A comprehensive presentation about the climate crisis, and the available solutions. Updated on September 19th, 2016. Guy Dauncey is a futurist who works to develop a positive vision of a sustainable future, and to translate that vision into action. He lives on Vancouver Island, in Canada. He is founder of the BC Sustainable Energy Association, co-founder of the Victoria Car Share Cooperative, and the author or co-author of ten books, including The Climate Challenge: 101 Solutions to Global Warming and most recently Journey to the Future: A Better World Is Possible. He is an Honorary Member of the Planning Institute of BC, a Fellow of the Findhorn Foundation in Scotland, and a Fellow of the Royal Society for the Arts, founded in Britain in 1754. His websites are www.earthfuture.com, www.journeytothefuture.ca and www.thepracticalutopian.ca.

1. September 2016
Guy Dauncey

2. Guy Dauncey is a futurist who works to develop a
positive vision of a sustainable future, and to
translate that vision into action. He lives on
Vancouver Island, in Canada.
He is founder of the BC Sustainable Energy
Association, co-founder of the Victoria Car Share
Cooperative, and the author or co-author of ten
books, including The Climate Challenge: 101
Solutions to Global Warming and
Journey to the Future: A Better World Is Possible.
He is an Honorary Member of the Planning
Institute of BC, a Fellow of the Findhorn
Foundation in Scotland, and a Fellow of the Royal
Society for the Arts, founded in Britain in 1754.
(Old photo. Add ten years.)
www.earthfuture.com
www.journeytothefuture.ca
www.thepracticalutopian.ca

3. A NOTE TO TUTORS
If you are using the slides to teach
a course, please note that the first
200 are mostly about the
problem; the rest are about the
solutions.
So be sure to time yourself. If
students only get the “OMG” side,
they may become alarmed and
depressed. People need the
solutions too, to understand that
change is possible.
Including discussion, the full
presentation needs 3-5 hours.

5. Guy Dauncey 2016
www.earthfuture.com
www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey
This whole presentation is available on
Many thanks to everyone whose photos and images I have used.
Permission is granted to use these slides in courses and lectures.

6. Things have come a long way since the
beginning of the Universe…

7. Guy Dauncey 2015
www.earthfuture.com

14. Guy Dauncey 2011
www.earthfuture.com©Smithore Dreamstime.com
But we have also come to this…

15. Vancouver Island, British Columbia

16. Guy Dauncey 2015
www.earthfuture.comVancouver Island, British Columbia

17. Guy Dauncey 2014
www.earthfuture.com
We used to be so proud,
how we could conquer nature.

18. Vancouver Island, British Columbia

20. World Population: 7.4 billion
Increasing by 200,000 a day

21. World Population: 7.4 billion
Increasing by 200,000 a day
Hopefully
stabilizing
at 11 billion
by AD 2100,
then declining

22. Extinctions
Human
population

24. 'Insatiable' by Theodore Bolha

27. This is a gif –
Give it a
moment to
kick in
This is a gif –
Give it a
moment to
kick in
Simulated global Temperature Change 1850-2100

29. 2000

30. 2009

31. Guy Dauncey 2015
www.earthfuture.com
How to Understand the Climate Crisis
in 10 Easy Steps

32. Guy Dauncey 2015
www.earthfuture.com
How to Understand the Climate Crisis
in 10 Easy Steps
1. Earth has a very thin
atmosphere, which traps heat,
protecting us from being roasted
by day and frozen by night.

33. Guy Dauncey 2015
www.earthfuture.com
How to Understand the Climate Crisis
in 10 Easy Steps
2. There are two important
greenhouse gases that trap heat in
the atmosphere, keeping us warm:
water vapor and
carbon dioxide

34. Greenhouse gases trap the Sun’s heat, and give us warmth

35. Guy Dauncey 2015
www.earthfuture.com
How to Understand the Climate Crisis
in 10 Easy Steps
3. When there is very low water vapor and
carbon dioxide, Earth enters an Ice Age

36. The future British Columbia during the last Ice Age

37. How to Understand the Climate Crisis
in 10 Easy Steps
Ice ageIce age
Over 700,000 years, carbon dioxide (blue) and
temperature (red) tracked each other very closely.

38. How to Understand the Climate Crisis
in 10 Easy Steps
Ice ageIce age

39. How to Understand the Climate Crisis
in 10 Easy Steps
Ice
age
Ice
age

40. How to Understand the Climate Crisis
in 10 Easy Steps
The last 10,000 years

41. How to Understand the Climate Crisis
in 10 Easy Steps
The last 150 years,
burning fossil fuels
& deforestation

42. Guy Dauncey 2015
www.earthfuture.com
How to Understand the Climate Crisis
in 10 Easy Steps
4. The fossil fuels that power our world
come from ancient fossil carbon

43. Guy Dauncey 2015
www.earthfuture.com
How to Understand the Climate Crisis
in 10 Easy Steps
4. The fossil fuels that power our world
come from ancient fossil carbon

44. Guy Dauncey 2015
www.earthfuture.com
How to Understand the Climate Crisis
in 10 Easy Steps
4. The fossil fuels that power our world
come from ancient fossil carbon

45. Guy Dauncey 2015
www.earthfuture.com
How to Understand the Climate Crisis
in 10 Easy Steps
4. The fossil fuels that power our world
come from ancient fossil carbon

