA_Global_Market_Outlook_for_Photovoltaics_2014-2018_
Medium_Res.pdf

F. MALTEZOU 257
Over this 10-year period, the contribution of solar power to all electricity generated
from renewable energy sources in the EU-28 rose from 0.1 % to 10.5 %. In 2013, the
electricity generated from solar energy surpassed wood and other solid biomass and
is now the third most important contributor to the electricity production from renew-
able sources according to a 2015, Eurostat Report.37 Solar and wind generation are in-
termittent energy sources: their utilization rate is much lower than for those renewa-
bles used in conventional thermal power stations (as well as compared with fossil fuels
and nuclear power), but midday solar generation corresponds well with times of peak
midday electricity demand, and solar electricity could well offset more expensive peak-
ing generation resources, like fossil fuels.
PVs currently provide roughly 3% of electricity demand in Europe, up from 1.15 % at
the end of 2010. The rates get higher when it comes to peak electricity demand in
Europe, in which case, PV provides for 6% in total and in particular more than 15% in
Italy and Greece, and more than 13% in Germany. In Italy, today more than 7.5% of
the electricity comes from PV systems connected at the end of 2013. Greece jumped to
the same level of electricity demand met with PV as Italy over the space of only three
years. In Germany, this figure is more than 6.1% and in Romania it reached 2.5% in
only one year. Ten other European countries are now meeting more than 1% of their
electricity demand with PV, including Belgium and Bulgaria, with others progressing
rapidly. In 2013 a vigorous market saw Greece cross the one GW mark again with 1.04
GW installed.
Germany is number one in the world and has more installed solar power capacity than
any other nation (38.5 GW of capacity - nearly half of Europe's total of 89 GWs). This
capacity has increased about 130 times, since 2002. Despite its high capacity, solar
power appeared to cover only 6.1% of the country’s gross electricity consumption dur-
ing 2014. Solar power capabilities have grown 34 percent in the first five months of
2014 38, compared to the same period in 2013, according to the government develop-
ment agency, Germany Trade and Invest (GTAI). This follows a successful governmen-
tal policy of encouraging citizens to install solar panels on their roofs. Germany aims
for a total capacity of 66 GW by 2030 (contribution to the country’s overall electricity
consumption by 50%) with an annual growth of 2.5-3.5 GW. Dirk Biermann, an en-
gineer at electricity network operator 50Hertz, told Deutsche Welle39 that the March
2015 eclipse was a “stress test” for the Energiewende - the country’s gradual, mas-
sive shift toward renewable energies. The network engineers wanted to show that it
is possible to deal successfully with large-scale fluctuations in renewable energy input,
whether from sudden increases and decreases in solar energy or in wind power.
37. Eurostat statistics, ‘Energy from renewable sources’, Data extracted in March 2015, Last updated Sept
18 2015: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Energy_from_renewable_sources
38. The Guardian, ‘UK and Germany break solar power records’ June 23, 2014.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/jun/23/uk-and-germany-break-solar-power-records
39. DW Renewables ‘German power net survives solar eclipse’ in March 20, 2015: http://www.dw.com/en/
german-power-net-survives-solar-eclipse/a-18331190

