Christoph HAEMMIG1, Hansrudolf KEUSEN1, Josef HESS2 1Geotest AG, Switzerland; 2Federal Office for the Environment, Executive Director LAINAT, Switzerland;

1. Xinjiang Department of Water Resources, P.R. China
Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC)
Sino-Swiss Cooperation on Monitoring
and Early Warning in the area of Yarkant
River, Uygur Autonomous Region,
Province Xinjiang, P.R. China
Status and Outlook
Ch. Haemmig, H.R. Keusen, J. Hess
GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012

2. Problem
Flooding along Yarkant River
Threatening 1 Mio. people
Occuring every 2-3 years
Page 2 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012

3. Objectives
Causes of flood at Yarkant River
> Rainfall in Yarkant Watershed
> Snowmelt in upper Yarkant Catchment
area (Karakorum mountains)
> Glacier lake outburst floods in
Shaksgam Valley (Keleqin River as
tributary of Yarkant River)
Page 3 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012

4. Kyagar Glacier
Page 4 Zollikofen, March 19th, 2012

5. Kyagar Glacier
2003 2003
Length Average width of Maximum height Area Terminal altitude Altitude of Highest
[km] glacier tongue in of the ice dam in [km2] (valley floor) firn line altitude
2011 [km] 2011 [m] [m a.s.l] [m a.s.l] [m a.s.l]
22 1.5 - 2 65 110 4’700 5’400 7’720
Page 5 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012

6. Kyagar Glacial Lake
±
Landsat-TM, MFB-GeoConsulting GmbH
May 18th, 2002
Page 6 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012

7. Kyagar Glacial Lake
±
Landsat-TM, MFB-GeoConsulting GmbH
June 22nd, 2002
Page 7 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012

8. Kyagar Glacial Lake
Length: 5.5 km
Width: 0.5 km
±
Landsat-TM, MFB-GeoConsulting GmbH
August 2nd, 2002
Page 8 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012

9. Kyagar Glacial Lake
Lake shortly before spontaneous outburst (August 13th, 2002)
V = 95 Mio m3
±
Landsat-TM, MFB-GeoConsulting GmbH
August 9th, 2002
Page 9 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012

10. Problem
August 13th, 2002
Peak discharge approx. 4‘500 m3/s
Page 10 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012

11. Kyagar Glacial Lake
Lake disappeared
±
Aster, MFB-GeoConsulting GmbH
October 12th, 2002
Page 11 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012

12. Objectives
Objectives of the Yarkant River Project
>Establishment of an Early Warning System (EWS) for GLOFs
(realized in 2011, on-going)
>Risk management for the potential flood areas
(to be realized in 2012 and on-going)
>Climate Change monitoring and analysis (started 2011, on-going)
>The ultimate goal is: to protect and save human life and their
properties, to reduce loss from floods, to ensure the development
of the local economy and to maintain the harmonious society of a
border area.
Page 12 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012

13. Kyagar Glacial Lake
Archive of satellite data (1972 – 2011): 56 images
13.06.1976 14.07.1977 18.07.1978
09.10.1998 16.09.1980 09.08.2002
15.09.2004 03.07.2006 27.07.2009
Page 13 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012

14. Kyagar Glacial Lake
Page 14 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012

15. Kyagar Glacier
Shorelines
1986
WorldView-2
2011
Page 15 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012

16. Early Warning System
Field mission September 2011
Page 16 FOEN, May 11th, 2012

17. Early Warning System
Concept
fully operational
Page 17 Ort und Datum des Anlasses

18. Early Warning System
2 radar sensors
Control unit:
data logger, 2
cameras, satellite
commuinaction
unit, solar panel
Page 18

19. Early Warning System
Cameras
Cam 1: upstream view (May Cam 2: downstream view (May 10th,
10th, 2012, 12h00 local time) 2012, 12h00 local time)
Page 19 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012

20. Kyagar Glacier 2002 - 2011
Page 20 Zollikofen, March 19th, 2012

21. Climate Change
Modelled retreat of the Kyagar Glacier tongue
Page 21 Ort und Datum des Anlasses

22. Kyagar Glacial Lake
Danger of GLOFs in the past and at present
Historic glacial lake volumes: > 200 Mio m3
Potential glacial lake volume 2011: 22 Mio m3
Page 22 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012

23. Climate Change
Relation between Volume and peak discharge
22
Calibrated relation between lake volume and peak discharge for outburst
floods of Kyagar Lake. Volumes for 2002, 2011 and 2020 are indicated.
Page 23 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012

24. Flood Zones Modelling
>Scenario 100 SwissRe
>Scenario 2 (1’000 m3/s)
Flood Area
± 0 5 10 20 Kilometers
Page 24 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012

