6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 Integrative Risk Management - Towards Resilient Cities. 28 August - 01 September 2016 in Davos, Switzerland
Integrated Finanical Risk Transfer Mechanisms for Urban Resilience, Sandra SC...
How Critical Infrastructure Orients International Relief in Cascading Disasters, Gianluca PESCAROLI
1. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
How critical infrastructure orients
international relief in cascading
disasters
Gianluca Pescaroli, University College London (UCL), UK
Ilan Kelman, UCL,UK and Norwegian Institute of International
Affairs (NUPI), Oslo
Full paper: Pescaroli, G., Kelman, I. (2016), How critical
infrastructure orients international relief in cascading disasters
Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management, Early view
online, DOI: 10.1111/1468-5973.12118
2. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Globally networked risks
and the new role for critical
infrastructure (CI)
Logistics in developing
countries VS. “can do it on
our own” in HDC
Interdependencies and
networked failures in HDC,
cascading events
But….Do HDC always
have the resources to
cope?
Background
3. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Cascading disasters: What if….
High complexity: networks,
and multi-dimensionality.
Non - linear progress and
amplification
Critical infrastructure, cross-
scale and secondary
emergencies.
Escalations and
vulnerability paths
Check out the talk tomorrow morning and our work
4. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Our Hypothesis…
5. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Methods and selection of cases
Replicability: refer to the
definitions by P&A 2015;
Cathegories by the Cabinet
(2011) with National
Monuments and heritage
(OECD 2008).
There is an official eequest of
international relief, different
geographic areas
Availability of primary and
Secondary data (NATO,
OCHA , Relieweb)
6. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Assumptions and limitations
7. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
2002 Floods in Prague Area
2006). The impact on the capital of the Czech Republic was particularly strong (see Figur
and it necessitated a strong commitment on the part of the international community. Fo
reason, the analysis of the floods presented in this chapter focuses on Prague.
inhabitants of Prague and Dresden who had to be vaccinated against hepatitis (Ekengren et al.
2006). The impact on the capital of the Czech Republic was particularly strong (see Figure 23),
and it necessitated a strong commitment on the part of the international community. For this
reason, the analysis of the floods presented in this chapter focuses on Prague.
Figure 23 Clockwise order: Karlin District in Prague, Vltava River flooded in Prague, Troja
and mobile flood protection in Prague city centre (Source: Ministry of the Environment o
Case CI involved Cascading effects International Relief
2002
Floods
Spolana
chemical plant
Contamination of environment
and potential effect on health
Specialised personnel, experts
on land rehabilitation
Water sector Contamination of environment
and effects on health
Vaccines, chlorine-based
disinfectants, cleaning
products, protective clothing,
mobile chemical laboratory,
experts on land rehabilitation
Icons and
monuments
Intangible effects on the
community
Specialised personnel on
restoration of cultural heritage
8. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
2005 Hurricane Katrina
Case CI involved Cascading effects International Relief
2005
Katrina
Energy sector Social disruption and
cascading effects on others
sectors such as water CI
Energy generators, power re-
establishment teams, high power
pontoons,lights, meals Ready to Eat
Water sector Social disruption Bottled water, water trucks
Water and
chemicals sectors
Contamination of
environment and potential
effects on health
Chemical analysis teams, water
treatment and purification units,
water clearing, disinfectants,
chemical analysis/detection teams,
hazardous waste handling teams,
counter-pollution…
ICT sector Social disruption GSM network stations, technological
support
9. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
2011 Triple event in Japan
2011 triple
event
in Japan
Fukushima
nuclear plant
Heavy contamination of
environment, effects on health
and on global politics
Radiation survey meters, readers
for dosimeters, personal
dosimeters, masks, radiological
detectors, protective item ,
..radiation measurement vehicle,
water barges, semiconductor
detectors … CNBR training,
nuclear experts
Energy sector Social disruption and cascading
effects on others sectors such as
water CI.
Food supplies, emergency lights
and lanterns, generators and
body warmers, fuel, liquid
natural gas, gasoline, diesel
Water sector Social disruption Bottles of water, water tanks
Transport
sector
Social disruption, emergency
services
Full mobilisation of US army,
with tools and expertise
ICT sector Social disruption Broadband global area network
terminals
10. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
CI and international relief in cascading:
more than logistics
Indirect effect: self- standing hazards
e.g. Nuclearplant->Contamination->
CBRNtraining anddosimeters
Direct effect: functional nodes
e.g. Powerplant -> Lackof energy
supply-> MREsandwater
Intangible effects: icons and heritage
e.g. Museum->Relics->Restorers
Disruption of CI
Trigger Event
Request/Offer of
International
Relief
National response capacity
is overwhelmed
Cascading escalation of
secondary events
Direct effect: cross sector disruption, food and water
supply…Much less energy and communication networks.
Transportation just in JapanTHE OPPOSITE!
Indirect effects: It integrates the evidence that vulnerable equipment
and materials like storage tanks, pipelines, and paperwork can generate
secondary disasters after some environmental triggers
Significant divergence between offered and accepted in Katrina
Intangibles: small evidence just in Prague. Is it just a cultural matter or is
it related to particular historical heritage?
Prague Library like the 1966 Uffizi floods in Florence
11. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Conclusions and a lot of open questions
Application: development
systematic databases
Q*Data mining: which
thresholds?
Q*Define the contribution of
NGOs and the implications
for disaster diplomacy
Q*Accepted vs offered relief
Q* transportation and
diplomacy
Q*problem trees
12. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Thanks for listening!
www.ucl.ac.uk/rdr/cascading