The document discusses several issues facing Pakistan that could potentially lead to civil war, including a weak civilian government, poor economic conditions, religious extremism and growing insurgency groups. The Taliban and other militant groups have gained control of parts of northwest Pakistan and are enforcing strict sharia law. They also target schools and anyone who opposes them. Rising religious intolerance between Sunni and Shia Muslims as well as against religious minorities is another major issue. Upcoming elections will be a key test for Pakistan's fragile democratic system and its ability to address the country's many problems.

1. Gabriel Passmore
POLS 410
Special Topics: Civil War
Civil War Risk Assessment
Pakistan
The current state of Pakistan finds itself again at the thresholds of unpredictability.
The country’s civilian government is not producing the economic and social results that it
was elected to do. Pakistan’s economy is virtually non-existent and the standard of living
has gone down due to depleted services. Pakistan has had a dismal history of the military
stepping in and governing the country when civilian rule becomes unproductive and
corrupt. While Pakistan was founded to be a Muslim country, it has become the home to
a multiplicity of different groups that are instituting religious extremism and violence
amongst society. Some of these groups involved include the Taliban from Afghanistan,
which has created the Pakistani Taliban Movement. This insurgency movement is
comprised of multiple militant groups that are charged for spreading violence and
intolerance to anyone who is opposed to their message. The government and the
military’s reluctance to do anything about these problems have left Pakistan’s society
under a blanket of fear and hopelessness. These insurgency groups as well as Pakistan’s
economic and governmental issues are the foundations for a possible civil war and a
collapsed state.
Elections
The ruling party of Pakistan’s parliament has ended their five-year term before the
country’s general elections. This move was in accordance with the constitution, which
closed all doors for any possible attempt to seize power by force. While this measure is

2. viewed as democratic, the government however did not perform that well in areas
concerning social services and law and order. Usually these measures would cause the
military to step in and rule the country, but for the most part the military has held back
and remains keeping a watchful eye on how the election process unfolds. Some of
Pakistan’s past military rulers while coming to power imposed martial law on the public
and suspended the constitution in order to secure their control. Other military rulers
established strict forms of Islam to govern Pakistani society while banning the media,
controlling the court systems, repressing women’s rights and often getting Pakistan
involved in stalemate wars with neighboring counties.
In the past as well as in the present day, Pakistan has had problems with corrupt
leadership whether it is from the civilian or the military governments. The dominate party
that is in control of Pakistan’s bicameral parliament is the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP),
which is a centrist party against a growing league of fundamental Muslim groups who
aim to take power in the mist of the PPP’s mishandling of the country’s political affairs.
Pakistan has had a history of dismissing prime ministers on charges of corruption, which
often leads to military intervention and in return, the military usually becomes ousted by
a civilian coalition on the same corruption charges. The Pakistani people will have to
decide in the upcoming elections about which direction they want the country to be
governed. In general, the prospects do not look good in regarding the options and
consequences throughout the election process. The Pakistani people can vote in the PPP
for another term even though they are unreliable and often corrupt at delivering social
services and law and order to the country.

3. If these measures of corruption continue to occur for the PPP, the military will
defiantly intervene in an effort to secure the country from political collapse. The return to
military rule means that Pakistan will have more restricted freedoms and human rights
abuses in order to install law and order back into the country. The Pakistani people can
choose to vote in another political party that may be worse than what the PPP has to
offer. If the PPP can win another term and deliver on the issues they failed at before then
maybe there will not be a need for more military rule and democracy can achieve another
milestone in a country plagued by corrupt leadership and unfair elections. If these
measures go in the other direction then Pakistan could face a return to military rule,
which will cause civil unrest.
Economy
Pakistan’s economy slowly lacks behind when compared to other developing
countries that rely heavily on their agriculture and technological exports as a way to
produce economic growth. Pakistan severely needs to pursue an export led growth
strategy that would improve the country’s economy and living standards. The country
continues to perform on a macroeconomic basis through its current export structure. In
order for Pakistan to improve its economic condition it “would require a major structural
transformation of the economy and changes in its export specialization
patterns”(Mahmood). These patterns are not occurring at a reasonable rate, which causes
Pakistan to rely on foreign imports in order to sustain its economy. Pakistan’s main
source of exports comes from their textiles and clothing sector. Given that the export
structure is a manifestation of the technological base would require and drive Pakistan to