258 F. MALTEZOU
Italy follows with 16,361 MW as it added more than 3.4 GW of solar PV capacity in
2012. France, UK, Greece and Bulgaria were not far behind. Ukraine in recent years has
saved approximately $3 billion in reduced oil and gas imports from Russia thanks to
the solar power plants developed by a single developer. Spain has become the world
leader in solar thermal power (CSP) with a capacity of 1 GW in 2012. This represents
65 percent of the total installed CSP capacity in the world. Spain is the only country
where STE (Solar thermal electricity) is “visible” in national statistics, with close to
2% of annual electricity coming from CSP plants according to REE40 (Red Electrica de
Espana, 2014).41 More than three fifths (62.5 %) of the renewable energy produced in
Cyprus during 2012 was from solar energy.
Greece consumes 1,6% of the total EU consumed Energy (19 Mtoes). According to
the Eurostat news release of 13 February 2013, Greece’s energy import dependency is
65,3%, ranking 8th out of 27 EU countries. The Greek energy sector is still largely de-
pendent on fossil fuels, most of which are imported. Until now, Greece does not have
significant proven reserves of hydrocarbons. According to the U.S. Energy Information
Administration (EIA), in 2012, Greece produced only 1670 barrels of crude oil per day,
while consuming 313,240 bpd, heavily impacting the country’s payments for imports.
There is some slight hope for increasing Greek oil production in the near future, as
Greece’s Energean Oil and Gas announced during 2013 a new offshore drilling program
in the Prinos oil field in the northern Aegean Sea, between the island of Thasos and
the city of Kavala on the mainland, hoping to double its production in the area. BP is
buying the crude oil from Prinos for the next 6 years. Two bidding rounds took place re-
cently but exploration works in western Greece are at a very early stage to produce any
results. Greece’s energy mix contains oil and petroleum products (53,2%), solid fuels
(27,8%), natural gas (11,4%), and renewable (7,6%). Lignite accounts for around 50%
of electricity generation. RES currently account for 13.8 % of gross final energy con-
sumption42 and a national target of a 20% share by 2020 has been set for development
of RES installations with the granting of incentives.
Greece has a fast growing solar energy sector. The country ranks 5th in solar PV per
capita worldwide. The photovoltaic industry employs about 20,000 workers, with
half of the direct jobs located in the design and installation of PV systems, and the
other half in the supply, marketing, equipment and services sectors. According to the
Hellenic Association of Photovoltaic Companies (HELAPCO) in January 2013, Greece re-
ported a PV capacity of 1.72 GW. According to the Greek power grid operator (LAGIE),
the country had a 2.070 GW cumulative installed PV capacity at the end of February
40. REE, The Spanish electricity system preliminary report 2014, drafting date: 23 December 2014: http://
www.ree.es/sites/default/files/downloadable/preliminary_report_2014.pdf
41. International Energy Agency, ‘Technology Roadmap Solar Thermal Electricity 2014 edition’: http://
www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/technologyroadmapsolarthermalelectricity_2
014edition.pdf
42. EAA, Country profile - Greece Key climate- and energy-related data - Greece in European
Environmental Policy, May 31, 2014: http://www.eea.europa.eu/themes/climate/ghg-country-profiles/
country-profiles-1

F. MALTEZOU 259
the same year (1.741 GW came from ground-mounted PV projects and 329 MW from
rooftop installations), and by September 2013, the total installed photovoltaic capaci-
ty in Greece had reached 2.520 GW. Photovoltaic energy has seen a significant increase
in capacity over a period of 3 years from 620 MW by the end of 2011 to 2,520 MW in
September 2013 due to very high feed-in tariff levels.
The current national capacity target for photovoltaic energy of 2,200 MW by 2020 has
therefore already been achieved in 2013. Solar energy is playing an increasingly impor-
tant part in the energy mix of Greece. The country has high levels of solar irradiation
with an average global horizontal irradiation level of more than 1,500 kWh/m2. Today,
14,369 mainly small and medium sized PV plants are installed, corresponding to a ca-
pacity of 2,154 MW. In addition, 40,537 small PV systems are installed on rooftops cor-
responding to an additional capacity of approximately 366 ΜW.
Only 6.2% of the total PV capacity is installed on non-interconnected islands.
There are currently no concentrated solar power (CSP) plants installed in Greece. There
are some sites with direct irradiation levels of over 2,000 kWh/m2 / year on the south-
ern Greek islands which could be interesting for CSP. Several projects with a combined
capacity of 424 MW are currently under development. The national target for CSP is
250 MW until 2020.
With around 4.1 million m2 (2.9 GWth gigawatts -thermal) of solar thermal systems in-
stalled, Greece has the second largest total capacity in Europe after Germany43. It also
has a large per capita ratio of installed collector surface of around 243 000 m2.
VII. Renewables in the Middle East
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA region) are both major energy consumers and
will continue to account, alongside Asia, for the majority of the world’s energy de-
mand growth well into the 2030s. The entire energy outlook for the region is changing
rapidly. Among contributing factors, marked increases in energy demand are particu-
larly catalytic: Rising populations, a growing middle class, industry diversification, and
increasing consumerism have turned a number of countries in the Gulf region into ma-
jor energy consumers with related increases in demand for liquid fuels and electricity
for domestic use, heating, cooling, and desalination of water. Based on IEA data, about
20 million people in the MENA region lacked electricity access in 2010, most of them in
rural areas. As a global energy supplier the MENA region accounts for more than half
of the world’s proven crude oil and more than a third of its natural gas reserves. The
Gulf states are some of the biggest oil producers in the world, and make up the biggest
exporting members of OPEC, especially Saudi Arabia. In Saudi Arabia, oil accounts for
over 65 percent of all electricity production, in Kuwait it is 71 percent, in Lebanon it is
43. ‘Solar thermal markets in Europe’ Trends and Market Statistics 2012 June 2013 in cliclavoro.gov.it ht-
tp://www.cliclavoro.gov.it/Progetti/Green_Jobs/Documents/Solar_Thermal_M%20arkets%202012.pdf

