A summary of Terry Cannon ideas on Climate Change, shocks, resilience and social adaptation.

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Summary of the guest lecture given by
Dr. Terry Cannon
By Gert De Schutter, 3/03/2014
Dr. Terry Cannon is a geographer with a background in natural hazards and co-author of the book ‘At Risk:
Natural Hazards, people’s vulnerability and disasters’, but his focus has expanded towards climate change.
Dr. Cannon teaches at Kings College London and the Institute of Development Studies.
In this guest lecture Dr. Cannon in a first part summarises the scientific knowledge about climate change and
the impacts. In the second part he introduces us to concepts of vulnerability and resilience.
Part 1: Introduction to climate change and development
Climate Science
In the first part Dr. Terry Cannon summarises the scientific facts about climate change, to which he refers to as
“collective knowledge everybody should have.” He explains that climate change will forces us to take measures
of mitigation (reduction of greenhouse gas emissions) and of adaptation, since climate will continue to change
even if all greenhouse gas emissions are ceased instantly:
- by 2050 the average temperature will rise at least 2°C compared to 1900.
-Today, the temperature has already risen 0.7°C.
We will have to adapt. The burden is unevenly distributed in the world.
The major anthropogenic sources of greenhouse gases
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(GHG’s) are:
* Agriculture: - irrigation  methane from standing water
- livestock (ruminants)  methane from digestive system of cows
- fertilisers  NOx
- deforestation  CO2
*Fossil Fuel burning for energy and transport
*Human induced natural sources: natural stocks which get mobilised because of anthropogenic warming,
e.g. melting of methane holding permafrost
An important feature of the climate system is albedo (the amount of radiation reflected by earth’s surfaces and
clouds). This is especially very important for the arctic region, since loss of ice and snow contributes to further
(local) warming.
Mitigation basically can happen by making savings (reducing energy use) or by changing to renewable sources.
A key actor involved in reacting to climate change is the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, “the
most important organisation of the world” according to Dr. Cannon, “because it has to get things right”.
According to the world bank temperature could rise with 4°C, other reports mention temperature rises of 6°C.
Our systems do not work in those conditions, and if the systems don’t work, we all die.
Other actors involved are the Conferences of Parties (COPs), REDD, Loss&Damage and the IPCC.
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Dr. Cannon does not like this term, because a greenhouse is an unknown concept in most parts of the world.
He prefers the term ‘blanket gas’ and he is “on a one-man-mission” to promote the use of this word.

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The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) is set up by the UNFCCC. The IPCC summarises the
scientific literature on climate change, producing Assessment Reports in three parts: Science, Adaption and
Mitigation. The science parts of the fifth assessment report is made public last year. Other parts will follow this
year.
There are however some problems in responding to climate change:
* the ‘scare-story’ makes people emotionally close down and rationalise the threat: “we’ll be fine, we survived
earlier crises...”
* Politicians do not take the science seriously, because of the constraints of their role in managing their states
and because of lobbying.
* There is no framework after Kyoto, which ends next year. The US was even not involved in the protocol,
causing Canada and Australia to back down as well.
*Climate deniers say that current climate change is natural change. However:
- the warming effect of CO2 is proven.
- the increase of atmospheric CO2 (+30%) is consistent with the amount of fossil fuel we have burned.
Climate projections happen based on scenario’s, taking in account variation in population growth, income
(in)equality, fuel sources, type of development, ...
The projections range from an average temperature rise of 2°C to 6°C, with relatively wide estimation ranges,
mainly because of uncertainty about the effect of clouds. Average temperatures however are not an ideal
measure, because local warming can be stronger: e.g. 3-5°C rise in the Arctic in the low scenario.
Impacts of climate change
There are 4 major impacts according to Dr. Cannon, each of which needs a different form of adaptation.
1. Climate shocks – not everyone will get affected e.g. extreme events
Q&A – concise summary
Q: In your video (see blog) you focus on the supply side of fossil fuels – the oil companies, but what
about the focus on the demand side?
A: There are about 200 major fossil fuel companies. It’s easier to convince those 200 than to convince
6 billion people. If we put a carbon tax on exploitation, we can shift the market (price advantage for
renewable energy). In some countries the unit price of solar energy is already close to that of fossil
fuel.
Q: How can poor people contribute to mitigation of climate change? Because most technology is
quite expensive.
A: Poor people do not contribute much. E.g. 50%-60% of rural population of India do not make use of
fossil fuel electricity (no access). Mitigation is not the priority in poor countries. Adaption however will
have to happen everywhere.
Q: do you expect a new climate deal by the policy institutions?
A: I’m very pessimistic about that. Even a lot of intelligent people are not easily convinced of the
urgency of the matter.
Q: Is fracking – often in the media – a solution?
A: It’s bad, because it is a fossil fuel. It might lower the prices of energy, but it does not lead to a
decrease in use of other polluting fossil fuels. E.g. the consumption of coal in the USA has gone down,
but the coal is exported to other places where it is burned. You’re just giving cheap coal to China.
Further on it often consumes all available water in a region and you are introducing lots of chemicals in
the environment.