46. Guy Dauncey 2015
www.earthfuture.com
How to Understand the Climate Crisis
in 10 Easy Steps
4.
4. The fossil fuels that power our world
come from ancient fossil carbon

47. Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Coal = ancient solar energy

48. Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
As we burn the fossil fuels…
Guy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007
www.earthfuture.comwww.earthfuture.com
5. When we burn fossil fuels, we release their
ancient carbon into the atmosphere

49. 27% of the carbon is going into the ocean,
where it is increasing acidity,
poisoning shellfish and corals

50. Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
6. When we destroy forests, we release their
carbon into the atmosphere
How to Understand the Climate Crisis
in 10 Easy Steps

51. How to Understand the Climate Crisis
in 10 Easy Steps

52. Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
7. The livestock industry – meat & dairy –
is causing 15% of global warming
How to Understand the Climate Crisis
in 10 Easy Steps

53. Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
8. All this extra carbon traps heat,
causing global warming
How to Understand the Climate Crisis
in 10 Easy Steps

54. Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Methane, nitrous oxide and CFCs
also trap heat
How to Understand the Climate Crisis
in 10 Easy Steps

58. Fort McMurray, Summer 2016

59. Where the heat is going

60. Guy Dauncey 2015
www.earthfuture.com
How to Understand the Climate Crisis
in 10 Easy Steps
9. When there is too much CO2
Earth warms, oceans warm, ice
melts, and the sea level rises

62. The last time the world was 3C warmer,
the sea level was 25 metres higher.

63. 2 metres
10 metres
18 metres
25 metres

64. The Guardian, March 22, 2016

65. Vancouver 2 Metres Sea-Level Rise

66. Vancouver 4 Metres Sea-Level Rise

67. Vancouver 6 Metres Sea-Level Rise

68. Vancouver 20 Metres Sea-Level Rise

69. 2-metre sea-level rise
Every beach on the planet … GONE

72. September
February
Arctic Sea-Ice Decline, 1979-2029

74. If global warming exceeds
1.6°C
up to
31%
of Earth’s species
will be committed to
extinction,
having nowhere to go
to escape the rising heat

76. 10. We need urgent and rapid change
to end these harmful historical habits,
and build a green, sustainable future
How to Understand the Climate Crisis
in 10 Easy Steps

77. The four human causes
of the climate crisis

78. The four human causes
of the climate crisis
1. Burning fossil fuels

79. The four human causes
of the climate crisis
1. Burning fossil fuels
2. Eating meat, dairy

80. The four human causes
of the climate crisis
1. Burning fossil fuels
2. Eating meat, dairy
3. Destroying forests

81. The four human causes
of the climate crisis
1. Burning fossil fuels
2. Eating meat, dairy
3. Destroying forests
4. Destructive economy

82. Global Anthropogenic
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
2004. (Source IPCC)

95. Why do people really deny
the climate science?
1. If people come to believe it’s true, it will threaten our
corporate profits from fossil fuels.
2. I don’t like big government, and if it was true,
governments would have to act, and they’d need more
powers, so I believe it’s all a government plot.
3. I am a confident, well-educated older male, and I think I
know how the world works. I don’t like being wrong, and
I really don’t like tree-huggers telling me I’m wrong.
4. I’m very comfortable, and I don’t like change - and this
climate thing has got change written all over it.

96. Seven great climate websites

97. www.skepticalscience.com

98. www.theguardian.com

99. thinkprogress.org/climate

100. www.climatechangenews.com

101. insideclimatenews.org

102. www.climatecentral.org

103. cleantechnica.com

104. www.bcsea.org/
green-economy

105. Pause for
Climate Science Discussion

106. The five fundamental solutions
to the climate crisis
tithe climate crisis

107. The five fundamental solutions
to the climate crisis
tithe climate crisis
1. 100% renewable energy

108. The five fundamental solutions
to the climate crisis
tithe climate crisis
1. 100% renewable energy
2. Phase out industrial meat

109. The five fundamental solutions
to the climate crisis
tithe climate crisis
1. 100% renewable energy
2. Phase out industrial meat
3. Restore Earth’s forests

110. The five fundamental solutions
to the climate crisis
tithe climate crisis
1. 100% renewable energy
2. Phase out industrial meat
3. Restore Earth’s forests
4. Eco-sequestrate carbon

111. The five fundamental solutions
to the climate crisis
tithe climate crisis
1. 100% renewable energy
2. Phase out industrial meat
3. Restore Earth’s forests
4. Eco-sequestrate carbon
5. A restorative economy

112. Five minutes of
Climate Math…

113. 1750 Atmospheric carbon 2016
560 Gt 807 Gt
260 ppm 407 ppm
350 ppm = 700 Gt

114. 10 GT
45%
27%
27%
Where the
carbon is
going

115. Carbon added to the atmosphere
every year. 45% of 10 Gt = 4.5 Gt
4.5 GT of carbon

116. 2°C

117. 2°C is the boundary between
‘dangerous’ and ‘very dangerous.’
James Hansen, NASA Chief Climate Scientist
2°C is the boundary between
‘dangerous’ and ‘very dangerous.’
James Hansen, NASA Chief Climate Scientist

123. 2012

124. 493GT
2015

125. 304GT
2020

126. 104GT
2025

127. 0
2030

130. Potsdam Institute

131. The Paris Climate Agreement
Great
Collapse
Great
Transition

133. A Global Carbon Cap
A firm global cap
on fossil fuel emissions,
agreed to by all nations,
motivated by real alarm,
and a clear positive vision
of a future green
economy.
By 2015, a global cap of
493 Gt of future CO2