260 F. MALTEZOU
94 percent and in Yemen it's an astonishing 100 percent. This represents an inefficient
energy trend and, in the long run, remains unsustainable.
At the same time the MENA region is becoming an ever increasing force in the renewa-
ble energy space. Current signs suggest a significant shift in the region’s diversification
efforts over the next decade, especially in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) coun-
tries. Domestic energy policies will be at the heart of the region’s economic agendas
for the coming decades. Renewable energy is even cited as an opportunity for electric-
ity exports, new value-chain activities, technology transfer, and better environmental
footprints. The potential for solar power in the MENA region is very high and favora-
ble, in comparison with other main markets such as Europe, and North America. The oil
meccas of the UAE and Saudi Arabia are investing in solar to diversify their energy mix
and bring down the cost for services such as electricity production and desalination.
Solar power, with its unrivalled regional climatic advantage, could play a significant
role as a cost-competitive alternative to conventional fossil fuels. This option, over-
looked for decades owing to missing commercial incentives, could offer the region a
valuable energy alternative to fossil fuels in power generation. A robust and efficient
energy balance is needed in order to maintain the high profitability rates and its strong
export outlook.
A very exciting discussion is happening right now in Abu Dhabi, but also in the oth-
er Gulf states. A large focus is placed on the establishment of numerous educational,
training, and research institutions to develop local expertise and technological ca-
pabilities with respect to production, project execution, and innovation capabilities.
People are increasingly aware that renewable represent a growing industry, both for
energy production here and for exports later. Already in 2000, Sheikh Ahmed Zaki
Yamani, former oil minister of Saudi Arabia, during the course of an interview, stated:
‘Thirty years from now there will be a huge amount of oil - and no buyers. Oil will be
left in the ground. The Stone Age came to an end, not because we had a lack of stones,
and the oil age will come to an end not because we have a lack of oil.’44
Dependence on imported petroleum products may seem as an oxymoron for an oil-rich
country but much of its need stems from its reliance on diesel generators for a number
of vital operations such as air conditioning. According to SASIA (the Saudi Arabia Solar
Industry Association), almost 25 percent of the Saudi grid is powered by diesel and the
Kingdom spends over $1 billion on imported diesel. A surge in solar demand would
help solar companies develop economies of scale and boost their position in the global
solar market.
Although the share of solar PV electricity remains relatively modest in the region’s
power-generation mix today, PV is undergoing rapid growth due to its potential and
continuously decreasing technology costs. From 2008 to 2011, the average annual
growth rate of solar PV production was at least 112%. CSP also contributes significant-
44. M. Fagan, ‘Sheikh Yamani predicts price crash as age of oil ends’ in: www.telegraph.co.uk June 25 2000
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1344832/Sheikh-Yamani-predicts-price-crash-as-age-of-oil-
ends.html

