2. What if? Skilling Up on Scenario Analysis
for Climate Risk Disclosures
Anjali Marok
Head of Global
Responsibility
Corteva
Josh
Fettes
Senior Consultant
PwC
Shally
Venugopal
Director
Vivid Economics
Amy
Senter
Director
WBCSD

3. From CSR to Sustainability and ESG
Moving from voluntary reporting and "project" requirements to tackling mainstream
sustainability issues and moving towards focused ESG outcomes
Sustainability - Mainstream issues ESG - Focused outcomes
Source: Sustainability is going mainstream, WBCSD (LHS), Examples of ESG criteria used by sustainable
investors, USSIF (RHS)

4. Sustainability is moving from ad-hoc
voluntary to mandatory disclosures
Financial regulators, including the SEC, embed
climate in corporate reporting frameworks, in a
more harmonized way
Government agencies are directly involved
in the market, sending stronger signals to
the business sector

5. TCFD Reference Scenarios for Food,
Agriculture and Forest Products
What gaps are we addressing?
Purpose of the Climate Scenario Tool:
• Provide climate transition scenarios that are relevant and specific
to Food, Agriculture and Forest Products companies
• Allow users to visualize climate scenario data and download full
datasets for use in climate scenario analysis
Understand the range of potential climate transition risks and
opportunities relevant to companies, e.g., dietary shifts, carbon
prices, land use restrictions, innovation, etc.

6. Members of a Corporate Forum guided
development of the scenarios

7. Advisors from leading scientific institutions
and NGOs

10. We developed five scenarios for Food,
Agriculture and Forest Products
High Medium Low
Scenario Scenario description
>3°C Historic Trends Scenario
>3°C Historic Trends represents a scenario in which climate action
remains stable at current levels and the world fails to meet climate
targets, causing a substantial increase in temperature and physical risk, but
low levels of transition risk (lack of action).
<2°C Coordinated Policy Scenario <2°C Coordinated Policy Scenario is a scenario where timely policy and
regulation work to curb emissions in an orderly fashion.
<2°C Forecast Policy Scenario (IPR) Under <2°C Forecast Policy Scenario (IPR), climate action is
disorderly and delayed to 2025-2030.The sudden implementation of GHG
prices and area protection regulation result in higher transition risks.
1.5°C Societal Transformation
Scenario
1.5°C Societal Transformation Scenario represents strong, coordinated
and prompt global policy action, as well as market responses (e.g. diet
shifts and lower food waste) that result in widespread carbon pricing and
land protection to enable decarbonisation and limited physical impacts of
climate change.
1.5°C Innovation Scenario
Note: Temperature targets are indicative as we do not model sectors outside land use
Under 1.5°C Innovation Scenario, large demands from the energy
system for bioenergy (with CCS) coupled with greater-than-historic
yield growth in agriculture and government support for R&D enables early
decarbonisation and limited physical impacts of climate change.
Temperature increase

11. Anjali Marok
Head of Global
Responsibility
Corteva
Panel discussion:
Applying Scenario Analysis
Josh
Fettes
Senior Consultant
PwC
Shally
Venugopal
Director
Vivid Economics
Amy
Senter
Director
WBCSD
MODERATOR

12. Closing questions
1. Do you have a better understanding of scenario analysis and
how the scenarios described in this session could help your
organization?
2. Based on what you learned in this session, could you see your
organization using scenarios at some point in the future?

13. Launch Webinar
Join us for the launch webinar to gain access and learn more about the Climate Scenario Tool
November 29, 11am – 12pm ET
Visit the link to register:
For more information about
the Climate Scenario Tool,
contact whisnant@wbcsd.org

14. Appendix

15. Scenario outputs cover 22 commodities
and 18 regions
Animal Products Forestry
Crops
Rice
Temperate Cereals
Tropical Cereals
Cotton Seed
Groundnuts
Oilpalms
Other Oil Crops including
Rapeseed
Maize Soybean
Sunflower
Sugar beet
Sugar cane
Tropical Roots
Fruits Vegetables Nuts
Potatoes
Pulses
Eggs
Dairy
Monogastric Meat
Ruminant Meat
Poultry Meat
Timber (directionally
informing pulpwood)

16. Scenarios offer 15 outputs covering market
sizing, land use, and environment
Environment
 Prices (% change relative to 2020)
 Total Production and Share of Global
Production within a specific region (Mt
DM/yr)
 Yield growth within a specific region (Mt
DM/ha)
 Market size (% change relative to 2020)
 Net Forest Loss (Mha)
 CO2 (Mt CO2e)
 CH4 (Mt CO2e)
 N2O (Mt CO2e)
 Forest Carbon Stocks (Mt CO2e)
Land use change by:
 Forest, in Million hectares (Mha)
 Cropland (Mha)
 Pastures and Rangeland (Mha)
 Urban Area (Mha)
 Other Land (Mha)
1. We focus on regions with approximately 5% share of global production because estimates for very small markets are less reliable in the model
Land Use
Market Sizing & Yield Growth1
Available for the 18 Regions, 22 Commodities Available for the 18 Regions Only

