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6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
How critical infrastructure orients
international relief in cascading
disasters
Gianluca Pescaroli, University College London (UCL), UK
Ilan Kelman, UCL,UK and Norwegian Institute of International
Affairs (NUPI), Oslo
Full paper: Pescaroli, G., Kelman, I. (2016), How critical
infrastructure orients international relief in cascading disasters
Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management, Early view
online, DOI: 10.1111/1468-5973.12118
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
 Globally networked risks
and the new role for critical
infrastructure (CI)
 Logistics in developing
countries VS. “can do it on
our own” in HDC
 Interdependencies and
networked failures in HDC,
cascading events
 But….Do HDC always
have the resources to
cope?
Background
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Cascading disasters: What if….
 High complexity: networks,
and multi-dimensionality.
 Non - linear progress and
amplification
 Critical infrastructure, cross-
scale and secondary
emergencies.
 Escalations and
vulnerability paths
  Check out the talk tomorrow morning and our work
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Our Hypothesis…
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Methods and selection of cases
 Replicability: refer to the
definitions by P&A 2015;
Cathegories by the Cabinet
(2011) with National
Monuments and heritage
(OECD 2008).
 There is an official eequest of
international relief, different
geographic areas
 Availability of primary and
Secondary data (NATO,
OCHA , Relieweb)
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Assumptions and limitations
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
2002 Floods in Prague Area
2006). The impact on the capital of the Czech Republic was particularly strong (see Figur
and it necessitated a strong commitment on the part of the international community. Fo
reason, the analysis of the floods presented in this chapter focuses on Prague.
inhabitants of Prague and Dresden who had to be vaccinated against hepatitis (Ekengren et al.
2006). The impact on the capital of the Czech Republic was particularly strong (see Figure 23),
and it necessitated a strong commitment on the part of the international community. For this
reason, the analysis of the floods presented in this chapter focuses on Prague.
Figure 23 Clockwise order: Karlin District in Prague, Vltava River flooded in Prague, Troja
and mobile flood protection in Prague city centre (Source: Ministry of the Environment o
Case CI involved Cascading effects International Relief
2002
Floods
Spolana
chemical plant
Contamination of environment
and potential effect on health
Specialised personnel, experts
on land rehabilitation
Water sector Contamination of environment
and effects on health
Vaccines, chlorine-based
disinfectants, cleaning
products, protective clothing,
mobile chemical laboratory,
experts on land rehabilitation
Icons and
monuments
Intangible effects on the
community
Specialised personnel on
restoration of cultural heritage
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
2005 Hurricane Katrina
Case CI involved Cascading effects International Relief
2005
Katrina
Energy sector Social disruption and
cascading effects on others
sectors such as water CI
Energy generators, power re-
establishment teams, high power
pontoons,lights, meals Ready to Eat
Water sector Social disruption Bottled water, water trucks
Water and
chemicals sectors
Contamination of
environment and potential
effects on health
Chemical analysis teams, water
treatment and purification units,
water clearing, disinfectants,
chemical analysis/detection teams,
hazardous waste handling teams,
counter-pollution…
ICT sector Social disruption GSM network stations, technological
support
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
2011 Triple event in Japan
2011 triple
event
in Japan
Fukushima
nuclear plant
Heavy contamination of
environment, effects on health
and on global politics
Radiation survey meters, readers
for dosimeters, personal
dosimeters, masks, radiological
detectors, protective item ,
..radiation measurement vehicle,
water barges, semiconductor
detectors … CNBR training,
nuclear experts
Energy sector Social disruption and cascading
effects on others sectors such as
water CI.
Food supplies, emergency lights
and lanterns, generators and
body warmers, fuel, liquid
natural gas, gasoline, diesel
Water sector Social disruption Bottles of water, water tanks
Transport
sector
Social disruption, emergency
services
Full mobilisation of US army,
with tools and expertise
ICT sector Social disruption Broadband global area network
terminals
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
CI and international relief in cascading:
more than logistics
Indirect effect: self- standing hazards
e.g. Nuclearplant->Contamination->
CBRNtraining anddosimeters
Direct effect: functional nodes
e.g. Powerplant -> Lackof energy
supply-> MREsandwater
Intangible effects: icons and heritage
e.g. Museum->Relics->Restorers
Disruption of CI
Trigger Event
Request/Offer of
International
Relief
National response capacity
is overwhelmed
Cascading escalation of
secondary events
Direct effect: cross sector disruption, food and water
supply…Much less energy and communication networks.
Transportation just in JapanTHE OPPOSITE!
Indirect effects: It integrates the evidence that vulnerable equipment
and materials like storage tanks, pipelines, and paperwork can generate
secondary disasters after some environmental triggers
Significant divergence between offered and accepted in Katrina
Intangibles: small evidence just in Prague. Is it just a cultural matter or is
it related to particular historical heritage?
Prague Library like the 1966 Uffizi floods in Florence
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Conclusions and a lot of open questions
Application: development
systematic databases
Q*Data mining: which
thresholds?