F. MALTEZOU 261
ly to the growing share of solar energy in the region. Further proof of Saudi Arabia’s
decision to diversity its energy mix is reflected in its most current decision to invest
in a solar powered desalination plant. The plant, to supply Al Khafji City in the NE of
the country, will produce 60.000 cubic meters of water a day45 providing a regular sup-
ply of water to the region throughout the year. It is due to be commissioned in 2017.
This plant provides further evidence that the country is serious about weaning itself
off diesel domestically. Saudi Arabia currently uses 1.5 million barrels of oil per day for
electricity and the desalination processes which provide 50 to 70 per cent of its drink-
ing water and desalination demand increases rapidly in most of its neighboring coun-
tries.46 According to its developer, this plant will be the world’s first utility scale, solar
powered desalination plant which when compared with conventional desalination
methods, is less expensive, also lowering both costs and emissions. It is anticipated
that if Saudi Arabia continues to rely only on fossil fuels for domestic use, fossil-based
fuel demand could surpass 8 million barrels per day of crude oil equivalent by 2040.47
The growing need for desalination plants made renewable powered desalination a hot
topic at the 2013 World Future Energy Summit in Abu Dhabi.
The biggest resource in MENA is solar irradiance, which is available everywhere in the
region. MENA’s solar energy has a potential 1,000 times larger than its other renew-
able sources combined and is several orders of magnitude larger than the current to-
tal world electricity demand. MENA’s potential energy from solar radiation per square
kilometer per year is equivalent to the amount of energy generated from 1–2 million
barrels of oil.46
Cross-regional electricity trade may be one of the most effective ways to make re-
newable energy investments more profitable and attractive to a growing number of
investors in the MENA region. Cross-regional trade schemes that export electricity
into higher-value markets, such as Europe, also provide access to markets where cur-
rent market prices may already be high enough to support the price of renewables.
The use of solar energy in the region will also free valuable crude oil resources for ex-
port. Security of supplies in the MENA region has not yet been a major focus of policy
concern. In addition, energy subsidies or government-regulated domestic prices for
oil and gas have made energy affordable. The removal of subsidies, reduction in en-
ergy waste and unabated energy consumption in places where energy comes at a value
close to zero to the individual user, could result in substantial economic savings.
Fossil fuels continue to supply the majority of the MENA region’s primary energy
needs, around 98 per cent of the region’s energy mix – a historical pattern closely tied
to the region’s role as a global supplier of oil and natural gas since the 1950s. Given the
international price for both oil and natural gas, the high degree of fossil fuel-reliance
45. G. Parkinson, ‘Saudis to build world’s first large scale solar powered desalination plant’ in: renewecon-
omy.com.au Jan. 22 2015 http://reneweconomy.com.au/2015/saudis-build-worlds-first-large-scale-so-
lar-powered-desalination-plant-82903
46. Renewable Energy Desalination, MENA development report in The World Bank http://water.world-
bank.org/ http://water.worldbank.org/sites/water.worldbank.org/files/publication/water-wpp-Sun-
Powered-Desal-Gateway-Meeting-MENAs-Water-Needs_2.pdf

262 F. MALTEZOU
by the MENA economies, and the comparative locational advantages for solar energy
production in many MENA countries, the economic value of renewables could be ap-
parent on a cost basis even without the dedicated policy tools and subsidies on renew-
able energy which are seen in Europe and North America.
The MENA region’s considerable reliance on oil and gas, as well as its associated focus
on energy intensive industrialization projects that make further use of domestically
produced hydrocarbons, has also left a mark on the region’s carbon footprint, which
has grown dramatically since the 1960s alongside rapid rates of urbanization and ris-
ing living standards. Climate change should also be a cause of concern for national and
regional security. A recent study already describes the influx added to social stresses by
global warming in the Arab world. The Middle East faces a drier and hotter climate as a
result of the climate crisis. A three-year drought began in the early winter of 2006, and
combined with poor water management and economic policies, led to the displace-
ment of 1.5 million people from rural regions to Syria’s crowded western cities, ac-
cording to a study.47 According to Climate change contributed to the severity of this
record-setting drought that led to agricultural collapse in Syria’s breadbasket region,
eventually pushing rural residents into crowded cities during 2011. Climate change
made Syria more vulnerable and, pushed social unrest in that nation across a line in-
to an open uprising in 2011. The United States military describes climate change as a
“threat multiplier” that may lead to greater instability in parts of the world.
Similarly, global warming may not have caused the Arab Spring, but it may have
made it come earlier according to a study conducted by climatologist Colin Kelley.48
According to Kelley’s findings, a drought in North Africa fuelled food price rises ahead
of the Arab Spring. Climate change may have, therefore, played a significant role in
the complex causality of the revolts spreading across the region. If we believe that
this was possible at a time when average global temperatures have risen less than 1C,
higher temperatures may further aggravate an already fragile social and political situ-
ation.
Still, the Arab world could transform the risks posed by climate-change factors into
sustainable economic growth and job-creating opportunities. As stated by David
Michel and Mona Yacoubian of the Stimson Center, “Greening Arab economies by
adopting innovative technologies and forward-leaning government policies can simul-
47. The Guardian, ‘Global warming contributed to Syria’s 2011 uprising, scientists claim’, March 2, 2015:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/mar/02/global-warming-worsened-syria-drought-study
(Note: The study’s lead author is climatologist Colin Kelley, who did the work while working on his PhD
at Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Mark A. Cane is another author of the
study and a scientist at Lamont-Doherty, and Yochanan Kushnir , also at Lamont-Doherty).
48. The Guardian, C. Bennett, ‘Failure to act on climate change means an even bigger refugee crisis, Sept 7
2015: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/sep/07/climate-change-global-warming-refu-
gee-crisis