134. for a 75% chance
that the global temperature will not rise by 2°C
The 2015
Global Carbon Budget
493Gigatonnes of CO2

135. = a 25% chance
that we’ll crash right through the 2°C barrier
The 2015
Global Carbon Budget
493Gigatonnes of CO2

136. Canada’s
Other Greenhouse Gases
Methane
Nitrous Oxide
The F Gases
Also all to zero by 2040

137. Canada’s 2015
CO2 emissions
500Megatonnes of CO2

138. Canada’s share
of global emissions
1.25%
The Non-Equity Model,
divided by current emissions
The Non-Equity Model,
divided by current emissions

139. How long
will the budget
last?

140. Annual
reduction in
CO2
emissions
% of
Canada’s
2015
emissions
Year by when
zero
emissions is
achieved
Mt of CO2
released
before before
reaching
zero
Achieved
emissions
reduction
below the
2015 level
Year by when
6,000 Mt
carbon budget
is exhausted
5 Mt 1 2113 24,715 13% 2028
10 Mt 2 2064 12,420 28% 2029
15 Mt 3 2049 8,545 63% 2030
20 Mt 4 2041 6,500 72% 2033
25 Mt 5 2035 5,250 100% n/a
33 Mt 6.6 2030 3,995 100% n/a
50 Mt 10 2025 2,750 100% n/a
CANADA’S CHOICES

141. Canada’s
Annual CO2 Reduction
25
Mt of CO2

142. Zero
By 2040

145. Starting today

146. Starting 2020

147. End
Deforestation
1.51.5
Gigatonnes of carbon
a year

148. Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
The livestock industry – meat & dairy –
is causing 15% of global warming

149. Who,
- me?
Who,
- me?

150. Me?Me?

151. Why so big?
N2O from manure
Methane from manure
Methane from
anaerobic digestion
(burping)US Data
Each molecule of methane traps 34 x more heat
than CO2 over 100 years; 84 x more over 20 years.

153. Here’s the
small print on
GHGs from
livestock.
Livestock’s
Long Shadow.
FAO, 2006.
= 14=18%

156. Under discussion in Denmark

163. National Carbon Caps
1. Each nation is allocated a cap, agreed by
negotiation.
2. Every producer or importer of fossil fuels bids for
a permit in a national annual auction.
3. The auction puts a price on carbon and brings
income to the government.

164. Fossil fuels importedFossil fuels imported
Fossil fuels extractedFossil fuels extracted

165. An Annual Fossil Fuel Permits AuctionAn Annual Fossil Fuel Permits Auction

166. The Race to ZeroThe Race to Zero

167. = The Race to a Clean
Green Economy
= The Race to a Clean
Green Economy

168. 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Every year
5-10% CO2 reduction

169. 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Every year
renewable energy
increase

170. Each year, 25 Mt CO2 fewer permitsEach year, 25 Mt CO2 fewer permits

171. Denmark

172. Denmark

173. Carbon rationing,
for individuals and businesses
Carbon rationing,
for individuals and businesses

174. Carbon rationing,
for individuals and businesses
Carbon rationing,
for individuals and businesses

177. Year 1: eg 5 tonnes CO2 (average per person)
Year 2: less 5-10%, etc
+ A Carbon Exchange
to buy and sell rations

178. Business Carbon Rationing

185. Not everyone wants this – it’s a struggle

186. L
N
G
=
Leave it
N the
Ground
Why? The climate crisis, the salmon,
the eelgrass, the Tsimshian, the Haida…
Lelu Island
Skeena Estuary

193. The Ten Most Important
Climate Action Clusters
1. Promote climate leadership, engagement,
education and adaptation

194. The Ten Most Important
Climate Action Clusters
2. Create targets, policies and regulations to achieve
100% renewable energy for electricity by 2030

195. The Ten Most Important
Climate Action Clusters
3. Create targets, policies and regulations to achieve
a transition to sustainable transportation

196. The Ten Most Important
Climate Action Clusters
4. Create targets, policies and regulations to achieve
a transition to sustainable buildings

197. The Ten Most Important
Climate Action Clusters
5. Put an annually increasing effective
price on carbon

198. The Ten Most Important
Climate Action Clusters
6. Build a green, cooperative, caring,
entrepreneurial economy for the 21st century

199. The Ten Most Important
Climate Action Clusters
7. Create targets, policies and regulations
to reduce fossil fuel industry emissions
and leave most fossil fuels in the ground

200. The Ten Most Important
Climate Action Clusters
8. Create targets, policies and regulations to help
Canada’s emissions-intensive industries reduce their
emissions and shift to 100% renewable energy

201. The Ten Most Important
Climate Action Clusters
9. Create targets, policies and regulations to help
Canada’s farmers, ranchers and foresters to reduce
their emissions and sequestrate carbon

202. The Ten Most Important
Climate Action Clusters
10. Work with other nations
to accelerate global progress

203. 65%
of British Columbians want a commitment to
phase out coal, oil and gas, replacing them
with renewable energy.
Oracle Poll, November 2015

204. 73 %
of British Columbians want to see a legally
enforced cap or limits on carbon pollution.
Oracle Poll, November 2015

