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Bruce Campbell - La Peste Negra del siglo XIX: una reinterpretación

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Bruce Campbell - La Peste Negra del siglo XIX: una reinterpretación

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El 6 de mayo de 2015, la Fundación Ramón Areces celebró una nueva conferencia del ciclo 'Guerras, catástrofes, crisis: lecciones de Historia económica'. En esta ocasión, el profesor Bruce M. S. Campbell, de la Queen’s University, habló sobre 'La Peste Negra del siglo XIV: una reinterpretación'. Este ciclo está organizado en colaboración con el Instituto Figuerola de Historia y Ciencias Sociales de la Universidad Carlos III de Madrid.

El 6 de mayo de 2015, la Fundación Ramón Areces celebró una nueva conferencia del ciclo 'Guerras, catástrofes, crisis: lecciones de Historia económica'. En esta ocasión, el profesor Bruce M. S. Campbell, de la Queen’s University, habló sobre 'La Peste Negra del siglo XIV: una reinterpretación'. Este ciclo está organizado en colaboración con el Instituto Figuerola de Historia y Ciencias Sociales de la Universidad Carlos III de Madrid.

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Bruce Campbell - La Peste Negra del siglo XIX: una reinterpretación

  1. 1. New light on the Black Death Bruce M. S. Campbell Professor of Medieval Economic History, The Queen’s University of Belfast b.m.campbell@qub.ac.uk The plague in TournaiThe plague in Tournai London plague burialsLondon plague burials Y. Pestis phylogenetic tree Fundación Ramón Areces
  2. 2. Today, plague is a global disease with 1,000-2,000 cases a year reported to the World Health Organisation. Plague cases and deaths are both greatest in sub- Saharan Africa. WORLD NEWS (August 2013): 15-year old herdsman dies of plague in Krygyzstan. WORLD NEWS (January 2015): 40 plague deaths in 2014 in Madagascar! WORLD NEWS (July 2014): Chinese city of Yumen sealed off after a mancontracts plague from an infected marmotand dies.
  3. 3. Today, plague is a global disease with 1,000-2,000 cases a year reported to the World Health Organisation. Plague cases and deaths are both greatest in sub- Saharan Africa. Fear of plague derives from history’s 3 great pandemics: AD 541: First Pandemic (Justinianic Plague) – devastated the Byzantine Empire. 1346: Second Pandemic (Black Death) – spread throughout the Known World and killed 30%-40% of a European population of c.80 million (24- 32m.). 1855: Third Pandemic – broke out in Yunnan Province of China; spread worldwide; the first to be medically analysed and diagnosed.
  4. 4. The impact of the Black Death and its sequel plagues upon European populations was massive and long lasting:
  5. 5. Economic output also contracted almost everywhere, as plague killed both producers and consumers:
  6. 6. Decades Indexed GDP per head In terms of GDP per head, loss of numbers proved to be beneficial for England and Holland, a mixed blessing for Italy, and a significant setback for Spain:
  7. 7. In England the sudden scarcity of labour triggered the single greatest inflation in labourers’ daily wage rates on historical record.
  8. 8. In Siena work on the vast new nave being added to the cathedral of Santa Maria Assunta was abandoned and never resumed.
  9. 9. In Siena work on the vast new nave being added to the cathedral of Santa Maria Assunta was abandoned and never resumed. In neighbouring Florence, work on Giotto’s new Campanile was suspended at the second stage and only resumed after an interval of 10 years.
  10. 10. Irish English Across Europe woodland regenerated as: Construction activity almost ceased. Farmland was abandoned.
  11. 11. Epidemiologically, demographically, environmentally, economically and culturally, the Black Death was a watershed historical event. What disease was it?
  12. 12. The list of suspects has included:  bubonic plague (Shrewsbury, 1971, and many others)  anthrax (Twigg, 1984)  a viral haemorrhagic fever (Scott & Duncan, 2001)  a now extinct disease (Cohn, 2002)  biological fallout from an extra- terrestrial impact in Jan. 1348 (Baillie, 2006)  something else entirely . . . . .