F. MALTEZOU 263
taneously bolster employment and mitigate environmental risks, turning two of the
region’s preeminent challenges into a significant opportunity.”49
Many MENA countries have already adopted renewable energy targets since the turn
of the century.
There are several ongoing projects in the region.50
The Gulf States
Bahrain: 5% by 2020
Iraq: 2% of electricity generation by 2016
Kuwait: 5% of electricity generation by 2015; 10% by 2020
Oman: 10% of electricity generation by 2020
Qatar: At least 2% of electricity generation from solar energy sources by 2020
Yemen: 15% of electricity generation by 2025
Saudi Arabia: 50% of electricity generation from non – hydrocarbon resources by 2032.
In February 2013, Saudi Arabia released a White Paper detailing the proposed com-
petitive procurement process of its K.A.CARE51 program, which aims to install 41 GW
of solar capacity (PV and CSP) by 2032.
UAE: Thanks to its low latitude and low percentage of cloudy days, the United Arab
Emirates is an ideal location for capturing solar energy.
Dubai is aiming for 5% of electricity by 2030;
Abu Dhabi: 7% of electricity generation capacity by 2020.
The Shams 1 (Shams in Arabic means «Sun») solar power station, a 100 MW
Concentrated Solar Power plant, near Abu Dhabi, is now operational. The US$600
million Shams 1 project is the largest CSP plant outside the United States and Spain
and is expected to be followed by two more stations, Shams 2 and Shams 3. The elec-
49. David Michel and Mona Yacoubian, Sustaining the Spring: Economic Challenges, Environmental Risks,
and Green Growth, in: The Arab Spring and Climate Change: A Climate and Security Correlations
Series viewed May 1, 2015: https://www.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/
ClimateChangeArabSpring.pdf
50. The Future for Renewable Energy in the MENA Region in: http://www.cleanenergypipeline.com/
http://www.cleanenergypipeline.com/Resources/CE/ResearchReports/The%20Future%20for%20
Renewable%20Energy%20in%20the%20MENA%20Region.pdf
51. This is the Saudi agency established in 2010 which is in charge of developing the nation’s renewable
energy sector.

264 F. MALTEZOU
tricity generated by Shams 1 is sufficient to power 20,000 UAE homes.52 The plant is
owned and operated by Shams Power Company, a consortium of Masdar - a subsidiary
of Mubadala Development Company, with the majority of seed capital provided by the
Government of Abu Dhabi, (60%), the Spanish company Abengoa Solar (20%) and the
French petroleum company Total (20%) which is a long-standing partner of Abu Dhabi.53
With the addition of Shams 1, Masdar that was established to develop and manage
Masdar City, is claiming to account for almost 10 percent of the world’s installed CSP
capacity. Aside from producing clean electricity, the Shams 1 power station is helping
Masdar and the overall CSP industry to build knowledge, experience, and human ca-
pacity.54 The plant earns carbon credits under the UN’s Clean Development Mechanism
(CDM). The Shams 1 project effectively displaces about 175,000t of carbon dioxide,
which is equivalent to planting 1.5 million trees or removing 15,000 cars from the
roads of Abu Dhabi.
VIII. Which roles will oil and gas companies play?
Oil companies are a dominant part of our existing energy systems. Will they remain
that way in the future? Oil and gas companies have been dabbling in the renewables
business for a long time. With environmental goals in mind, oil and gas companies are
investing in carbon capture and storage, natural gas generation, energy efficiency, and
nuclear power, with renewables accounting for one strategy among many, and not nec-
essarily the most important. Clearly, oil companies are positioning themselves as bio-
fuels suppliers in addition to many agriculture-based biofuels producers. Over the past
decade, some oil companies have sought to position themselves as future suppliers of
hydrogen from renewables, or have tried to get involved in small-scale solar or bio-
mass projects, but with limited success. Some Big Oil companies such as ExxonMobil
dismissed solar power a long time ago, viewing it as an energy source that wouldn’t
take off.
The chemistry between oil and gas companies and renewables ventures is likely to con-
tinue to ebb and flow with the economics and politics of the times. Yet believing these
52. ‘UAE opens world’s largest solar power plant’, March 17, 2013: http://www.khaleejtimes.
com/kt-article-display-.asp?xfile=data/nationgeneral/2013/march/nationgeneral_march321.
xmlsection=nationgeneral
53. Masdar Partners with Total and Abengoa Solar to build the world’s largest concentrated solar pow-
er plant - See more at: http://www.total.com/en/media/news/press-releases/masdar-partners-total-
and-abengoa-solar-build-worlds-largest-concentrated?%FFbw=kludge1%FF#sthash.ui6r9tW4.dpuf in
www.total.com June 09, 2010: http://www.total.com/en/media/news/press-releases/masdar-partners-
total-and-abengoa-solar-build-worlds-largest-concentrated?%FFbw=kludge1%FF
54. Z. Shahan, ‘Largest Single-Unit Concentrated Solar Power Plant In World – Shams 1 (CT Exclusive)’ in
http://cleantechnica.com, January 18th, 2014 http://cleantechnica.com/2014/01/18/shams-1-largest-
single-unit-csp-plant-1-year-update/ (The Masdar Institute of Science and Technology with its campus
in Masdar City is a graduate-level research university focused on alternative energy, environmental sus-
tainability, and clean technology).