205. 75%
of British Columbians think protecting the
climate is more important than building
pipelines and further developing the tar sands.
Oracle Poll, November 2015

206. 92%of British Columbians
want to see a plan
to develop jobs in
the renewable energy
sector.
Oracle Poll, November 2015

209. So how are
we going to
do this?
So how are
we going to
do this?

210. It will take everyone – you, me,
non-profits, schools, colleges,
governments, businesses, banks,
- and global cooperation

211. GREENHOUSE
GASES

212. GREENHOUSE
GASES
THE CAUSES
FOSSIL FUELS in
•TRANSPORTATION
•ELECTRICITY
•INDUSTRY
•HEAT
MEAT & DAIRY
DEFORESTATION
CONVENTIONAL FARMING
METHANE, F GASES
CARBON LOSS
EXTRACTIVE ECONOMY

213. GREENHOUSE
GASES
THE SOLUTIONS
100% RENEWABLE ENERGY in
•TRANSPORTATION
•ELECTRICITY
•INDUSTRY
•HEAT
LESS MEAT & DAIRY
SUSTAINABLE FORESTRY
ORGANIC FARMING
REDUCED METHANE
ECOSEQUESTRATION
RESTORATIVE ECONOMY

214. GREENHOUSE
GASES

215. LEARN
EDUCATE
ACT
DREAM
PUBLIC, YOU & ME,
SCHOOLS, NGOs
GREENHOUSE
GASES

216. INNOVATION
NEW
SUPPORT
POLICIES
INCENTIVES
R& D
ECO-INVESTMENT
ECONOM
JOBS
GOVERNMENTS
BUSINESS
GREENHOUSE
GASES

217. FLEXIBLE
REGULATIONS
CARBON
PRICING
GREENHOUSE
GASES

218. FLEXIBLE
REGULATIONS
GREENHOUSE
GASES
This way needs a price of $200 a tonne by 2030
(Is Win-Win Possible? Mark Jaccard et al, 2016)

219. For example:
•Revenue-neutral carbon tax, rising each year, balanced by
tax reductions
•Revenue positive carbon tax, income to climate solutions
•Carbon fee and dividend, everyone gets an annual cheque
•Carbon cap-and-trade, caps for industry, trading for carbon
allowances

220. CARBON
PRICING
GREENHOUSE
GASES
This way gets needs far lower carbon pricing

221. For example:
•Auto-emissions – eg zero emissions (eg all EVs) by 2030
•Electricity – eg zero coal-fired by 2025, gas-fired by 2030
•Low carbon fuel standard applied to freight
•Biofuel sustainability regulations, incl upstream emissions
•Industry – declining GHGs emissions per unit of output,
exemptions for export-vulnerable industries
•Coal, oil and gas production emissions caps
•All new buildings energy net-zero (Passive House) by 2025
•All condos mandatory efficiency audits and retrofits

222. LEARN
EDUCATE
ACT
DREAM
INNOVATION
NEW
SUPPORT
POLICIES
INCENTIVES
R& D
ECO-INVESTMENT
ECONOMY
JOBS
PUBLIC, YOU & ME,
SCHOOLS, NGOs
GOVERNMENTS
BUSINESS
GREENHOUSE
GASES
CARBON
PRICING
FLEXIBLE
REGULATIONS
Climate Action - Putting it all together

223. Pause for Discussion

225. The visions we offer our children shape the future.
It matters what those visions are.
– Carl Sagan, 1934-1996

226. The Motivating
Power of Vision

227. Think of the Age of Fossil Fuels as the
LAUNCH RAMP
for the Solar Age
30,000 years
Firewood
300 years
Fossil Fuels
Science
Engineering
Enlightenment
Two billion years
Solar Energy

228. The Sun will not begin to turn
into a Red Giant for more than
a billion years,
and with every passing year,
solar technologies will improve
and fall in price.

229. Neolithic Era
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
The last 10,000 yearsThe last 10,000 years

230. Neolithic Era
Ancient Egypt
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
The last 10,000 yearsThe last 10,000 years

231. Neolithic Era
Ancient Egypt
Roman Empire
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
The last 10,000 yearsThe last 10,000 years

232. Neolithic Era
Ancient Egypt
Roman Empire
Islamic Golden Age
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
The Age of Fossil Fuels
The last 10,000 yearsThe last 10,000 years

233. Neolithic Era
Ancient Egypt
Roman Empire
Islamic Golden Age
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
The Age of Fossil Fuels
……………………………………….
The next
1,000,000,000 years
The next
1,000,000,000 years
The Solar Age

234. Farewell and Thank
You, Fossil Fuels
Welcome,
Solar Age!

238. CITY OF VICTORIA
just voted to go
100% RENEWABLE

240. Oslo voted to slash emissions 95% by 2030

242. Mark Carney,
Governor, Bank of England
“Climate change initiatives offer a
$5-7 trillion funding opportunity
for capital markets.”