  13. 13. PNAS Proceedings of theNationalAcademyof Sciences of theUnitedStates of America November2000, Volume 97, no. 23, pp. 12800- 12803. Claimed to have identified the DNA of Yersinia pestis (bubonic plague) in the dental pulp of medieval plague burials at Montpellier in southern France. impreciseimprecise contaminated contaminated unrepresentative unrepresentative The firstforensi c evidenc e
  14. 14. October 7, 2010 STOP PRESS aDNA analysis proves the Black Death was vector-borne Yersinia Pestis after all!
  15. 15. Since 2010 confirmation that the Blackconfirmation that the Black Death was indeed bubonic plague, i.e.bubonic plague, i.e. Yersinia pestis, has come from aDNA analysis of dental remains from datable 14th -century plague burials in 5 Western European countries: 1.1. France (France (Saint Laurent-de-la-CabrerisseSaint Laurent-de-la-Cabrerisse)) 2.2. Italy (Italy (Parma & VeniceParma & Venice)) 3.3. Southern Germany (Southern Germany (AugsburgAugsburg)) 4.4. The Netherlands (The Netherlands (Bergen op ZoomBergen op Zoom)) 5.5. England (England (Hereford and East Smithfield, LondonHereford and East Smithfield, London).). A Rapid Diagnostic Test has yieldedA Rapid Diagnostic Test has yielded complementary results.complementary results. Crucially,Crucially, these aDNA results have been obtained in separate laboratories by
  16. 16. Meanwhile, a 23-strong team of biologists & geneticists has reconstructed the Yersinia pestis phylogenetic tree: Giovanna MorelliGiovanna Morelli and 22 others (2010), ‘Yersinia pestis genome sequencingsequencing identifies patterns of global phylogenetic diversity’, Nature Genetics 42 (12), 1140-43.
  17. 17. This has since been amplified and redefined in a key paper by Yujun Cui and 32 others to show where the Black Death genomes fit in: ‘PopulationPopulation structure of Y. pestis revealed by core genome SNP analysis’, PNAS 110 (2), 2013, 577-82.
  18. 18. Genetic reconstruction has yielded the following key conclusions: 1.Y. pestis evolves clonally; small mutations differentiate plague’s different branches (polytomies) and strains. 2.Fresh polytomies are prone to emerge during major epizootics/panzootics. 3.Almost all strains are capable of infecting and killing humans. 4.There is nothing to suggest that the genomes responsible for the Black Death were more dangerous than any others. 5.The 1st and 2nd Pandemics arose from different crossovers of the pathogen from animals to humans.
  19. 19. Genetic reconstruction has yielded the following key conclusions: 6.The plague genome embodies its own evolutionary history and pattern of spread. 7.Individual strains tend to be country-specific. 8.Regions where plague has existed longest tend to exhibit the greatest genomic diversity and the presence of the earliest genotypes.
  20. 20. Genetic reconstruction has yielded the following key conclusions: 6.The plague genome embodies its own evolutionary history and pattern of spread. 7.Individual strains tend to be country-specific. 8.Regions where plague has existed longest tend to exhibit the greatest genomic diversity and the presence of the earliest genotypes. 9.Geographically, the semi-arid Qinghai-Tibet Plateau of Western China appears to have been the ultimate origin of the Black Death. The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau of Western ChinaThe Qinghai-Tibet Plateau of Western China
  21. 21. Genetic reconstruction has yielded the following key conclusions: 6.The plague genome embodies its own evolutionary history and pattern of spread. 7.Individual strains tend to be country-specific. 8.Regions where plague has existed longest tend to exhibit the greatest genomic diversity and the presence of the earliest genotypes. 9.Geographically, the semi-arid Qinghai-Tibet Plateau of Western China appears to have been the ultimate origin of the Black Death. 10.Temporally, the Black Death genome emerged during a biological ‘big bang’ shortly after 1268 (Cui and others, 2013) or 1282 (Bos and others, 2011). c.1268/1282
  22. 22. Qinghai-Tibet is oneQinghai-Tibet is one of several regionsof several regions where permanentwhere permanent (enzootic) reservoirs(enzootic) reservoirs of plague existof plague exist among ground-among ground- burrowing andburrowing and hibernating sylvatichibernating sylvatic rodents, in this caserodents, in this case great gerbils :great gerbils :
  23. 23. The plagueThe plague cycle:cycle: TheThe transformation oftransformation of plague from anplague from an enzootic diseaseenzootic disease amongamong maintenancemaintenance hosts of wild-hosts of wild- rodents to a fast-rodents to a fast- spreading andspreading and deadly humandeadly human pandemicpandemic entailed at least