Q*Define the contribution of
NGOs and the implications
for disaster diplomacy
Q*Accepted vs offered relief
Q* transportation and
diplomacy
Q*problem trees
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Thanks for listening!
www.ucl.ac.uk/rdr/cascading

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How Critical Infrastructure Orients International Relief in Cascading Disasters, Gianluca PESCAROLI

  • 1. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org How critical infrastructure orients international relief in cascading disasters Gianluca Pescaroli, University College London (UCL), UK Ilan Kelman, UCL,UK and Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI), Oslo Full paper: Pescaroli, G., Kelman, I. (2016), How critical infrastructure orients international relief in cascading disasters Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management, Early view online, DOI: 10.1111/1468-5973.12118
  • 2. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org  Globally networked risks and the new role for critical infrastructure (CI)  Logistics in developing countries VS. “can do it on our own” in HDC  Interdependencies and networked failures in HDC, cascading events  But….Do HDC always have the resources to cope? Background
  • 3. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Cascading disasters: What if….  High complexity: networks, and multi-dimensionality.  Non - linear progress and amplification  Critical infrastructure, cross- scale and secondary emergencies.  Escalations and vulnerability paths   Check out the talk tomorrow morning and our work
  • 4. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Our Hypothesis…
  • 5. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Methods and selection of cases  Replicability: refer to the definitions by P&A 2015; Cathegories by the Cabinet (2011) with National Monuments and heritage (OECD 2008).  There is an official eequest of international relief, different geographic areas  Availability of primary and Secondary data (NATO, OCHA , Relieweb)
  • 6. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Assumptions and limitations
  • 7. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org 2002 Floods in Prague Area 2006). The impact on the capital of the Czech Republic was particularly strong (see Figur and it necessitated a strong commitment on the part of the international community. Fo reason, the analysis of the floods presented in this chapter focuses on Prague. inhabitants of Prague and Dresden who had to be vaccinated against hepatitis (Ekengren et al. 2006). The impact on the capital of the Czech Republic was particularly strong (see Figure 23), and it necessitated a strong commitment on the part of the international community. For this reason, the analysis of the floods presented in this chapter focuses on Prague. Figure 23 Clockwise order: Karlin District in Prague, Vltava River flooded in Prague, Troja and mobile flood protection in Prague city centre (Source: Ministry of the Environment o Case CI involved Cascading effects International Relief 2002 Floods Spolana chemical plant Contamination of environment and potential effect on health Specialised personnel, experts on land rehabilitation Water sector Contamination of environment and effects on health Vaccines, chlorine-based disinfectants, cleaning products, protective clothing, mobile chemical laboratory, experts on land rehabilitation Icons and monuments Intangible effects on the community Specialised personnel on restoration of cultural heritage
  • 8. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org 2005 Hurricane Katrina Case CI involved Cascading effects International Relief 2005 Katrina Energy sector Social disruption and cascading effects on others sectors such as water CI Energy generators, power re- establishment teams, high power pontoons,lights, meals Ready to Eat Water sector Social disruption Bottled water, water trucks Water and chemicals sectors Contamination of environment and potential effects on health Chemical analysis teams, water treatment and purification units, water clearing, disinfectants, chemical analysis/detection teams, hazardous waste handling teams, counter-pollution… ICT sector Social disruption GSM network stations, technological support
  • 9. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org 2011 Triple event in Japan 2011 triple event in Japan Fukushima nuclear plant Heavy contamination of environment, effects on health and on global politics Radiation survey meters, readers for dosimeters, personal dosimeters, masks, radiological detectors, protective item , ..radiation measurement vehicle, water barges, semiconductor detectors … CNBR training, nuclear experts Energy sector Social disruption and cascading effects on others sectors such as water CI. Food supplies, emergency lights and lanterns, generators and body warmers, fuel, liquid natural gas, gasoline, diesel Water sector Social disruption Bottles of water, water tanks Transport sector Social disruption, emergency services Full mobilisation of US army, with tools and expertise ICT sector Social disruption Broadband global area network terminals
  • 10. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org CI and international relief in cascading: more than logistics Indirect effect: self- standing hazards e.g. Nuclearplant->Contamination-> CBRNtraining anddosimeters Direct effect: functional nodes e.g. Powerplant -> Lackof energy supply-> MREsandwater Intangible effects: icons and heritage e.g. Museum->Relics->Restorers Disruption of CI Trigger Event Request/Offer of International Relief National response capacity is overwhelmed Cascading escalation of secondary events Direct effect: cross sector disruption, food and water supply…Much less energy and communication networks. Transportation just in JapanTHE OPPOSITE! Indirect effects: It integrates the evidence that vulnerable equipment and materials like storage tanks, pipelines, and paperwork can generate secondary disasters after some environmental triggers Significant divergence between offered and accepted in Katrina Intangibles: small evidence just in Prague. Is it just a cultural matter or is it related to particular historical heritage? Prague Library like the 1966 Uffizi floods in Florence
  • 11. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Conclusions and a lot of open questions Application: development systematic databases Q*Data mining: which thresholds? Q*Define the contribution of NGOs and the implications for disaster diplomacy Q*Accepted vs offered relief Q* transportation and diplomacy Q*problem trees
  • 12. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Thanks for listening! www.ucl.ac.uk/rdr/cascading