244. HOW MANY
FOSSIL FUEL
JOBS
WILL END?
HOW MANY
NEW JOBS
WILL BE
CREATED?

245. Almost Twice as Many
Green Jobs in Canada
By Guy Dauncey
800,000 fossil fuel jobs lost
1,000,000 green energy jobs gained

246. Guy Dauncey 2015
www.earthfuture.com
Direct
Jobs
Induced
Jobs
Indirect
Jobs

247. Direct Job: Installing Solar

248. Indirect Job: Making Solar

249. Guy Dauncey 2015
www.earthfuture.com
Induced Job:
Spending Solar Earnings
Solar worker
Farmer
$$$

251. Guy Dauncey 2015
www.earthfuture.com
Canada has 555,000 direct and
indirect jobs in fossil fuels

252. Guy Dauncey 2015
www.earthfuture.com
If phased out by 2040: 22,000 jobs
disappear each year.
If phased out by 2050: 16,000 jobs
disappear each year.
555,000
Direct and Indirect
Fossil Fuel Jobs

253. Guy Dauncey 2015
www.earthfuture.com
Where will the new jobs be?
1.Renewable Electricity
2.Building Retrofits
3.Railway Electrification
4.Cycling
5.Electric Vehicles
6.Transit
7.Farming
If by 2040:
Can they create 22,000 new jobs a year?
If by 2050:
Can they create 16,000 new jobs year?

255. www.ironandearth.org

257. TRANSPORTATION
An organized plan to shift all modes of transport
to 100% renewable energy by 2040

258. TRANSPORTATION WITHOUT FOSSIL FUELS

259. Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com

261. 3-D pavement art, Sichuan, China

263. Metro do Porto, Portugal

264. Downtown streets

265. www.restreets.org
Downtown streets

266. Suburban streets

267. Suburban streets

268. Hamburg Autobahn, Germany

269. The road will run under the green space

276. Community Celebration – the oldest tradition

278. Neighbourhood Tool-Sharing

279. www.cityrepair.org

280. Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.comPortland, Oregon www.CityRepair.org

289. Neighbours in the Gorge area of Victoria got
together to learn about resilience and improve their
street. This used to be a boring concrete wall.

290. The Bicycle - a Romance in 10 Acts
Act 1: Love

291. Act 2: Marriage

292. Act 3: Sperm Donation

293. Act 4: Kids!

294. Act 5: More Kids!

295. In Odense, Denmark,
5-Year-Olds Bike to School on their Own
Act 6: To School!

296. Act 7: All the Neighbours’ Kids

297. Act 8: The Safe Commute to Work

298. Act 9: Shopping

300. Act 10: Retirement

302. Act 11: Old Age

303. Act 12: The End

305. Solar electric bike, top speed 48 km/hr

308. The Copenhagen Wheel

312. The Veemo, Vancouver, 2016
Electric bike-car
www.velometro.com

318. Seville Bike Lane
Spain

319. Copenhagen Bicycle-Bridge

320. Solar bike lane, South Korea

321. The Hovenring Bicycle Bridge, Holland
Connects Eindhoven and Veldhoven

322. Melkweg (‘Milky Way’) Bike and pedestrian bridge
Purmerend, Holland

324. A possible future Granville Street Bridge, Vancouver

326. 10,000 lives could be saved and 76,600 job opportunities
created if people in major European cities cycled
as much as they do in Copenhagen.
World Health Organization, 2014

327. 655,000 people work in cycling in the EU, most in cycle
tourism. If cycling’s modal share were doubled, more
than 400,000 new jobs could be created.
Cycling has a higher employment intensity per million of
turnover than other transport sectors.

331. Guy Dauncey 2015
www.earthfuture.com
Cycling Economy Jobs
1% cycling trip share 4,000 jobs
25% cycling trip share 103,000 jobs

332. Guy Dauncey 2015
www.earthfuture.com
Year 1 Year 25
1% Trip Share 160 jobs 4,000 jobs
25% Trip Share 4,000 jobs 103,000 jobs
12.5% Trip Share 2,000 jobs 50,000 jobs

333. Barcelona is moving ALL buses to
100% electric by 2020

335. Los Angeles BYD Articulated Electric Bus
170 miles range

336. Australian/Chinese Brighsun Bus
1027 km on one charge
(no passengers. 500 km when full)

337. Curitiba, Brazil

338. Elevated transit bus, under development in China

339. Imagine – tables on buses
common in Europe

341. The Pilot: real-time in-ear translations
in French, Spanish, Italian, and English

342. Bio-methane from Bristol's sewage
treatment (UK) 300 km on a tank of gas.

343. Well-to-wheel, biomethane produces
95% less CO2 than diesel

344. Transit Expansion Jobs
Installation Jobs Operational Jobs
Year 1 28,000 13,000
Year 25 28,000 338,000
Extrapolated for all of urban Canada from the
Metro Vancouver Mayors’ Transportation Plan

345. Build-Them-Ourselves Bus Shelters

350. Real-time electronic bus stops

351. Car sharing - Car2Go
How many members in Vancouver?

352. Car sharing - Car2Go
100,000 members in Vancouver

353. Provincial and national goals and incentives
for EV uptake.

354. Top
Hiroko EV in northern Spain

355. Top
Same car – it folds up!

356. EV and Hybrid EV sales in Norway
pass 30% market share

357. Norway’s Transport Plan assumes that electric cars
could have 100% share of new car sales by 2025.

358. India is working on a plan
to make every car electric by 2030,
self-financed by the savings on gas.

359. Almost 400,000 advance orders have been
placed for the new US $35,000 Tesla Model 3.
320 kilometres range

360. Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Honda solar electric car charging

