5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland

1. Risk Differentiation for Critical
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Infrastructure Protection
Sascha Meng*, Marcus Wiens & Frank Schultmann
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
Institute for Industrial Production
Hertzstraße 16, Bldg. 06.33, 76187 Karlsruhe, Germany

2. Why protecting critical infrastructures?
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org

3. Characteristics of critical infrastructures
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
» essential for welfare
» connected, interdependent, complex
» exposed to risks

4. uncertainty
event
consequences
knowledge
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Risk and risk types
» risk = function
risk type 1
chance
risk type 2
choice

5. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Risks type 1
» caused by nature or randomness
» unintentional
» without interaction
» safety-relevant
 fire, floods, storms, earthquakes, …
 technical failures, material defects, …
 unintentional mistakes (errors), ignorance

6. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Risks type 2
» caused by malicious human behaviour
» mainly intentional
» with interaction
» security-relevant (and safety-relevant)
 fire (arson)
 fraud, bribery, thievery
 terrorism

7. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Risk management
risk
identification
risk
analysis
risk
evaluation
risk
treatment
risk
monitoring
different risks,
same approach?

8. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Risk analysis hitherto
» one (standard) approach
» probability based
» interactions not considered
 variance analysis, probability risk analysis,
scenario analysis, bayesian analysis, …

9. type 1 type 2
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Risk analysis hitherto - example
adverse
event event 1 event 2
likelihood
without protect. 1 > 2 3 > 4
likelihood
with protect. 1 2 > 3 4 < >
adaptability

10. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Risk analysis in future
» different (suitable) approaches
» probability based (where possible)
» interactions considered (if necessary)
 variance analysis, probability risk analysis,
scenario analysis, bayesian analysis, …
 game theory

11. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Conclusions
» rethink risk analysis
» improve risk analysis approaches
» integrate different risk analysis approaches

12. Added value for the Post 2015 Framework for
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Disaster Risk Reduction
• How did your work support the implementation of the Hyogo
Framework for Action:
– it provides a general approach, applicable to many fields
– it focuses on general problems rather than on specific problems
– the approach can be used to mitigate the consequences of man-made
as well as of natural hazards
• From your perspective what are the main gaps, needs and
further steps to be addressed in the Post 2015 Framework for
Disaster Risk Reduction in
– Research: there is need to better understand complexity in systems
– Education & Training: there is a need to improve risk perception
– Implementation & Practice: there is a need for tailored risk analysis
– Policy: there is a need for better risk policies

13. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Thank you for your attention.
Contact details
Dipl.-Ing. Sascha Meng
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
Institute for Industrial Production
Research Group on Risk Management
Hertzstrasse 16, Bldg. 06.33, 76187 Karlsruhe, Germany
+49 721 608 44577
sascha.meng@kit.edu