25. Outlook (1)
Further milestones in step 2 and 3
>Continue the established EWS with satellite (SAR) remote sensing and
the terrestrial observation station.
>Verify the modelled potential flood zones in the populated areas and
to establish a hazard-indicatioin map as a base for an effective risk
management.
>Risk management based the hazard-index map and the implementation
of suitable mitigation measures shall be established in collaboration with
local authorities in step 3 (2013 and on-going).
>Installation of an observation station at Kyagar Glacier Lake for local
climate monitoring and early warning.
Page 25 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012

26. Outlook (2)
Further milestones in step 2 and 3
>Observe and verify the retreat of Kyagar Glacier with additional
photogrammetric investigations of the entire glacier in order to enhance
forecasts of potential GLOFs.
>Complete the implementation of the EWS with sever-applications at
the local authorities in Xinjiang. The goal is a fully independent operation
of the EWS.
>After the establishment and verification of the EWS along Keleqin/Yarkant
River, the methodology of the EWS can be transferred to another
dangerous glacial lake in the region of Xinjiang.
Page 26 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012

27. Page 27 Hangzhou, April 11th, 2012

28. Thank you
Page 28 FOEN, May 11th, 2012

29. Page 29 Ort und Datum des Anlasses

30. Page 30 Ort und Datum des Anlasses

31. Organisation
Page 31 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012

32. Executed Investigations
Field mission May 2011
Page 32 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012

33. Executed Investigations
Summary of executed investigations/worksteps
>Compilation of base maps and establishment of a detailed Digital
Elevation Model of the Kyagar Glacier Lake basin
>Continuous observation of Kyagar Glacier Lake by satellite (SAR)
remote sensing for Early Warning of GLOFs
>Installation of gauge and warning station as a part of the Early
Warning System
>Analyses of past GLOFs and glacier lake volumes based on satellite
data
>Modelling of Flood Zones along Yarkant River based on scenarios
>Evaluation and forecast of future scenarios for Kyagar GLOFs
considering global climate change
Page 33 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012

34. Kyagar Glacial Lake
discharge
Peak Peak Flowtime Flood Volume of Max.
before runoff duration Surface of
discharge discharge duration duration between Rising travel time Kyagar Elevation of Depth of Elevation of
Date of flood (flood) of Kyagar
(Langan (Kaqong of flood of falling Langan and rate Langan - Glacial lake surface Kyagar ice-dam [m
event (Kaqong Volume raisaing Glacial
station) station) [h] limb [h] Kaqong [m/h] Kaqong Lake [Mio [m a.s..l.] Glacier a.s.l.]
station) [Mio m3] limb [h] Lake [m2]
[m3/s] [m3/s] station [h] [km/h] m3 ] lake [m]
[m3/s]
>Long history of historic Max.
29.08.1959 2'570 2'460 46.00 34 3.5 30.5 9.5 0.35 12.2
234 4'852 152 4'965'920
GLOFs: 27 events 04.09.1961
24.06.1963
6'670
1'900
6'270
1'690
150.00
48.00
27.2
32
1.2
2
21.8
30
8.2
8.3
5.84
0.56
14.2
11.3
in 54 years
16.09.1963 1'320 40.00 43 4.5 0.22 12.7
06.09.1964 2'380 2'450 67.00 34 2.5 21.5 9.9 0.54 11.7
21.08.1965 1'730 1'770 52.00 60 1.8 31.2 8.8 0.41 12.2
29.07.1966 1'480 28.00 29 2.5 0.17 12.1
10.08.1968 3'150 50.00 25 3.2 18.8 0.4
>Average peak 02.08.1971
13.06.1976
4'740 4'570 73.00 22 6 14 7 0.17 16.6
3.4 4'745 301'052
discharges:
04.07.1977 42.4 4'789 1'732'718
16.07.1977 2'670 42.00 26 11 0.07 15.5
06.09.1978 4'890 4'700 136.00 62 1.5 30.5 8.7 1.36 12.6
1’000-3’000 m3/s 07.06.1979
30.08.1979 1'960 46.00 40 2.2 0.44 11.2
18.1 4'770 974'533
21.10.1980 802 20.00 40 1 0.78 11.1
16.11.1982 856 19.00 22 1.5 0.42 11.1
>Max. peak
28.10.1983 854 45.00
30.08.1984 4'940 4'570 84.00 42 0.3 19.7 7.9 5.3 14.6
14.08.1986 2'130 1'980 51.00 22.5 4.7 29.3 9.2 0.24 12.5
discharges: 03.08.1997
09.10.1998
4'200 4'040
4'040 984
75.00
87.90
23
26
5.5
7.5
17.5 9.7
121.4 4'819 3'370'582
>6’000 m3/s
15.11.1998 1'920 1'850 40.00 28 1.6 26.4 11.4
11.08.1999 6'610 6'070 1'050 150.00 36 16.2 19.8 8.9
08.07.2001 1'490 1'630 18 3.5 14.5 9
(1961 & 1999) 02.06.2002
09.08.2002
1.6
94.8
4'735
4'810 100
166'394
2'780'071
13.08.2002 4'300 4'610 1'330 124.80 46 10 36 7.9
25.08.2003 1'950 1'860 33.5 2 31.5 10.2
>Average runoff
14.08.2004 49.3 4'784 76 1'778'928
15.09.2004 63.4 4'792 2'117'480
20.09.2004 1'450 1'360 35.00 30 6 24 10.5
Volumes: 27.04.2005
02.09.2005 1'880 1'720 45.00 31 4.2 26.8 10.7
4.1 4'741 40 316'951
40 – 80 Mio m3
03.07.2006 9.5 4'749 50 524'973
02.08.2006 3'150 3'510 55.00 11 2 9 8.2
27.07.2009 44.8 4'781 1'646'677
16.06.2011 0.09 4762
Page 34 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012