4. move up the technological ladder, but instead this pattern has not occurred, which has
caused Pakistan’s economy to remain backward with very little economic growth.
Pakistan’s continued reliance on textiles and clothing exports has caused the country
to lag behind Southeast Asian economies that have moved away from low value products
to technology intensive high value manufacturing. “This pattern of export specialization
points to a failure to diversify export structure by moving into high added, relatively
technological and high skilled labor intensive product lines”(Mahmood). This failure to
expand into more technological exports will cause Pakistan’s textile and clothing sector
to become under increasing pressure from the lower producers, which could cause
manufacturing closers and unemployment due to cheaper prices from other producers.
Pakistan’s economy also remains unstable due to current account deficits and rising fiscal
imbalances that have occurred over a long period of time through past and present
leadership. Throughout the years, Pakistan has managed to accumulate a substantial
amount of debt through the induction of economic sanctions and reckless government
spending.
A great portion of Pakistan’s failed economy and high deficits can be contributed to
the country’s poor leadership. During the Zia era “the debt grew by the average annual
rate of 17.7 percent in normal terms and nearly 10 percent in real terms during this
period”(Hasan). This was due to the government’s heavy reliance on borrowing from
non-bank sources, which increased the debt by 40 percent by offering very high interest
rates. On through the 1990’s and well into present day, Pakistan’s economy remains in a
state of crisis due to continued government spending and borrowing while relying on a
one dimensional export market as a main source of revenue. The consequences for these

5. measures will require Pakistan to abide to the conditionality of the World Bank and IMF
in order to pay off their debt. Pakistan will also have to manage their economy with
limited growth in investment and imports. This will make it difficult for a quick recovery
in economic growth, which is urgently needed to create jobs and reverse the trend
towards increasing the onset of poverty. If Pakistan continues this economic trend then
their whole financial structure will eventually collapse, leaving people jobless, which
could trigger mass protests and systematic rioting that will leave the country in a state of
civil upheaval.
Insurgency Groups
Pakistan has become the host to an array of many different insurgency groups that all
have on thing in common and that is the establishment of a fundamental Islamic
government for all of Pakistan. Pakistan is an Islamic country through and large, but
some provinces as well as the capital in Islamabad offer a more secular interpretation of
Islam than what the fundamentalists prefer. These groups have been explicitly
indoctrinating and instituting religious extremism and violence throughout Pakistan. One
of these insurgency groups is the Taliban who moved into the region after they were
ousted from power in Afghanistan by U.S. forces. After the ouster of Pakistan’s last
military ruler Pervez Musharraf, the country’s new civilian government fell into a state of
political disarray that ignited protests against a divided corrupt government that were
continuing with some of the past administrations policies that involved the barring of
certain individuals from the election process. The general collapse of law and order
during these protests provided a strategic boost towards the Taliban that raised concerns
about the long-term stability of the state of Pakistan that the Taliban aimed to take

6. advantage of. This measure of state weakness can be related to the theories of Fearon and
Laitin regarding insurgency strength and how well a government is organized. In this
case the Taliban is going to use Pakistan’s state weakness to their advantage by moving
forward with their agenda while the government is in disarray. The Taliban will be able
to strengthen its forces before the government finds out what happened.
The Taliban has increasingly strengthened its forces in Pakistan’s Federally
Administered Tribal Areas along the border with Afghanistan and also in the Provincially
Administered Tribal Areas of the Northwest Frontier Province. Islamist figures have
made their way into Pakistan led by Maulana Sufi Mohammad and his son-in-law
Maulana Oazi Fazlullah, they both established a reformist movement called the
Movement for the Enforcement of Islamic Law. This movement embarked on a campaign
of violent unrest that has pressured the Pakistani government to conform to their demands
that included the posting of special religious judges to oversee the local courts for the
enforcement of shariah law. The Islamists have gained control of many different
Pakistani provinces throughout the Swat Valley region by using violence to manipulate
and coerce the government into allowing them to establish their own local governments
while disregarding the constitution. “Sufi Mohammad and Fazlullah were exposed as
being entirely insincere, effectively using negotiations with the government as a ruse to
paper over their contempt for the constitution and their push to seize power by
force”(Nelson). This movement has effectively been able to create an Islamic court
system based on the enforcement of shariah law at the local government level, which has
provided the Taliban with a safe haven to conduct terrorist operations. “The Pakistani
public at large was provided with an opportunity to assess the Pakistani Taliban