F. MALTEZOU 265
two industries have tremendous opportunity for synergy, Italy’s Eni has built a part-
nership with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) since 2008, which re-
sulted in the founding of the Solar Frontiers Center, in 2010. The center promotes solar
research ranging from materials development to hydrogen production. France’s Total,
which owns a 66% stake in SunPower has quickly grown into a force to be reckoned
with in the solar industry, and a hard to ignore opportunity in the investing world.
Total also owns 20% of the world’s largest operating solar power plant, the Shams 1
facility in Abu Dhabi. The $600m Shams 1 is the first solar farm in the Middle East.
Despite all these initiatives, solar remains an elective for most of these companies, and
does not feature prominently on any big oil income statements. Total buries it in its
marketing and services business segment under a tiny bullet labeled «New Energies».
And why not? It's been a money-loser for a few years, though the loss narrowed con-
siderably in 2013. In fact, some members of Big Oil have decided to bury solar alto-
gether. At the very end of 2011, BP announced that after 40 years, it was dropping its
solar initiative. But, with the news of Google’s enormous investment to bring solar
power into 3,000 homes and even Warren Buffet’s purchase of a $2 billion solar power
farm, BP’s decision is considered by some analysts to be poorly timed, if not extremely
short-sighted. Chevron recently also has retreated from key efforts to produce clean
energy.55
The obvious problem with Big Oil’s participation in the solar industry is that they are
not solar companies; they are oil companies. After all, oil and gas production offers
few synergies. Oil majors know how to increase shareholder value with oil, while com-
panies like SunPower and SolarCity are pure-play solar investments proving it is pos-
sible to succeed in solar, which is likely why some big oil is reluctant to participate,
despite the fact that their key financial partners (institutional shareholders, banks and
insurers) are demanding aggressive carbon management. At the same time SolarCity
(SCTY), the US largest solar developer, comes to the green bond market yet again with
$123.5m of solar asset-backed securities.56
For years, fossil fuel interests have attacked climate scientists and stood against the
legislation to cut carbon pollution. These attacks have intensified in recent years when
new technologies and historically high oil and gas prices across most of the world en-
couraged the oil and gas industry to enter regions previously abandoned, or never ex-
ploited such as exploration in the Arctic.
“Fossil fuel companies have not taken the opportunity to wind down or change their
business models,” according to a recent statement from seven UK-based charitable
foundations, worth a collective £234m, which have decided to sell their fossil fuel in-
vestments on financial and ethical grounds and re-invest the money in green business-
55. Bloomberg, ‘Chevron Dims the Lights on Green Power’, May 29, 2014: http://www.bloomberg.com/
bw/articles/2014-05-29/chevron-dims-the-lights-on-renewable-energy-projects
56. ‘Green Bonds From Terraform Global, SolarCity, and Hannon Armstrong’ in http://www.altenergys-
tocks.com/, Aug 17, 2015.

