China's Initiatives of Recovery from the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake
Similar a Assessing Future Resilience to Natural Hazards – The Challenge of Capturing Dynamic Changes under Conditions of Transformation and Climate Change
Similar a Assessing Future Resilience to Natural Hazards – The Challenge of Capturing Dynamic Changes under Conditions of Transformation and Climate Change (20)
A Holistic Approach Towards International Disaster Resilient Architecture by ...
Assessing Future Resilience to Natural Hazards – The Challenge of Capturing Dynamic Changes under Conditions of Transformation and Climate Change
1. Assessing Future Resilience to Natural Hazards – The Challenge of Capturing Dynamic Changes under Conditions of Transformation and Climate Change Matthias Garschagen (MA)| Research Associate/PhD Scholar | UNU-EHS Prof. Dr. Frauke Kraas | University of Cologne | Department of Geography
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3. Rationale – Advances in CC Risk Discourses Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
4. Rationale – Advances in CC Risk Discourses Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook Source: GSO 2001
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6. Rationale – Advances in CC Risk Discourses Source: Hoa et al. 2007 Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
7. Rationale – Advances in CC Risk Discourses Source: Dasgupta et al. 2007 Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
8. Rationale – Advances in CC Risk Discourses Source: Dasgupta et al. 2007 Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
9. Rationale – Gaps in Current Discourses Expected changes in natural and socio-economic systems Adaptation needs and options Figure adapted from Smit & Wandel (2006) Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook Vulnerabilities Exposures Hazards Current Vulnerabilities Exposures Hazards Future Adaptive Strategies Current Adaptive Capacities Future Source: M. Garschagen Source: M. Garschagen Source: MONRE 2009
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11. Rationale – Gaps in Current Risk Discourses risk awareness accepted level or risk social / political priorities lifestyles disparities internal monetary flows ODA influence of civil society etc. etc. demography urbanisation economic growth industrialisation disaster risk management globalisation / global markets political (re-) organisation migration health care insurance systems etc. Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
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13. Rationale – Assessment Steps (First Attempts) Current vulnerabilities, coping mechanisms, adaptation strategies / potentials Can we learn how future vulnerabilities, coping mechanisms, adaptation strategies could look like? Assessing/predicting future vulnerabilities, coping mechanisms, adaptive capacities, and (new) exposure Current political set-up and socio-economic conditions Can we predict future political and socio-economic conditions/trends/possible pathways and their influence on future vulnerabilities, coping capacities, adaptive capacities of distinct population groups? Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
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17. Case Study: Urban Development in Vietnam => Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook civil society state private business sector civil society private business sector state
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20. Vietnam: Urban Upgrading and Resettlement Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook Source: M. Garschagen 2009 Source: M. Garschagen 2009
21. Discussion, Conclusions and Outlook – Transferring Scenario Thinking into the Socio-Economic Sphere current situation scenario A scenario B scenario Bb scenario Ba scenario Aa scenario Ab Direction of Transformation, Impacts, Resilience Effects time Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
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24. Case Study: Urban Development in Vietnam Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
25. Vietnam: Urban Upgrading and Resettlement Developer receives land use right according to zoning and development master plan Government authorities set aside land for public developments Develops site clearance- and compensation-scheme and plan for construction of resettlement zone Private developer Government authorities Compensation scheme is checked and approved/rejected by government authorities and/or site clearance committee Site clearance, compensation and relocation takes place Site clearance, compensation and relocation takes place Source: own draft based on Land Law 2003; Decision 103/2008/QD-UNBD; Resolution 188/2004/ND-CP; Resoliution 123/2007/ND-CP Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
26. R isk = H azard (creeping) x H azard (sudden-onset) x V ulnerability
Notas del editor
- Risk discourses partiuclarly in context of climate change
Scenarios also foster a more balanced view and help to prevent „black and white“ thinking Helps to identify responsibilities Helps to identify small elements that need to be changed (e.g. Rate of compensation)