7. movements apparent intentions of never laying down its arms en route to enforcing its
own understanding of shariah”(Nelson).
Islamic insurgency groups have been patronized by the Pakistani government of their
partnerships in pursuing Pakistan’s objectives in Afghanistan and India. Since then many
of these insurgency groups have defected and have begun to target the Pakistani state
because of its support for the American war on terror. These anti-Pakistani militants
formed under the banner of the Taliban Movement of Pakistan, which has ties to anti-
Shia sectarian groups such as the Soldiers of the Sahaba and the Army of Jhangvi that
draws it support from the Assembly of Islamic Clergy. Their goal is to undermine
Pakistani law and establish micro-emirates of shariah law within specific provinces
throughout the country. The Taliban Movement of Pakistan is guilty of launching attacks
on Pakistan’s military, police, intelligence, civilian officials, and infrastructure. This
militant group also targets non-aligned religious sects that represent a more moderate
interpretation of Islam. Instead of trying to ultimately defeat these insurgency groups,
Pakistan’s military has been appeasing them through various peace deals, which only
allows them to keep operating within the country.
Pakistan’s intelligence agency (ISI) does little to nothing in trying to deter the
insurgency movement because they believe that these groups can be used in Pakistan’s
fight against India and in managing Afghanistan’s internal affairs. Civilians, serving
soldiers, and officers in Pakistan’s armed forces have facilitated many of the various high
level attacks on Pakistan’s military facilities and personnel. The military’s reluctant effort
to effectively stop the growing insurgency movement within Pakistan has caused these
groups to progress throughout the country and wage war on anyone opposed to their

8. message. The Pakistani Taliban Movement and their forty comprised militant groups
have aggressively proposed and enforced shariah law in several provinces within
Pakistan that are met with horrific consequences if not obeyed. This was the case when
the insurgents shot a fourteen year-old female education activist in the Swat Valley for
her recognizable stance against shariah law. These actions have put Pakistan’s citizens in
fear for their life that if they do not conform to these laws then they will be killed because
the Pakistani government is not pursuing any action to combat this growing problem,
which is sending the country into chaos.
The Pakistani Taliban Movement is also targeting the country’s educational system
because of its opposition to the prevailing system for women’s education. The insurgents
have damaged and destroyed at least ninety-six school buildings as of 2012. The
insurgent movement caused the destruction of these schools for the sole reason of making
sure the general public is not properly educated so they will not be able to form an
opinion or think for themselves. Instead of teaching math and science, the insurgents
insist that young boys are to be taught at a madrasah, which only offers religious
instruction. The insurgents that infiltrate these madrasah’s espouse extremist ideologies
such as a radical form of jihad, which urges young boys to fulfill their spiritual obligation
by fighting against the Pakistani government or Muslims of other sects while women are
excluded from education altogether. The international community can stop this spread of
cultural violence by helping to strengthen Pakistan’s secular education system. Rather
than sending money to the Pakistani government, which is often diverted through
corruption, public and private assistance should be used in the form of non-fundable
goods and services such as books, teachers, buildings, and training. If the Pakistani

9. government does not do more to stop the infiltration of the Taliban movement then the
country will slowly succumb to more violence as the insurgents grow stronger while the
military becomes weaker, which would bring the country into the onset of a civil war.
Intolerance
There is a great divide in Pakistan among the different religious groups that are
intolerable of one another based on their beliefs. The absence of a strong set of ethics and
principals makes these groups vulnerable to increased violence. None of these groups
display the will to compromise or respect the other point of view. A great deal of
intolerance comes from the religious division between moderate/secular and fundamental
interpretations of Islam. Hard line fundamentalists like the Taliban do not refer to
themselves as terrorists, anti-state, or enemies of Islam, but instead they believe that they
are interpreting the correct and purist form of Islam that true Muslims should be
following. The fundamentalists portray themselves as the purifiers of the nation and if all
Pakistani citizens follow the shariah in a particular manner then society will be pure and
free from the deviant elements that corrupt a nation.
The rejection of the fundamentalist’s claims comes at a price in which they are
severely intolerable towards Muslims who practice a more moderate/secular
interpretation of Islam. It is not uncommon in Pakistan to become the victim of an
assassination by speaking out and being vocal about military action against the
fundamentalists. “Their latest high profile victim has been a well-known and well-
respected scholar who was killed in his seminary by a teenage suicide bomber. This vocal
scholar had supported the military action underway against the Taliban and had issued a
fatwa that suicide attacks were un-Islamic”(Zaidi). Moderate/secular Muslims in Pakistan