266 F. MALTEZOU
es.57 “They are now significantly overvalued. The half a trillion dollars spent annually
seeking new reserves will be wasted. The smart investors have already divested from
coal.”58 In its last report, moreover, the International Energy Agency (IEA) claimed that
to have a decent chance of avoiding catastrophic climate change, only half of our exist-
ing proven reserves of oil and gas can be burnt by 2050. To achieve this, they also as-
sume dramatic cuts in global coal use and the deployment of carbon capture technolo-
gies. “No nation is immune, and every nation has a responsibility to do its part” US
President Barack Obama said in his speech at the University of Queensland, Australia,
on 15 November 2014.59
IX. Nothing matches the sun
The sun has always figured at the center of human civilization and development and its
power has been recognized by ancient peoples. Ancient Greek interest in the sun, for
example, transcended religious worship. They were the first to use passive solar design
in their housing. Aeschylus wrote that only primitives and barbarians lacked knowl-
edge of houses turned to face the winter sun. 2400 years ago, community planners
laid out entire cities in Greece and Asia Minor, including the well-documented City of
Priene on the Southeast slope of mount Samsun, to allow every home clear access to
the essential sunlight that warmed their porticos during the winter. Energy conscious
legislation was written to prevent new buildings from blocking solar access to exist-
ing homes. Increasingly, humans are learning how to harness this important resource
and use it to replace other non-sustainable energy sources. In our time, solar energy
production is reaching a critical mass. Solar deployment is not only expanding, but the
pace at which it is growing keeps accelerating.
Solar technologies offer opportunities for positive social impacts, and their environ-
mental burden is small. Solar technologies have low lifecycle greenhouse gas emis-
sions. Quantification of external costs has yielded favorable values compared to fossil
fuel-based energy. Potential areas of concern include recycling and use of toxic materi-
als in manufacturing for PV, water usage for CSP, and energy payback and land require-
ments for both. Some solar projects have faced public concerns regarding land require-
ments for centralized CSP and PV plants, perceptions regarding visual impacts and, for
CSP, cooling water requirements. Land use impacts can be minimized, by selecting ar-
eas with low population density and low environmental sensitivity. Similarly, water
57. The Guardian, ‘Prince Charles on brink of ending all fossil fuel investments’ in: http://www.theguard-
ian.com April 28 2015 http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/apr/28/prince-charles-on-
brink-of-ending-all-fossil-fuel-investments
58. The Guardian, ‘Prince Charles on brink of ending all fossil fuel investments’ in: http://www.theguard-
ian.com April 28 2015 http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/apr/28/prince-charles-on-
brink-of-ending-all-fossil-fuel-investments
59. ‘Barack Obama confronts Australia over climate change’ in www.telegraph.co.uk, Nov 15, 2014: http://
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/barackobama/11232915/Barack-Obama-confronts-Australia-
over-climate-change.html

F. MALTEZOU 267
usage for CSP could be significantly reduced, by using dry cooling approaches. Studies
to date suggest that none of these issues presents a barrier against the widespread use
of solar technologies.
Only a small fraction of the sun’s power output reaches the Earth, but even that ac-
counts for more than 10,000 times of all the commercial energy that we currently pro-
duce and consume. Although the sun doesn’t shine 24 hours a day, it does shine when
we need electricity most. Electricity produced by solar power can be transported over
long distances to demand centers and can also be powered in remote areas where it
is too expensive to extend the electricity grid. Concentrating the sun’s rays requires
reliably clear skies, which are usually found in semi-arid, hot regions. Direct normal ir-
radiance (DNI), is the energy received on a surface tracked perpendicular to the sun's
rays (it can be measured with a pyrheliometer). Good DNI is usually found in arid and
semi-arid areas with reliably clear skies, which typically lay at latitudes from 15° to
40° North or South. Thus, among the most favorable areas for CSP resource are North
Africa, the Middle East, and southernmost parts of Europe such as parts of Greece. Each
country in these areas can use this powerful resource to provide cheap and clean en-
ergy to its people. An important social benefit arises from the implementation of solar
technologies with a great potential to improve the health and livelihood of local popu-
lations, addressing the gap in availability of modern energy services for people who do
not have (cheap or any) access to electricity.
In conclusion, as a source of energy, nothing matches the sun. Most important: this
form of energy provides energy security and reliability: The “fuel” for solar is free for
all of us to use and solar panels cannot be monopolized.

COULD THE SUN COMPETE WITH FOSSIL FUELS IN GREECE AND THE MIDDLE EAST?

COULD THE SUN COMPETE WITH FOSSIL FUELS IN GREECE AND THE MIDDLE EAST?

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