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Global Voting Trends - Parliamentary systems

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This presentation analyzes global voting trends in parliamentary systems worldwide

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GLOBAL VOTING TRENDS
WAPOR 70th Annual Conference Lisbon, 16 July 2017
Sara Morais, Narciso Michavila PhD,
Analysis of Parliamentary Elections
Fragmentation
• Fragmentation is a global voting trend in most of parliamentary systems.
• The support to the main party has decreased from 45% to 34% in seventy years. Only France has
remained stable.
Source: Own analysis of ParlGov database.
% valid vote obtained by the Governement party (Parliamentary Elections)
Fragmentation
35,6
36,2
31,9 31,7
30,0 30,0
26,8
20,0
22,0
24,0
26,0
28,0
30,0
32,0
34,0
36,0
38,0
1979 1984 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014
Maximum support in European Elections (median of countries)
• Support to the main party in European Elections has reached its minimum in the last election
processes.
Source: Own analysis of ParlGov database.
Fragmentation: extreme right parties
• Extreme right parties have gained support in the last years.
• Although in most of the countries those parties were not new options, they have contributed to
polarize election behaviour.
%Valid vote to the extrem right parties
Source: Own analysis of ParlGov database.
The populist tide is going down
• European extreme right parties increased their support during the refugee crisis.
• Last year they seemed to increase their support but currently their losing support.
Source: own analysis from published polls gathered in different Wikipedia pages. Data checked.
%Valid vote to the extrem right parties
Volatility and finantial crisis
Source: Dataset of Electoral Volatility and its internal components in Western Europe (1945-2016) Vincenzo Emanuele
• The volatility between one election and the previous increased a lot during the economic crisis,
especially in the countries with high risk of financial intervention: Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Greece,
Spain and Portugal.
Volatility by country and election

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Global Voting Trends - Parliamentary systems

  • 1. GLOBAL VOTING TRENDS WAPOR 70th Annual Conference Lisbon, 16 July 2017 Sara Morais, Narciso Michavila PhD, Analysis of Parliamentary Elections
  • 2. Fragmentation • Fragmentation is a global voting trend in most of parliamentary systems. • The support to the main party has decreased from 45% to 34% in seventy years. Only France has remained stable. Source: Own analysis of ParlGov database. % valid vote obtained by the Governement party (Parliamentary Elections)
  • 3. Fragmentation 35,6 36,2 31,9 31,7 30,0 30,0 26,8 20,0 22,0 24,0 26,0 28,0 30,0 32,0 34,0 36,0 38,0 1979 1984 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 Maximum support in European Elections (median of countries) • Support to the main party in European Elections has reached its minimum in the last election processes. Source: Own analysis of ParlGov database.
  • 4. Fragmentation: extreme right parties • Extreme right parties have gained support in the last years. • Although in most of the countries those parties were not new options, they have contributed to polarize election behaviour. %Valid vote to the extrem right parties Source: Own analysis of ParlGov database.
  • 5. The populist tide is going down • European extreme right parties increased their support during the refugee crisis. • Last year they seemed to increase their support but currently their losing support. Source: own analysis from published polls gathered in different Wikipedia pages. Data checked. %Valid vote to the extrem right parties
  • 6. Volatility and finantial crisis Source: Dataset of Electoral Volatility and its internal components in Western Europe (1945-2016) Vincenzo Emanuele • The volatility between one election and the previous increased a lot during the economic crisis, especially in the countries with high risk of financial intervention: Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain and Portugal. Volatility by country and election
  • 7. Fragmentation: Volatility Source: Dataset of Electoral Volatility and its internal components in Western Europe (1945-2016) Vincenzo Emanuele • Volatility occurs mainly among the existing parties and in those countries with a risky financial situation. • Before the economic crisis, there were no differences between countries. Volatility in existing and new parties by year and country Before Economic Crisis After Economic Crisis
  • 8. Fragmentation: Volatility and election repetition Source: Dataset of Electoral Volatility and its internal components in Western Europe (1945-2016) Vincenzo Emanuele • The first elections held after the start of the economic crisis produced that at least half of the voters changed their voting decision, as it happened in Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy and Spain. • In the elections held in the following years, volatility has registered stable records (except in Ireland). Volatility by country and election
  • 9. Fragmentation: last minute decision 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 35,0 26-oct 27-oct 28-oct 29-oct 30-oct 2-nov 3-nov 4-nov 5-nov 6-nov 10-nov 11-nov 12-nov 13-nov 16-nov 17-nov 18-nov 19-nov 20-nov 23-nov 24-nov 25-nov 26-nov 27-nov 1-dic 2-dic 3-dic 4-dic 8-dic 9-dic 10-dic 11-dic 12-dic 15-dic 16-dic 17-dic 18-dic 19-dic GAD3 Estimations for General Elections in Spain PP PSOE Podemos Ciudadanos IU CDC ERC PNV Source: GAD3 tracking General Election 2015 (October-December). • Fragmentation has also influenced how voters make their choice. With a greater number of parties voting decision become more volatile. • In Spain, most of the voting changes occurred in the last 5 days before the elections, especially among the new parties.
  • 10. Fragmentation: Last minute decision 0,7 1,7 1,4 1,4 1,9 2,3 1,9 1,8 1,7 1,8 1,7 0,5 1,5 1,3 1,2 0,8 2,2 2,1 1,7 1,2 1,8 1,7 0,4 0,2 0,8 0,5 0,9 0,8 1,6 0,6 1,4 0,3 0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 Greece UK Greece Portugal Canada Spain Israel Spain Netherlands France UK 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2016 2017 2017 2017 Average distance between polls and election results Pre 20 days Last estimation Exit polls • Exit polls have shown greater accuracy than pre-electoral polls in all elections, as they are able to measure last minute changes. • In case of electoral repetition, the polls are less accurate. This was the case of Greece and Spain. Source: own elaboration from elections results web pages and Poll Base (by Mark Pack). The criteria for the distance is: absolute difference from the estimation (without DA/DK) of the % of valid vote to the final results of the 6 main parties. In the cases of Israel , UK and Netherlands the % of votes have been calculated from the seats estimations.