10. have always been willing to have an open dialogue with the fundamental Muslims
through a compromise about the respect over each group’s beliefs. The fundamentalists
are reluctant to move from their religious platform because they view a compromise with
the moderate Muslim society as degrading and incomprehensible to their faith. This
measure of intolerance has caused the moderate Muslim population in Pakistan to live in
a state of fear over their condemnation against the Taliban and their fundamental
interpretation of Islam. “They dug out bodies from graves and hung these already dead
bodies in public squares in some towns in the Swat region to teach other Muslims a
lesson”(Zaidi).
Pakistan has also had an emergence of intolerance from the two dominant Islamic
Sunni and Shia religious sects as well as increased violence against the Christian minority
and individuals who are opposed to the country’s existing blasphemy laws. Ethnic
violence is still persistent in Pakistan’s tribal regions as the military and insurgents try to
control their sovereignty. Sunni and Shia intolerance is derived from a heavily contested
question in Pakistan that asks, just who speaks for Islam? Both religious sects have their
own platforms concerning their origins and historical linkage as to who is the closest
descendents to the Prophet Mohammad. Sectarian violence has escalated between the two
sects were at least 375 Shias have been killed as of 2012. This is an increase from the
Sunni/Shia attacks that were committed in the 1990’s. Sunni and Shia extremism has
increased in the Kurram Agency, which is a tribal Pushtun region that has a significant
Shia population. The influx of Afghan refugees has increased the numbers of Sunnis
residing in the region, which has resorted to both sects fighting each other. The local

11. Taliban has aggravated the situation by supporting Sunni against Shias, which has
resulted in hundreds of deaths between the two religious sects.
Local government officials are being targeted for wanting to reform Pakistan’s flawed
blasphemy laws and showing tolerance towards Christians. This was the case in which a
Punjab Governor was killed for advocating blasphemy law reform and publicly
suggesting that President Zardari pardon a Christian woman who has been sentenced to
death. In a similar incident, Pakistan’s Minister of Minorities Shahbaz Bhatti, who is a
Christian himself, was shot dead while the killer of Punjab’s Governor was celebrated
throughout the country as a hero. Both of these murders expose the growing threat of
intolerance towards religious minorities and the lack of ethics and principals that are
supposed to unite a country. The allegations of breaking blasphemy laws can often result
into violent mobilizations targeting religious minorities, which was the case in Islamabad
when a young girl was accused of desecrating the Quran that sparked a violent reaction
from a crowd that caused a neighborhood of Christians to flee for fear of reprisals.
Pakistan faces another challenge to intolerance by its violent rivalries against different
ethnic tribal groups throughout the region. Pakistan’s Balochistan Province continues to
be a challenge to violence and inter-ethnic carnage. For years the Balochistan ethnic
majority has been trying to gain its independence from Pakistan as a federal structure.
Pakistan’s military has responded to their political mobilization with lethal force.
“Hundreds of activists were subjected to forced disappearances while many were killed
and their bodies dumped and others still remain unaccounted for”(Fair). Without official
recalcitrance and impunity, there are few hopes that Balochistan’s ethnic community will
ever see peace and security in the region. This measure of ethnic violence can be related

12. to the case study on Sri Lanka were the Tamils were fighting the Sinhalese government
for their ethnic autonomy. In this case the Balochistani’s represent the Tamils who want
their independence from Pakistan who represent the Sinhalese and in the end the
government suppresses the Balochistani people the same way it did the Tamils.
The Pushtun ethnic group from Pakistan’s North West Frontier Province has also been
subjected to intolerance by the invading Taliban movement. The Pushtun ethnic majority
is comprised of a secular nationalist culture and society that has resented any influence
from the Taliban. The Pakistani Taliban Movement is not the outgrowths of traditional
Pushtun ethnonationalism. The insurgents are attempting to impose their own brand of
Islam on the ethnic Pushtun people. The Pushtun’s stand united for peace, but the Taliban
have brought war to their land in which the Pushtun’s are forced to fight for their
sovereignty or become ethnically cleansed by the insurgents. This epidemic of social
intolerance against different religious and ethnic groups is deteriorating any remaining
foundations of ethics and principals within Pakistan’s society. If this intolerance
continues and if these groups cannot get past their differences and come to some sort of a
compromise then Pakistan as a country will be heading down a road to civil war instead
of peace and prosperity.