  24. 24. The plagueThe plague cycle:cycle: Stage 1 –Stage 1 – enzooticenzootic plague 1
  25. 25. 2 The plagueThe plague cycle:cycle: Stage 2 –Stage 2 – epizooticepizootic plague
  26. 26. 3 The plagueThe plague cycle:cycle: Stage 3 –Stage 3 – panzooticpanzootic plague
  27. 27. 4 The plagueThe plague cycle:cycle: Stage 4 –Stage 4 – ZoonoticZoonotic Givry (Burgundy), 1348 Penrith (N England), 1597-9
  28. 28. 5 The plagueThe plague cycle:cycle: Stage 5 –Stage 5 – PandemicPandemic
  29. 29. The plagueThe plague cycle:cycle: Historically,Historically, climaticclimatic conditions in Aridconditions in Arid Central Asia haveCentral Asia have exercised aexercised a powerfulpowerful influence uponinfluence upon the incidence ofthe incidence of plague, eitherplague, either lowering orlowering or raising the risksraising the risks of enzooticof enzootic plague becomingplague becoming
  30. 30. The Oslo plague team led by Nils Chr. StensethThe Oslo plague team led by Nils Chr. Stenseth has investigated and established a link betweenhas investigated and established a link between climate, gerbil populations, and outbreaks ofclimate, gerbil populations, and outbreaks of Yersinia pestisYersinia pestis in the water-limited steppein the water-limited steppe grasslands of southern Kazakhstan:grasslands of southern Kazakhstan:
  31. 31. Drought lowered the risks of plague outbreaks byDrought lowered the risks of plague outbreaks by depressing biomass output, food availability, and gerbildepressing biomass output, food availability, and gerbil populations and, at the same time, inhibiting flea activity.populations and, at the same time, inhibiting flea activity. These were the conditions that prevailed in Arid CentralThese were the conditions that prevailed in Arid Central Asia throughout the Medieval Solar Maximum betweenAsia throughout the Medieval Solar Maximum between the end of the 1the end of the 1stst Pandemic in the the 8Pandemic in the the 8thth century andcentury and start of the 2start of the 2ndnd Pandemic in the 14Pandemic in the 14thth century.century.
  32. 32. Drought lowered the risks of plague outbreaks byDrought lowered the risks of plague outbreaks by depressing biomass output, food availability, and gerbildepressing biomass output, food availability, and gerbil populations and, at the same time, inhibiting flea activity.populations and, at the same time, inhibiting flea activity. These were the conditions that prevailed in Arid CentralThese were the conditions that prevailed in Arid Central Asia throughout the Medieval Solar Maximum betweenAsia throughout the Medieval Solar Maximum between the end of the 1the end of the 1stst Pandemic in the the 8Pandemic in the the 8thth century andcentury and start of the 2start of the 2ndnd Pandemic in the 14Pandemic in the 14thth century.century. Increasing aridityIncreasing aridity
  33. 33. Onset of pluvial conditions increased the risks of plagueOnset of pluvial conditions increased the risks of plague outbreaks by raising biomass output, food availability,outbreaks by raising biomass output, food availability, and gerbil populations and, at the same time, stimulatingand gerbil populations and, at the same time, stimulating flea activity.flea activity. These were the conditions that prevailed in Arid CentralThese were the conditions that prevailed in Arid Central Asia following onset of the Wolf Solar Minimum andAsia following onset of the Wolf Solar Minimum and especially from the 14especially from the 14thth century as part of a globalcentury as part of a global reorganization of atmospheric circulation.reorganization of atmospheric circulation. Increasing humidity Increasing humidity
  34. 34. Changes in atmospheric circulation across inner Eurasia
  35. 35. Changes in atmospheric circulation across inner Eurasia
  36. 36. Strong Westerlies Weak Westerlies Changes in atmospheric circulation across inner Eurasia
  37. 37. Parallel changes were taking place in the strength of the South Asian Monsoon: Strong monsoon Weakening monsoon Mega drought
  38. 38. Weak Westerlies Plague’s reactivation from an enzootic to an epizootic state sometime after 1268/1282 coincided with an episode of global climate reorganisation:
  39. 39. Dendrochronologies from Central Asia bring this episode into sharper focus:
  40. 40. Dendrochronologies from Central Asia bring this episode into sharper focus:
  41. 41. Dendrochronologies from Central Asia bring this episode into sharper focus:
  42. 42. Dendrochronologies from Central Asia bring this episode into sharper focus:
  43. 43. Ecological stress in Arid Central Asia, generated by increased climatic instability, appears to have ignited the epizootic that led to the Black Death.
