Se ha denunciado esta presentación.
Utilizamos tu perfil de LinkedIn y tus datos de actividad para personalizar los anuncios y mostrarte publicidad más relevante. Puedes cambiar tus preferencias de publicidad en cualquier momento.

Learning curve

1.145 visualizaciones

Publicado el

Profitability of Training

Publicado en: Liderazgo y gestión
  • Sé el primero en comentar

Learning curve

  1. 1. Learning Curve THE PROFITABILITY OF TRAINING 1/2/2017 FRANCISCO GUTIERREZ
  2. 2. Learning Curve Concept In the 70's the Boston Consulting Group BCG applied the concept to the strategic direction of companies, Showing: •It is associated with human activities. There are fears of the substitution of human activity by machines. Unless the machines develop artificial intelligence, a fully automated plant will have a continuous production close to design capacity. How explain that in 1951 the US design capacity of "fluid catalytic cracking" was 1.2 million barrels a day, but the real production was a third higher (1.6 million)?. •It is transferable. If a systematic method of preserve experience and transmitting it to staff is developed, the learning curve accelerates, particularly in the case of soft technologies (where knowledge prevails over physical activities) 1/2/2017 FRANCISCO GUTIERREZ
  3. 3. Learning Curve in Refinery (Hard industry) In previous slide we said “in 1951 the real production capacity of the FCC units exceeded by a third the design capacity”. (see Profit from the Learning Curve by Winfred B. Hirschmann Harvard Business Review FROM THE JANUARY 1964 ISSUE) If the learning curve is the cause, there should be a relationship between the productivity of the facilities and the experience (in this case the age of the facilities) 1/2/2017 FRANCISCO GUTIERREZ
  4. 4. Learning Curve in Refinery (Hard industry) The longer time an unit is operated, the greater profit is obtained. In fact, a learning curve of 90% was detected (every time that the processed barrels are doubled, costs are reduced to 90%) 1/2/2017 FRANCISCO GUTIERREZ
  5. 5. Using Learning Curve If the experience can be transferred, what must be done to get benefit in starting operations for a new unit? How to achieve profits as soon as possible? Base case without transfer of external experience, the benefits are seen after one year (55.000.000,00) (45.000.000,00) (35.000.000,00) (25.000.000,00) (15.000.000,00) (5.000.000,00) 5.000.000,00 15.000.000,00 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Accumulated benefit VS Months 1/2/2017 FRANCISCO GUTIERREZ
  6. 6. Using Learning Curve Developing a model where we assume that the personnel, under a training plan assisted with senior operators (with tangible experience in similar plants to the new unit), instead start their operations from zero, they will start with only the equivalent of one month of experience (From the beginning of operations, initiate their activities with knowledge that would have required a month of work by the traditional method of trial and error) 1/2/2017 FRANCISCO GUTIERREZ
  7. 7. Using Learning Curve Of course, the unit works with benefits (lowest point of the curve) a month before. But the substantial difference is that the accumulated losses are much lower and the accumulated benefit appears 4 months earlier? (55.000.000,00) (45.000.000,00) (35.000.000,00) (25.000.000,00) (15.000.000,00) (5.000.000,00) 5.000.000,00 15.000.000,00 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Accumulated benefit VS Months (45.000.000,00) (35.000.000,00) (25.000.000,00) (15.000.000,00) (5.000.000,00) 5.000.000,00 15.000.000,00 25.000.000,00 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Accumulated benefit VS Months 1/2/2017 FRANCISCO GUTIERREZ
  8. 8. Using Learning Curve How much would we be willing to invest for having in the first year 20 million dollars accumulated VS nothing? (45.000.000,00) (35.000.000,00) (25.000.000,00) (15.000.000,00) (5.000.000,00) 5.000.000,00 15.000.000,00 25.000.000,00 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Accumulated benefit VS Months 1/2/2017 FRANCISCO GUTIERREZ

×