361. Smart grid solar-powered charging station
York University Faculty of Environmental Studies

362. Image of future charging lane in England

366. 2nd
hand Nissan Leaf: $17,000
www.motorizevictoria.ca

369. The Falling Price of EV Lithium Batteries
2018

370. The falling price of EV batteries

373. From 2025, all BMWs to be electric

374. By 2025, Holland is preparing to ban the
purchase of gas and diesel cars

376. Honda’s EV Battery Recycling Plant, Japan

377. Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Electric Cars: The $$ spent on electricity
stays in Canada
1,000  25,000 new Induced Jobs

378. I M A G I N E
An Electric Vehicles
Climate Solutions Treaty
40 nations agree to
A Zero Emissions Standard
for all new cars by 2025
All light trucks by 2030

379. Electric Highways for Trucks, Sweden

380. 40 ton truck, 100 km range, 3-4 hours recharge

381. Swiss E-Force 18 tonne electric truck
300 km range
80–110 kWh per 100 km at highway speed

382. Future Nicola One 2000 HP electric truck
CNG hybrid. Driving range 800-1200 miles
per tank. www.nikolamotor.com

383. Future Scania electric truck,
recharging by an inductive roadway.

384. Future railways
electric, 100% renewable energy

385. Guy Dauncey 2015
www.earthfuture.com
Railway Electrification
50,000 kilometres
14,000 jobs a year

386. In France, the TGV railway has formed a
partnership with the Louvre Art Gallery

387. 3M graphic film

392. Norway’s Electric Ferry ZeroCat
5.7 km route, 20 minute round trip

393. Long-Distance Trucking: nothing ready yet

394. Long-Distance Shipping : nothing ready yet

395. The Wind Challenger, University of Tokyo

396. The Energy Observer
Solar, wind, & onboard hydrogen from electrolysis

397. Aviation: nothing ready yet

398. Millennium Airship

399. Airbus E-Fan. 100% electric.

400. Solar Impulse. 100% solar electric.

401. Air pollution - gone

402. Pause for Transportation Discussion

403. ELECTRICITY
A Federal Clean Energy Plan
Help the provinces to close down all coal-fired power plants
by 2025, all gas-fired power plants by 2040

404. More solar energy reaches Earth in an hour
than humans use in a year.

405. Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com

406. Area needed – totally theoretically – for
all of Earth’s power to be met by solar PV

408. Price of
Solar Module
per Watt
1977: $77
1997: $7
2013: $0.7

409. 100 GW
in 2012
Solar PV 140-fold increase
since 2000
200 GW
in 2014

412. Mass production = falling prices

414. Solar on a Condo, Victoria, BC
www.bcsea.org/solar-on-strata

415. Average BC home electricity per year
Using baseboard heat: 20,000 kWh
Using gas heat: 11,000 kWh
LED lights, super efficient: 5,000 kWh
4 kW solar system: 4,400 kWh

416. Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
4 kW PV System
$3.50 to $4 per watt
$14-16,000 + tax
4,400 kWh year

417. Solar Economics in BC (1)
4 kW @ $4.00 per watt
13 cents kwh, 3% per year hydro increase
3% finance
4 kW + tax $16,800
3% finance $24,000
kWh per year 4,400
Hydro savings pa $572 and rising
Cost per year $960

418. Solar Economics in BC (1)
4 kW @ $4.00 per watt
13 cents kwh, 3% per year hydro increase
3% finance
Cost per year $960
Savings per year 2016: $572
2020: $695
2025: $887
2030: $1132

419. Solar Economics in BC (2)
4 kW @ $2.70 per watt
13 cents kwh, 3% per year hydro increase
3% finance
4 kW + tax $11,340
3% finance $16,200
kWh per year 4,400
Hydro savings pa $572 and rising
Cost per year $648

420. Solar Economics in BC (2)
4 kW @ $2.70 per watt
13 cents kwh, 3% per year hydro increase
3% finance
Cost per year: $648
Savings per year 2016: $572
2020: $695
2025: $887
2030: $1132

421. Average EV: 18 kWh per 100 km
20,000 km = 3,600 kWh a year
3,600 kWh a year = 3.3 kW PV

422. Vauban, Freiburg, Germany

423. Somewhere in Germany
(or Austria)

424. Dubai Sustainable City

425. Nelson’s Community Solar Garden

426. BCIT Energy Oasis, Burnaby, BC
250 kw, 500-kWh Li-ion Batteries
2 DC Fast Charge stations
Sophisticated energy-management system (EMS)

427. 21 kW. The money saved goes into
Climate and Renewable Energy scholarships
for the students

428. Solar Stadium, Taiwan

429. Floating Solar in England.
They clip together, like Lego

430. The world’s largest floating solar
Queen Elizabeth II reservoir, Walton-on-Thames, England
23,046 solar panels, 6.3 MW

431. 13.7MW plant on the Yamakura Dam reservoir

434. Thin-film Solar PV

435. Solar Shingles

440. China’s share of solar module
and wind turbine manufacturers

441. 3 cents kwh 3.6 cents kwh

442. Pause for Solar Discussion

447. “We’ve got to stop them! Those wind
turbines are killing birds.”