  44. 44. W. EuropeW. Europe Christakos, Olea &Christakos, Olea & Hwa-Lung (2007)Hwa-Lung (2007) c.c.1½-6 kms per day1½-6 kms per day Qinghai / Tibet?Qinghai / Tibet? Kipchak Khanate / Golden Horde Kipchak Khanate / Golden Horde Messina, SicilyMessina, Sicily Issyk-Kul, Kirghizia Issyk-Kul, Kirghizia 13461346 13471347 1338/91338/9 1290s?1290s? c.40 yearsc.40 years 2,000 kms2,000 kms c.1 km per weekc.1 km per week c.7 yearsc.7 years 4,000 kms4,000 kms c.c.1½ kms per day1½ kms per day The speed of the Black Death’s spread implies thatThe speed of the Black Death’s spread implies that humans must in some way have been complicit in itshumans must in some way have been complicit in its dissemination.dissemination.
  45. 45. The Catalan World Atlas, 1375:The Catalan World Atlas, 1375: ““the intensification of over-land caravanthe intensification of over-land caravan movement across Asia that reached its climaxmovement across Asia that reached its climax under the Mongol empires ..... affected bothunder the Mongol empires ..... affected both macro- and micro-parasitic patterns in far-macro- and micro-parasitic patterns in far-
  46. 46. The World-system of commerce c.1300 according to Janet Abu-Lughod, 1989. Traders and travellers were material to the relentless westwardTraders and travellers were material to the relentless westward spread of the pathogen, its vectors and hosts, until the Genoesespread of the pathogen, its vectors and hosts, until the Genoese port of Kaffa in the Crimea was reached in 1346.port of Kaffa in the Crimea was reached in 1346.
  47. 47. “In the same year [1346], God’s punishment struck the people in the eastern lands, in the town Ornach [on the estuary of the R. Don], and in Khastorokan, and in Sarai, and in Bezdeh, and in other towns in those lands; the mortality was great ..... so that they could not bury them” (Benedictow, 2004) Gabriele de Mussis, Michele da Piazza, Nicephoros Gregoras, Emperor John VI & Ibn al-Wardi: Spring 1346: plague first surfaced in the lands of the Kipchak Khanate of the Golden Horde.
  48. 48. The Black Death - some fresh insights from recent research: 1. The Black Death WAS Yersinia pestis. 2. Its geographical origin was the semi-arid Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in Western China, where its maintenance hosts were wild gerbils and marmots. 3. Its biological re-activation from a dormant enzootic state to a more virulent epizootic state occurred during the closing decades of the 13th century. 4. This vital biological transformation took place under conditions of mounting ecological stress generated by the alternation of drought and pluvial events, as global patterns of atmospheric circulation de-stabilized and changed.
  49. 49. The Black Death - some fresh insights from recent research: 5. Traders and travellers were instrumental in aiding and abetting plague’s westward spread across the interior of Eurasia. 6. Genoese mariners performed the same function once plague reached the Black Sea coast and had crossed over and infected commensal rodents (i.e. black rats). 7. In Europe, poverty, over crowding, high levels of commercial activity, war, harvest failure and unusually humid weather conditions combined to ensure that the Black Death’s spread was rapid and its mortality heavy. 8. Further changes in plague’s hosts and vectors may have added momentum and reach to the disease’s
  50. 50. The Black Death - some fresh insights from recent research: 9. The Black Death was the product of a unique conjuncture of biological, climatic and human developments.
  51. 51. The Black Death - some fresh insights from recent research: 10.The fate of medieval Europeans was intimately bound up with environ- mental developments taking place 6,000 kilometres to the east, in the semi-arid and sparsely populated interior of Central Asia.
  52. 52. EL FINEL FIN

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