13. Annotated Bibliography
Fair, Christine C. “Pakistan in 2010: Flooding, Government Inefficiency, and Continued
Insurgency.” Asian Survey 51 (2011): 97-110. JSTOR. Web. 23 Apr. 2013.
The Taliban Movement of Pakistan emerged in the country after their ouster from
Afghanistan. This article helped identity the insurgency group and their significant goals
of undermining Pakistani law and creating shariah law in specific provinces throughout
the country.
Fair, Christine C. “Pakistan 2011: Ten Years of the “War on Terror.” Asian Survey 52
(2012): 100-113. JSTOR. Web. Apr. 2013.
The Pakistani Taliban consists of different militant groups within the insurgency that
harbor the same ideology and goals. This article highlighted what groups the insurgents
attack and how the military and intelligence services are unwilling to defeat the militants.
This article also had information about the ethnic violence in the Balochistan province
and the killings of religious minorities.
Ghufran, Nasreen. “Pushtun Ethnonationalism and the Taliban Insurgency in the North
West Frontier Province of Pakistan.” Asian Survey 49 (2009): 1092-1114. JSTOR.
Web. 26 Apr. 2013.
The Pakistani Taliban have forced their way into the North West Frontier Province and
the Federally Administered Tribal Area regions of Pakistan with the goal of establishing
Talibanization onto the Pushtun people. This article shows how the Pushtun people have
been resistant towards a non-ethnic entity like the Taliban who invaded their land and
push their brand of Islam on an ethnic group who are socially and culturally diverse.

14. Hasan, Parvez, Fateh M. Chaudhri, Eatzaz Ahmad. “Pakistan’s Debt Problem: It’s
Changing Nature and Growing Gravity.” Pakistan Development Review 38 (1999):
435-470. JSTOR. Web. 23 Apr. 2013.
Pakistan’s economy is virtually non-existent when compared to the economies of other
developing nations. This article examined how Pakistan’s past leadership helped to
contribute to the country’s current debt problem through government spending and
economic sanctions.
Mahmood, Amir, and Mohammed Nishat. “Export Competitiveness and Comparative
Advantage of Pakistan’s Non-Agriculture Production Sectors: Trends and
Analysis.” Pakistan Development Review 43 (2004): 541-561. JSTOR. Web. 23
Apr. 2013.
Pakistan has one of the worst economies in the world due to its failure to pursue an
export growth strategy. This article explained why Pakistan’s economy continues to
erode because of its resilience to export in more technology than relying on textiles to
improve the economy and living standards.
Malik, Anas. “Pakistan in 2012: An Assertive Judiciary in a Pre-Election Year.” Asian
Survey 53 (2013): 34-46. JSTOR. Web. 26 Apr. 2013.
The Pakistani Taliban Movement are responsible for a majority of the violence that is
targeted towards innocent civilians. This article highlights some of the violent incidents
that have occurred in Pakistan at the hands of the Taliban because of religious intolerance
towards a secular society.
Nelson, Matthew J. “Pakistan in 2009: Tackling the Taliban?” Asian Survey 50 (2010):
112-126. JSTOR. Web. 23 Apr. 2013.

15. The growing strength of the Pakistani Taliban has gained a stronghold in Pakistan’s tribal
regions. This article describes the founding leaders of the insurgency movement and their
intent to establish Islamic courts in Pakistan while bypassing the constitution for the
induction of shariah law.
Stern, Jessica. “Pakistan’s Jihad Culture.” Foreign Affairs 79 (2000): 115-126. JSTOR.
Web. 26 Apr. 2013.
The Pakistani Taliban is using its influence to try to control the education system in
Pakistan. This article explains how the Taliban is using the madrasahs to radicalize young
boys into jihad while excluding women from an education.
Zaidi, Akbar S. “Pakistan’s Wars Within Islam.” Economic and Political Weekly 44
(2009): 8-9. JSTOR. Web. 26 Apr. 2013.
The Taliban view themselves as practicing the true teachings of Islam while others are
condemned as portraying a falsified version. This article describes how the Taliban
consider their violent actions towards nonbelievers as legitimate to their cause.