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2. Climate trends - affects everyone
3. Combination of 1 and 2: climate trends causing more climate shocks, e.g. increase in bushfires.
4. Slow onset changes e.g. sea level rise.
The question remains whether our institutions are prepared for climate change impacts.
Climate shocks/hazard change
- hazards may affect people or area’s which were never confronted with the hazard before.
e.g. Hurricane Caterina is the first known hurricane hitting South America.
e.g. Changes in typhoon-affected area’s in Asia.
Part 2: Vulnerability, Adaption and Resilience
Dr. Cannon explains the concepts and framework of vulnerability, adaption and resilience to natural hazards
and climate change. He uses the pressure-and-release model (see figure 1) to illustrate what causes disasters.
See also the book ‘At Risk’, of which Dr. Cannon is co-author.
Figure 1: The Pressure and Release model. Source: Wisner B, et al, 2004.
Q&A
Q: Poor people do not contribute much in the emission of greenhouse gases, but do they not have the
aspiration to have the same lifestyle as us?
A: you have to be able to have access to health, good water supply, ...
example of China and the rise of car transport
[...]
Our current economic model is bad for the environment and people as well.

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In the pressure-and-release model, wider power relations (root causes) determine the social frame and the
direct (human) causes of disaster.
Nature provides us with opportunities and production resources, but also EXPOSURE to hazards.
There is an unequal access of people to these resources (e.g. in SE Asia, 30%-60% of people are landless).
In order to do evaluate the control over resources you should do class-analysis. Class, gender, ethnicity and cast
control access to resources of individuals and social groups.
Exposure to hazards of individuals is dependent on the political and economic system. E.g. living in slums
Adaptation is difficult for people without access to resources.
Problem: people often have to accept risk for opportunities or immediate benefit.
e.g. living on fertile volcano slopes. Living close to sea in tsunami-prone areas for the opportunity of fishing.
VULNERABILITY =
“the characteristics of a person or group and their situation that influence their capacity to anticipate, cope
with, resist and recover from the impact of a natural hazard (an extreme natural event or process)”
(Wisner et al, 2004, p11)
Dr. Cannon stresses that disasters are socially constructed
e.g. The same hurricane in the Caribbean can cause zero mortality in Cuba but the deaths of hundreds of
people in Haiti. Or no mortalities in Florida, but millions of dollars of damage to infrastructure.
e.g. “The Haiti earthquake-disaster started 200 year ago”
- exploitation, inequality, dictatorship leading to desperate situation
- a natural hazard (earthquake) occurs, turning to a disaster because of the socio-economic situation
in which people are trapped
e.g. The gender biased number of casualties in the 1991 storm surge in Bangladesh (for every man, six women
drowned, because most woman were never taught how to swim).
Governments and policymakers prefer to use the term ‘natural disaster’ (blaming nature instead of the society,
which is the responsibility of governments).
The complexity of concepts has increased in history:
The Risk equation evolved from Risk = Hazard * vulnerability to an equation which comprises the concepts
exposure, vulnerability, capability/resilience and culture.
CULTURAL FACTOR
e.g. Merapi shaman saying that the volcano god will spare the villages  200 deaths.
fatalistic and religious views are often ignored by scientists.
Can RESILIENCE be used as opposite of vulnerability (?)
self-protection against risk is dependent on wealth, culture and risk priorities
social protection can be provided by governments, NGO’s, Red Cross, ... and is dependent on power relations
or ‘governance’. (see also PAR model).
e.g. acute famines are rare in India because of free media, opposition parties, etc.  social protection.
acute famines happen more in China, where media is not free and covers up disasters.
Power systems socially construct livelihood and therefore coping capacity.
e.g. system that creates and maintains landless peasants in India. Or the fact that 48 richest people (a number
which can fit in a London bus) earn as much wealth as the poorest half of the world population.

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Cannon provides us the following definition of ‘bad governance’:
“you have bad governance when power is used for the benefit of the powerful.”
(compare this with the concept of capitalism)
Cannon further elaborates on resilience and adaption capability making use of the asset pentagram
(human capital – social capital – physical capital – financial capital – natural capital)
Perception of risks are also important. People don’t care about disaster, but are concerned about everyday life
issues, like good water, health, traffic safety (e.g. car crashes in Yemen).
Cannon argues that until now, political frameworks like Hyogo, are dealing with problems of disaster,
adaption to climate change and development too separately, while in fact these are all intertwined. But
there is hope for more institutional overlap in the future.
Cannon ends up with some ‘killer facts’
* There is approximately 23*10
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dollar stored in tax havens around the world, which would be enough to lift
everybody in the whole of Africa above the poverty line.
* In 2012, the top 200 energy companies have spend $ 674 billion in search of oil alone.
The next financial crisis could be triggered by a Kyoto protocol which requires the oil to be left in the ground.
The problem is however, that every actor acts perfectly correct according to their incentives.
References:
Ben Wisner, Piers Blaikie, Terry Cannon and Ian Davis, At risk: natural hazards, people’s vulnerability and
disasters. Second edition. Routledge, 2004, 471p.