35. Kyagar Glacial Lake
Flood volumes and calculated lake volumes
Page 35 Zollikofen, March 19th, 2012

36. Early Warning System
Date Occurr Volume Hazard In – and Remarks
ence of level outflow of
of glacier the glacier
glacier lake basin
lake [m3]
27.08. yes min. very low Inflow: large Lake surface is
2011 45’000 Outflow: similar to August
max. large 5th 2011
95’000 Data: SAR
backscatter
(Terrasar-X)
07.09. yes min. very low Inflow: Lake surface is
2011 45’000 moderate similar to August
max. Outflow: 27th 2011
95’000 moderate Data: SAR
backscatter
(Terrasar-X)
18.09. yes approx. very low Inflow: minor Lake surface is
2011 50’000 Outflow: approx. 50%
moderate smaller than
07.09.2011
Data: SAR
backscatter
(Terrasar-X)
TerraSAR-X, August 27th, 2011 21.10. no - - Inflow: dry Lake
2011 Outflow: disappeared
Page 36 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012
minor

37. Early Warning System
Gauge station at Keleqin River / Yarkant River confluence
>bridge over a gorge
(incised in bedrock),
situated approx. 200
km downstream of
Kyagar Glacier.
>Keleqin River flows
through the gorge
most of the time.
Only in cases of
floods,a minor amout
of water flows
through the riverbed
at the east side of
the gorge.
±
Page 37 Data source: Google Earth

38. Climate Change
>Changes among
± 3 SAR images
>e.g. determing
areas of wet
snow (melting)
TerraSAR-X RGB composite of red: April 17th, 2011, green August
16th, 2011, and blue August 5th, 2011
Page 38 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012

39. Climate Change
± >Feature tracking:
displacement
rate and
direction
Displacement rate determined from TerraSAR-X feature tracking visualized
as layer in Google Earth.
Page 39 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012

40. Climate Change
>base of a
± displacement
map
>potential signals of
slope movement
The interferogram shows the phase difference of two SAR images
(movement in the line of sight).
Page 40 Ort und Datum des Anlasses

41. Early Warning System
Water level Daily System Check
distance to water level logger temperature
Battery
Page 41 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012

42. Early Warning System
Satellite: Procedure of Early Warning and Monitoring
Page 42 Zollikofen, March 19th, 2012

43. Outlook (2)
Further milestones in step 2 and 3
>Supply the hydrographic station at Langan with additional
instruments for automated runoff monitoring and alarming in case of
floods. This station covers a large catchment area and is therefore
suitable for recording melt-water, rainfall and glacial lake outburst floods.
>Supply the observation station at Cha Hekou with additional
instruments for climate monitoring (i.e. rain-observer, temperature
sensor) to improve runoff-forecasts after heavy rainfall.
>Establish detailed cross-sections for runoff estimations at Cha Hekou.
>Survey of a location upstream of Cha Hekou for the installation of a
runoff-measuring station.
Page 43 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012

44. Impact on lake formation
Maximum lake Potential Lake Potential Peak
Year level (m a.s.l.) Volume (mio. Lake Discharge
m3) (m3 s-1)
2002 4827 153.6 4666
2004 4809 93.6 3349
2006 4801 75.1 2889
2008 4792 57.5 2416
2011 4762 22.5 1288
2014 4751 16.1 1030
2016 4737 8.5 668
2018 4729 5.8 523
2020 4724 3-5 432
2025 4709 0.8 - 0.01 7
Page 44 GRF Davos, August 28th, 2012

45. Modelled annual runoff
Figure 6.8: Modelled annual runoff volume from
the catchment above Kyagar Lake (the source
area of Keleqin River). Runoff consists of
rain, snow- and glacier melt. The area of the
drainage basin is 476 km2. The results indicate a
strong increase in annual discharge over the next
decades due to glacier mass loss.
Page 45 Hangzhou, April 11th, 2012

46. Results shown in Google Earth
>without flooding >with flooded areas