Fuller Symposium Talk on Resilience for more see: stockholmresilience.org regimeshifts.org goodanthropocenes.net

1. Resilience Thinking for a better Anthropocene
WWF Fuller Fund Symposium
Washington DC, United States
November 2016
Professor Garry Peterson
Professor of Environmental Sciences, Stockholm University
Stockholm Resilience Centre
Photo: Yann Arthus-Bertrand

2. A Biosphere shaped by humanity
How can people create a propserous, just, & sustainable world?
Photo: Yann Arthus-Bertrand

3. XKCD

4. Ecological changes produce turbulence
Examples of ecological surprises during the 20th Century
Source: Bennett et al (2003). Frontiers in Ecology and Environment
Biomagnification of toxins
through food chains (i.e.
Mercury & Minamata
Disease emergence in
agricultural landscapes due
to irrigation, and
fertilization
(e.g. River blindness)
The removal of top
predators causing
ecological
instablity & re-
organization
Pests and pathogens
rapidly evolving
resistance to
biocides
(e.g. DDT resistance)
Photos: Paul Grebliunas, Chris Steele-Perkins/Magnum, Govt of Western
Australia, Department of Agriculture & Food, Allison Shelley/Getty

5. Resilience thinking in the Anthropocene:
Resilience can act as an ʻoperating system’ or
framework for living in the anthropocene
It focuses on both sustaining what we want to persist
and building the capacity to adapt or transform into
something better
Image: wallpaperswide.com

6. Governance Social ecological
system
Shock
Change in
Regime 1 Regime 2
a)
b)
Management &
Governance
Analysis
System Structure System Dynamics
Regime Shifts
Social ecological
system
Quinlan, Berbes, Haider & Peterson J. Appl Ecology 2016
Alternative Resilience Strategies
Social-Ecological
Transformation
(Per Olson)
Assessing Social-
Ecological Resilience
Management
With Tipping Points

7. Photo: M KlumPhoto: B Christensen/AzoteImage: B Christensen/Azote
Example - unexpected changes in ecosystems
Diverse coral
dominated reef
(food, tourism,
storm surge
protection)
Algae
dominated reef
(reduced
quantity & less
valuable food)

8. Regime shifts are a feature of complex, self-organizing
systems
Resilience (in this
context) refers to:
The amount of change
that a system can
absorb without shifting
to another set of
mutually reinforcing
structures and
processes
Domain of attraction
for Regime 1
Domain of attraction
for Regime 2
Current
system
state
Critical
threshold
Shock
Regime 1 Regime 2
a)
Regime 2
Shock
Change in
underlying variables
Regime 1 Regime 2
a)
b)
SlowFast
Resilience

9. Peterson & Rocha In Press ARA
Regimeshifts.org
Arctic subject to
19 types of
regime shifts
Primarily driven
by climate
change
With potential to
reshape a wide
variety of
ecosystem
services

10. Longleaf dominated
Oak dominated
historical ‘present’
Longleaf Pine Savannah: an endangered ecosystem
Restoration wildfire not enough (system tipped)
Fire management should: increase fire size, connect patches,
prioritize burning where close to tipping points
projected
Develop strategies to manage resilience of desired & undesired regimes

11. Governance Social ecological
system
Shock
Change in
Regime 1 Regime 2
a)
b)
Management &
Governance
Analysis
System Structure System Dynamics
Regime Shifts
Social ecological
system
Alternative Resilience Strategies
Social-Ecological
Transformation
(Per Olson)
Assessing Social-
Ecological Resilience
Management
With Tipping Points

12. What social-ecological traits
provide resilience within the
Arctic?
25 case studies of collapse,
resilience and transformation

13. Self-organization a key
condition enabling
resilience &
transformation
Arctic colonialism has
often blocked self-
organisation &
reduced diversity
Learning to live with
change and
uncertainty, and
combining different
types of knowledge
for learning also
enhance resilienceArctic Resilience Report

14. Resilience and transformation have been and continue to
be a key part of the life of Arctic people

15. 7 principles of social-ecological resilience
Image: Biggs, Schluter & Schoon eds 2014

16. Governance Social ecological
system
Shock
Change in
Regime 1 Regime 2
a)
b)
Management &
Governance
Analysis
System Structure System Dynamics
Manage slow variables
& feedbacks
Maintain functional &
response diversity
Manage connectivity
Enhance polycentric
governance
Broaden participation
Encourage learning &
experimentation
Foster complex systems
understanding
Social ecological
system
Quinlan et al 2015, Biggs et al 2014
Alternative Resilience Strategies

17. The Anthropocene presents challenges to
social and political thinking
Need global social integration that
Embraces diversity
Supports biosphere
Creates wealth & enhances well-being
21st century likely to be socially surprising
Migration, diasporas
New social identities & social movements
New economics
New media, communication, & stories

18. Three Horizons of Change
1st Horizon
Sustaining innovation
2nd Horizon
Disruptive innovation
3rd Horizon
Transformative innovation
Extent
Time
Developing strategies for each of these horizons can help from the tyranny of present
What are actions?
What is on agenda?
What is thinkable?

19. Seeds of a Good Anthropocene
Image: Simon Stålenhag/SRC
What is a Seed?
An existing organization, business or project on the margins (not
mainstream) that can contribute to a sustainable future
goodanthropocenes.net

20. Seeds Transformation
1. Capturing diversity of Seeds (types, values,
transformation features)
2. New methods of imaging more diverse &
pluralistic social-ecological futures
3. Catalyzing transformation (T-labs+)

21. Trees for Life
Re-wilding Scottish Rainforests

22. Songdo
A Smart City in South Korea
Photo: Yudi

23. Svalbard
Global Seed Vault
Photo: Wikimedia Commons

24. The Seeds of
a Good
Anthropocene
Project
Bennett et al 2016 Frontiersgoodanthropocenes.net

25. Thank you
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www.stockholmresilience.su.se
Photo: O.Henriksson/Azote

26. What is missed by ‛popular’ notions of Resilience
Resilience is not something that should be maximized
Resilience is not something that is “good””
Resilience is:
dynamic
emerges from cross-scale connections
requires embracing uncertainty & enriching diversity
Resilience should be ‘navigated’ rather than optimized
strategies need to change over time
deal with tension & tradeoffs
“Desired” resilience can be enhanced while
“Perverse” resilience can be reduced