448. Reality

449. Reality

450. Reality

451. Tidal Energy Plant, South Korea

452. Proposed Tidal Lagoon, Swansea, Wales

453. Guy Dauncey 2015
www.earthfuture.com
Installation Operation/Maintenance
Per Year Year 1 Year 25
Solar 101,000 1,700 42,000
Wind 29,000 700 15,000
Geothermal 15,000 600 14,000
TOTAL 145,000 3,000 71,000

454. Guy Dauncey 2015
www.earthfuture.com
Canada Electricity Demand 2014
511 TWh
Canada Electricity Demand 2040
750 TWh
Canada Renewable Electricity 2013
330 TWh
New Renewables Needed by 2040
420 TWh

455. Pause for General
Renewable Energy Discussion

456. BUILDINGS
Zero emissions for all new buildings starting in 2020.
Zero emissions from existing buildings by 2040.
Nationwide program to retrofit every building
for energy efficiency and renewable energy.

457. Guy Dauncey 2015
www.earthfuture.comBuilding Energy Retrofits

458. Guy Dauncey 2015
www.earthfuture.com
Building Retrofit Jobs
90% of
buildings
$ investment
per building
$
billion per
year
Jobs per
year
Residential 11,250,000 $10,000 $4.5 67,500
C & I 432,000 $50,000 $1.7 25,500
Total 93,000
Total, assuming 90% of buildings
93,000 jobs a year

459. Canada, population 35 million
500
6.6 73,000 26,000
Canada-wide
1.75
A very approximate sense of Canada’s gain
blog.floridaenergycenter.org

460. Passive Houses, Victoria
90% reduced heat loss

461. Passive House, Victoria, B.C.
90% less heat energy, 15 kwh/m2
, 4.4% more cost
www.bernhardtpassive.com

463. Brussels, Belgium
Since 2015, all new buildings and retrofits are
required to be Nearly-Zero Energy,
based on the Passive House Standard.

464. Stockholm, 80,000 apartments
heat from treated sewage

465. Vancouver Olympic Village
Sewage-Based District Heat

467. Drake Landing, Okotoks, Alberta
Stored Solar Thermal Heat

468. Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.comOkotoks, Alberta – Solar Heating

469. 800 solar hot water panels on the garages

470. Energy Centre
Community solar
Thermal panels
90% solar heating throughout the
cold Alberta winter

471. Marstal, on the Danish island of Aero
100% solar district heat + 23.4 MWth solar thermal storage
+ Biomass cogeneration plant
Stored Solar District Heat

472. Six Sources of Renewable Heat
Air-source heat Ground-source heat Stored solar heat
Biomass/Biogas Heat exchange ventilator Dog-source heat

473. Where cars dominates, people connect less.
Less sense of neighbourhood.
Less mutual support.

474. With people-inspired urban design, people connect.
More sense of neighbourhood.
More mutual support.

480. Semiahmoo Transit Station Surrey
www.greenovergrey.com

481. Semiahmoo Transit Station Surrey
www.greenovergrey.com

482. REGEN Danish village, 100 homes being built
summer 2016. EFFEKT Architects

484. Energy positive homes. High-yield organic food production.
Mixed renewable energy and storage. Water and waste
recycling. Empowerment of local communities.

485. EFFEKT
www.effekt.dk/work#/regenvillages

486. Pause for Buildings Discussion

487. INDUSTRY
Improve energy efficiency,
replace coal and gas with biomass or hydrogen.

488. Industrial Heat: No coal substitutes yet

489. ALBERTA OIL SANDS
Plan Zero by 2040 into all NEB decisions.
Freeze production at current level.
Deny licenses for all new pipelines.
Close down the last oil sands operation by 2040.
Firm up requirements for boreal forest restoration.

490. FOOD AND FARMING
Organic farming everywhere

491. Organic yields match conventional yields.
Organic outperforms conventional in years of drought.
Organic farming uses 45% less energy.Conventional systems
produce 40% more greenhouse gases.Organic farming is
more profitable than conventional.
Rodale Institute, 30-year trials.

492. A Local Food Economy

497. Brooklyn School Edible Schoolyard

498. Brooklyn School Edible Schoolyard

499. Brooklyn School Edible Schoolyard

500. All organic farms protect their bees

501. Using small-scale intensive organic horticulture,
farmers can earn $50,000 an acre,
50% costs, 50% income

503. Pause for Food & Farming
Discussion

504. The five fundamental solutions
to the climate crisis
tithe climate crisis
1. 100% renewable energy
2. No more industrial meat
3. Restore Earth’s forests
4. Eco-sequestrate carbon
5. A restorative economy

505. The five fundamental solutions
to the climate crisis
tothe climate crisis
1. 100% renewable energy
2. No more industrial meat
3. Restore Earth’s forests
4. Eco-sequestrate carbon
5. A restorative economy

507. Atmospheric carbon in 1750
560 Gt
260 ppm

508. Atmospheric carbon in 2016
560 Gt 807 Gt
260 ppm 407 ppm

509. Atmospheric carbon in 2016
560 Gt 807 Gt
260 ppm 407 ppm
350 ppm = 700 Gt

510. Atmospheric carbon in 2016
807 Gt
700 Gt

511. Sustainable
ForestryOrganic
Farming
New
Ranching

512. Sustainable
Forestry

513. In the Pacific Northwest, at its maximum, a 160-year
rotation cycle will store 590 tonnes of carbon per hectare,
compared to 363 tonnes in a 490-year cycle.

