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Global Voting Trends - Referendums

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This presentation analyzes global voting trends in referendums worldwide

Publicado en: Noticias y política
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Global Voting Trends - Referendums

  1. 1. GLOBAL VOTING TRENDS Analysis of Referendums WAPOR 70th Annual Conference Lisbon, 16 July 2017 Narciso Michavila PhD
  2. 2. Lower turnout Source: own analysis of C2D referendum database. (1900-2015; n=555) • Turnout in referendums (only those held in all the country) around the globe was higher than 80 percent in half of the cases before the fall of the Iron Curtain. • In the 90´s, turnout fell to 70% as median. In the current century, the implication of electorates in popular plebiscites is decreasing, mainly in Western countries. • At the same time, in referendums with a NO or YES answer, the affirmative option is going down.
  3. 3. Volatility in the Greek bailout referendum • The Greek bailout referendum in July 2015 was announced one week before it took place. The first surveys anticipated wide support to the government’s proposal of rejecting the agreement with the Troika. However, when the banks closed, daily poll trackings started to change. • It was impossible for the Greek institutes to organize exit polls in just a week, so all the estimations given once the polling stations closed came from their CATI previous surveys. Source: own analysis from published polls.
  4. 4. Volatility in the BREXIT • The possibility of a Leave victory was anticipated by the polls, especially by those carried out online. In fact, two weeks before voting, BREXIT was the most likely referendum outcome. But the mood changed after the assassination of the Labour MP Joe Cox, towards a radical pro Brexit support, despite giving the false impression of a Remain victory. • The recent book Brexit: Why Britain Voted to Leave the European Union, by Clarke, Goodwin & Whiteley, explains deeply the changes and motivations of the British electorate. Source: own analysis from published polls.
  5. 5. A too close to call BREXIT result • In any case, the real probability for BREXIT, according to the last published polls (excluding an outlier of an institute working for the Remain campaign), was 48%: TOO CLOSE TO CALL! • BREXIT is not an exception: in Bolivia, Turkey and Colombia the result was also very close. Source: own analysis from published polls. UK Turkey Colombia
  6. 6. Voting against the system Country Date Issue Polls Results Turnout Gover. Turkey 16-Apr-17 Const. reform Yes 54% Yes 51,4% 85% Win Italy 4-Dec-16 Const. reform No 56% No 59% 65% Lose Colombia 2-Oct-16 Peace Agreement Yes 59% No 50,2% 37% Lose Hungary 2-Oct-16 Refugee quotas No 95% No 98% 44% Win UK 23-Jun-16 EU permanency Remain 51% Lea. 51,9% 72% Lose Netherlands 6-Apr-16 EU- Ukraine agree. No 59% No 61% 32% Lose New Zealand 3-Mar-16 New flag No 66% No 57% 67% Lose Bolivia 21-Feb-16 Mandate Extension No 51% No 51% 87% Lose Denmark 3-Dec-15 Integration in EU No 52% No 53% 72% Lose Hamburg (GE) 30-Nov-15 Olympics 2024 Yes 60% No 52% 51% Lose Greece 7-May-15 Bailout No 51% No 61% 59% Win • There is a global pattern in current referendums: the majority vote against the proposal of the government with the exception of Greece and Hungary, where they voted against Brussels. • The LeDuc law -the increasing support for the status quo along the campaign- seems to be history. • The threat against the challenging option does not work any more. • Polls were able to anticipate the results in 7 out of 10 cases.
  7. 7. Polarization: referendums & elections • The debates on independence referendums initially increase the support for the parties advocating for breaking ties, since they change the political framing. • However, the debate on independence loses interest as time goes by due to the deep social fracture it produces. • The promise of a second referendum reduced support for the pro independence parties. Source: own analysis from official results.
  8. 8. Ideological polarization • Motivation in referendum votes is better explained by ideological reasons than by the real question asked. • In the Colombian plebiscite, for instance, the vote was correlated with the vote in presidential elections, not with terrorist attacks. Source: own analysis from published polls.
  9. 9. Simplification • Reasons for the failure of the surveys in Colombian Plebiscite? An elite vision of the peace agreement, low turnout, ban of surveys 5 days before, no exit polls… • The impression of the failure of the surveys is always greater abroad: foreign media has to provide a more simple vision of the political debates and rarely catch the last movements of the electorate. 1.046 870 1.700 3.218 1.456 05-sep. 06-sep. 07-sep. 08-sep. 09-sep. 10-sep. 11-sep. 12-sep. 13-sep. 14-sep. 15-sep. 16-sep. 17-sep. 18-sep. 19-sep. 20-sep. 21-sep. 22-sep. 23-sep. 24-sep. 25-sep. 26-sep. 27-sep. 28-sep. 29-sep. 30-sep. 01-oct. 02-oct. 03-oct. 04-oct. Evolution of the number of pieces of written news about the Colombian Plebiscite in 2015 News mentioning polls News on the referendum Source: own analysis from Factiva database (WSJ).