17. The scenario development process
involved six steps, including expert input
Example
2. Synthesis Analyzed feedback and addressed key comments Expanded crop coverage, but excluded fertilizer and
water consumption
1. Initial design feedback Gathered feedback from Corporate Forum and
Technical Advisory Group
Noted 200+ comments from companies and experts
3. Scenario refinement Refined the scenarios where feasible and
prioritized future work
Changed bioenergy production in 2050 for 1.5°C
scenarios to align with IPCC AR6
5. Smoothing Smoothed unreasonable spikes in future values Harmonized historical and modelled data to avoid
inflection in 2020
4. Sense-checking Checked results against existing sources to
ensure values are aligned to the real world
Compared model projections for soybean production
against FAO data
6. Syndication Tested key model outputs with stakeholders Tested outputs with the Technical Advisory Group
Scenario Design
Scenario Modeling
and QA
Action

18. Example 1: comparing soybean production
in US and Brazil
Scenarios with less meat demand and more 2nd generation
biofuels result in lower soybean production
Soybean production in selected markets
60
0
2020
50
40
20
40
80
30 45 2050
25
10
30
70
35
20
80
25
2020 40
0
30 2050
40
60
100
35 45
10
30
50
90
70
Brazil
USA
>3⁰C Historic Trends
2⁰C Coordinated Policy 1.5⁰C Societal Transformation
2⁰C Forecast Policy (IPR)
1.5⁰C Innovation
Mt DM per year
Demand remains similar to today due to soybeans’ versatile
use as feed, food and biofuel
Demand remains similar to today due to an increase in soy
production for biofuels and alt. proteins coupled with a
decrease in soy production for animal feed
Production falls in Brazil due to a shift towards on 2nd
generation bioenergy production and a slight decline in
animal feed demand, but remains constant in the US as an
increase in biofuel production and alt. proteins balances the
decrease in animal feed production
Production decreases due to a high decline in animal feed
demand and a shift towards 2nd generation bioenergy
production
1.5⁰C Innovation
1.5⁰C Societal
Transformation
>3⁰C Historic
Trends
<2°C Coordinated
Policy
<2⁰C Forecast
Policy (IPR)
Scenarios
Scenario-specific values and rationale
GHG
Prices
Input
efficiency
Diet
shifts
Protected
areas1
Food waste
reductions
Bioenergy
pathway
Yield-
enhancing tech

19. Example 2: palm oil in Southeast Asia
Output per area must increase to ensure a stable supply while
reducing the impact of agriculture on the environment
1.5⁰C Innovation
1.5⁰C Societal
Transformation
>3⁰C Historic
Trends
<2°C Coordinated
Policy
<2⁰C Forecast
Policy (IPR)
Scenarios
Scenario-specific values and rationale
GHG
Prices
Input
efficiency
Diet
shifts
Protected
areas1
Food waste
reductions
Bioenergy
pathway
Yield-
enhancing tech
Demand for vegetable oils for food and fuel
production keeps growing with population
Food waste reduction decreases palm oil demand.
High carbon prices lower production incentives for
palm oil around tropical rainforests.
Food waste reduction reduces overall food demand.
A shift in demand away from livestock products
increases demand for plant-based products.
Demand from plant-based products keeps palm oil
demand high, until it is eventually offset by lower
food waste. Ambitious area protection impose
additional production constraints.
2050
2020 30
25
350
35
0
40 45
100
200
300
400
500
50
150
250
450
550
Oil palm in Southeast Asia
Production (Mt DM per year)

20. Example 3: livestock demand is impacted
by diet shifts and GHG pricing
Change in livestock demand (2020 = 100)
90
30
2020 25 2050
35 40
80
110
45
100
120
High ambition diet shift Medium ambition diet shift No diet shift
-2%
Demand change
2020-2050
+18% Market share of alternative
protein remains constant at
current levels.
R&D and policy incentives, such
as carbon pricing, lead to taste
and cost parity for alternative
protein before 2050, thereby
increasing consumption
-12% Policy incentives and behavioral
shifts increase consumption
above the levels seen in the
Innovation scenario.
Rationale
Scenario
<2⁰C Forecast
Policy (IPR)
<2°C Coordinated
Policy
1.5⁰C Innovation
>3⁰C Historic
Trends
1.5⁰C Societal
Transformation
2050
40 45
25
2020 35
30
0
50
100
150
<2°C Forecast Policy Scenario (IPR) - high-income economies
<2°C Forecast Policy Scenario (IPR) - emerging and developing economies
1.5⁰C Innovation
1.5⁰C Societal
Transformation
>3⁰C Historic
Trends
<2°C Coordinated
Policy
<2⁰C Forecast
Policy (IPR)
Value in 2050 Rationale
Scenarios
$115
<$3
$75 (pricing begins today)
$65 (emerging/developing)
$110 (high-income)
A GHG price is implemented today and
rises to $115/ ton CO2e by 2050, which
is the amount needed to limit climate
change to under 2⁰C of warming
Global GHG price remains the same as
today (forestry sector excluded)
A global GHG price is implemented
today and rises to the amount
necessary to limit climate change to 2⁰C
of warming by 2050
A GHG price is implemented in 2025
and rises to 1.50C levels in developed
countries

21. What are the use cases of the tool?
Engagement & Education
Reporting & disclosure
Strategic adaptation & resilience
Starting point for financial impact
Public & policy engagement
Scenario analysis enables us to explore possible futures, understand goalposts, and assess risks and opportunities.
The foundational use case for the tool enables users to engage and educate key stakeholders with varying degrees of
background knowledge on the importance and value of undertaking scenario analysis.

22. Anjali Marok
Head of Global
Responsibility
Corteva
Hearing from a business user: Corteva