514. In the Pacific Northwest, at its maximum, a 160-year
rotation cycle will store 590 tonnes of carbon per hectare,
compared to 363 tonnes in a 490-year cycle.
+ 1 Gt of carbon a year

516. Zero-till, conservation farming and organic
farming could sequestrate 50 GT of carbon
from the atmosphere. - Rattan Lal

517. Zero-till, conservation farming and organic
farming could sequestrate 50 GT of carbon
from the atmosphere. - Rattan Lal
+ 1.5 Gt of carbon a year

519. + 2 Gt of carbon a year

520. 3 Gt a year for 33 years = 100 Gt
Needs the whole world to do it, by treaty

521. Pause for Eco-Sequestration
Discussion

522. The transition from a capitalist economy
to a green, entrepreneurial cooperative economy
could be one of the defining achievements
of the 21st
century.

523. Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com

524. Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
GDP =
Gross
Depletion
of the
Planet

525. Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Gross
Depletion
of the
Planet
Why?
To raise cattle,
to make hamburgers

526. Green Business Certification

527. Benefit Corporations

528. Public Banking

529. $15 Minimum wage

530. Basic Income Guarantee

531. Measuring General Provincial Happiness
as well as Gross Domestic Product

532. Abolish Every Tax Haven

536. Climate Treaties are essentially voluntary

537. Trade Treaties come with tribunals,
bringing huge penalties and costs.

538. Chapter 11 allows corporations to sue governments
if they feel they have not been treated as a domestic
company would be treated.

539. After Obama rejected the Keystone Pipeline,
TransCanada filed a $15 billion lawsuit under NAFTA.

540. Where will the money come from?
1. Private & Utility Investors
2. Carbon taxes and pricing
3. Climate Bonds
4. Public Banking Credit Creation
5. Green Quantitative Easing

541. Pause for New Green Economy
Discussion

543. www.theclimatemobilization.org

545. • Global Carbon Cap

546. • Global Carbon Cap
• National Carbon Caps

547. • Climate Bonds
• Global Carbon Cap
• National Carbon Caps

548. • Climate Bonds
• Carbon Tax
• Global Carbon Cap
• National Carbon Caps

549. • Climate Bonds
• Carbon Tax
• Carbon Rationing
• Global Carbon Cap
• National Carbon Caps

550. • Climate Bonds
• Carbon Tax
• Carbon Rationing
• All new cars EV by 2025
• Global Carbon Cap
• National Carbon Caps

551. • Climate Bonds
• Carbon Tax
• Carbon Rationing
• All new cars EV by 2025
• All new buildings Passive
House standard by 2020
• Global Carbon Cap
• National Carbon Caps

552. • Climate Bonds
• Carbon Tax
• Carbon Rationing
• All new cars EV by 2025
• All new buildings Passive
House standard by 2020
• Widespread local mobilization
• Huge local food initiative
• Global Carbon Cap
• National Carbon Caps

553. • Climate Bonds
• Carbon Tax
• Carbon Rationing
• All new cars EV by 2025
• All new buildings Passive
House standard by 2020
• Widespread local mobilization
• Huge local food initiative
• Tax on meat and dairy
• Global Carbon Cap
• National Carbon Caps

554. • Climate Bonds
• Carbon Tax
• Carbon Rationing
• All new cars EV by 2025
• All new buildings Passive
House standard by 2020
• Widespread local mobilization
• Huge local food initiative
• Tax on meat and dairy
• Solar electrification of railways
• Rapid transition to 100% Renewable Energy
• All coal-fired power plants shut down by 2018
• All gas-fired power plants shut down by 2025
• All fossil fuel exports ended… and a whole lot more
• Global Carbon Cap
• National Carbon Caps

555. • Climate Bonds
• Carbon Tax
• Carbon Rationing
• All new cars EV by 2025
• All new buildings Passive
House standard by 2020
• Widespread local mobilization
• Huge local food initiative
• Tax on meat and dairy
• Solar electrification of railways
• Rapid transition to 100% Renewable Energy
• Global Carbon Cap
• National Carbon Caps

556. • Climate Bonds
• Carbon Tax
• Carbon Rationing
• All new cars EV by 2025
• All new buildings Passive
House standard by 2020
• Widespread local mobilization
• Huge local food initiative
• Tax on meat and dairy
• Solar electrification of railways
• Rapid transition to 100% Renewable Energy
• All coal-fired power plants shut down by 2018
• Global Carbon Cap
• National Carbon Caps

557. • Climate Bonds
• Carbon Tax
• Carbon Rationing
• All new cars EV by 2025
• All new buildings Passive
House standard by 2020
• Widespread local mobilization
• Huge local food initiative
• Tax on meat and dairy
• Solar electrification of railways
• Rapid transition to 100% Renewable Energy
• All coal-fired power plants shut down by 2018
• All gas-fired power plants shut down by 2025
• Global Carbon Cap
• National Carbon Caps

558. • Climate Bonds
• Carbon Price
• Carbon Rationing
• All new cars EV by 2025
• All new buildings Passive
House standard by 2020
• Widespread local mobilization
• Huge local food initiative
• Tax on meat and dairy
• Solar electrification of railways
• Rapid transition to 100% Renewable Energy
• All coal-fired power plants shut down by 2018
• All gas-fired power plants shut down by 2025
• All fossil fuel exports ended… and a whole lot more
• Global Carbon Cap
• National Carbon Caps

559. So what is our future to be?

560. Collapse is
Possible

561. A Great Transition is Possible

562. It’s up to each of us to choose.
And then to act.

565. Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey
www.earthfuture.com